The mayoral election in Taichung at the end of the year is currently showing a blue-green showdown. The Democratic Progressive Party recruited "Vice President of the Legislative Yuan" Cai Qichang to challenge the current mayor of the Kuomintang, Lu Xiuyan. An investigation into the Taichung mayoral election by Taiwan's "United Daily News" found that Lu Xiuyan has the advantage of being the current incumbent, and the green camp is facing a tough battle.
Lo Hsiu-yan's approval rating is 51%, significantly ahead of Tsai Chi-chang's 22%. 56% of voters are optimistic about Lo Hsiu-yan's re-election, while 11% believe Tsai Chi-chang has a better chance of winning. The survey found that if they vote tomorrow, Lu Xiuyan will receive the support of 51% of voters, and 22% will favor Cai Qichang. Lu leads her opponent by nearly 30 percentage points, and 27% of voters are undecided about their support intentions.
 Cross-analysis found that Lu Xiuyan received more than 50% support from both male and female voters; Cai Qichang's support among male voters was seven percentage points higher than that among women, but his support was less than 30%.
In terms of age, Lu Xiuyan is favored by young voters. Among all age groups, voters between 40 and 59 years old have the highest support for Lu Xiuyan's re-election, with a support rate of nearly 60%. In addition to Cai Qichang, he won 20% among voters under 40 years old. In addition to the support of 80%, the support of voters in other age groups ranged from 14% to 21%.
In terms of party affiliation, Lu Xiuyan is supported by nearly 90% of KMT supporters and more than 70% of People's Party supporters. Lu is also slightly better among neutral voters, with 47% support ahead of Cai Qichang's 16%.
Even among supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party, 30% support Lu, while less than 60% support Tsai Tsai. How to gather votes from the green camp is a big test for Cai Qichang.
In terms of regional differences, in the former Taichung City area before the merger, Lu Xiuyan led Tsai Chi-chang with nearly 60% support and 20% support; in the former Taichung County area, Tsai Chi-chang's support rose to 23%, but she still had 46% support compared with Lu Hsiu-yan. A gap.
Judging from the winning momentum, Taichung voters are also optimistic that Lu Xiuyan can be successfully re-elected. 56% of voters think that Lu Xiuyan has a better chance of being elected, only 11% think that Cai Qichang has a better chance of winning, and 33% have no opinion.
Lu Xiuyan’s high support and performance in governance are important drivers. The survey found that 62% of Taichung voters approved of Lu Xiuyan's policy performance, while only 18% were dissatisfied and 20% had no opinion. Analysis shows that among voters who are satisfied with Lu Xiuyan's governance, 73% support Lu and 10% support Tsai. Among voters who are dissatisfied with Lu Xiuyan's governance, 68% support Tsai and 15% support Lo.
However, Taichung voters’ sense of electoral efficacy is not high. 61% of voters believe that the results of the county and mayor elections at the end of the year will not affect their lives at all, only 24% think it will have some impact, and 9% think it will have a great impact. (Xue Yang/Editor)
