cover news reporter Zhu Ning
html On July 1, the Shanghai stock index fluctuated within a narrow range in early trading, and fell slightly in the afternoon; the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell back, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1% and falling below 2,800 points; the turnover of the two cities has It has exceeded one trillion for 7 consecutive trading days.As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.32% to 3387.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.28% to 12860.36 points, the GEM Index fell 1.02% to 2781.94 points, and the two cities' total turnover was 1,051.3 billion yuan.
In the first half of this year, after experiencing multiple shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve substantial interest rate hikes , global stock markets have emerged from a market that disappointed investors. The Hang Seng Index fell below 20,000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points. The Dow fell below 30,000 points, and at the same time, the S&P 500 was on track for its worst first-half performance in decades.
In contrast, although A shares and Hong Kong shares also fell sharply at the beginning of the year, a rebound that started at the end of April made their declines relatively moderate. As of the close on July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.93% in the first half of the year, and the Hang Seng Index closed down 6.57%.
The index's amplitude during the year exceeded 20%.
A-shares rebounded strongly after May.
In the first half of the year, hit by internal and external unfavorable factors, A-share market once fell sharply. However, so far, the cumulative decline of the Shanghai Composite Index in the past six months is 6.93%, which is the highest in the world. The performance in major financial markets is still relatively impressive.
Looking at the overall index, at the beginning of this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index began to gradually fall back from above 3,500 points. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggered an unexpected unilateral plunge in the market, which had a huge impact on the capital market. In terms of public funds, some theme funds experienced a retracement of more than 30% during the year. After
fell sharply in mid-March, the market rebounded slightly. However, in mid-to-late April, affected by the epidemic, the most tragic wave of and broke out this year. In less than ten trading days, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell from more than 3,100 points to the lowest point in the first half of this year of 2,863 points.
After entering May, the market began to be passivated by various negative factors, especially in terms of US stocks . The Fed's interest rate hike has settled, and US stocks have suffered a continuous sharp decline. The reporter noticed that at this time, A-shares no longer followed the decline of U.S. stocks. At the same time, the strong rebound of new energy track funds became the biggest bright spot in the market, and some products even rose by 30% in a month. As of June, some theme funds finally began to turn losses. After experiencing these three stages of operation, in the first half of this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index completed a huge "V"-shaped reversal.
Rising energy prices lead to sector gains
From an industry perspective, since this year, energy and post-epidemic recovery have become the main tone of A-shares. Four industries, including silicon energy, hotels and catering, coal, and tourism sectors, have increased by more than 28%! In addition, duty-free shops, energy-saving building and other industries have increased by more than 10%.
Among them, silicon energy ranked first in the market with an increase of 37.75%. The reporter noticed that the strength of silicon energy is directly related to the continued high price of silicon materials. Silicon material prices have continued to rise steadily since 2022, and the current price is once again approaching the historical high in the third quarter of last year. High prices for silicon materials have also brought relatively high short-term profitability to related companies.
The overall growth rate of the coal sector in the first half of the year exceeded 45%, and it became the most contrarian sector during the in-depth adjustment of the index. The reason why coal has remained relatively strong in the first half of the year is that global coal prices have continued to soar against the background of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
data shows that from January to April 2022, the coal industry achieved a total profit of 344.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.3%. In the second quarter, the prices of most coal types continued the high boom of the previous quarter. The average price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%-5.3% month-on-month.
Focus on the main line of economic recovery
As for the reasons for the deep "V" trend of A-shares, the reporter interviewed Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank . He believed that in the early stage, in addition to a series of external negative news that stimulated pessimistic sentiment in the stock market and caused the stock market to fall, there were also some reasons. Many factors drove the stock market to rise before the end of April, thus accumulating a certain amount of profit taking. The closing of short-term profit taking led to certain adjustments in the market .
Judging from the current stock market trend, Zhou Maohua said: "At present, the fundamentals are recovering steadily, corporate profit prospects are optimistic, policy support is still low, and valuations are still low. In this environment, there is insufficient reason to be bearish on the trend; in addition, judging from market trading volume and stock market In terms of activity, market optimism still prevails. "
Regarding the future trend of A-shares and the market focus sectors, private equity fund manager Xu Tian told reporters that from an optimistic perspective, the rise in U.S. interest rates, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the domestic epidemic. Negative effects such as rebounds will gradually weaken. With the continuous efforts of policies to stabilize growth, capital growth will slowly pick up.
Regarding sectors of concern, Xu Tian said that we should focus on the main line of economic recovery. Against the macro backdrop of economic recovery, growth sectors with high prosperity have profit advantages. In the 2022 first quarter results of A-share listed companies, the profit growth performance of most upstream resources, new energy, and some consumption and growth fields is relatively outstanding, including photovoltaic , wind power, military industry, and semiconductor sectors, showing that they are under cost pressure. Against the larger background, the profitability of mainstream growth directions can still maintain high prosperity. Secondly, as the epidemic eases and logistics continues to recover, it is expected that optional consumption will be more flexible after the epidemic control is restored, and more attention can be paid to related optional consumption sectors.
Hualong Securities believes that the equity risk premium of major A-share indexes shows that the current market is still in a relatively bottom area in history and has medium-term allocation value. Although the index has continued to rebound and rise after hitting a low on April 27, its current relative position is still not high and there are still good layout opportunities. Most of the industry valuations are also within a reasonable range. The high-valued sectors in the early stage have achieved stage allocation value after adjustments. In the second half of the year, related low-valued sectors will usher in investment opportunities. In terms of industry configuration and strategy selection, we should focus on the main line of growth certainty and allocate high-quality and low-valuation targets. Large consumption, stable growth, and high-tech growth manufacturing are the three main lines of growth certainty.
[If you have news clues, please report them to us. Once adopted, we will be rewarded. Follow us on WeChat for reporting materials: ihxdsb, QQ for reporting materials: 3386405712】
