It is purely accidental. Xia Nai's status in Chinese academic circles in 1948 may have nothing to do with the election of the first academician of Academia Sinica at that time. He was just a member of the Institute of History and Philology of Academia Sinica. An ordinary associate researcher, an accidental opportunity brought him into contact with the first academician election. In the early summer of 1947, Mr. Fu Snian, the exhausted director of the Institute of History and Linguistics, went to the United States to treat high blood pressure after completing the re-establishment of Peking University. Instead of taking care of some important people, it was handed over to Xia Nai, a younger archaeologist who had emerged in academia. With Fu Sinian 's shrewd ability to recognize people, it soon proved that this was an appropriate choice.
Academia Sinica has become an important center of Chinese academic circles since its establishment in 1928. Its emergence is an important part of Cai Yuanpei's planned introduction of modern Western academic systems into China, which is of epoch-making significance. It has recruited most of the outstanding talents in China's academic world. As an academic institution, there may be few rivals in its lofty status in the world's academic history. Of course, the establishment of the Academia Sinica actually has the shadow of the Soviet National Academy of Sciences. At first, Academia Sinica had no academicians. The higher-level academic institution was the Council established in 1935, with thirty famous scholars elected. After the victory of the Anti-Japanese War, Academia Sinica was restored to Nanjing, and the establishment of academicians was considered among the upper echelons of the academic community.
The lists of Hu Shi and Fu Sinian have their own merits
The election of academicians is divided into three groups: physics, biology, and humanities. "Hu Shi's Diary" recorded the first academician discussion meeting of Academia Sinica on March 15, 1947. The deliberations took place within the scope of the Council of Academia Sinica. The Council at this time was the second term after the re-election in 1940. The Speaker is the dean of Academia Sinica, and the reviewers are divided into ex-officio members and appointed reviewers. The former are experts from Academia Sinica, while the latter are appointed famous scholars from major domestic universities and scientific research institutions. Of course, this is not entirely the case. Distinguish between these two items. In terms of humanities, the reviewers include Hu Shi, Fu Sinian, Chen Yuan , Zhao Yuanren , Li Ji, Chen Yinke , etc. When discussing how to elect academicians, Sabendong and Fu Sinian each proposed an election draft. Sabendong was a famous physicist who was the director-general of Academia Sinica at the time. According to my understanding, it was composed of liberal arts and sciences. Each person writes a plan for the reviewers to discuss and choose. Things progressed quickly, and the next day, a second meeting was held. The meeting focused on the second draft prepared by Fu Sinian. Hu Shi spoke highly of Fu's plan, and Fu's case was used as the basis for discussion. We can't find the draft prepared by Fu Sinian for the time being, but the future process should be carried out according to Fu Sinian's ideas. One of them is for the reviewers to propose a list of candidates for academicians of the discipline. Hu Shi soon drew up a list of academicians for the humanities group:
Philosophy: Wu Jingheng (Zhihui), Tang Yongtong , Jin Yuelin .
Chinese literature: Shen Jianshi , Yang Shuda , Fu Zengxiang .
Historiography: Zhang Yuanji, Chen Yuan, Chen Yinke, Fu Sinian.
Linguistics: Zhao Yuanren, Li Fanggui , Luo Changpei .
Department of Archeology and Art (History): Dong Zuobin , Guo Moruo , Li Ji, Liang Sicheng .
Hu Shi felt that he could not think of a suitable candidate for the time being in terms of human geography and ethnology. Around the same time, Fu Sinian also submitted a list of candidates for academicians of the Humanities Group:
Chinese Literature: Wu Zhihui, Hu Shi, Yang Shuda, and Zhang Yuanji.
Historiography: Chen Yinke, Chen Yuan, Fu Sinian, Gu Jiegang, Jiang Tingfu, Yu Jiaxi or Liu Yizheng.
Archeology and Art History: Li Ji, Dong Zuobin, Guo Moruo, Liang Sicheng.
philosophy; Tang Yongtong, Jin Yuelin, Feng Youlan.
language: Zhao Yuanren, Li Fanggui, Luo Changpei.
compares the two lists. They are roughly the same. Hu Shi's list is slightly smaller, with 17 people, while Fu Sinian's list has 21 people.Interestingly, Hu Shi did not include himself on the list, but Fu did not, which may reflect the personality differences between the two. Fifteen people included in both lists: Wu Zhihui, Yang Shuda, Zhang Yuanji, Chen Yuan, Chen Yinke, Fu Sinian, Li Ji, Dong Zuobin, Guo Moruo, Liang Sicheng, Tang Yongtong, Jin Yuelin, Zhao Yuanren, Li Fanggui, Luo Changpei and so on. It’s just that some people belong to different disciplines. Wu Zhihui and Hu Shi are in philosophy, but Fu puts them in Chinese literature; Zhang Yuanji, Fu Gui is in Chinese literature, and Hu Shi is in history. Hu Shi's list includes Shen Jianshi and Fu Zengxiang in Chinese literature, but Fu Sinian's list does not. Fu added Gu Jiegang, Jiang Tingfu, Yu Jiaxi, Liu Yizheng in history, and Feng Youlan in philosophy. The absence of Feng Youlan in Hu's list is related to Hu's low opinion of Feng. The academic interests of Hu and Fu may be highlighted from this list. After completing the list of academician candidates, Fu Sinian went to the United States for medical treatment, with Xia Nai acting as his agent. Fu arrived in San Francisco on June 14th. On July 11th, Xia Nai wrote his first reporting letter to Fu Sinian. From then on, there was an exchange of letters about every half month. All matters involved are involved in every detail. On September 1, Xia Nai began to mention the academician selection work in his letter to Fu Sinian:
Academician Nomination Review Committee has been held. According to Mr. Sa, this committee requires members of the committee to be eligible to represent representatives, and Bi Mawen (Journey to the West), who was not born in the mainstream, was unable to participate. Mr. Li Jizhi was asked to serve as a concurrent representative, allowing one person to cast two votes, but Mr. Li did not accept it. If my teacher does not want to abstain from voting, please entrust other representatives to attend. More than 400 people have been nominated this time, and the preliminary list will be decided when the council meets at the end of September. (According to Mr. Sa, the Senate is different from the academic meeting. Non-members can only attend the report and cannot attend on behalf of the members, so they have no right to vote.) Mr. Hu Shizhi came to Beijing to participate in the Academician Nomination Review Committee. When he called, he specified that he should live in At the Institute of History and Linguistics, the student gave up the office of the director because Mr. Hu left Beijing and returned to China within a week of staying there. Mr. Hu was a candidate for the director, and others could not follow his example.
"Hu Shi's Diary" has no record of this incident. It only writes in the diary on August 28: "Arrived in Nanjing in the morning." Departed Nanjing and arrived in Shanghai on September 5th. Hu Shi posted a newspaper clipping on September 6. The newspaper clipping did not include registration or date. In an interview with reporters, he talked about participating in the review of academicians of the Academia Sinica in Nanjing. The doctor started from attending the meeting of the Preparatory Committee for the Academician Election of Academia Sinica. He said: The first council meeting will be held on the 15th of next month to decide on the list of candidates and make an announcement. The second council meeting will be held next spring, and the election will be 80 years old. There will be one hundred academicians. From now on, fifteen will be elected every year by the academicians themselves. In ten years, the country will have more than two hundred academicians. The doctor considers this a national matter.
In mid-October, the Academia Sinica Council held another academician nomination meeting. Xia Nai wrote in a letter to Fu Sinian on October 6: The Council will meet on the 15th of this month. Mr. Chen Yinke has written a letter stating that he will not attend. Mr. Hu Shizhi and Chen Yuan (Yuan) will come to Beijing to attend and plan to stay at our office. Preparations have been made to temporarily vacate the director's office.
It is very likely that the institute is responsible for liaising with all meetings held by part-time staff of the Institute of History and Linguistics. Chen Yinke's failure to come to the meeting must be related to his situation. The weather is cold this year, and the Tsinghua University residences were originally equipped with water heating equipment. Due to lack of funds, they were unable to supply air, so each household had to provide heating by itself. Chen Yinke lived in poverty and had no money to buy coal to make a stove. He could only sell his collection of Eastern language documents such as the Pali Canon, the Turkic Dictionary, and the Mongolian Illustrated Chronicles to the Department of Eastern Languages at Peking University to use it to buy Coal, despite this, the coal purchased is only enough to install a stove in one house. Times were changing day by day, and Chen was blind, so he named his study "a room that cannot be seen as clean". He was so disappointed that he naturally had no intention of attending the meeting. Hu Shi convened a "professor meeting" at Peking University to discuss development, but all they talked about was eating. Xiang Da stood up and spoke: "We are worried about our lives tomorrow, so how can we have time to think about plans for ten or twenty years?" In ten or twenty years, all of us will be dead." Pessimism about life pervades the entire academic world.
Hu Shi and Chen Yuan arrived in Nanjing on October 13. The next day, the Institute of History and Philology held a tea party for all staff to welcome Hu and Chen. After Chen Yuan’s speech, Hu Shi applied the four principles of “diligence, prudence, gentleness, and relaxation”. The title is a word, and it talks about the methods of studying. The tea party hosted by Xia Nai was quite successful, and Hu Shi had a good impression. He wrote in his diary: "There are many talents in the Institute of History and Philology. Meng Zhen is indeed a good instructor." Hu Shi also brought Bai Bai from Harvard University Affiliated Hospital where Fu Sinian was treated. Dr. Purwell, director of Peter Bient Brigham Hospital, gave a letter to Xia Nai. The letter talked about Fu's improvement. Xia Nai, with Hu Shi's consent, published the letter throughout the institution. On the 15th, the Academician Election Preparatory Committee, composed of members of the Council, officially met. The director of Academia Sinica who was not a member of the Council attended the meeting. Xia Nai attended the meeting as an agent for the Institute of History and Philology. The reviewers originally nominated 510 people, but after preliminary review, 402 were left. The main basis for the qualification review was whether they held administrative positions in so-called pseudo-universities and other institutions in occupied areas. The famous chemists Zhao Chenggu and Sabon Tetsu were deleted as a result. Some people think that Guo Moruo sympathizes with the Communist Party and is more guilty than Zhao and Sa, and they also advocate that it be deleted. Xia Nai believed that this matter was of great importance, and regardless of his status as a non-voting witness, he could not participate in the discussion. He stood up and defended Guo Moruo, saying: "Member of Academia Sinica (academician of Academia Sinica) takes academic contribution as the standard. In addition, he can only secede himself from the people of the country." Traitors should be disqualified. As for political party affiliation, they should not be deleted because they are against the government." The opinions were very different, and it was finally decided to vote by secret vote. Xia Nai learned that the humanities group still decided to include Guo on the candidate list by a vote of 13 to 8. Although there are candidates nominated in some disciplines, everyone feels that they are not yet qualified to be academicians. When the mathematics and physics group was researching candidates for astronomy, various commentators proposed Zhang Yuzhe, a full-time researcher and director of the Institute of Astronomy of Academia Sinica, and Zhang Yun, a professor of Sun Yat-sen University and astronomer Yu Qingsong in Canada. As a result, it was decided that there would be a vacancy in astronomy, and no candidates were mentioned for the time being. Others who were not selected include meteorologist Lu Jiong, director of the Institute of Meteorology of Academia Sinica Zhao Jiuzhang, psychologist Tang Yue, etc. A total of 150 academician candidates were selected, including 49 in the mathematics and physics group, 46 in the biology group, and 55 in the humanities group. The review team officially allocated quotas, about 20 to 21 in literature and history, and 21 in social sciences. There are about thirteen to fourteen people.
Philosophy (official quota of three to four students, the same below): Wu Jingheng, Chen Yuan, Jin Yuelin, Tang Yongtong, Feng Youlan, Chen Kang.
Chinese literature (four students): Yu Jiaxi, Hu Shi, Zhang Yuanji, Yang Shuda, Liu Wendian, Tang Lan.
History (three persons): Chen Yinke, Fu Sinian, Gu Jiegang, Xu Bingchang, Xu Zhongshu, Chen Shouyi, Li Jiannong, Liu Yizheng, Jiang Tingfu.
Linguistics (three students): Zhao Yuanren, Li Fanggui, Luo Changpei, Wang Li.
Archeology and Art History (four students): Guo Moruo, Li Ji, Dong Zuobin, Liang Sicheng, Xu Hongbao.
Law (third to fourth place): Wang Chonghui , Wang Shijie, Yan Shutang , Guo Yunguan, Li Haopei, Wu Jingxiong .
Political Science (third-fourth place): Zhou Kunsheng, Xiao Gongquan, Qian Duansheng, Zhang Xiruo, Zhang Zhongfu.
Economics (four people): Ma Yinchu, Liu Dajun, He Kang, Yang Duanliu, Mr. Chen, Fang Xianting, Wu Baosan, Yang Ximeng.
Sociology (second to third place): Chen Da , Tao Menghe , Pan Guangdan, Ling Chunsheng , Wu Jingchao .
For the official election, Xia Nai advocated deleting two-thirds of the candidates. Some people on the
list were temporary nominations. Chen Kang, Hu, and Fu Yuan were not on the list. During the discussion, Hu Shi recommended Chen Kang because of his profound attainments in Greek philosophy; Li Jiannong was recommended by Zhou Kunsheng of Wuhan University, stating that Li is in China He has made great contributions to economic history and modern political history. Some people also asked why Xiong Shili , Zhu Feng, and Xiang Da were not included as candidates. Hu Shi gave an explanation. Hu Shi's explanation is not known yet. I only know that everyone had no objections after hearing it.
As the convener of the Humanities Group, Hu Shi not only presided over the meeting, but also rushed to write the "qualification basis" for the candidates for academician of the Humanities Group overnight on the evening of the 16th, which lasted until four o'clock in the morning. The committees were held continuously and the discussions were very intense. The final list was announced at 7 pm on the 17th. Compared with the actual number of candidates, thirty-one candidates were introduced for literature and history, 50% more than the original number, and twice as many for social sciences. Xia Nai estimates that half of the fifty-five people may have to be deleted in the future, leaving twenty-five to twenty-eight people. According to Xia Nai's opinion, two-thirds can be deleted in the field of literature and history, and two-thirds can be deleted in the field of social sciences. , especially in the legal and economic fields, although there are many listed, there are few suitable candidates. It cannot be said that Xia Nai's judgment will have much influence on the future academicians. The actual results were based on Xia's expectations. Among the eight candidates for economics, only Ma Yinchu was elected, and among the six candidates for law, only Wang Chonghui and Wang Shijie were elected. , and the latter is in the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Before the Academia Sinica review meeting, President Zhu Jiahua asked Xia Nai about the date of Fu Sinian's return to China and whether he could participate in the review meeting. Xia Nai also wrote a letter to Fu. Fu Sinian wrote a letter to the Senate about the academician candidates in the United States. The letter seemed to be very formal, with originals and copies. Xia Nai forwarded it to Sa Bendong, the director-general of Academia Sinica, and stated that it needed to be mimeographed and that some parts needed to be deleted. Other academician candidates may have been added to the letter, because Xia Nai later reported to Fu that "according to the regulations, no one can be added to the list of candidates, so Mr. Qi Shounan and others cannot join." From March 25th to 27th, the Senate held a meeting to discuss academician candidates. Non-members were not allowed to attend the meeting. There were no observers. Xia Nai did not attend. He told Fu Xin: "I have never participated in the meeting and cannot report it." So I don’t know the details at all.” After five rounds of voting, only 60 academicians were selected in the first round, and 81 academicians were elected after five rounds. Many celebrities among the candidates lost out. The General Office of the Academia Sinica compiled and printed the "Directory of Academicians of the National Academia Sinica" in April, which is now copied below:
Mathematics and Physics Group:
Jiang Lifu, Xu Baoheng, Chen Shengshen, Hua Luogeng, Su Buqing, Wu Dayou, Wu Youxun, Li Shuhua, Ye Qisun, Zhao Zhongyao, Yan Jici, Rao Yutai, Wu Xian, Wu Xuezhou, Zhuang Changgong, Zeng Zhaolun, Zhu Jiahua, Li Siguang, Weng Wenhao, Yang Zhongjian, Xie Jiarong, Zhu Kezhen, Zhou Ren, Hou Debang, Mao Yisheng, Ling Hongxun, Sabendong.
biological group:
Wang Jiaqi, Wu Xianwen, Bei Shizhang, Bingzhi, Chen Zhen, Tong Dizhou, Hu Xian, Duan Hongzhang, Zhang Jingyue, Qian Chongshu, Dai Fanlan, Luo Zongluo, Li Zongen, Yuan Yijin, Zhang Xiaoqian, Chen Kehui, Wu Dingliang, Wang Jingxi, Lin Kesheng, Tang Peisong, Feng Depei, Cai Qiao, Li Xianwen, Yu Dafu, Deng Shuqun.
Humanities Group:
Wu Jingheng, Jin Yuelin, Tang Yongtong, Feng Youlan, Yu Jiaxi, Hu Shi, Zhang Yuanji, Yang Shuda, Liu Yizheng, Chen Yuan, Chen Yinke, Fu Sinian, Gu Jiegang, Li Fangui, Zhao Yuanren, Li Ji, Liang Siyong, Guo Moruo, Dong Zuobin, Liang Sicheng, Wang Shijie, Wang Chonghui, Zhou Kunsheng, Qian Duansheng, Xiao Gongquan, Ma Yinchu, Chen Da, Tao Menghe.
The list of academicians represents a general situation at the highest level of Chinese academics at that time. According to the general reaction of the academic community, Xia Nai wrote to Fu Sinian in a letter dated April 20:
What this council did was just to elect academicians. After the list was released, outsiders generally thought that it was better than the list of candidates because its standards seemed to be stricter. Only a few people criticize its shortcomings: (1) There are many leftover pearls. (2) The elected candidates have too many colleagues from Academia Sinica and related figures. (This is unavoidable because they are "close to water and towers".) (3) Many of the older generations have stopped doing research work long ago, and they did not make any important contributions to research work when they were young. Although the so-called "politicians in the scientific community" have the second qualification of academicianship, they think the proportion is too high. However, this is a matter of opinion, and everyone has different opinions.
A considerable number of people in the Institute of History and Linguistics have been elected as academicians. Full-time researchers include Fu Sinian, Chen Yinke, Li Fanggui, Zhao Yuanren, Li Ji, Liang Siyong, and Dong Zuobin. Part-time researchers include Tang Yongtong. Communications researchers include Hu Shi, Chen Yuan, Liang Sicheng, Gu Jiegang, and Weng Wenhao. , half of the academicians in the humanities group are related to the Institute of History and Language. When Fu Sinian returned to China in August, Xia Nai relieved him of the very difficult responsibilities that he had held for more than a year. The first Academician Conference of Academia Sinica was held in Nanjing on September 23-24, 1948, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the founding of Academia Sinica. There were only more than fifty people in the group photo, which was highly regarded by the academic community. The concerned academician election took more than a year to be finalized.
Xia Nai is in love with "list science"
At the end of 1948, Xia Nai wrote "Analysis of the First Academician of Academia Sinica" (hereinafter referred to as "Analysis"). "Analysis" analyzes the situation of being elected as an academician from a purely academic perspective. Xia Nai used his extraordinary intelligence to conduct careful analysis and draw some comprehensive conclusions based on a "Directory of Academicians".
First of all, he analyzed the age structure of academicians. The core members are those between 46 and 60 years old, accounting for more than 80%, especially those between 51 and 55 years old, accounting for 30%. Point nine. There are almost no people over 60 years old in the mathematics and physics group, and there is only one person in the biology group, mainly because natural science started relatively late in China. There are as many as eight people in the humanities group who are over 60 years old. It can be seen that the humanities and history sciences inherit the tradition of simple learning in the Qing Dynasty. There are eleven students under the age of fifty in the mathematics and biology groups, and only one in the humanities group. The three people under the age of 40 are all majoring in mathematics. He quoted a senior in the field of mathematics as saying that genius in mathematics is the easiest to reveal. Genius mathematicians often have brilliant achievements when they are young. Chen Shengshen is the youngest, only thirty-seven years old, Xu Baoheng is thirty-eight years old, and Hua Luogeng is only thirty-nine years old.
Secondly, "Analysis" lists the birthplace distribution of academicians. Xia Nai coincides with Hu Shi's ideas. "Hu Shi's Diary" also has a distribution table of academicians' birthplaces, and laments that he is the only one from Anhui. In fact, he was born in Shanghai, but he just wanted to earn face for Anhui. The two provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang have the largest population, accounting for 42%. Reminiscent of Ding Wenjiang 's statistical results of modern Chinese figures, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the most prosperous. Xia Nai's discussion takes the place of birth as the starting point. Coastal areas, around Taihu Lake, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Changsha, and Minhou are all places where academicians are concentrated.
Third, "Analysis" talks about the academic qualifications of academicians. Except for six people in the humanities group who have never been to a foreign country to receive Western education, the rest have studied abroad.
Country Mathematics and Physics Group Biology Group Humanities Group Total
United States 17 17 15 49
United Kingdom 3 4 2 9
Germany 3 1 2 6
France 2 1 2 5
Country 1 1 2
Switzerland 1 1
Japan 1 1 3 5
and above study in the United States as the largest number, accounting for more than 60%. If Europe is included, the figure reaches more than 85%. Xia Nai noticed, "The number of Chinese students studying in Japan may far exceed that of students studying in the United States, but the proportion of academicians is very low. This is probably because most of the students studying in Japan return to China after receiving university education, and few remain in the country. Japanese graduates obtain higher degrees. "Most of those studying in Europe and the United States have obtained doctorates, and a few have master's degrees. Although a degree does not necessarily have any causal relationship with a person's future academic achievements. However, if you do some in-depth research work under the guidance of your tutor, you can understand the nature and methods of research to some extent. If you have an appropriate academic environment and personal efforts after returning to China, you will naturally achieve something easily.
As for further consideration of the education status of these academicians in China, among the six people in the humanities group who have not gone abroad to receive Western education, four were from the imperial examinations of the former Qing Dynasty and two graduated from national universities. Before going abroad, Tsinghua University had the most students studying abroad. Among the domestic schools, Tsinghua University was the most popular. I am afraid that more than half of the students studying in the United States were from Tsinghua University. In the distribution of each group, Tsinghua University is relatively even, Peking University is better in the humanities group, and other institutions have one or two places in each group. It roughly corresponds to the academic qualifications of academicians when they studied in universities in China.The quality of a school's teachers is naturally closely related to the talents it cultivates.
Finally, "Analysis" discussed the distribution of academicians' current work. There are 21 at Academia Sinica, 10 at Peking University, nine at Tsinghua University, six at technical institutions, and others such as Central University, Zhejiang University , cultural institutions and chief executives each have four, and other institutions and universities have less than four. Academia Sinica actually accounts for 26%. No wonder Mr. Xiang Da published an article criticizing: "The director of this academy and most of the full-time researchers are almost ex-officio academicians." "It makes people feel that all scholars are out of "The feeling of a royal official." Xia Nai has another explanation: If we assume that when Academia Sinica establishes each institute, it determines that this discipline has indeed produced an authoritative figure who specializes in this field, otherwise it would be better to lack it than to overwhelm it; and if the director is indeed the person in the discipline. Authoritative people, then the director's election as an academician would rather be considered a natural result. Only nine of the nearly seventy full-time fellows were elected, which does not seem to constitute a majority. Of course, the director and full-time researchers of Academia Sinica are naturally familiar with their work and contributions because of their proximity to the academy. In addition, human beings are emotional animals after all, and acquaintances who get along day and night have some feelings for each other. Maybe the people in the hospital took advantage of it. Therefore, Xia Nai suggested that if you meet someone with equivalent grades, you should give priority to someone outside the hospital as a courtesy.
Typical Western academic scholars, in addition to their own professional papers and monographs, have no more than two types of articles to write. One is book reviews, and the other is recall articles. Xia Nai's writings throughout his life are generally within this range. , the article "Analysis" is one of his few contemporary themes. Although his writing is still lively, he analyzes the elected academicians from a purely academic standpoint. In fact, it is also an overview of the growth process of modern Chinese academics, especially the reflection on the development of talents. The significance should not be limited to the turbulent 19th century. Forty-eight years.
In the winter of 1948, the government of the Republic of China was already on the verge of collapse. People's hearts and minds were in turmoil, and there was a lot of uncertainty. There were strikes and strikes one after another. Most of the academicians are university professors and research institute staff, and they are the people who feel the most oppression in life. Xia Nai wrote sadly: Although they are loyal to their duties, "but in an environment where their wives and children are hungry and cold, how can they teach others?" How can you concentrate on teaching and educating the next generation of scholars? "Xia Nai left the Institute of History and Philology of Academia Sinica with infinite regret and deep disappointment. After leaving the embattled Nanjing and returning to my hometown of Wenzhou, the winter this year must be very cold.
