Introduction
Recently, a video of immature green wheat being harvested for green storage has spread like fire on the Internet, triggering many people's anger about "wasting food", but at the same time, some people like it, or think it is Farmers' market choice, or think that " wheat has a shorter growth period, farmers have reduced expenditures and increased income, wheat straw no longer pollutes the environment, animal husbandry has developed greatly, the grain department no longer needs to purchase and store, the country will no longer suffer losses, and the farmers Fortunately, cadres no longer have to worry about farmers burning wheat straw. Economic benefits, ecological benefits, and social benefits have all improved. "
Are there any hidden dangers to food security? Do we need to worry? In 2021, China imported 9.7168 million tons of wheat, accounting for 6.5% of the total wheat consumption that year. Total wheat consumption in 2021 increased by 18.5% compared with 2020, of which milling increased by only 1.1% and feeding increased by 95.7%. China's wheat imports mainly come from Australia, the United States, Canada, France, and Russia. Among them, imports from Australia, the United States, and Canada account for more than 80% of China's wheat imports. China's wheat import volume in 2021 increased by 16% compared with 2020, but the import value increased by 31% [1].
Outside of China, world food security is in an extremely tense situation. The climate crisis, the new coronavirus epidemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war have all put the world's food security in crisis. In late April this year, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations once again called out that the Russia-Ukraine war had profoundly affected more than 50 countries in the world. These countries need to import at least 30% of their wheat, and global hunger has reached a new high. World wheat prices have risen sharply. The high of international wheat prices in 2022 (as of May) is 151% of the high in 2021, 202% of the high in 2020, and 232% of the high in 2019. Over the past year, my country’s domestic wheat market prices have increased by 11%, as shown in Figure [2]. It is unclear whether the use of green wheat for feeding is one of the factors causing the rise in wheat prices. Rising wheat prices may not necessarily increase farmers' net income, but they will indeed increase the food expenditure burden of grassroots people.
If the problem of global food security is still a distant concern for many Chinese people, the difficulty of food for people during the recent epidemic in Shanghai is a recent concern. Indeed, the issue of food security is not only the macro data balance of food supply and demand, but also the daily supply and distribution of food.
Is food security a problem? The readers' submissions posted today are intended to seriously discuss this issue. It is true that when it comes to food security, we cannot assume that farmers are the first responsible people. Food security is the responsibility of the whole society. Some of them may not be able to withstand the soul torture of a farmer selling green wheat: land is wasted every year Aren’t the real estate developers the most popular? [3]
author｜Chen Zhong, freelance writer. He has been paying attention to urban and rural capitalism, rural issues, and labor issues for more than 10 years.
editor | Hou Yi
background editor | fairy tale
text
One stone stirred up waves. There are still 20 days left before the wheat matures. Green wheat seedlings were harvested in the main wheat producing areas of Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Anhui and other provinces. Phenomenon.
A large number of convoys line up to the wheat fields to harvest the immature wheat in advance and use it as green storage fodder. Farmers can get 1,500 yuan or even 2,000 yuan per mu of land, which is significantly higher than the 1,200-1,300 yuan they can get from selling wheat. , it can also save time and effort, many people think why not do it. However, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an internal emergency call in response to this phenomenon, requiring all localities to comprehensively investigate silage wheat and other types of wheat damage, and deal with violations of laws and regulations together when found.
researcher at the Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences Jiang Gaoming published a statement saying: "It is not feasible to calculate economic accounts, risk accounts, and wheat storage. But many places happen to go against the laws of the market. What is the force behind it?" Are you promoting it? I hope the relevant authorities will pay attention to this matter. In the current very complicated domestic and international situation, we must not forget the important matter of food security - when the food crisis comes, money cannot be eaten!"
The truth behind the incident of harvesting green wheat seedlings suddenly became confusing.
As one of the main rations, wheat is related to people's livelihood and well-being and food security. After the green wheat harvest incident, another side of wheat emerged: wheat is not only used for common flour milling, but also used to make bread, steamed buns, and noodles. It has another important use as a substitute for feed in the breeding industry. When the price of corn is rising rapidly and the price is high, in order to reduce costs, feed companies and breeding companies will purchase wheat to replace corn as feed. The issue of "competition between humans and animals for food".
Corn is the "King of Feed". The direct or indirect use of corn as feed accounts for at least 70%. As the world's largest corn producer, consumer and exporter, China has witnessed the huge expansion of global corn demand, as well as domestic The growth in feed consumption and corn deep processing consumption is transforming into "potentially the world's largest corn importer." China's main import sources of corn are the United States and Ukraine . Superimposed on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, corn prices have continued to rise since 2022. Both spot prices and futures prices have reached record highs, and the demand for wheat substitution has surged.
In the article "Analysis of the Development Status of China's Wheat Industry in 2021, Development of Industry Planting Facilities, and Standardized Management", data show that my country's wheat milling demand will account for 69% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. The amount of wheat feed replacement increased, and the feed demand accounted for 25%, an increase of 10% year-on-year. According to National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates, in 2020/2021, my country's wheat feed consumption will be 38 million tons, a record high, an increase of 363% from 8.2 million tons in 2000/2001.
Image source: Huajing Industrial Research Institute
"The Development and Changes of Domestic Wheat Feed Consumption in the Past 20 Years" [6] published in the China Grain Economy journal. The author Chen Kang further studied the development of domestic wheat feed consumption in the past 20 years. Changes, the article pointed out, since 2007, the frequency and amplitude of changes in wheat feed consumption have accelerated, initially showing cyclical fluctuation characteristics, and two complete fluctuation cycles have been formed so far. Among them, the first peak appeared around 2012, when the wheat-corn inversion price difference reached a historical high. In 2021, the wheat-corn inversion price difference was close to 2012, and wheat feed consumption reached a new high. The second wave peak formed, which lasted for 9 years.
Picture source: Qianzhan.com
Not only that, compared to wheat as a feed substitute, using whole wheat as silage is actually not new. It is an emerging industry that has emerged in foreign countries in the past 20 years. Since 2003-04, publicity Research papers introducing foreign "wheat whole plant silage" gradually appeared in China, and soon became a popular knowledge in this area, and finally appeared in a mainstream academic conference in 2011 (the 16th Feed Production Professional Committee of the Chinese Grassland Society academic seminar). In the "Agricultural Knowledge" publication in July 2015, Tai'an, Shandong Province announced that "the province's first introduction of whole-plant wheat silage" was called a useful exploration in response to the central government's " grain to feed " policy. [7]
Picture source: "Agricultural Knowledge"
The reason why Shandong is at the forefront of the "grain-to-feed" road is closely related to Shandong's status as a province mainly producing animal husbandry. It is reported that the total output of meat, eggs and milk in Shandong has ranked first in the country for many years in a row. While satisfying the province's consumption, 1/3 of the livestock products are transferred from outside, mainly supplying provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Zhejiang. After the outbreak in Shanghai, Shandong actively connected with key areas such as Shanghai and organized 20 large-scale slaughtering and processing companies in the province to enter the list of meat supply guarantee companies in Shanghai. Since March, the number of livestock products imported from Shanghai has continued to increase, and only pork and poultry products have Amounting to 61,000 tons, pork accounts for more than 20% of the Shanghai market and poultry accounts for 50%.
In 2021, 6 feed companies across the country exceeded the 10 million tons mark, including New Hope Liuhe , Haid Group , Muyuan Shares , Twins Group , Wen's Shares and Zhengda Group . Ten-million-level enterprises totaled 90.88 million tons, accounting for 31% of the country's total output. As the industry leader, New Hope Liuhe, public information shows, was the largest Shandong feed enterprise Shandong Liuhe Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as " The product of the powerful alliance between Shandong Liuhe Group ") and New Hope Group . In 2011, New Hope Group completed the acquisition of the original Shandong Liuhe Group through its listed segment New Hope (000876.SZ) Merger and acquisition to form Shandong New Hope Liuhe Group Co., Ltd. .
In 2021, New Hope Liuhe Feed 's production and sales reached 28.24 million tons, making it the only feed company in the country to exceed 25 million tons. In order to quickly and flexibly adjust formulas and keep costs competitive when raw material prices fluctuate, New Hope Liuhe In terms of feed research and development, we continue to iterate and promote low-cost alternative raw material diet formulas such as wheat, sorghum, brown rice , etc., and launch non-corn mixed diets, whole wheat diets, and whole brown rice on the premise of meeting animal nutrition. Type diet and other formula strains.
"Wheat and rice are partly used as feed and will not have any impact on the security of our food rations." Qin Yuyun, director of the Grain Reserves Department of the National Grain and Material Reserves Administration, said publicly. [5] However, in May 2022, such a sudden incident of harvesting green wheat seedlings for feed caused great concern about food security in the agricultural and rural departments.
Will using rice and wheat instead of corn as feed affect the safety of rations?
In 2021, China Economic Network "Economic Daily" published an article "Beware of "Human and Animal Competition for Food" Affecting Food Security", which believed [6]: my country's rice and wheat production have been bumper for many years, inventories are at high levels, and the self-sufficiency rate for food rations exceeds 100%. We have achieved the food security goal of basically self-sufficiency in grains and absolute food ration security. There is not only enough rice and wheat to eat, but there is also pressure to destock. On the basis of ensuring the absolute safety of rations, using stored rice and wheat to replace corn as feed can not only alleviate the shortage of feed grains, but also help reduce the pressure of destocking. But what cannot be ignored is that corn and rice compete for land. Relevant departments have made it clear that this year they will increase the corn planting area in major producing areas such as Northeast China and the Huanghuai region in North China, which may squeeze the rice planting area. Therefore, using rice and wheat instead of corn as feed is not a long-term solution.
In addition, China’s food consumption structure is dominated by rice and wheat. From 2009 to the present, the correlation between CPI (Consumer Price Index) and domestic prices of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans is 0.93, 0.87, 0.29, and 0.19. CPI food prices It is basically consistent with the price trend of japonica rice and , and is strongly correlated with the price of wheat, but has little correlation with the price trend of soybeans and corn. Therefore, the impact of replacing corn with rice and wheat as feed can be seen in the impact on people's living standards.
On the surface, there is a competitive relationship between the development of the grain industry and the livestock industry within agriculture. In layman’s terms, it is the problem of humans and animals competing for food. In order to avoid the excessive development of the livestock industry from crowding out the grain industry, policy departments must coordinate this. Proper proportional development of the two major sectors, ensuring food self-sufficiency , matching the development of residents' living standards, reducing industrial production costs, and responding to international competition, etc. These seem to have become the mainstream meaning of food security.
But looking at a deeper level, today, when the agricultural commodity economy is highly developed, the socialization of production has significantly improved, and there is a general surplus of grain, meat, eggs, and milk, even if humans and animals do not compete for food, can ordinary people freely enjoy the abundance of food?
In 2022, the Shanghai epidemic caused great concern and great anxiety in society. Not only did the number of new coronavirus infections once reach 20,000 per day, but also the problem that people in such a huge Shanghai could not afford to eat or buy food.
Since the city was closed due to the epidemic in Shanghai, "difficulties in stocking food", "difficulties in buying vegetables", "difficulties in group buying" and "difficulties in distribution" have weighed on the shoulders of Shanghai citizens. People are worried every day about how long the food will last. ? When will Shanghai be unblocked? Even though the official statement at the Shanghai epidemic press conference was that emergency food reserves were sufficient, the actual situation is that most citizens are still unable to have their food guaranteed.
There is also a booming group buying trend in Shanghai. The group leader himself revealed that he earns one million a day, but the residents are having a hard time eating. According to reports, a pregnant woman in Shanghai was asked by community volunteers to knock on the door several times in the middle of the night because she was buying eggs for 30 yuan a plate. The pregnant woman asked her soul: Did I touch your cake? He also complained that if the community buys eggs in a group for 40 yuan a plate, is it okay? The follow-up of the incident was that the volunteer said that he was just following orders, because the eggs were not reported, did not comply with epidemic prevention regulations, and had a certain risk of virus transmission, so they came to the door. They also said that because of the epidemic, the community entered a silent period, and no one in the community could Group purchases require advance registration, qualification review, and approval before the group can be launched.
Obviously, the community group buying that exploded during the Shanghai epidemic is a huge agricultural product benefit chain. No matter what the benefit distribution of this benefit chain is, and no matter who participates in the benefit distribution, why should we take advantage of it? What about making big bets on food rations? Shanghai during the epidemic has burst the bubbles in food circulation and food consumption, making the true face of food security clear. The epidemic is a mirror that reveals all the demons and monsters who have ideas about people's food security. For ordinary people, food security is not about whether capital groups can ensure unshakable profits, market positions, and grain monopolies, but whether food can be freely consumed, whether life can be guaranteed, and whether can be distributed as needed.
Food security is not an empty slogan. It is fundamentally about ensuring that the people can afford to eat. However, the epidemic incident in Shanghai reflects that: food security has many loopholes in the guarantee of national power. The great abundance of material production does not mean that your food rations are safe. It lies between various capital interests. Competition and monopoly among enterprises prevent us from enjoying this security.
Marxism believes that a society’s material production method is the basis for determining all other social relations. Through the consumption link, the food security issues we see have actually laid its leads in the agricultural production method.
Back to the issue of wheat production, taking the largest province in wheat as an example, Henan Province produces one-third of the country’s wheat every year. Tuliu Group released the 2021 "Henan Province Land Transfer Market Analysis Report" pointed out that currently, Henan Province actually has 122.29 million acres of cultivated land, ranking third in the country. The province's land transfer area is 38.23 million acres, and the land trust area is 37.21 million acres. The proportion of large-scale operation area in household contracted cultivated land reaches 69.3%. Based on this calculation, the operating area of small farmers in Henan accounts for 30.7%, which is 37.54303 million acres. Calculated based on the per capita cultivated land area of 1.12 acres in Henan Province, the population of small farmers is approximately 33.52 million. The seventh census data shows that the rural area of Henan The population is 44.29 million. Based on this calculation, the population of small farmers accounts for 75.68%, reaching more than three-quarters!
It can be seen that in rural areas of Henan, three-quarters of the rural population (small farmers) only manage 30% of the farmland area in the countryside, while the other quarter of the population manages more than 70% of the farmland area. This is This is the current situation in rural areas today.
Let us further examine the income level of rural residents. In 2021, according to the results of the Henan Provincial Local Economic and Social Survey Team's survey on the cost and benefit of wheat production among 600 farmers in 120 towns and towns in 40 counties (cities, districts) in the province: In 2021, After deducting the average production cost of 531.34 yuan per mu and adding the average subsidy of 50.08 yuan per mu, the average production income per mu is 636.77 yuan. According to the survey team's caliber, the average production income per mu in 2020 was 519.64 yuan, the average production income per mu in 2019 was 414.34 yuan, and the average production income per mu in 2018 was 371.00 yuan.
Calculated based on 100 acres of land for a large grain growing household, the annual income from grain growing in 2021 will be more than 60,000 yuan, which translates to more than 5,000 yuan per month. It is estimated that the annual income from grain cultivation for small farmers who have not transferred their land (based on a family of five, average 5.6 acres per household) is only 5.6*636.77=3565.91 yuan, which translates to about 297 yuan per month. With such a low income level, it is no wonder that on May 28, 2020, when attending a press conference and answering questions from Chinese and foreign scholars, Premier Li Keqiang said: There are still 600 million people in our country whose monthly income is less than 1,000 yuan.
It is conceivable that when the tide of "human and animal competition for food" is fierce, how will the farmers who are struggling to have enough food and clothing view food security? As grain producers, whether they are small farmers or large growers, can they resist the "economic temptation" of 1,500 yuan per mu of wheat seedlings?
Reference articles:
[1] China Agricultural Science News Network, 2022-02-28, "Analysis of my country's Wheat Imports in 2021"; Hebei Provincial Grain and Material Reserves Bureau (hebei.gov.cn), 2022-02 -22, "China Wheat Market Analysis in 2021".
www.nkb.com.cn/2022/0228/396688.shtml
[2]FAO, “Surging food prices: FAO calls for import financing facility for poorer nations at G20 meeting”, 2022-04-20,
https://reliefweb .int/report/world/surging-food-prices-fao-calls-import-financing-facility-poorer-nations-g20-meeting; Macrotrends, “Wheat prices: 40 year historical chart”, 2022-05-19, https ://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-prices-historical-chart-data; "2022 Wheat (Medium) Market Price Chart", Wild Swan, http://www.yte1.com/datas /wheat-pr2?end=2022.
[3] Lao Yang Chatterbox, Tencent, 2022-05-14, "The farmer sister of the green storage harvest incident has spoken out: the real estate development that wastes the most land every year"
https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20220514A01W4Q00
[4] Chen Kang, China Grain Economy, 2021-06-18, "Development and Changes in Domestic Wheat Feed Consumption in the Past 20 Years"
https://www.feedtrade.com.cn/yumi/forecast/2021-06-18 /2134275.html
[5]China Grain Network , 2021-04-06, "Fed rations will not shake food security!" 》
http://www.agri.cn/province/gansu/fxyc/202104/t20210407_7643552.htm
[6] China Economic Net - "Economic Daily", 2021-02-04, "Beware of "human and animal competition for food" affecting food safety 》
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1690771952274137020&wfr=spider&for=pc
[7] Ziwu, public account "Midnight Scream", 2022-05-10, ""Malicious" acquisition of green wheat threatens food security, the culprit is Who is the culprit? 》
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Y6yIv3rRX-Pt8PkJ5UAs5g
