In 2012, Abe regained the position of prime minister under the banner of "Abenomics". This time, Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party will once again use "Abenomics" as the main campaign theme to highlight the results of this economic policy. However, Japanese companies have a "cold or hot" feeling about this economic policy that the Japanese government is keen to praise. one".
The hotness and coldness of "Abenomics"
In the view of real estate developer Gui Xiaoke, Abe's economic policies in the past five years have had their successes. "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, real estate is a capital-intensive industry, and Abe's implementation of negative interest rate quantitative easing policy has greatly stimulated the development of consumption and the real estate industry."
Data released by Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on September 19 showed that commercial land across Japan After rising in July last year for the first time in nine years, land prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year this year. The average increase in the three major metropolitan areas was 1.2%. In Ginza, Tokyo, land prices set a new record during the bubble economy period for the first time in 26 years. According to data provided by Nuandeng International Real Estate, the largest Chinese real estate company in Japan where Gui Xiaoke is located, land prices in Tokyo have continued to rise in the past five years, with an increase of 9.13% this year.
According to Gui Xiaoke, Gui Xiaochuan, the president of Nuandeng International Real Estate, who went to Japan as early as the 1990s, was one of the few foreigners who obtained the Japanese real estate transaction license "Residential Building Director" in the early days. "At that time, this license was very difficult to obtain. Every year, the Emperor of Japan would hold a dinner to meet those who obtained the license and shake hands with them one by one." Gui Xiaoke said that taking advantage of the policy dividends in recent years, the company has gradually developed. To grow stronger, we are committed to exploring overseas markets.
Compared with Nuandeng International Real Estate, which is developing like a fish in water, the Yamada couple from Tokushima Prefecture in western Japan are facing increasing pressure. Nakano Industrial Co., Ltd. , run by the Yamadas, is a well-known food processing factory in rural Japan. The depreciation of the yen and the increase in raw material costs caused by the quantitative easing policy have made the Yamadas' small operation stretched, and the operating pressure is increasing. Three years ago, they had to go abroad and try to find a way out overseas. There are nearly 4.3 million small and medium-sized enterprises like Nakano Industrial in Japan, accounting for more than 99% of the total number of Japanese companies.
"In January 2014, we began to consider selling our products in China. For this purpose, we hired a Chinese who is fluent in Japanese to facilitate local business contacts in China." Yamada Machiko told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn), "The burden on Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises is getting bigger and bigger, and they want to try to find a way out overseas."
What caused Gui Xiaoke and Yamada to feel "different" about the business environment was Shinzo Abe who became the Prime Minister of Japan again in December 2012. A series of economic stimulus policies were implemented later, including loose monetary policy, active fiscal policy, economic structural reform, etc. Among them, the most core quantitative easing monetary policy has promoted the accelerated depreciation of the Japanese yen exchange rate and the significant growth of exports, greatly enhanced the profits and international competitiveness of large Japanese companies, and reversed the previous decline of Japanese companies in international competition.
In addition, a series of data have also given "Abenomics" a shiny coat - as of July this year, Japan's economic recovery has lasted 56 months, becoming Japan's third longest post-war economic period. Recovery period; Japan received a total of 24 million foreign tourists in 2016, an increase of 21.8% from the previous year, and is expected to welcome 40 million tourists in 2020; in February 2017, Japan's unemployment dropped to a 22-year low of 2.8%.
But at the same time, the increasingly expanding balance sheet is also worrying. According to statistics, the current size of Japan’s national debt is 865 trillion yen, an increase of 165 trillion yen from 2012. If the total amount of local debt liabilities is included Up to 1,000 trillion yen.In addition, the labor shortage problem caused by low unemployment rate is also highlighted. According to data from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the ratio of vacant positions to job seekers in Japan reached 1.49 in May this year, and Japan's labor shortage has reached the highest level in 43 years.
"While promoting economic growth, Japan has also paid a lot of easily overlooked 'prices of growth' for Abenomics." Chen Zilei, director of the Japan Economic Research Center at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, told The Paper.
"Abenomics is a typical neoliberal policy. After the restrictions and supervision on enterprises are relaxed, large enterprises will benefit first, while small and medium-sized enterprises will not benefit so much, and ordinary workers will benefit even more. Limited." Cai Liang, associate researcher at the Asia-Pacific Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, added, "Since the Koizumi period announced the legalization of dispatch workers and contract workers, Japan has gradually become the country with the widest gap between rich and poor among developed countries."
" "Abenomics" has not changed Japan
For a long time, "Abenomics" has been equally supported and opposed in Japan. In the international community, "Abenomics" has also lost its initial aura and been overshadowed. A thick layer of dust. Now, facing the dual challenges of unstable support ratings and Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike uniting with the opposition parties to launch an attack on the position of prime minister, Abe once again pinned his campaign hopes on his "economics" - announcing plans to start the year after tomorrow In October, the consumption tax rate was raised from 8% to 10%; it is planned to use 2 trillion yen (approximately RMB 120 billion) from the increased tax to promote free early childhood education to promote population growth. This "parenting economics" may become its signature new policy.
Whether the efforts to promote population growth are effective requires long-term observation, but whether the Japanese people still buy into "Abenomics" will be known next month. Japan’s House of Representatives was officially dissolved on the 28th, and the election of a new generation of members will be held on the 22nd of next month. Abe has said that if his Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling ally Komeito fail to win half of the seats, he will take the blame and resign.
In the past few months, Shinzo Abe's approval rating has been on a roller coaster. At the same time, Yuriko Koike, who has long been rooted in Tokyo, has been showing a fierce offensive. The "Party of Hope" announced by Koike on the 25th has recruited diverse generals and plans to merge with the Democratic Progressive Party, the largest opposition party. According to the latest survey of " Mainichi Shimbun ", the "Party of Hope", which has only been established for three days, has won the support of 18% of voters, while the support rate of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is 29%.
"After the Kake Gakuen incident, Abe's approval rating dropped from 60% earlier to around 30%, and now it has suddenly risen to over 50%. But now he wants to attack the opposition parties while sniping at Koike." Gui Xiaoke analyzed to The Paper that Koike and others are developing very fast. If the election is held a few months later as previously planned, "no one knows what will happen, and the further it goes, the more dangerous it will be (for Abe)."
Another data may also reflect Abe's current situation: According to the " Economic Reference Newspaper ", the first trading day after the media intensively reported the news that the Japanese House of Representatives will be dissolved - September 19, Tokyo The Nikkei stock index closed at 20,299.38 points, up 389.88 points from the previous trading day, setting a record for the highest closing price this year. The financial markets with the keenest sense of smell have already cast their votes. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga made his own interpretation of this: "The stock price is the same as the cabinet support rate. High is better than low, and the government welcomes this. "
In Gui Xiaoke's view, Abe's recently proposed economic policy-focused package makes him "feel very confident." He also expects that the "Gambling Bill" passed at the end of last year to allow the opening of casinos in Japan will be After the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, it will further stimulate the rapid growth of Japan's economy. "The population flow brought by casinos will undoubtedly have huge dividends for the tourism and real estate industries."
However, the significant policy effects of "Abenomics" and the dividends in some areas have not yet been able to truly structurally change Japan.
"'Abenomics' has not touched on some of the fundamental problems of Japan's economic system since World War II, such as the excessive role of the government, the serious monopoly of governments and large enterprises within a large number of industries, and the lack of market competitiveness." China's Modern International Relations Liu Junhong, director of the institute’s Institute of Globalization and a member of the China Strategic Think Tank expert group, concluded to The Paper, “So it is far from a comprehensive change in the Japanese economy.”
