The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its 134th day. The public attention caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been pushed to a climax again because the Russian army recently captured Lisichansk . After Putin made the remarks that "the Russian army needs a rest", Ukraine and the West thought that Russia was preparing for a short-term ceasefire. However, this time the Russian army once again disappointed the West. .
According to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s statement: Not only did the Russian army not take a break, it also stepped up its bombing of targets in Ukraine on Tuesday night. Ukraine needs to establish a modern and effective air defense system .
Zelenskiy’s implication is to let Europe and the United States provide Ukraine with high-performance air defense missiles, such as Patriot air defense missiles. However, the West has always had reservations about supporting Ukraine's advanced military weapons and equipment. Not long ago, the United States also vetoed the supply of MQ-1C drones to Ukraine because it wanted to prevent technology leaks.
If the West provides advanced equipment to Ukraine, it is likely to be captured by the Russian army. In this way, Western weapons and equipment will be used for research. This is obviously not the result the West wants to see.
Therefore, in the Ukrainian battlefield, the helicopters supported by the United States for Ukraine turned out to be Mi-17s, and the anti-aircraft missiles supported for Ukraine were S-300. Except for the accident that some light weapons were American-made, the only slightly heavier equipment left was the M270 and The M142 multiple rocket launcher has become . The reason why the United States dares to provide it is that Russia also masters the technology of this multiple rocket launcher.
If advanced attack drones are captured by the Russian army, it will bring technical support to the development of the Russian drone field. It can be seen from this Russia-Ukraine conflict that Russia’s achievements in the field of drones are quite worrying, and there are not many usable drones. Whether it is offensive or reconnaissance type, Russia is severely lacking.
Talking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, after Russia captured Lisichansk, it continued to launch attacks on military targets in Ukraine. It obviously has no intention of stopping. The governor of Donetsk in Ukraine also urged Donetsk Ukraine on Tuesday People were evacuated to help the Ukrainian army better fight against the Russian army.
Will the Russian army continue to attack Donetsk?
Although Russia continued to launch missiles into Ukraine and shelled some military targets on Tuesday, there was no sign of a large-scale ground war in the direction of Donetsk, and the Russian army may still rest and reorganize its troops.
①. The Russian army will definitely create pressure on Donetsk, but at present, the Russian army’s priority in the direction of Donetsk should be long-range strikes or air strikes. Only after the Ukrainian army’s will to resist is slowly broken down, will the Russian army Carry out large-scale machinery and equipment into Donetsk, because Putin also has to consider the fatigue of the army.
②. The Russian army must definitely swallow Donetsk, because completing the control of Donbass is the Russian army’s stated goal. The battle in Donetsk will definitely be difficult to fight. Although the Ukrainian army may strategically abandon Donetsk, there will definitely still be resistance, otherwise the West's aid to Ukraine will be reduced. Aid between Ukraine and the West is actually a transaction. If Ukraine admits defeat, the West will definitely no longer support it. The condition for the West to support Ukraine is that the Ukrainian army must resist the Russian army.
③ For Russia, it is not impossible to achieve control over Eastern Ukraine. After capturing Donetsk, it will continue to capture Dnipro and rule by drawing the Dnieper River, because such boundaries are clearer. It is impossible for the Kiev authorities to remain neutral and the West will not stop wooing Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether Russia will move towards the Dnieper River.
Let’s look at the conflict between Zelensky and the military. Ukrainian President Zelensky on Tuesday accused the Ukrainian military of announcing restrictions on Ukrainian military personnel without his consent. Zelensky said that in the future, the military The party must obtain its own consent before announcing such important information.
Is the conflict between the Ukrainian military and Zelensky serious?
Although some people think that the conflict between Zelensky and the military is quite serious, in fact this possibility is not high, and he is even playing a double act. Zelensky accused the military of restricting the activities of military personnel, which is related to the previous opposition of Ukrainians to restrictions on the activities of military personnel. This can enhance Zelensky's people-friendly image. As for the military personnel control issued by the Ukrainian military, Zelensky did not order it to be cancelled, but only expressed that it must be approved by himself.
① Although Zelensky’s background as an actor has been widely criticized, in this Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zelensky did not run away like some previous oligarchs . Without Zelensky's persistence, the Ukrainian army might have given up resistance long ago. From this point of view, Zelensky is indeed a tough guy. The Ukrainian military has no intention of rebelling against Zelensky.
②. Judging from the resistance will of the Ukrainian army in the Eastern Ukraine area, the Ukrainian army basically obeyed the orders of the Kiev authorities. Especially in the battle of Mariupol, it can be seen that Kiev refused to surrender, and Mariupol Azov Steel The trapped Ukrainian troops in the factory did not surrender in advance. The same was true in Lisichansk, where the Ukrainian army basically obeyed Kiev's orders.
③. In this conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there are very few cases of the Ukrainian army surrendering. It can be seen that the Kiev authorities’ control over the army is very different from that in 2014. His military reforms have seen results. Therefore, we cannot simply conclude from the appearance that there are huge differences between Zelensky and the Ukrainian military. In addition, Zelensky himself has received strong support from the West. Zelensky has been invited to make frequent appearances at major international conferences and has become a label for Ukraine.
Moreover, whether it is the United States or the European Union , the military and economic assistance provided to Ukraine must have been given to Kiev, and the military's wages are also paid by Kiev, so in the context of Western support, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian army will Fall out with Zelensky.
How should Zelensky define Ukraine?
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially a confrontation between Russia and the West. If the West does not win over Ukraine and Ukraine remains neutral, this war will basically not break out, because judging from the current results, Russia no longer has the ability to unilaterally cease fire if it wants. The ability to get Ukraine to cease fire as well. A protracted war is not a good thing for anyone, but no one side can dominate the war.
① As the president of Ukraine, before Biden took office, Zelensky did not show an overly radical attitude to win over Donbass. Instead, the two sides carried out low-intensity negotiations under the Minsk Agreement framework. military confrontation. That situation is not unacceptable to Russia.
②. With Biden taking office in the United States, the United States’ instigation of Ukraine has reached a climax. NATO 's support for Ukraine made Zelensky overconfident and began to gear up in the direction of Donbas. Not to be outdone, Russia chose special military operations to respond, and conflicts broke out between the two sides. Before the conflict broke out in Ukraine, Zelensky might have been able to avoid the war if he had chosen neutrality, but it was impossible for Zelensky to do so alone, because doing so would make Ukraine very disgusted and would be called a coward.
③, Zelensky still represents the will of Ukrainians, and this pro-Western choice is not made by Zelensky alone. But as a politician, Zelensky is not unable to prevent some things from happening, but obviously, Zelensky does not want to bear the "short-term infamy."
