The stock index
The market opened lower and moved higher on Monday. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53%, returning to 3,400 points. The turnover of the two cities expanded to 1,130.4 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. In terms of market structure, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.16%, and the GEM index rose 1.90%. In terms of futures indexes, IF2207 rose 0.74% (basis -23.83 points, expanded 2.31 points from the previous trading day), IH2207 rose 0.32% (basis -17.55 points, narrowed 0.32 points from the previous trading day), IC2207 rose 1.19% (The basis difference was -31.33 points, 5.99 points larger than the previous trading day).
Northbound funds had a total net purchase of 4.501 billion yuan, of which and Shanghai Stock Connect had a net purchase of 1.543 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect had a net purchase of 2.958 billion yuan. The market opened lower and moved higher on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,400 points, facing the annual test above. In terms of Shenwan's primary industries, the agriculture, pharmaceutical, and military sectors led the gains, while the electronics, comprehensive, and computer sectors led the declines.
htmlThe PMI in June returned to the prosperous range, and expectations for fundamental repairs have helped the market continue its upward trend. A shares continue to show resilience relative to overseas markets. Since the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee at the end of April, as the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and the resumption of work and production has continued to deepen, coupled with frequent signals of stable growth from the policy side and relatively loose macro liquidity to stabilize market expectations, A from May to June A-share stocks continued to rebound. Although overseas markets experienced severe fluctuations many times during this period, it did not affect the slope of the A-share rebound.Looking forward to July, U.S. stocks will most likely continue to show a weak and volatile trend amid tightening tightening, high inflation and slowing growth. Since the slope of this round of domestic economic recovery is likely to be slower than in 2020, so The fundamentals and policy cycles of China and the United States continue to have inverse characteristics, and the overall pattern of loose domestic policies will not change. A-shares will still show resilience relative to overseas markets. In the short term, considering that the domestic economy will gradually recover in the future and policies and funds will remain relatively loose, the price center of the A-share market is expected to continue to move upward. However, after the continuous rise in May and June, fluctuations may There has been a slight increase.
Technically, it is not recommended to operate the stock index. You can wait for the opportunity of shorting.
Copper
Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened low at 2208 and fluctuated slightly, closing at 60660 yuan / ton, down 1.57%. In May, the U.S. PCE price index increased by 6.3% year-on-year, expected to be 6.4%; the core PCE price index increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and was expected to be 4.8%. The data fell slightly, but it was still well above the Fed target, and the market was optimistic about the economic recession. Worry is greater, and pessimism suppresses the trend of non-ferrous metals . Previously, negotiations between overseas mining companies and domestic smelters were concluded in the middle of the year, and the processing fee during the year was US$75/ton, implying that although there was disturbance at the mine end, there was no marginal supply shortage; in May, due to the centralized maintenance of smelters, domestic electrolytic copper production has declined. Some smelters have returned from the maintenance period in June, but overall they are still in a period of intensive maintenance, and the increase in output is relatively limited. After the epidemic in Shanghai eased, the market saw a marginal improvement in consumption, but the improvement in consumption was limited. Except for automobiles, other fields entered the seasonal consumption off-season. LME Copper inventories have recently shown a fluctuating accumulation trend, currently rising to a one-month high. The copper weekly inventories on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have increased for five consecutive weeks, and inventory levels have risen to a more than two-month high. However, overall inventories remain at low levels, which provides some support for copper prices.
Technically, Copper does not recommend to buy at the bottom, nor does it recommend operation.
Rebar
On the supply side, institutional data last week showed that the output of building materials continued to decrease, but data from the Steel Federation and Steel Search showed that the output of hot coil increased. Due to poor demand for building materials, steel mills have increased their conversion of molten iron into plate production. Therefore, although blast furnace maintenance has increased, hot coil production has still increased. In addition, as short-process steel mills still suffer serious losses, the output of short-process building materials has continued to decrease recently. In terms of imports, domestic steel billet prices fell yesterday, and steel billet prices in other foreign regions were generally stable. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign steel billets has slightly widened, and the space for steel billet imports has narrowed.
On the demand side, the total social inventory of steel and silver continued to decline on Monday. Institutional data last week also showed that building materials inventory decreased significantly, but hot coil factory inventory still increased. The overall total steel inventory declined, and steel surface demand rebounded. Demand for building materials has increased significantly. As the recent high temperature and rainfall in various places have eased, terminal spot transactions have also improved. However, building materials transactions weakened again on Monday, and the sustainability of demand remains to be seen. However, the June PMI data released last week returned to above 50, showing restorative expansion of the manufacturing industry. In addition, many departments have recently stated that they will ensure stable, healthy and sustainable economic development, and the policy goal of stabilizing growth has been mentioned many times by relevant departments. Domestic macro policy expectations are still positive. In terms of exports, although steel prices in Europe and the United States have continued to fall recently, and steel prices in other regions have also declined to varying degrees, due to the fall in domestic steel prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has expanded slightly. However, foreign market demand is still sluggish, and domestic steel exports are still poor.
Generally speaking, the steel market has recently begun to show a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. On the one hand, steel plants have increased shutdowns for maintenance and maintenance, and the supply of steel has decreased. On the other hand, demand has improved as the weather has eased, and recent macroeconomic policies have continued to Emphasizing stable growth, market expectations have also improved. However, affected by negative feedback from raw materials and declining overseas demand, the short-term steel price trend is volatile.
Technically, the rebar can be supported around the bottom, and the short-term layout is more than single.
On the supply side of iron ore
, global shipments decreased last week, with Australia's shipments decreasing significantly, but Brazil's shipments still increased slightly. However, benefiting from the early rebound in shipments, domestic arrivals at the port increased last week, and superimposed port discharges continued to fall. Recently, iron ore inventories at domestic ports have continued to accumulate. In terms of domestic mining, although the utilization rate of domestic mining capacity has tended to increase after the resumption of work and production, due to the recent decline in mining prices, some mineral processing companies have also begun to suspend production and maintenance due to cost pressures. In the short term, domestic mining output is still difficult to increase and basically maintains the previous level. level.
On the demand side, as steel prices have fallen sharply, steel mills' losses have increased. Since mid-to-late June, steel mills in various places have begun to suspend production for maintenance, and hot metal production has also declined for two consecutive weeks. Yesterday, there was still a lot of steel mill maintenance news in the market , it is expected that molten iron production will decline further in July. Due to the weak purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills, both spot transactions and forward US dollar cargo transactions at the iron ore port decreased yesterday. At present, the profit of PBF landing is still negative, and the landing of super special powder is still profitable, which shows that domestic and foreign markets have high and low product resources. Demand is still divided.
Generally speaking, with the increase in production shutdowns and maintenance of steel mills in various places since mid-to-late June, hot metal production has also continued to decline, and steel mills’ demand for iron ore has weakened; at the same time, benefiting from the peak season momentum, the supply of imported ore has increased recently, and port iron ore has Inventories have also begun to accumulate. The overall iron ore market is showing a weak pattern of increasing supply and demand, and ore prices will also be under pressure to decline.
Technically, iron ore can wait for the opportunity of short selling, and it is not recommended to go long.
crude oil
The main contract of SC crude oil on Monday showed an overall trend of opening low and moving high. It fell slightly in the early trading. The market mentality gradually recovered before noon and resumed its upward trend in the afternoon. It once rose nearly 2% during the session and closed up 1.63%. 716.9 yuan. Macro risks remain.
Due to the decline in U.S. economic growth expectations and the impact of the previous hawkish statement by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on curbing inflation expectations, the market's pessimism about the U.S. economic performance in the second quarter has increased. The current U.S. dollar index has risen to the highest level since 2002. Near the high point. At 2 a.m. this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting and will announce more details about its aggressive interest rate hike of by 575 basis points. Although Biden urged to increase oil supply and OPEC+ approved its original plan to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day in August, a survey released on Friday showed that OPEC failed to live up to its promise and output in June fell below again. Target. Production in June was 28.52 million barrels per day, a decrease of 100,000 barrels from the revised daily production in May. The implementation rate of production reduction increased from 178% in May to 253% in June. OPEC originally planned to increase daily production in June by about 275,000 barrels. Most OPEC members have increased production less than expected, and at the same time, idle production capacity is low, and the overall situation is tight.
Among the 10 OPEC member countries, the one with the largest decline in production was Libya . As Libya was repeatedly affected by force majeure in June, production fell by 170,000 barrels/day month-on-month to 610,000 barrels/day. The second largest decline was 80,000 barrels per day, as production suspension and maintenance limits production in Nigeria. Data show that daily exports fell by at least 100,000 barrels in June. In addition, Norway may also be discontinued. Seventy-four oil workers at the Gudrun, Osebera South and Osebera East offshore platforms owned by Statoil of Norway Eauinor will go on strike starting on July 5, which may reduce Norway's oil production by about 4%. The crude oil supply side remains tense, and the impact on the strong Sensitivity to the U.S. dollar is relatively low.
Technically, crude oil can be patient and wait for opportunities for short sellers.
short fiber
Some quotations from direct-spun polyester staple factories were reduced by 100 yuan in early trading yesterday, and the focus of transactions mostly moved down to the 8300-8500 range. Then the futures opened lower and moved higher, with some low prices gradually rising, downstream purchases increasing, and most production and sales Between 100-300%, average 145%. The basis difference is maintained, Xinfengming supply is 09+500 yuan/ton, Hengyi supply is 09+500 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of 1.4D in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is negotiated at 8,300-8,600 yuan/ton ex-factory or short-term delivery. The mainstream price in Fujian is 8,400-8,650 yuan/ton for short-term delivery in cash. The mainstream price in Shandong and Hebei is 8,400-8,650 yuan/ton.
Short fiber factories will restart many devices before early July. Preliminary statistics are around 800,000 tons. The short fiber load will increase to above 85%, and supply pressure will increase in July. Demand and raw material side fluctuated, polyester yarn temporarily stabilized and consolidated, and sales were average.
Short fiber factories have restarted many devices before early July, and supply is expected to increase, while demand is still weak, but some are willing to purchase and stock up at low prices. At present, due to low inventory in short fiber factories, the near-end is still supported, and the basis is relatively strong. Overall, the short-term pressure on short fiber is not great, but supply and demand are weak. Under the support of the cost end, the space below is limited, and the overall low level is mainly volatile.
Technically, it is not recommended to go long in short fiber, but you can wait for the opportunity to rebound upward and go short.
Soybean meal
According to the quotation of China Grain and Oil Business Network, on July 4, the quotation of soybean meal from oil mills generally fell by 20-100 yuan. Among them, the mainstream quotation of soybean meal from oil mills in Jiangsu was 4000-4050 yuan/ton, with a basis difference from August to September Report m2209+190.
monitoring data shows that as of last Friday, the total soybean inventory of domestic oil plants was 6.398 million tons, a weekly increase of 281,000 tons, and the total soybean meal inventory was 1.033 million tons, a weekly decrease of 19,000 tons.
Brazil’s National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) said that Brazil’s soybean exports in June 2022 may be 10.154 million tons, lower than the 10.795 million tons estimated a week ago. For comparison, the export volume in May was 10.26 million tons, and the export volume in June last year was 10.129 million tons.
Consulting company Datagro raised Brazil's soybean production in 2021/22 to 126.18 million tons, higher than the 124.86 million tons estimated in May. This is a 9.1% decrease from 2021/22, reflecting the damage caused to crops by dry weather in Brazil this season.
Macro market risks are worrying, the commodity market has generally declined, and soybean meal prices have been under pressure. The soybean meal market still needs to pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas, and soybean meal is involved in the short term.
Technically, soybean meal needs to pay attention to the pressure level above and wait for the opportunity to short.
Oils and fats
According to quotations from the China Cereals and Oils Business Network, on July 4, the price of first-level soybean oil traders in Guangdong was 10,360 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis difference in July was reported as y2209+620. In the Guangzhou port area, 24-degree palm oil 11,300 yuan, down 134 yuan; the July basis was reported at p2209+2500.
Indonesia Indonesia proposed to raise palm oil export quotas on Friday and is considering raising the mandatory blending standards for biodiesel in fuel, a senior minister said on Saturday, in a bid to boost farmers amid high domestic palm oil stocks. price.
Indonesia’s ambassador to Pakistan said on Friday that Indonesia’s palm oil supply to Pakistan will be completed by July 10, 2022. So far, five ships have arrived in the port city of Karachi, and five more will arrive on the 10th of this month.
Indonesia announced over the weekend that it will increase palm oil export quotas and consider increasing the mandatory blending level of biodiesel. Malaysia Palm oil exports have slowed down, and its production has accelerated, which will also put certain pressure on prices.
Data released by shipping survey agency SGS on Friday showed that Malaysia’s exports of palm oil products in June were 1,230,997 tons, a decrease of 7.4% from 1,329,186 tons in May. Data from the Southern Malaysia Palm Fruit Manufacturers Association (SPPOMA) shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 17.19% month-on-month between June 1-25.
Indonesia said it is considering raising export quotas to reduce high domestic inventories. The overall market sentiment for oils and fats is pessimistic, and the commodity market has generally declined. It is recommended that soybean oil participate in the short-term.
Technically, palm oil has fallen below the support level , and you can continue to hold early short orders.
Live pigs
The national spot price shot up to 22-24 yuan/kg today.
Number of fertile sows in stock: Yongyi sample point data increased slightly month-on-month in May, and Steel Union also increased slightly. The productivity of fertile sows is generally slower. National Bureau of Statistics data for May is also newly released, with no month-on-month decline. After the spot price of
rose sharply in the past week, all parts of the country have taken turns to rise. The group's sales plan in July is still lower than that in June, and the overall supply has shrunk month-on-month and year-on-year. The market has strong sentiment towards prices continuing to rise. Although the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on leading enterprises yesterday, this is only a regular meeting every year when prices fluctuate. The market may be on the rise amid strong reality and expectations of policy suppression.
Technically, it is not recommended to chase high prices. You can test short positions with a small amount of light positions, and also patiently wait for the opportunity to go long on callbacks.
