, is a current affairs commentary columnist at Legal Library. This is the author's series of comments on the Taiwan issue "Will the "century-old" Kuomintang close down? 》Part 3. Legal reading library submission email: [email protected].
Related reading:
One: Will the "century-old store" Kuomintang close down?
Part 2: How can the Kuomintang, which fights internally but not externally, get out of the predicament?
The Kuomintang is facing internal and external troubles, and a heavy burden has historically fallen on the shoulders of the current chairman Hong Xiuzhu. At this time, the DPP also accelerated its pursuit of the Kuomintang. The " Party Property Council " froze the Kuomintang All bank accounts, for a time, even the salaries of current and retired KMT workers were difficult to pay. As the party chairman, Hong Xiuzhu said that he had entrusted an appraisal agency to conduct a valuation of his house, and planned to use the funds after the sale to meet the urgent needs of the Kuomintang's funds. Hong Xiuzhu, who was appointed at the critical moment, was about to stage a modern version of the "home-destroying bailout" drama. But, can this be used to bring back the KMT?
At least within the Kuomintang, not many people are optimistic that Hong Xiuzhu can lead the Kuomintang out of the predicament. Many people believe that Hong Xiuzhu lacks the strength of grassroots organizations and connections, and has not yet proposed a practical way to save the Kuomintang. In addition, other big bosses have their own agendas, and some are even eyeing him. Although Hong Xiuzhu has a commendable spirit, he may not be able to achieve great results. .
1. Hong Xiuzhu’s three options
Currently, there are three options in front of Hong Xiuzhu. Coincidentally, these three options can correspond to the three words of the name "Hong Xiuzhu":
Option 1: Do your best, Listen to destiny, use "the power of the wild", bravely advance forward, and turn the tide from collapse.
Option 2: "The trees are beautiful in the forest, but the wind will destroy them." Those who understand the current affairs are heroes. If you take a step back, the sea and the sky will be brighter.
Option 3: Instead of waiting for the Kuomintang to "change pillars for the second time", it is better to take the initiative to leave, or change the family, find another place to use, or play the role of "mainstay".
The author believes that based on Hong Xiuzhu’s increasingly frustrated character, option 3 can be eliminated first. In fact, from the examples of the New Party and the People’s First Party, we can see that if Hong wants to leave, it may have a certain effect in the short term, but in the long term Bubbles are inevitable, and the key to Taiwan's politics is the ebb and flow of one thing and another. The further split of the Kuomintang is exactly what the DPP hopes to see. As for whether Hong Xiuzhu should choose option 1 "advance" or option 2 "retreat", the author does not shy away from being humble and boldly gives Hong Xiuzhu advice, suggesting that Hong Xiuzhu choose 2, take a step back, and the sky will be brighter.
2. How should Hong Xiuzhu "retreat"?
According to the author's humble opinion, Hong Xiuzhu not only wants to retreat, but also "takes two steps back." So, which two steps back are they?
The first step for Hong Xiuzhu to make concessions was to support Mr. Lien Chan, the honorary chairman of the Kuomintang, as the "co-leader of the blue camp". He himself took a step back and settled for the position of "deputy commander" and "chief general". Mr. Lien Chan is the founder of the cross-strait "ice-breaking tour". He enjoys high prestige in the Blue Camp and is well respected in Taiwan and even in mainland China. Moreover, relatively speaking, Mr. Lien Chan is more mature and prudent and has rich political experience. Therefore, it can be said that to support him as the "co-leader of the blue camp" is what everyone expects. Under the banner of Lien Chan, Hong Xiuzhu's character of daring to act and speak out will be put to better use.
The second step for Hong Xiuzhu to make concessions is to announce as soon as possible that he will not participate in the 2020 "election" of Taiwan's leaders. Although the 2020 "general election" is tempting, if you take a step back, the sky is brighter. If Hong Xiuzhu puts all his energy into running for re-election as party chairman next year.Then, the "retirement" strategy has at least the following advantages: First, changing from athletes to referees requires a group of bigwigs who are interested in the 2020 election to first immerse themselves in contributing to the Kuomintang. By re-electing him again, Hong can immediately change from a "target of public criticism" to someone who everyone is competing to express goodwill and make friends with; the second is to decouple the 2017 party chairman election from the 2020 "general election" to avoid another early outbreak of internal conflicts in the Kuomintang and focus on Focus on preparing for the 2018 "county mayor" election and buy more time for the Kuomintang to reform; third, use this opportunity to announce that once elected, you will concentrate on party affairs and the reconstruction of the Kuomintang, and reconstruct the organization of the Kuomintang and the administrative elected team. relationship; the fourth is to resolve further crises within the Kuomintang caused by Wu and Hao's changes.
Many people can easily agree with the first of the above-mentioned concessions, but they may not understand the second concession, or they may be unwilling to do so. In fact, to be fair, in Taiwan's current electoral environment, in terms of personality, qualifications, age, and voter approval, Hong himself may not be the best candidate to compete for the "big position"; secondly, although Tsai Ing-wen's current polls are rapid, has declined, but its strength cannot be underestimated. Its current "cabinet" team is not the optimal lineup, and it is very likely that there are still options left. The Kuomintang is not sure of victory in four years; as far as the Kuomintang itself is concerned, the current situation is, Three feet of ice cannot be frozen in a day. Many problems can be said to be difficult to recover, and a lot of energy must be invested in reforming them. If Hong can concentrate on party work, it may be the best choice for everyone. .
3. Hong Xiuzhu's "retreat" is actually "retreating in order to advance"
Currently, many of the problems encountered by the Kuomintang are closely related to Taiwan's "party politics" and "electoral system". The purpose of Hong Xiuzhu's "retirement" is to better devote himself to the reform of party affairs and reform the relationship between the current party affairs institutions and the ruling team.
Taiwan's "party politics" has evolved from a one-party system to a multi-party system (essentially a two-party system) like Japan. However, in the process of evolution, its system design is very different. The core of Japan's elections is Political parties, so the ruling party can constantly change prime ministers; and the core of Taiwan's elections is to select "people". Once elected, it is almost impossible to change the leader midway. Therefore, in Taiwan, once elected as a "leader", he immediately becomes the center of power and controls a large amount of real administrative resources. To a certain extent, the political party is marginalized.
In addition to the "party system", Taiwan's "electoral system" is also worth observing. Although it is called "direct election", it does not adopt the American-style winner-take-all "electoral system" nor does it have a rigid requirement of "majority". The person with the most votes is automatically elected. This makes it rare for political parties to establish a mechanism for party cooperation, and it is not uncommon for them to undermine each other and poach others. Under this mechanism, electoral victory relies on "favoring one's face", as the candidate's own image may sometimes be more important than his or her governing philosophy; and secondly, relying on "competition", waiting for competitors to make mistakes, or trying to disintegrate and split the opponent's camp. For politicians who rely on this mechanism to come to power, the political party's binding force on them is very uncertain. It is not easy for
to change all this. In a certain sense, Hong Xiuzhu's "retreat" is actually "retreating to advance". "Retreating" is for better "advance". As for what aspects to "advance", Roughly speaking, there are several aspects:
1. Line evolution
Many people within the Kuomintang are still obsessed with the "each table" in the "one China, each table", and are obsessed with the "non-unification" in the "three nos" policy. They are happy to talk, but they forget that the Kuomintang was beaten by the DPP in these policy discussions and could only parry and had no power to fight back.
For example: If the water in a pool is acidic, the correct way to restore it to neutrality is to add an appropriate amount of "alkali" to it to truly neutralize it.What the Kuomintang has been doing before is trying to add neutral water to the pool, but this can only dilute it at best, but cannot stop the further fermentation of "acid" substances, causing the pool to become increasingly acidic.
The previous party chairmen of the Kuomintang may not have understood this truth. However, because he himself was holding or seeking to hold a government office, he was always shy and secretive in his public expressions. Hong Xiuzhu, who had no ties to administrative office, On the contrary, it can be more detached in this regard, and it can fully explain the evolution of the line from the "three no's" policy to the "anti-independence" stance on behalf of the Kuomintang, as well as the importance of this line to Taiwan society.
2. Organizational evolution
Apart from being an "electoral machine," the Kuomintang seems to have little role in other aspects. If it does not reform, it will almost become an "electoral party."
Hong Xiuzhu's appointment as full-time party chairman and no longer concurrently holding administrative positions is conducive to restructuring the new pattern of party-government relations. Efforts should be made to change the strange trend of "rulers" replacing "ruling parties" in Taiwan's political arena, and we must ensure that the Kuomintang's control over "administrative agencies" "The leadership of the appointment of responsible persons and other important personnel cannot be left to the "leader" alone; efforts should be made to expand the exchange of party affairs talents and administrative talents and improve the overall quality; the Kuomintang organization should be streamlined and slimmed down, especially young people. The power is enriched to the front line or elsewhere.
3. Progress in struggle
As the chairman of the Kuomintang, Hong Xiuzhu has to quell the sudden rebellion of Wu and Hao internally; externally, he needs to deal with the step-by-step pursuit of the DPP and the "Party-Property Association", and the struggle task is very heavy. No matter whether it is "internal struggle" or "external struggle", we must not have any illusions. The best way to solve the "fight" can only be to "end the struggle with struggle". The key issue is that the means of struggle must be continuous. progress.
In terms of specific struggle measures: In response to Wu and Hao's attack, in addition to the "supporting alliance" mentioned above internally, it is also important to unite Wang Jinping, Zhu Lilun and other forces. Many people disagree with this, and here are the following explanations: The main accusation against Wang Jinping is that he is a so-called "green skinned and blue-boned". Wang Jinping was born in Tainan and is a representative of the local faction of the Kuomintang. He has been the legislative president for many years. It has a good relationship with some big figures in the Democratic Progressive Party. These factors have given it a "green" color. However, a major mistake of the Kuomintang's struggle is that under the guidance of the Democratic Progressive Party, it has always advocated "anti-green" Not anti-independence", this will not only isolate the green camp voters from the KMT, but also further isolate and divide the KMT's local faction within the party. The KMT will only make further progress if it adjusts this policy to "anti-independence, not anti-green" as soon as possible. What’s more, in the coming struggle situation, many forces on the island may become political forces and agents of the United States and Japan in Taiwan. On the contrary, Wang Jinping, a localist who is pro-American and pro-American, Japan's position is not obvious; as for Zhu Lilun, both in terms of ability and reputation, he can become an important force to contain Wu and Hao. However, since he has just experienced a tragic defeat at the beginning of the year and is seriously injured, it is estimated that the asking price will not be too high, and he will take the initiative to unite. Zhu Lilun can also embody Hong Xiuzhu's mind and pattern of disregarding past grudges. Only by winning this struggle and defeating Wu and Hao and their backstage bosses could Hong Xiuzhu truly establish authority within the Kuomintang.
's pursuit of the "Party Property Association", in addition to raising funds to meet the urgent needs of the community, organizing forces to fight against its improper decisions, and seeking legal relief, Hong Xiuzhu's move of "destroying families to provide relief" has a greater significance. On a spiritual level. In response to this incident, the external world also needs to "stop fighting with fighting". In the face of powerful departments such as the "Party and Property Council", we can conduct human flesh searches for the historical misdeeds of its members. Once discovered, we will immediately launch an asymmetric attack with full firepower. The election will put strong psychological pressure on the members of the "Party Property Association"; internally, we should strengthen the streamlining of party affairs institutions, especially the reconstruction of grassroots organizations.The real intention of the DPP to spare no effort to pursue the so-called "improper party property" is to destroy the grassroots organizations of the Kuomintang through "drawing money from the bottom of the cauldron", because the grassroots organizations of the Kuomintang all over the country are the true strength of the DPP. Therefore, to measure the KMT's performance in this "foreign struggle", we mainly need to see whether and how the KMT has preserved its grassroots organizations and networks. What the KMT has to do is to follow the trend and streamline and transform local organizations at all levels. , especially by using this to straighten out the relationship between the local party headquarters and the central party headquarters, and establish a more efficient and smooth support and command system. Then, even if you suffer a little more and pay a price, you will still be invincible. of.
The situation of the Kuomintang at this time is quite similar to the crisis-ridden "Baicao Hall" in the TV series "Mansion Gate". Can the head of the family, Hong Xiuzhu, lead everyone out of this predicament like the second mistress of the Bai family in the TV series?
