On April 15,
data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in March 2022, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with a month-on-month decrease in commercial residential sales prices decreased, and the number of cities with a year-on-year decrease increased;
cities in all tiers The sales price of commercial residential buildings stabilized month-on-month, but fell or increased year-on-year.
Since this year, policies to stabilize the property market have been implemented intensively
. The central government and relevant departments have taken multiple measures to help prevent and resolve real estate market risks and avoid ups and downs in the real estate market. On the other hand, they promote the transformation of the real estate market into a new development model and promote a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the industry. At the same time, local governments have intensified their efforts to implement "city-specific policies" and introduced a number of measures including relaxing purchase restrictions and sales restrictions. Experts said that the current real estate market sentiment still needs to be boosted, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, which are under great pressure.
70 City housing prices dropped month-on-month, cities decreased
Year-on-year decrease, cities increased
From a month-on-month perspective, In March, the prices of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities both increased, but the increases were both lower than the previous month.. Specifically, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the increase fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen rising by 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, and Guangzhou falling by 0.1%; second-hand housing prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month. It rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou increased by 1.2%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while Shenzhen fell by 0.3%.
Compared with first-tier cities, second-tier and third-tier cities house prices have remained flat or declined month-on-month, but the decline has narrowed . Among them, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities was unchanged from the previous month, while the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 0.1% from the previous month, and the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.2% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
From a year-on-year perspective, housing prices in first-tier cities are still rising, but the increase has slowed down . Housing prices in second-tier and third-tier cities have slightly increased or decreased year-on-year, showing a trend of falling growth or expanding decline. Specifically, in March, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities increased by 4.3% and 2.8% respectively year-on-year, with the increases falling by 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing decreased by 0.2% from a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in the previous month. The sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.6% and 1.9% respectively year-on-year, and the declines expanded by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
reporters noticed that in March, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing fell in 38 and 45 cities respectively, 2 and 12 less than last month; in the cities with year-on-year declines, respectively 29 and 47, an increase of 5 and 8 respectively from the previous month.
Banks in more than 100 cities have lowered mortgage interest rates
In addition to housing prices, mortgage interest rates and down payment situations in various places also affect the "nerves" of every home buyer. In recent times, banks in some cities have lowered personal housing loan interest rates, and some regions have lowered down payment ratios. The interest rates for first home loans in many places have returned to the "4" era.
On April 14, Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, introduced at the first quarter of 2022 financial statistics press conference that the recent reduction in mortgage interest rates mainly occurred at the bank level. Since March, due to weakening market demand, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have voluntarily lowered mortgage interest rates based on market changes and their own operating conditions, with the average range ranging from 20 to 60 basis points.. In addition, some provincial market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanisms also cooperate with the regulatory requirements of local governments. Based on the actual situation of the city and within the scope of national policies, the lower limit of the city's down payment ratio and the lower limit of the interest rate have been lowered. This is a differentiated and market-oriented adjustment made by the city government and banks based on the market situation and their own business strategies, adapting to the characteristics of regional differences in the real estate market.
It is understood that my country's personal housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios follow the principle of city-specific policies and adopt a three-tier pricing mechanism at the national, city and bank levels.At present, the national first-home loan interest rate shall not be lower than the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the corresponding period, and the second-home loan interest rate shall not be lower than the corresponding period LPR plus 60 basis points. From this point of view, the current mortgage interest rates (more than 5 years) after being lowered by many banks still need to meet the requirements of not less than 4.6% for first home loans and not less than 5.2% for second home loans.
Geng Xinxin, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that personal housing loan interest rates will continue to rise across the country in 2021, and mortgage interest rates in most cities are already at a relatively high level . Since the beginning of this year, many banks in many cities have flexibly lowered mortgage interest rates based on the operation of the local real estate market, which will help further reduce the loan repayment burden of home buyers, activate demand for home purchases, and drive market transactions to rebound.
It is worth noting that bank lending has also significantly accelerated . Compared with the second half of last year, when the time limit for mortgage loans was often two to three months, the phenomenon of "waiting for a loan" among home buyers has been alleviated this year. According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, the average loan cycle in 103 cities in March was about one month, close to the fastest rate in the third quarter of 2020.
Policies to stabilize the property market have continued to provide benefits.
Since this year, the central government has repeatedly emphasized supporting reasonable housing demand, preventing and defusing risks for real estate companies, and promoting a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry. Relevant departments have also actively expressed their stance and introduced a package of measures to send a "stability" signal. .
At the same time, "city-specific policies" policies have been intensively implemented in various regions to increase support for the real estate market . According to incomplete statistics, more than 60 cities issued real estate-related policies more than 100 times in the first quarter, including relaxing purchase restrictions, canceling sales restrictions, and issuing home purchase subsidies and other aspects. Entering April, policies to support home purchases are still coming from various places. Among the cities that have introduced regulatory policies, there are many first-tier cities such as Shanghai and strong second-tier cities such as Suzhou and Nanjing. Among them, starting from April 12, Suzhou’s second-hand house sales restriction policy has been changed from 5 years to 3 years; the transfer period for new houses remains unchanged, and no transfer is allowed within 3 years from the date of obtaining the real estate certificate. The Management Committee of Shanghai Lingang New Area has recently adjusted its talent housing policy, changing the "House Purchase Qualification Confirmation Letter" to the "Talent Housing Policy Confirmation Letter". The validity period has been adjusted from the original 6 months to 12 months, and the regional working period has been adjusted from 1 year. shortened to 3 months or 6 months.
From the actual effect, the Shell Research Institute pointed out that many places have adjusted regulatory policies according to market needs, and market expectations have been improved to a certain extent. For example, after Zhengzhou, Henan Province issued the "Notice on Promoting a Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" ("Zheng 19 Articles"), the second-hand housing market improved significantly. In March, the average weekly viewing volume increased by 52% month-on-month, and the average weekly transaction volume increased by 52% month-on-month. An increase of 95%. Tang Xiaolin, an analyst at
Dongfang Jincheng Research and Development Department, said that since this year, relevant departments and governments in many places have strictly adhered to the general tone of "housing is for living, not for speculation" and followed "city-specific policies" to "promote a virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry." "" and other principles, through policies such as lowering mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios to alleviate the downward pressure on the real estate industry and steadily promote the orderly resolution of market risks. It is expected that the next step will be to introduce more policy combinations that will help the property market recover and the real estate industry’s virtuous cycle, and to increase implementation efforts.
Talking about the next stage of real estate financial policies, Zou Lan emphasized at the aforementioned press conference that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will continue to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation" and focus on stabilizing land prices and house prices. , Stabilize expected goals, implement city-specific policies, and cooperate with local governments to fulfill their territorial responsibilities to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers.
Source: Financial Times client
Reporter: Xu Beibei
Editor: Yu Jiaxin Yunyang Yang Jingyi
Email: [email protected]
