reporter: Zhang Lingxiao
The latest data released on Friday showed that the U.S. CPI once again "exploded" in May, hitting a 40-year year-on-year growth rate after March, while consumer confidence fell to rock bottom. This poured cold water on expectations of "peak inflation" and triggered global market turmoil. Against the background of high inflation, Wall Street began to discuss whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 375 basis points. Barclays became the first major Wall Street bank to predict a rate hike of 75 basis points, and even expected to raise interest rates by this amount next week. Some traders believe there is a 50% probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in July. Central banks of many countries held interest rate decision-making meetings this week, and both India and Australia raised interest rates again to curb inflation. The European Central Bank also said it plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July. Executives of the global investment management institution Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) analyzed the European Central Bank's next plan in an interview with a reporter from " Daily Economic News ". The Japanese yen has suffered a heavy setback recently, and is less than 1 yen away from the high point of the U.S. dollar-yen exchange rate in 2002, which has attracted widespread market attention. Three departments, including the Bank of Japan, jointly "spoke out" to express "concern" about the recent rapid decline of the yen against the US dollar, and stated that the Japanese authorities will take appropriate actions on foreign exchange if necessary. Will the Japanese government really take intervention measures? What will be the trend of the Japanese yen in the future? A reporter from the Mainichi Business News contacted Hayato Shirai, a former review member of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Committee, for interpretation. On the company side, the UK announced that it plans to launch a series of antitrust investigations into Apple and Google; ExxonMobil’s stock price exceeded $100 for the first time in eight years; Apple’s 2022 spring conference was held as scheduled, with iOS 16, M2 chips, etc. making stunning appearances. In addition, the existence of a "source of life" outside the earth was confirmed for the first time; more than 1,000 cases have been diagnosed in total, and many countries urgently raised their monkeypox epidemic alerts; in a small anti-cancer drug trial, all the tumors of 14 rectal cancer patients disappeared . For more information, just read "Weekly International Finance".
is less than 1 yen away from the 20-year low!
The Bank of Japan and other departments have expressed "concern" about the decline of the yen.
Image source: Visual China-VCG111370536893
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the yen has become one of the currencies with the largest depreciation among the world's major currencies this year. From early January to June 10, the Japanese yen exchange rate has depreciated by more than 16%. As of 13:00 on June 11, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen was 134.4 yen, less than 1 yen away from the high of 135.15 in 2002. More and more investors are participating in short yen trades. Brian Gould, head of trading at investment trading platform Capital.com, revealed: "Orders to sell the yen are coming in 24 hours a day. In the past few days, we have witnessed a significant increase in trading volume." Gould said investors hope to trade at 20-year highs Perform USD/JPY operations.
Image source: Yingwei Finance
Hayuri Shirai, a former review member of the Bank of Japan’s policy committee, said in an email interview with a reporter from the Mainichi Business News that the dollar against the yen is mainly affected by the gap between the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds. As well as the impact of spreads between interest rates in other countries and Japanese interest rates. Regarding the rapid decline of the yen, on June 10, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan and the Financial Services Agency issued a joint statement expressing "concern." The statement stated that the Japanese authorities will take appropriate actions on foreign exchange when necessary and will communicate closely with other countries; the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan will work closely together to pay close attention to foreign exchange trends and their impact on the economy and prices; the stable fluctuations in foreign exchange reflect the fundamental fundamentals. Importantly, we do not want the Japanese yen exchange rate to fluctuate rapidly. Hayuri told reporters that the Bank of Japan is currently unlikely to change its interest rate policy, because if fresh food and energy are excluded, Japan's (current) inflation rate is only 0.8%, far below the 2% inflation target. As for the later trend of the yen, Hayuri told reporters that currently, the U.S. dollar will hover around 135 against the yen and may rise to 140. The Bank of Japan has been continuing its monetary easing policy for a long time. Its main purpose is to create room for price recovery through excessive currency issuance and to drive profit growth in the export industry.However, S&P Global Market Intelligence pointed out in a report provided to the Daily Economic News reporter that the positive impact of the depreciation of the yen may not meet the expectations of the Bank of Japan. For example, many companies have moved their products to overseas production in order to avoid trade restrictions and reduce costs. The elasticity coefficient of Japanese exports relative to changes in the yen exchange rate has declined, which means that the depreciation of the yen will not promote exports as before. . Note: The above interview content only represents the personal views of the interviewees and does not represent the position of "Daily Economic News" nor does it constitute investment advice.
Many central banks have raised interest rates to suppress inflation. The World Bank has warned of the risk of "stagflation" and lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year.
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In the "Global Economic Outlook" report released on June 7, local time, The World Bank said that due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the current global economy may enter a "stagflation period" of "low growth and high inflation." In order to solve the problem of inflation, central banks around the world have raised interest rates more than 60 times since this year. This week, central banks of many countries held interest rate decision-making meetings, and India and Australia once again started a new interest rate hike cycle. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise interest rates in July. The Bank of India announced on the 8th that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.9%. This is the second time the Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates this year after raising interest rates by 40 basis points in May. India's inflation rate has exceeded the 6% medium-term inflation target set by the Reserve Bank of India for four consecutive months. The day before, the Australian central bank announced an interest rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.85%. This was the second interest rate increase in two months. At the same time, it continued to increase the interest rate on foreign exchange settlement balances by 50 basis points from 0.25%. basis points to 0.75%. On the 9th local time, the European Central Bank stated at a Governing Council meeting in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, that the bank decided to terminate net asset purchases from July 1st and planned to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points in July. Once implemented, this will This will be the first rate hike by the European Central Bank since 2011. At the same time, the bank said that if the inflation situation in the euro zone does not improve, the rate hike in September may be larger. Konstantin Veit, executive vice president and portfolio manager of global investment management institution Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), said in an email interview with a reporter from the Daily Economic News that the ECB’s statement leaves more room for later interest rate increases. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points in September, as inflation is unlikely to slow significantly before September. Inflation in the euro area is expected to remain high for the remainder of this year, which will add a lot of pressure to the European Central Bank. The World Bank said in its report that global inflation is expected to slow next year, but is still likely to be above its inflation target in many economies. In the report, the bank lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.9%, far lower than the 4.1% expected in January this year. The growth rate from 2023 to 2024 will also remain at this level. Note: The above interview content only represents the personal views of the interviewees and does not represent the position of "Daily Economic News" nor does it constitute investment advice.
The British Defense Secretary visited Kiev and held talks with Zelensky. Russia dispatched 4 Su-57s to form a team to hunt down the Ukrainian air defense system.
Image source: Screenshot of CCTV News Channel.
The CPI of the United States in May exploded. "Theory of peak inflation" Bankrupt Wall Street is frightened to raise interest rates by 75 basis points next week
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor on Friday showed that the U.S. CPI in May exceeded expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%, setting a new high in 40 years after March. , a month-on-month increase of 1.0%. At the same time, the U.S. University of Michigan's consumer confidence index recorded 50.2 in June, a record low. The latest CPI data poured cold water on expectations of "peak inflation" in the United States, triggering global market turmoil. U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday after a much-anticipated inflation report showed prices were rising faster than expected and consumer confidence hit a record low.
Image source: Yingwei Finance
The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 880 points to close at 31392.79 points, a decrease of 2.73%. S&P 500 index fell 116.96 points to close at 3900.86 points, a decrease of 2.91%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 414.21 points to close at 11340.02 points, a decrease of 3.52%. Apple shares fell nearly 3.9%, Salesforce fell 4.6%, and Amazon fell more than 5%. The British FTSE, French CAC, and German DAX also suffered heavy losses that day, falling 2.12%, 2.69%, and 3.08% respectively. Friday's losses mark Wall Street's worst week in months. The Dow fell 4.58%, its 10th weekly decline in the past 11 weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 5.05% and 5.60% respectively, marking their ninth weekly decline in 10 years and their worst week since January this year. The performance of U.S. finance and technology was at the bottom, and energy was a strong leader, but the performance in the single week still fell slightly. Faced with continued high inflation, the market has begun to speculate on the Fed's next move. Wall Street began to discuss whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Barclays has become the first major Wall Street bank to predict a 75 basis point interest rate hike, and even expects to raise interest rates by this amount next week. The swap market predicts a 50% probability of a 75 basis point interest rate hike in July. Bill Adams, chief economist of Comerica Bank (CMA, stock price $75.25, market value $9.84 billion), said that the longer inflation remains high, the faster the Fed will raise interest rates and the headwinds to economic growth will be The bigger. Falling inflation-adjusted incomes and a faster pace of interest rate hikes are expected to pose greater downside risks to the economic outlook. Ira Jersey, chief U.S. interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Industry Research, commented that we still believe that the Fed will not seriously consider raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time, but the market's pricing may reflect the possibility of such a rate increase.
Google and Apple face antitrust investigations in the UK
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According to foreign media reports on June 10, the British Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) plans to impose an antitrust investigation on Apple (AAPL, stock price 137.13 US dollars, market value 2.22 trillion US dollars) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL, stock price 2223.23 US dollars, market value 1.47 trillion US dollars) launched a series of antitrust investigations. The agency also said it plans to further investigate Apple and Google's influence in the mobile browser market and Apple's restrictions on cloud gaming. The CMA pointed out that 97% of mobile web browsing in the UK last year was conducted on Apple or Google browsers. In addition, Apple also restricts users from choosing other browsers on iPhone. The CMA conducted a market study into the mobile ecosystem and said it was concerned that the dominance of Google and Apple would stifle competition. The CMA said it will further investigate and evaluate Apple and Google and may formulate laws requiring the two technology giants to make changes. The relevant investigation will end on July 22. Apple said in a statement, "We disagree with some of the conclusions reached in the report, which underestimate our investment in innovation, privacy and user performance." Google said it will review the report and maintain communication with the CMA , also said that the company regularly reviews how to best support developers, and has responded quickly to feedback provided by the CMA in the past.
The trial of a new small anti-cancer drug was successful. All the tumors of 14 patients with rectal cancer disappeared.
html On June 5, a study published in the "New England Journal of Medicine" showed that the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Institute (MSK) in the United States A small clinical trial conducted by the pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK, stock price $43.8, market value $110.228 billion), an immunotherapy drug called dostarlimab, reduced the risk of colorectal cancer. All patients recovered. According to reports, the patients participating in the trial all have rectal cancers with the same genetic instability and have not yet received treatment. Each received nine intravenous doses of dostarlimab, a relatively new drug designed to block a specific cancer cell protein. According to reports, after six months of treatment, the trial results were very successful. None of the 14 patients who completed the trial required subsequent chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or surgery, and no disease recurrence was observed during the follow-up period (median follow-up time of 1 year , up to 25 months), and no patient reported grade 3 or above adverse reactions, and no one experienced significant complications from the drug.Four other patients in the trial are still receiving treatment, but the performance so far is equally promising. According to Science and Technology Daily citing the British Times report, the cost of each dose of the drug is approximately US$11,000 (approximately RMB 73,000). Patients were given it every 3 weeks for 6 months. David Ryan, chief of clinical oncology at Massachusetts General Hospital in the United States, said the results of this trial are significant for patients with cancers that have defects in mismatch repair. (Editor's note: The mismatch repair system is the main way to maintain genome integrity.)Apple's 2022 spring conference debuts iOS 16, M2 chips and other major debuts
Image source: Photo by reporter Zhang Jian (data map)
At 1 a.m. on June 7, Beijing time, Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) arrived as scheduled in San Francisco, USA. What upgrades has Apple brought to its iOS and other operating systems at this developer conference? What other new products are there?
Exxon Mobil's stock price exceeded 100 US dollars for the first time in 8 years
On June 8, Eastern Time, the oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil (XOM, stock price 100.46 US dollars, market value 423.192 billion US dollars) soared during the session, closing up 4.57% to 103.37 The U.S. dollar hit a new high in the past eight years and exceeded $100 for the first time in eight years. As of the closing of US stock market 10, Exxon Mobil closed at US$100.46. Its share price has increased by approximately 60% since the beginning of the year, with a market value of US$423.1 billion.
Image source: Yingwei Finance
The main driving force behind this rise is the tight crude oil market. Royal Bank of Canada (RY, stock price $100.61, market value $141.066 billion) believes that as one of the largest refiners in the United States, Exxon Mobil is expected to become the biggest winner in the tight supply of refined oil. Moreover, the company announced in the first quarter that it would increase its stock repurchase plan from US$10 billion to US$30 billion, which is expected to provide medium- and long-term support to the stock price. In addition, another major factor that has attracted market attention for Exxon Mobil is the company's high dividend. The company's dividend rate reached 4.06% on the latest ex-dividend date. Credit Suisse (CS, stock price $6.17, market value $15.855 billion), Goldman Sachs (GS, stock price $287.02, market value $96.991 billion) and Evercore (EVR, stock price $99.2, market value $4.027 billion) and other investment banks also continued to Be bullish on Exxon Mobil and raise its target price. Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta expects ExxonMobil's refining business earnings to increase and natural gas prices to continue to rise. Evercore ISI believes that although Exxon Mobil's shares have soared with rising oil prices, they are still relatively cheap.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases exceeds 1,000! Many countries have raised emergency alerts. Experts say monkeypox may be transmitted through the air. Image source: Visual China-VCG21be480f4cf
Director-General of WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
said that 29 non-monkeypox endemic countries and regions have reported to WHO. There have been more than 1,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox and no deaths. Monkeypox virus may have been circulating undetected for some time in some non-monkeypox-endemic countries and regions. Faced with the continued spread of the monkeypox epidemic, more and more countries and regions have "sounded the alarm." The US CDC has raised the monkeypox epidemic alert to level 2. It is reported that the highest level of the epidemic alert of CDC is level 3. The agency also stated that the monkeypox virus epidemic will not spread as easily as the new coronavirus. The U.S. CDC recommends that in countries where monkeypox is spread, "household contacts and health care workers" should consider wearing masks. "The New York Times" quoted expert analysis as saying that this suggestion may indicate an aspect of the current monkeypox outbreak that is rarely discussed: the virus can be transmitted through the air, at least within short distances. In addition to the United States, other countries are also upgrading prevention and control measures. The British Health and Safety Authority announced that from June 8, monkeypox will be listed as a notifiable infectious disease in the UK; on June 8, the South Korean government announced that monkeypox will be designated as a secondary notifiable infectious disease. The Canadian government issued a warning on June 7 that "strengthened health precautions" are needed.In terms of the COVID-19 epidemic, the World Health Organization's COVID-19 Weekly Epidemic Report released on the 8th local time shows that the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide every week has been declining since it peaked in January this year. In the week from May 30 to June 5, there were more than 3 million new confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally, a decrease of 12% compared with the previous week; there were 7,600 new deaths, a decrease of 22% compared with the previous week.The existence of the "source of life" outside the earth is confirmed for the first time.
According to Japanese media reports, Japan's Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology said that scientists have detected more than 20 kinds of amino acids in samples collected by the asteroid probe "Hyabusa2". Amino acids are the building blocks of proteins, organic molecules indispensable for the formation of life. This is the first evidence of the existence of amino acids outside Earth and is important for understanding how these crucial organic molecules arrived on Earth. In December 2020, the six-year recovery capsule carried by the probe "Hyabusa2" returned to Earth from the asteroid "Ryugu" more than 300 million kilometers away, and brought back about 5.4 grams of planetary surface samples. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and other teams analyzed the samples and detected more than 20 amino acids. Kobayashi Kenmasa, honorary professor of astrobiology at Yokohama National University in Japan, said that the discovery of multiple amino acids on celestial bodies other than the earth is "unprecedented" and may even hint at the existence of life beyond the earth. "It proves that amino acids exist underground on asteroids, increasing The possibility that these compounds could reach Earth from space.” It also means amino acids may exist on other planets and natural satellites, suggesting "life may have arisen in more places in the universe than previously thought." (Statement: The content and data of the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)
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Reporter | Lan Suying Zhang Lingxiao
editor| Wang Yuelong Lan Suying Du Bo
vision| Liu Yanqing
typesetting| Lan Suying
proofreading| He Xiaotao
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