(Report Producer/Author: GF Securities, Chen Zikun, Ji Chengwei, Cao Ruiyuan)
1. Large-scale promotion of parity process, the development of sea breeze has arrived
(1) Globalization in the sea breeze era, exploiting strengths and avoiding weaknesses to break through constraints
Global sea breeze market in the past ten years It is in a prosperous state and the installed capacity is steadily increasing. Wind power is an important means to achieve the "double carbon" goal. Under the global trend of carbon reduction, the development of the wind power industry is highly certain. According to GWEA data, global new installed capacity of offshore wind power has increased from 1.2GW in 2012 to 22.5GW in 2021. The average annual growth rate has basically remained between 20-30%. We expect the CAGR of new installed capacity from 2022 to 2026. It can reach 37.83%. By 2026, the cumulative installed capacity of global offshore wind power will exceed 145GW, and the development prospects are bright.
Sea breeze installed capacity in European countries has fluctuated slightly, and maritime resource endowments are superior. According to GWEC data, the annual newly installed offshore wind power capacity in various countries fluctuated slightly from 2016 to 2021. The UK and Germany accounted for the majority of the European offshore wind market in 2019 and before. In 2021, the overall newly installed capacity in Europe reached 3.3GW, of which the UK added 3.3GW. The installed capacity is 2.3GW, and the newly installed capacity in other European countries has reached 1.0GW. European Sea Breeze is developing steadily, and we estimate that the new installed capacity in the European market from 2022 to 2026 will be 2.8/5.1/2.4/6.6/11.6GW respectively. According to European Wind Energy Association 2021 statistics, the annual wind power generation reached 458TWh, accounting for 16.4% of the total power generation, of which offshore wind power accounted for 3%. It is estimated that the annual utilization hours of European offshore wind power have reached nearly 4000h, and offshore resources are abundant.
Haifeng’s historical installed capacity in China and around the world has developed flexibly, and the market size will gradually grow in the future. From the perspective of growth trends, the development of sea breeze in China and the world is basically in sync. It is predicted to grow elastically from 2022 to 2025, and the development will become stable after 2026, with the growth rate of new and cumulative capacity basically maintained at 10%-12%. From the perspective of market size, we estimate that China's sea wind's newly installed capacity will reach 16.0GW by 2025. Compared with 2020, China's sea wind's newly installed capacity will have a CAGR of 32.0%, and the cumulative installed capacity will reach 79.0GW; we expect that by 2025, the global The new scale of the Haifeng market reached 35.1GW, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 141.4GW, showing rapid development momentum.
China’s offshore wind energy resources are abundant, and there are levels of strength and weakness among regions. According to the distribution of China's offshore wind energy resources given by the National Climate Center's simulation, China's offshore wind energy resources are very abundant. The four sea areas have the best wind energy resources in the East China Sea, followed by the South China Sea, Bohai Sea, and Yellow Sea. Among all sea areas, the Taiwan Strait has the richest resources, with an average wind speed of more than 8.5m/s and some areas exceeding 9m/s; followed by the south-central coast of Zhejiang, the coast of central-eastern Guangdong and the Liaodong Bay of the Bohai Sea, with average wind speeds of 8m/s. s or above; the average wind speed in other sea areas is mostly above 7.5m/s; the wind energy resources in the northern part of the Beibu Gulf and the central Yellow Sea are relatively average, with the average wind speed between 7-7.5m/s. At the same time, there is no equal relationship between the average wind speed and the maximum wind speed in different sea areas, and the wind conditions have obvious particularities. For example, the first place in the ranking of average wind speed intensity is East China Sea , while the first place in ranking of maximum wind speed intensity is the South China Sea.
Offshore wind power development needs to consider meteorological disaster factors. The existence of natural disasters is a major reason that restricts the development of sea breeze, which will pose certain threats to wind power operation and maintenance, engineering processes, and unit lifespan. Low-intensity tropical cyclones and peripheral circulation can keep wind farms in a "full power" state, but typhoons can cause great damage to wind farms. In addition, the unique meteorological conditions of different regions should also be considered during the construction of wind farms. Problems such as unit corrosion caused by salt spray in the East China Sea and South China Sea , sea breeze resources and risks coexist, and related difficulties need to be solved in a targeted manner.
Sea breeze has many advantages over land breeze. In comparison, Sea Breeze has higher system reliability, stronger environmental protection capabilities, broader resource utilization space, and more favorable wind speed conditions. Offshore wind turbines have a longer service life and a reasonable utilization hours that are about 20% higher than onshore wind turbines. In terms of distribution area and land occupation, offshore wind farm units have lower transmission losses and occupy a smaller area.
There are certain constraints on the development of domestic sea breeze.Due to the long distance offshore and the large changes at sea, it will lead to difficulties in early construction and later maintenance, including corrosion and other losses caused by offshore meteorological disasters to wind farms, difficulty in subsequent maintenance by personnel, and the time it takes to resume operations, etc., which will all have an impact on offshore wind farms. Wind power installation costs and maintenance costs have an important impact and become part of the cost of electricity, restricting the development of sea breeze. According to the CWP Wind Power Review and Outlook 2021 report, China's offshore wind resources are worse than those of European countries, the unit capacity is smaller than the average unit capacity of foreign countries, the production capacity of key components is limited, and the installation and construction equipment are limited, all of which will have an impact on the cost of China's offshore wind power . In the future, in order to further reduce costs and achieve parity, greater efforts still need to be made in technology research and development, manufacturing capabilities, supporting industries, operations and maintenance.
(2) The trend of large-scale wind turbines drives cost reduction, and policies support the development of wind turbines.
The trend of large-scale wind turbines is obvious. According to the CWP Wind Power Review and Outlook 2021 report, in 2020, the single unit capacity of mainstream models of China's offshore wind farms has reached more than 5.0MW (the maximum is 10MW), and the average new unit capacity has reached 4.9MW, an increase of 85% compared with 2010. GWEC predicts that the average power of new offshore wind turbines in the world will reach 11.5MW in 2025. Henrik Stiesdal, a pioneer in global offshore wind power, predicts that the next generation of wind turbines will appear before 2030, with a power of about 20MW, an impeller diameter of 275 meters, and large-scale wind turbines. Trend holds. The cost reduction effect of large-scale offshore wind turbines is significant, and the economics of sea breeze are highlighted. According to Rystad Energy's research project, for a 1GW offshore wind power project, using a 14MW wind turbine will save US$100 million in investment compared to using a 10MW wind turbine. It can be seen that the larger size of the wind turbine will bring about a decrease in the cost of wind power. Judging from the global average installed cost of offshore wind power and changes in LCOE, the trend is opposite to that of wind turbine installed capacity. The installed cost dropped from US$4,706/KW in 2010 to US$3,185/KW in 2020, and LCOE dropped from US$0.215/KWh in 2010. It is 0.085 US dollars/kWh in 2021, and the economics of sea breeze are highlighted.
Multiple national policies have been introduced to guide the development of the sea breeze industry. Starting from 2021, new projects in the sea breeze industry will no longer be included in the scope of central financial subsidies, and subsidies will gradually decline to promote the development of grid parity and implement a market-based competition mechanism for electricity prices. According to wind power headlines, 2021 has entered a new era of parity, the last year of offshore wind power subsidies, and the rush to install wind power has shifted from land to sea. The "Notice of the National Energy Administration on Matters Related to the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021" establishes consumption responsibilities There are three long-term mechanisms: weight guidance mechanism, grid connection multiple guarantee mechanism, and competitive grid connection allocation mechanism. At the end of 2021, "3060" was once again clarified, green finance support policy follow-up, clarified carbon emission requirements, and guided the future development of the sea breeze industry.
The subsidy situation is taking over, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" sea breeze plans of many provinces are clear. The "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Orderly Development of Offshore Wind Power and the Sustainable Development of Related Industries" issued by Guangdong Province is my country's first subsidy policy issued by a local provincial administrative unit. It clarifies that starting from 2022, the Guangdong Provincial Finance will control the provincial-controlled sea areas. Projects that fail to enjoy national subsidies will be provided with investment subsidies, and the grid connection price of the project will be based on our province's coal-fired power generation benchmark price (parity price) to promote a smooth transition from subsidies to parity in project development. Following Guangdong, the deputy director of Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau also made it clear at the press conference of the Shandong Provincial Government Information Office that the provincial finance will provide appropriate subsidies for the "14th Five-Year Plan" offshore wind power projects that will be completed and connected to the grid from 2022 to 2024. .
According to the policies issued by many provinces in 2021, the installed capacity of Haifen during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is clearly planned, with Guangdong 17GW, Shandong 10GW, Jiangsu 9.09GW, Zhejiang 4.5GW, Guangxi 3GW, and Hainan 3GW. The scale of Jiangsu's second environmental impact assessment announcement decreased by 3.03GW compared with the first announcement, and increased by 1.09GW compared with the 2020 planning situation. Guangxi has a total of 7.5GW of offshore wind power plans approved by the National Energy Administration, including 1.8GW for all four sites within the waters under the jurisdiction of the autonomous region. It is required to strive to have all completed and connected to the grid by 2025; outside the waters under the jurisdiction of the autonomous region, 5.7GW will be selected for preliminary development. The work requires striving to build and connect more than 1.2GW to the grid by the end of 2025.Hainan Province has formulated an investment (competitive allocation) plan for offshore wind power projects with 11 offshore wind farms and a total installed capacity of 12.3 million kilowatts in accordance with the "Hainan Province "14th Five-Year Plan" Energy Development Plan" and "Hainan Province Offshore Wind Farm Project Plan".
(3) Economic calculation of offshore wind power
Wind turbine units, wind turbine foundation and construction account for a high proportion of investment in offshore wind projects. The average investment proportion of wind turbine units and installation, wind turbine foundation and construction in Jiangsu, Guangdong and Fujian provinces is 68%, accounting for a relatively high proportion of investment costs. The rest of the investment also includes towers, construction fees, cables, offshore booster stations, onshore centralized control centers, sea (ground) fees and other items. Reducing costs is the key to whether offshore wind power has a competitive advantage. Since the offshore wind power industry chain is long, there is the possibility of cost reduction at each node, thereby further reducing overall costs and risks.
The construction costs of offshore wind power projects have reached a certain level of reduction. According to data from the Polaris Wind Power Grid, the construction cost of offshore wind power projects in 2020 will be 16,550 yuan/kilowatt on average, while the construction cost of the China Resources Power Cangnan #1 offshore wind power project under construction in 2022 will be approximately 12,400 yuan/kilowatt, of which The price of wind turbine (including tower) is 4061 yuan/kW, and the wind turbine foundation and wind turbine installation and construction are 5491 yuan/kW. The total construction cost has dropped by 25% compared with the average level in 2020. The reduction in construction costs has been achieved. Certain results. The calculation formula of
LCOE can be roughly expressed as (present value of construction cost + present value of operation and maintenance cost + present value of financial cost + present value of tax cost )/present value of power generation. Based on the construction cost of China Resources Power Cangnan #1 offshore wind power project, under various assumptions such as an operating scale of 400MW, effective power generation hours of 3000 hours/year, and a discount rate of 5%, the Cangnan #1 project can be obtained The present value of each cost is calculated, and the LCOE is calculated to be approximately 0.57 yuan/kWh.
Large-scale wind turbines can reduce the LCOE of offshore wind power. The enlargement of wind turbines can affect the construction costs, operation and maintenance costs and power generation of offshore wind power projects, thereby causing changes in LCOE. As the capacity of a single unit increases, the investment in components such as towers and wind turbine foundations per unit MW decreases, which reduces construction costs. In addition, since the number of wind turbines required to achieve the target power is reduced, operation and maintenance costs are also reduced accordingly. At the same time, the enlargement of wind turbines will also lead to an increase in power generation. Under the influence of the above links, large-scale wind turbines can ultimately reduce LCOE. By assuming that the megawatt number of wind turbines, the present value of power generation, the present value of construction costs, and the present value of operation and maintenance costs increase or decrease by the same amount under the trend of large-scale expansion, the following table shows the corresponding changes in LCOE under different changes in the number of wind turbine megawatts. Condition.
Power generation is a key factor affecting offshore wind power parity. After conducting a univariate sensitivity analysis on the LCOE of offshore wind power projects, it was found that changes in power generation are the key factors affecting changes in LCOE. An average increase of 1% in the present value of power generation can reduce LCOE by 0.86%. In comparison, an average decrease of 1% in the present value of construction costs and operation and maintenance costs can reduce LCOE by 0.44% and 0.24% respectively.
China will play an important role in the development of global sea breeze in the future. According to GWEC forecast data, Asia ranks first in newly installed capacity in the global sea breeze market in 2026, accounting for almost 50% in Asia, Europe and North America. Looking more closely, China occupies a dominant position in the Asian market and will remain important by 2030. Analyzing the policies of various countries, by the end of 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in Japan is 10GW, South Korea is 12GW, India is 30GW, and the UK is 40GW. There is a gap between the offshore wind scale predicted by China of nearly 60GW. China's renewable energy goal is to reduce the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to 25% in 2030; the installed capacity of wind power and solar energy will exceed 1,200GW in 2030. Driven by policies, China will play a huge role in the development of the sea wind market in the future.
2. Changes in the industrial chain brought about by the trend of large-scale offshore wind power
(1) Large-scale wind turbines guide the main development direction of each industrial chain
The trend of large-scale wind turbines is obvious, and the expansion of cost reduction space promotes an increase in profitability.Among the newly installed capacity from 2008 to 2021, the proportion of large-capacity units continues to increase, and the sales volume of Goldwind Technology 's 3/4S and 6/8S units also increases year by year. According to the "Statistical Briefing on China's Wind Power Hoisting Capacity in 2021" released by CWEA, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of wind turbines of 3.0MW and above accounted for 23.4% of the cumulative installed wind power capacity, an increase of 10.9% from 2020. Large-capacity units can also reduce operation and maintenance costs and wind farm construction costs by reducing the number of installed units. According to Schneider Electric data at the 2021CWP Wind Energy Conference, when the model is upgraded from 2.0MW to 5.0MW, the yield can increase from 4% to 8.6%, and the capacity of typical offshore wind turbines is greater than 5.0MW, so it can bring Higher yield.
Permanent magnet synchronous units are the main unit type for offshore wind power, and the proportion of permanent magnet synchronous unit capacity in my country is on an upward trend. Since the permanent magnet direct-drive unit eliminates the need for a gearbox, reduces losses, and has the advantages of high efficiency, low noise, and strong low-voltage ride-through capabilities, it has been widely used in offshore wind farms and has become a popular choice for deep-sea and large-capacity offshore wind turbines. The mainstream choice. Permanent magnet semi-direct drive units retain the advantages of permanent magnet direct drive units, reduce size and weight, and have higher speeds. They have also begun to be put into commercial operation of offshore wind power. In 2018, China's permanent magnet direct drive and permanent magnet semi-direct drive units accounted for 42% of the newly installed capacity.
The increasing size of wind turbines promotes the trend of tall towers and large blades. The larger size of wind turbines requires taller towers for support. According to data from the Wind Energy Association, the average height of wind turbines in 2018 was 91m, with the highest wind turbine reaching 140m. In 2019, the average height was 96m, with the highest reaching 147m. The height of wind turbines increased year by year. Steady improvement. As a key component of wind turbines, the tower plays an important role in increasing the height of the wind turbine and ensuring the safety of the unit. Among wind turbines with the same power, the diameter of wind turbines shows an increasing trend. The average rotor diameter of 2MW wind turbines increased from 79m in 2007 to 118m in 2018. The large blades of
make the diameter of impeller longer and the sweep area larger, thus increasing the power generation capacity. As the power of offshore wind turbines increases, larger blades are needed to achieve high-power power generation. The B1030A wind turbine blade independently developed by Dongfang Electric is 103 meters long, which is the longest wind turbine blade that has been offline in my country. According to the Polaris Wind Power Grid, the 16MW offshore wind turbine being developed by Mingyang Smart has a blade length of 118 meters, and the international machine manufacturer Vestas will launch an offshore wind turbine with a single power of 15MW and a blade length of 115.5 meters. Currently, China Marine Engineering Group’s H256-16MW offshore wind turbine has the world’s largest wind turbine diameter of 256 meters.
The lightweight blade can bring higher efficiency to its larger size. The increase in blade length causes its weight to increase rapidly. Although the power generation efficiency is improved by increasing the swept area, the increase in weight also increases the load on the main engine and tower. Therefore, lightweighting has become a key development direction for large blades. Among them, length Blades above 100 meters must use carbon fiber materials. carbon fiber is a material with excellent properties such as light weight, high strength, corrosion resistance, and fatigue resistance. Applying it to blades will effectively reduce the blade mass and increase the blade strength in the high-salt and high-humidity environment at sea. The carbon fiber material in the blades can also improve corrosion resistance and adapt to the harsh climate conditions of offshore wind power.
Wind power blades have become the application field with the largest demand for carbon fiber materials. The demand for carbon fiber in wind power blades has increased from 18,000 tons in 2016 to 33,000 tons in 2021. With carbon fiber becoming a rigid demand for 100-meter blades, the large-scale use of carbon fiber in wind power is the general trend. According to data from the "2021 Global Carbon Fiber Composite Materials Market Report", the demand for carbon fiber for wind turbine blades accounts for 28.0% of the total demand, making it the industry with the highest proportion among all carbon fiber application fields. Affected by the rapid development of offshore wind power, carbon fiber companies are also facing new development opportunities. At present, the carbon fiber used in domestic wind turbine blades is mainly produced by foreign manufacturers such as Zoltek. As the domestic carbon fiber technology matures, there is room for domestic substitution.Related companies include Jilin Carbon Valley, Guangwei Composite Materials, Shanghai Petrochemical , and Jilin Chemical Fiber . Among them, Jilin Carbon Valley has various types of carbon fiber raw fiber series products, with an annual production capacity of 65,500 tons, and a production capacity of 20,000 tons under construction. , expected to be completed in mid-2022.
There are still problems in the large-scale application of carbon fiber. In the future, domestic carbon fiber will need to interact with the wind power industry. There has been pressure to reduce costs in the offshore wind power industry, where subsidies have been declining. The economics of carbon fiber will play an important role in the future development of blades. However, the current supply of carbon fiber cannot cover demand, and prices are rising. According to Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group's statement at the 2021 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference, the price of carbon fiber will increase by approximately 50% in 2021, which reflects the instability of batch supply of carbon fiber. The current application demand for carbon fiber in wind power blades provides a good opportunity for the carbon fiber industry. If the batch supply of carbon fiber can form a good interaction with the batch application of the wind power industry in the future, it will help the common development of the two industries. (Source of the report: Future Think Tank)
(2) The location of offshore wind power is in the deep sea, and the economics of flexible DC transmission are reflected.
Offshore resources are gradually saturated, and the location of offshore wind power in the deep sea has become the development direction of offshore wind power. Offshore wind power is gradually advancing in accordance with the development path of intertidal wind farms, offshore wind farms, and far-reaching offshore wind farms. At present, the vast majority of offshore wind farms built at home and abroad are offshore wind farms. However, offshore wind power will be restricted by increasingly stringent environmental protection and ecological arrangements, and the development space will be squeezed; while the deep sea has a wider range, richer wind energy resources, and lower wind speeds. more stable. Establishing wind farms in deep-water and offshore areas can make full use of more abundant wind energy resources without adversely affecting waterway resources and coastal industrial production.
The increase in offshore wind power distance will increase the transmission distance of submarine cable , which will drive the usage of submarine cables to further increase. Cables used in offshore wind power mainly include cables for offshore wind turbines, cables for power collection lines in wind farms, cables for offshore booster stations and cables for transmission to onshore centralized control centers. The deepening of wind farms will increase the amount of transmission cables. . my country's currently planned offshore wind power projects have a maximum offshore distance of 95km, and there is still room for development from the current maximum distance of 200km in Europe. The length of the 220 kV submarine cable used in the Jiangsu Dafeng H8-2 project reaches 86.6 kilometers, which is the longest AC submarine cable used in China.
Offshore wind power transmission methods include AC transmission and DC transmission. DC transmission has lower cable costs and power losses. DC power transmission converts alternating current into direct current through the converter station. The electric energy is transmitted to the onshore converter station through the high-voltage DC submarine cable, and finally it is converted back into alternating current and then connected to the AC power grid. Compared with AC power transmission, DC power transmission can reduce system investment, reduce power losses, reduce the load on offshore platforms, and reduce construction and maintenance prices.
DC submarine cable transmission system is more economical than AC submarine cable transmission system in long-distance power transmission. Deep-sea wind farms basically use flexible DC transmission. DC lines consume less materials such as non-ferrous metals, insulators and fittings than AC lines. Therefore, the cost per unit length of DC transmission lines is significantly lower than that of AC lines. However, since the equipment of the converter station is more complex than that of the AC substation, including expensive silicon controlled converters and its ancillary equipment, the investment in the converter station is higher than that of an AC substation of the same capacity and corresponding voltage. When the transmission line distance is large enough (generally greater than 57km), the advantages of low cost and low line loss expenses of DC transmission lines will be reflected.
(3) Floating wind power technology helps offshore wind power go deep-sea
Floating technology is mainly used in deep sea areas and is one of the main development trends of offshore wind power. As offshore wind power continues to move from shallow offshore waters to deep seas, the form of offshore wind turbine support structures also changes with the water depth, evolving from fixed support structures to floating support structures.The floating foundation allows the deployment of wind turbines in deep sea areas, which can maximize the potential of offshore wind energy. It not only opens up the scope of developable sea areas, but also has a shorter development cycle and is more environmentally friendly. It is the main factor for the development of far-reaching offshore wind power in the future. technology.
Barge type, semi-submersible type and single column type are the main basic types of floating wind turbines. Common basic types of floating wind turbines include barge (Barge), semi-submersible (Semi), single column (Spar), and tension leg type (TLP). Among them, semi-submersible, barge-type and single-pillar types occupy the main market shares. According to GWEC, as of July 2021, the global installed capacity of floating offshore wind power projects was 71.3MW, and it is expected that nearly 16.5GW of floating offshore wind turbines will be put into use by 2030.
China’s floating technology research started late, and there is a certain gap compared with the advanced level in Europe. SGRE SWT 6.0-154 is the world’s first commercial floating wind project, commissioned in the UK in 2017. Mingyang Intelligent's MySE5.5MW typhoon-resistant floating unit is my country's first floating unit. It was assembled and tested at Mingyang Intelligent Yangjiang Base in May 2021.
Long-term floating wind power technology is receiving more and more attention and will play an important role in global wind power generation. The development of floating wind power technology can promote the commercialization of floating wind turbines to fully tap the rich wind energy resources in deep sea areas. The number of patent applications and authorizations for floating wind turbines in my country is increasing year by year. According to GWEC data, floating wind power currently accounts for only 0.1% of the total installed wind power capacity. By 2030, it will account for 6.1% of the total new wind power installed capacity worldwide.
3. Sorting out the industrial chain links
(1) Submarine cable: Dongfang Cable , Zhongtian Technology The position of the head manufacturer of submarine cable is highlighted
The barriers to entry in the submarine cable industry are high, and the number of companies in the industry is small. Since submarine cables run on the seabed, the environment is complex and causes great damage to submarine cables. Therefore, higher technology is required to ensure the normal operation of submarine cables. In addition, due to the brand effect of submarine cables and the production and construction of submarine cables requiring special equipment and large capital investment in the early stage of production, the submarine cable industry has production technology barriers, qualification certification barriers, production equipment barriers, brand performance barriers and capital barrier. Under the influence of strict entry barriers, the only companies that can produce large-scale submarine cables are Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Han Cable Co., Ltd., Baosheng Co., Ltd. and other large companies.
The market concentration of in the submarine cable industry is relatively high. Zhongtian Technology and Oriental Cable are in the first echelon, and Oriental Cable’s submarine cable sales are chasing them. According to data from the Polaris Wind Power Grid, Zhongtian Technology has completed a total of 2,090 kilometers of submarine cable laying for the Rudong project between 2020 and 2021. Oriental Cable's 2020 annual report showed that its submarine cable sales in 2020 were 864 kilometers. Against the background of the rush to install wind power in 2021, Dongfang Cable's total submarine cable sales are expected to continue to rise, and it will be in the first echelon of submarine cables with Zhongtian Technology.
Offshore wind power is the largest downstream application market for submarine cables, and its rapid development has driven the scale of submarine cables to increase. Calculation plan 1: Calculation based on initial investment amount. Submarine cable products account for a relatively high cost in wind power installations (the investment cost of 220kV transmission cables accounts for 5-10%, the investment cost of 35kV array cables accounts for 3-4%, and the laying costs account for 20% of the cable cost). The largest downstream application market for submarine cables. Combined with the newly installed capacity of wind power, the large-scale sea wind turbines, and the further increase in offshore distance, the proportion of investment in single GW submarine cables is likely to further increase in the future. The estimated market size of China's offshore wind power-driven submarine cable system from 2022 to 2025 based on the initial investment amount is 99.04/205.67/234.54/26.904 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 34.76% compared to 2020.
Calculation Plan 2: Calculation based on the demand and price of 220kV outgoing cables and 35kV array cables: the average offshore wind farm installed capacity is 300MW (the highest offshore wind power installed capacity in recent years), and the average length of outgoing submarine cables has to be doubled for sea wind projects The offshore distance for sending out cables. In recent years, the offshore distance of newly built wind farms is less than 50km. For example, the offshore wind farm in Qidong, Jiangsu has an offshore distance of 37km. The offshore distance is greater than 50km. For example, the offshore distance of the Jiangsu Dafeng #H8 wind farm project is 72km. Here we take 2021 Taking the average value of 55km, the required length will increase as the project goes offshore. The average offshore wind power unit capacity is set at 4MW, which is increasing year by year in conjunction with the trend of large-scale wind turbines. The average array cables equipped for a single machine are based on the Longyuan Jiangsu Dafeng H4#300 project. 48 wind turbines are equipped with 90.02km array cables, and each wind turbine is equipped with an average of 1.88km array cables. According to the Polaris Wind Power Network, the unit price of 220kV transmission cables is 4-5 million yuan/km, with an average of 4.5 million yuan/km, and the unit price of 35kV array cables is 600,000-1.5 million yuan/km, with an average of 1.1 million yuan/ Kilometers, the unit price is expected to drop by 6% annually with technological development. The market size of China's offshore wind power-driven submarine cable system from 2022 to 2025, calculated based on demand and price, is 73.93/139.85/158.02/17.971 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 31.03% compared to 2020.
Comprehensive average calculation of the two methods predicts that China's offshore wind power submarine cable market size from 2022 to 2025 will be 86.48/172.76/196.28/22.438 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.19%. The global offshore wind power submarine cable market size is expected to be 193/307/410/57.8 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.18%. In the future, the domestic and global submarine cable market will have broad space.
Dongfang Cable has high-tech AC and DC submarine cable products and is my country's leading submarine cable company. Dongfang Cable has the design, research and development, manufacturing, installation and operation and maintenance service capabilities of AC (optoelectronic composite) submarine cables of 500kV and below, and DC (optoelectronic composite) submarine cable system products of ±535kV and below. It can provide far-reaching sea umbilical cables and Dynamic cable system solutions, ultra-high voltage cables and submarine cable system solutions. In the future, the number of offshore wind farms will continue to increase, and the location of offshore wind farms will increasingly push into the deep sea. These factors will increase the demand for large-length, large-capacity, and high-voltage submarine cables. Therefore, Dongfang Cable will play an important role in offshore wind power. It has strong competitiveness in the submarine cable industry. Oriental Cable's submarine cable revenue has steadily increased, and the expansion of its submarine cable business has driven strong overall sales gross profit margin. Oriental Cable's submarine cable business's total revenue proportion increased from 8.64% in 2016 to 41.31% in 2021, and its status as a submarine cable supplier has gradually become more prominent. Under the background of large-scale wind turbines, the unit price of submarine cable business is less affected. The unit price of Oriental Cable's submarine cable has remained at around 2.4 million yuan/km for a long time. Benefiting from the rapid development of the submarine cable business, Dongfang Cable's overall sales gross profit margin has also increased, from 11.03% in 2015 to 25.34% in 2021, and profitability has been improved.
Zhongtian Technology leads the submarine cable industry and has achieved breakthroughs in many key submarine cable technologies. Statistics from the National Energy Administration show that my country's newly installed offshore wind power capacity will be 16.9GW in 2021, of which 21 offshore wind power projects served by Zhongtian Technology submarine cables total 6.29GW, accounting for 37%. From a global perspective, as of the end of 2021, the company's submarine cable supply performance covers six continents except Antarctica, with a total mileage of more than 20,000 kilometers. In recent years, the company has increased investment in R&D and talent team building, and has developed 66kV collector submarine cables, flexible ultra-high voltage DC submarine cables, three-core 330kV ultra-high voltage large-capacity transmission submarine cables, and dynamic cables that meet the requirements for deep-sea floating wind turbines. Breakthroughs have been achieved in many new technologies such as deep-sea submarine cables that require the use of 2,000-meter water depths, providing strong technical support for the company to help my country's offshore wind power parity. Zhongtian Technology's submarine cable business revenue share has increased rapidly, boosting the company's comprehensive gross profit level. Zhongtian Technology is deeply involved in five major fields: ocean, new energy, power transmission, optical communications, and new materials. Among them, the submarine cable business has rapidly expanded by taking advantage of the development of the sea breeze industry and technological breakthroughs. The revenue growth rate of the submarine cable business has increased rapidly since 2019. It has remained at around 100% for many years. In the past five years, the CAGR of submarine cable business revenue has reached 63.75%, and the proportion of submarine cable business revenue has increased from 2.95% in 2017 to 20.40% in 2021.From the perspective of gross profit margin, Zhongtian Technology's submarine cable business has shown a fluctuating upward trend, rising from 30.16% in 2017 to 35.55% in 2021. It has ranked first among all businesses for three consecutive years, and is much higher than the company's overall sales gross. The level of interest rates is an important source of power for the long-term growth of a company's profitability.
(2) Towers: Daikin Heavy Industries and Tianshun Wind Energy, which focus on production capacity and excellent overseas capabilities,
the tower industry has economies of scale, and transportation capacity is an important competitiveness of tower manufacturers. Since the technical barriers of the tower itself are not high, and its production process mainly includes assembly and welding, when large customers choose tower manufacturers, they usually choose manufacturers with larger production scale and stable quality and performance. In the proportion of tower production costs, freight costs account for about 7%, second only to raw material costs, which is at a relatively high level in the machinery industry. In the context of large-scale wind power, the volume and weight of towers will also increase, and transportation will become more difficult. Therefore, manufacturers with excellent transportation capabilities and offshore capabilities can gain strong competitiveness.
Daijin Heavy Industries' four major production bases have a production capacity of one million tons and have excellent transportation capabilities. Daikin Heavy Industry has four major production bases in Liaoning Fuxin (200,000 tons), Shandong Penglai (500,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Xing'an League (100,000 tons), and Zhangjiakou Shangyi (200,000 tons), with a total production capacity of 1 million tons. The leading infrastructure of each production base also provides guarantee for the transportation of towers. Among them, the wharf of Shandong Penglai production base is located in the Penglai Sea, with a natural water depth of up to 20 to 24 meters. It is a domestically recognized deep-water port and is very suitable for the transportation of sea breeze equipment. As of the end of 2021, Penglai Dajin Terminal has built 5 berths and put 3 berths into operation, namely two 100,000-ton special berths open to the outside world and a 35,000-ton special groove berth open to the outside world, with the remaining 2 berths It is expected to be put into use in 2022. The construction of the wharf will help realize the direct shipment of the company's wind power equipment components to the port and enhance the company's ability to go to sea.
Daikin Heavy Industries’ tower business revenue has grown rapidly and its gross profit margin has been strong. In recent years, Tianshun Wind Energy's tower business operating income has maintained a leading position. Daikin Heavy Industries' revenue has grown rapidly, from 959 million yuan in 2018 to 4.358 billion yuan in 2021. The tower income gap with Tianshun Wind Energy has gradually narrowed. . Compared with Tianshun's wind energy tower business, which has seen its gross profit margin decline year by year, Daikin Heavy Industries' gross profit margin remains at around 22% while its tower business is rapidly expanding, and its profitability remains stable.
Tianshun Wind Energy is the world leader in wind power towers, and its scale expansion is in steady progress. Since its establishment in 2005, Tianshun Wind Energy has been deeply involved in the new energy equipment manufacturing industry. It is now a leading domestic and foreign large-scale wind tower, blade and equipment manufacturing company. Products include onshore and offshore wind towers, blades and molds, wind power and offshore products and other key components. As of 2020, Tianshun has built 9 tower production bases and 3 blade production bases in China and Europe. It has an existing tower production capacity of 700,000 tons. It is expected to add 600,000 tons of offshore engineering production capacity by the end of 2022 and 1.2 million tons by the end of 2023. Tower production capacity of 10,000 tons.
's performance maintains growth, and its gross profit margin and net profit margin are relatively stable. The operating income in 2021 is 8.2 billion yuan, +0.89% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.310 billion yuan, +24.76% year-on-year; the company's operating income CAGR from 2007 to 2021 is 28.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company CAGR is 26.74%. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin are generally relatively stable, with the gross profit margin generally remaining around 25% and the net profit margin above 10%. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 21.57%, -1.92pct year-on-year, and the net profit rate was 15.96%, +2.24pct year-on-year, demonstrating strong risk resistance.
The tower business has entered a stable growth channel, and the blade and power generation business has made great progress. Since 2016 and 2017, the company has begun to expand the diversified layout of the wind power equipment manufacturing sector and achieved remarkable results. In 2020, the company's tower business revenue was 5.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.23%; blade product revenue was 2.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187.50%; wind power generation business revenue was 710 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.03%; at the same time, blade products and wind power generation The gross profit margin of the business is higher. It is expected that after the offshore wind power production base is completed in the future, the company's incremental space will be further opened.
(3) Complete machine: The "Two Seas Strategy" is advancing steadily, and leading manufacturers are expected to benefit.
The offshore wind power complete machine industry is highly concentrated, and the performance of leading manufacturers is stable. In recent years, the CR5 of the offshore wind power complete machine industry has been above 90%, and the performance of leading manufacturers has been relatively stable. Among them, Electric Wind Power (formerly Shanghai Electric) has maintained the first place in newly installed capacity for a long time. Envision Energy, Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Intelligent , China Offshore Equipment Corporation followed closely behind, and also has a relatively high newly installed capacity of offshore wind power. In 2021, Mingyang Intelligent will make efforts in the field of offshore wind power, with a market share of 26.11%, second only to electrical wind power.
As of the end of 2021, there are 13 offshore wind turbine manufacturers in my country. Among them, the top five companies in terms of cumulative installed capacity are Electric Wind Power, Mingyang Intelligent, Goldwind Technology, Envision Energy and China Marine Equipment, with a cumulative installed capacity of 23.62GW, accounting for 93.31% of the total installed capacity.
The profitability of leading offshore wind power equipment manufacturers remains stable. As a leading offshore wind turbine manufacturer, Electrical Wind Power's offshore wind turbine business has shown a steady growth trend, with operating income rising from 4.507 billion yuan in 2017 to 23.576 billion yuan in 2021. Mingyang Intelligent has begun to pay attention to the offshore wind power field in the past two years, and its operating income has increased from 727 million yuan in 2018 to 14.475 billion yuan in 2021. While the business scale is expanding, the gross profit margin level of complete machine manufacturers has declined. Electric Wind Power's sea wind business has maintained a relatively high gross profit margin for a long time, while Goldwind Technology's gross profit margin has also rebounded, rising from 12.50% in 2019 to 17.71% in 2021.
(4) Converter: Hope Electric is deeply involved in wind and solar power storage energy conversion, leading the new energy trend
Hewang Electric focuses on the field of power conversion and is a leading domestic supplier of new energy power electronics and electrical transmission equipment. Its main products include wind power Converters, photovoltaic inverters, electrical transmission equipment, etc. After years of investment in R&D, the company has now formed a technology platform with power electronics technology, electrical transmission technology, industrial communication/interconnection technology and machine process/manufacturing process technology as the core. Hopeng Electric's revenue has grown steadily in recent years and its profits have rebounded. From 2018 to 2019, the company faced an industry trough. Intensified competition in the wind power industry led to the withdrawal of some small and medium-sized customers. According to the company's financial report, bad debt provisions of 360 million yuan and 430 million yuan were made respectively in the two years, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company declined significantly. In 2020, benefiting from the rapid development of the wind power and photovoltaic industries, the company's revenue reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%; the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 302.0%. In 2021, the company's revenue reached 2.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%; the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and profits maintained a growth trend.
Hewang leads the market share of electrical converters and leads its peers in gross profit margin. Compared with peers, Hopeang Electric's wind power converters have been developed earlier and have a solid business foundation. In 2016, Hopeng's wind power converter revenue reached RMB 660 million, while Sungrow's revenue was RMB 86 million during the same period. According to Wind data, the wind power converter revenue of Hope Electric and Sungrow in 2020 is 1.47 billion yuan and 1.42 billion yuan respectively; the corresponding revenue in the first half of 2021 is estimated to be 520 million yuan and 480 million yuan respectively; it is estimated that before 2021 The corresponding revenue in the third quarter was 900 million yuan and 770 million yuan respectively. It is expected that the combined market share of Hopeng Electric and Sungrow has exceeded 50%, and Hopeng Electric ranks among the first echelons of the industry. The decline in wind power costs has driven down product prices. In recent years, the gross profit margin of related products has shown a downward trend. Based on technology accumulation and scale, Hopeng still has a comparative advantage in gross profit margin. In the future, it is expected to accelerate cost reduction with technology iteration and maintain its leading position in the industry.
It is expected that the CAGR of the converter market size will reach 7.9% from 2022 to 2025, and the company's business is expected to accelerate development. Considering the rush to install offshore wind power in 2021, it is expected that the growth rate of the market size will relatively slow down in 2022. Based on the judgment of China's onshore and offshore wind power installed capacity and combined with the price trend of wind power units, it is expected that China's wind power converter market will reach 7.31 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2022 to 2025. Among them, offshore wind power has a large demand for full-power converters. With the continuous development of offshore wind power, the proportion of full-power converters may continue to increase.It is expected that by 2025, the doubly-fed converter market size will reach 2.63 billion yuan, with a CAGR of approximately 1.7% from 2022 to 2025, and the full-power converter market size will reach 4.68 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 12.2% from 2022 to 2025. There is broad development space for offshore wind power converters in the future. The company has advanced technology and R&D capabilities, and has strong competitiveness in the industry. It is expected to continue to benefit from future business development. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
(5) Comprehensive power service provider: Yongfu Co., Ltd. New energy + energy storage collaborative empowerment
Leading private survey and design companies accelerate their transformation into comprehensive power energy service providers, "new energy + energy storage" industry chain The ecology is becoming increasingly perfect. As the only independently listed private enterprise in China that can undertake the survey and design of large-scale power generation, power transmission and transformation business, Yongfu Co., Ltd. has established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with more than 30 large state-owned enterprises and their affiliated companies, including the State Grid Corporation of China and large power generation groups. , has accumulated rich project experience in the fields of distributed energy stations, offshore wind power, photovoltaic power generation, UHV and other fields. Yongfu Co., Ltd. has the highest qualification level in power design - Class A qualification in engineering design (power industry), and has leading power generation (nuclear power, gas power generation, wind power, photovoltaic and other clean energy and new energy), power grid (full voltage including UHV) Level), comprehensive energy, smart energy, energy storage and other power energy system integration solution capabilities, and the qualifications fully support the company's business expansion nationwide.
The impact of the epidemic gradually dissipated, and the performance recovered significantly after excluding the impact of share-based payment. In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 1.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.92%. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 41 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.94%. Net profit after non-attributable to the parent company was 19.0 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.48%. The sharp decline in net profit attributable to the parent company is mainly caused by the company's share-based payment formed by the amortization of equity incentive expenses. If the impact of share-based payment of 51 million yuan is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 92 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.38%. In 2022Q1, the company's operating income was 414 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.35%. After deducting the non-attributable net profit to the parent company, it was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1941.17%. In the first quarter, as the off-season for traditional engineering enterprises, the company The strong performance during the off-season highlights the strong demand throughout the year. Looking forward to 2022, the accelerated implementation of wind, solar and storage projects is expected to bring new profit turning points to companies.
EPC business contributes the main revenue, and the company's overall gross profit margin is under pressure. Since 2016, the share of EPC business in revenue has increased year by year, accounting for 62.30% and 82.72% respectively in 2018 and 2019, accounting for the main component of revenue. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the progress of EPC projects has slowed down and revenue has declined. New The performance of project order signing was not fully released. In 2021, as the epidemic eased and the EPC process accelerated, a single business contributed revenue of 1.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.34%, accounting for 80.50% of the revenue, a year-on-year increase of 16.56pct. In terms of gross profit margin, the company's overall gross profit margin in 2021 was 21.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36pct, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of EPC business.
takes energy storage EPC as the entry point and joins hands with power battery giants to lay out a prosperous track. According to CNESA statistics, among the newly put into operation domestic energy storage installed capacity in 2021, Ningde Times contracted an additional share of 1.83GWh, and global energy storage battery shipments were 16.51GWh, with a market share far ahead of similar domestic companies. The company joined hands with power battery giants to lay out a prosperous track. In December 2020, CATL acquired 8% of the company's shares at a price of 14.52 yuan/share and became the second largest shareholder; in February 2021, CATL once again increased its capital to invest in Yongfu Dentsu ( Later renamed Times Yongfu Technology Co., Ltd.), with a shareholding ratio of 60%, focusing on smart energy and new energy industries; in May 2021, Times Yongfu and CNNC Titanium Dioxide jointly established CNNC Times, focusing on the development and construction of integrated wind, solar and storage energy In terms of operations, the company’s cooperation with lithium battery giants continues to strengthen.
As an important link in the upstream and downstream integrated layout of CATL, the company is highly collaborative and complementary with leading companies to jointly create a moat for the energy storage industry.CATL has cooperated with many companies around the world by virtue of its scale advantages and brand competitiveness, and has in-depth cooperation with upstream and downstream companies. In terms of energy storage, it has successively cooperated with Nebula Co., Ltd., Costar, Easystar, State Grid Comprehensive Energy, and Fujian Baicheng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Energy, Yongfu Co., Ltd. and other industry leaders have established joint ventures to fully engage in power generation-side energy storage such as wind power and photovoltaics, grid-side energy storage such as storage and charging stations, and user-side energy storage such as charging piles and household energy storage cabinets to jointly deploy energy storage. The whole industry chain. The company's current demonstration projects include: (1) Undertaking the State Grid Times Huadian Datong Thermoelectric Energy Storage Project with a winning bid amount of 20.62 million yuan and providing full-process consulting services to create a national energy storage project full-process engineering service benchmark project; (2) In the era of State Grid, Fujian's gigawatt-level Ningde Xiapu energy storage project provides digital technical services and realizes full life cycle digital technology applications such as energy storage station design, construction, handover, operation and maintenance, and the competitive advantage of the energy storage industry continues to strengthen.
From EPC to smart energy and operation and maintenance, it gives new opportunities for digitalization. The company's smart energy business mainly includes power information technology services, digital power, power communications and automation businesses. The company relies on its profound industry background to provide power information products and full life cycle energy solutions for power grid companies, power generation companies and other related companies in the energy industry chain. , the products have been used in many projects such as Fujian Provincial Electric Power Dispatch Center and Changle Offshore Wind Power, and have high market recognition. Intelligent operation and maintenance mainly provides customers with integrated wind, solar and storage operation and maintenance services. Among them, the intelligent operation and maintenance platform of solar energy and storage has broad application prospects in the field of distributed photovoltaics. In the future, the company's digital business is expected to expand from Fujian to the whole country, and from power grid enterprises to energy enterprises.
(6) Pile foundation: The industry is seeing both volume and price rise, and Haili Wind Power has a market share advantage.
There are technical barriers in the pile foundation industry, and Haili Wind Power's pile foundation business has a leading market share. There are high technical barriers in the pile foundation industry, and it is difficult for a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to enter the mainstream market. Downstream customers often choose leading companies when choosing suppliers. According to data from Haili Wind Power’s prospectus, Haili Wind Power’s pile foundation market share was 17.68% and 23.03% in 2018 and 2019 respectively, ranking in the leading position. Therefore, when the demand for pile foundations benefits from the development of offshore wind power, Haili Wind Power's pile foundation business will expand.
The volume and price of Haili wind power pile foundation products have increased, and the gross profit margin level of the pile foundation business has basically remained stable. The sales volume of Haili wind power pile foundations has been on an upward trend in recent years, and at the same time, the unit price level has also increased year by year. This is mainly due to the scale effect brought about by the increased demand for pile foundations. According to data from Haili Wind Power's prospectus, its pile foundation capacity utilization rates in 2020 and the first half of 2021 were 121% and 102% respectively, and its production and sales rates were 93.39% and 93.23% respectively, which is basically at the level of full production and full sales. In addition, Haili Wind Power's pile foundation business also maintained a relatively stable gross profit margin level against the background of high bargaining levels.
(7) Blades: Focusing on the trend of large-scale and lightweight, Times New Materials stands out
Times New Materials focuses on the development trend of large-scale and lightweight wind power blades. In 2020, Times New Materials adjusted its product structure, focusing on launching large-leaf types such as 146; it also formed a strategic partner with Shanghai Electric to deepen the level of cooperation in the field of offshore wind power, and jointly developed my country's first 72-meter-long offshore wind turbine. Dual-purpose wind power blade S72; completed the experimental trial production and on-hook blade production of the first domestic carbon fiber pultruded girder offshore blade EN161. Driven by management level and technological progress, the delivery cycle has been reduced from 36.1 days at the beginning of 2020 to 17.2 days, and delivery efficiency has been significantly improved. In 2021, the company will further accelerate the speed of blade R&D and mass production, vigorously tackle the offshore market and develop high-power offshore blades of 7-8MW and above, and complete the offshore blade capacity building of the Sheyang factory to prepare for the subsequent growth of the sea wind business.
Era’s new blade material market share ranks second in the country, with revenue growing rapidly. Times New Materials' wind power blade business ranks second in the country in terms of business scale. Benefiting from the rush for wind power installation in 2020, the operating income of the blade business reached 6.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 196.12%.In 2021, affected by factors such as lower new grid-connected installed capacity and high prices of main raw materials, the blade business revenue of companies in the industry will be affected. Among them, Times New Materials' blade business revenue was 5.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9% , but there is still significant growth compared with the blade revenue of 2.325 billion yuan in 2019 before the rush for installation. The company's CAGR from 2017 to 2021 is 20.34%, slightly higher than Sinoma Technology. From the perspective of the company's gross profit, Times New Material's gross profit margin has shown a fluctuating upward trend, rising from 12.10% in 2016 to 17.04% in 2020. The gross profit margin of Times New Materials dropped to 9.76% in 2021, mainly due to the decline in blade selling prices and the increase in raw material prices.
(8) Spindle bearings: The localization rate of large-megawatt bearings needs to be improved. The localization rate of Xinqianglian's domestic leading
bearings needs to be improved. The research and development of large-megawatt spindle bearings has a long way to go. Data provided by Wood Mackenzie shows that the localization rate of major components such as wind turbine blades, gearboxes, generators, and towers in my country has exceeded 70% in 2019, but the localization rate of yaw pitch bearings and main shaft bearings It only reaches 50% and 33%, which is lower than the average localization rate of domestic wind turbine parts. As the trend of large-scale wind turbines continues to advance, 8-10MW offshore wind turbines are gradually put into operation in batches. However, the localization rate of main shaft bearings above 3MW is at a very low level. The large-megawatt mainshaft bearing market is still dominated by SKF, Schaeffler, EN It is monopolized by the world's eight largest bearing companies including SK, JTEKT, NTT, Timken, Minebea, and Fujikoshi. For domestic bearing manufacturing companies such as Xinqianglian, Wazhou, Jingye Bearing, etc., their current large-megawatt spindle bearing manufacturing capacity is around 4-5MW, and larger megawatt bearings still require further research and development and testing.
Xinqianglian’s operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company both grew rapidly, and the gross profit margin of the fan bearing business has remained high for a long time. Xinqianglian's revenue has grown rapidly in recent years, from 457 million yuan in 2018 to 2.477 billion yuan in 2021, of which the CAGR from 2018 to 2021 reached 53.58%. From a business perspective, the gross profit margin of Xinqianglian's wind turbine bearing business has been stable at a high level for a long time, basically maintaining a level of around 31% since 2016, and its profitability has remained stable; the proportion of wind turbine bearing revenue business has rapidly increased to 86% since 2018. %, which laid the foundation for the company to further stabilize its leading position in wind turbine bearings and accelerate the research and development of large-megawatt bearings.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice on our part. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official website
