The Chicago Bulls' results after a major personnel change this season are extremely surprising. They are very hopeful to move to a higher stage as the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, due to the impact of Lonzo Ball's injury, this team is in There may be some unwelcome moments in the future.
Due to a meniscus injury in his left knee, Lonzo Ball had to undergo mid-season surgery. Judging from the news disclosed by the team, the team management and Ball himself initially hoped to adopt a conservative approach of recuperation and rehabilitation, but it is obvious that such a strategy will not be effective for his injury. It had too much of a palliative effect, so they ended up having to undergo arthroscopic surgery. After he undergoes surgery, he is expected to be sidelined for a month and a half or even two months.
As one of the important reasons for the Chicago Bulls' excellent results this season, Lonzo Ball may be the most overlooked part of this team. Perhaps it is because DeRozan in the team has performed better and attracted enough attention from fans, but as long as you have watched the Chicago Bulls game video, you should be very clear about the existence of Ball. For the help it brings to this team.
Whether it is his shooting performance on the court, his defensive quality, or his passing organization, his excellent performance in all aspects is an important reason why this team can reach this point.
For the Bulls , this month's game is indeed a bit difficult for them to accept. Not only did they lose Lonzo Ball on the back line, but Zach LaVine also had to be on the sidelines due to a knee injury. He withdrew from the game before, and then Caruso was unable to play due to a fractured bone.
So far, the Bulls have a record of 31 wins and 18 losses. Although they are still ranked second in the Eastern Conference, their win difference advantage is not obvious compared to the teams behind them. Judging from the current situation of their respective teams in the Eastern Division, they are very hopeful that they can achieve a lead in record rankings within a few games. Therefore, considering that Lonzo Ball will not be able to play for more than a month in the future, this is undoubtedly an extremely worrying point.
Let’s analyze from our personal perspective the impact that Lonzo Ball’s absence will have on this team:
First of all, Ball’s absence will be a big challenge for the Bulls’ bench depth. .
Of course, we cannot completely blame this problem on Ball's absence. Originally, after they lost Lonzo Ball on the back line, they could still have other personnel to supplement them, but because of Caruso and The injuries to Zach LaVine and others will undoubtedly have a great impact on the team's subsequent defensive performance and on-field organizational level.
From this perspective, the Chicago Bulls were actually affected by the wave of injuries early on.
In late October, Patrick Williams was unable to play due to an injury to his left wrist. Judging from the current situation, it will be difficult for him to appear on the court in the remaining games of this season.
As a replacement for Patrick Williams, Jevonte Green appeared in this position. Although from the current point of view, his performance is not bad, he has also appeared due to groin injury. A period of recuperation. Their subsequent choice of Derrick Jones was also interfered with by some injuries.Due to recurring injuries at this position, they could only use a two-way contract to acquire 24-year-old Tyler Cook as a supplement.
In addition to the injury at the fourth position, the core personnel on the back line are not optimistic either. Zach LaVine also had a lot of trouble due to knee injuries before. Although he did not miss too many games because of these things, this undoubtedly planted a time bomb for their subsequent schedule.
There were too many players on the team affected by injuries, so the Chicago Bulls had no choice but to use a guaranteed contract to keep Alfonso McKinney , and even dismissed him in some games. Here comes the starting lineup.
In addition to McKinney , the team also paid a two-way contract to the 26-year-old rookie Malcolm Hill to share the playing time of the core players.
Judging from the above situations, the Chicago Bulls' prospects seem a bit dangerous, but these things only stay under the condition of uneven team rotation. From our personal perspective, we still have an optimistic attitude towards this team.
They previously had an excellent nine-game winning streak in late December. However, among these nine games, due to health and safety regulations, Lonzo Ball only played in four games. In the remaining games, most of the time his replacement was Kobe White .
It was also during this period of games that we saw another possibility for the Bulls on the back line. Coby White can appear on the court as a substitute for Ball and Caruso, although he is There is a certain gap in the defensive performance of the back line compared to the former two players, but judging from the game video, his personal scoring efficiency this season has been significantly improved, and these can all be improved to a certain extent. To some extent, it makes up for his defensive shortcomings.
In addition to Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, whom they acquired in the second round of the 2021 draft, also performed well in the substitute role. If you take into account that the back line has not improved much in the subsequent time, then Dosunmu is likely to be given more opportunities in this team.
As a newcomer to the league, before Dosunmu entered the league, the negative evaluation of him from the outside world came more from his deficiencies on the offensive end, so he fell to the second round in the draft. But judging from his performance so far this season, Dosunmu was able to shoot 53% from the field and 44% from three-point range with limited shooting opportunities. Such performance is undoubtedly worthy of the head coach's praise. He trusts more.
No matter from which point of view, Ball's injury is undoubtedly a loss for the Bulls. At the same time, it is also another test for the team and the head coach. They need to seize the opportunity of the subsequent regular season. Avoid putting yourself into a disadvantageous position entering playoff .
Secondly, Ball's absence will also have a huge impact on the team's defense.
At the beginning of the season, the Chicago Bulls showed a very strong team defensive performance as a whole, and therefore they were able to start with a very good record.
In the first 30 games of this season, when they faced it with a complete lineup, they posted a top-10 defensive efficiency in the league. Due to subsequent restrictions on health and safety regulations, Ball was unable to play. After he returned after the restrictions were lifted, Caruso entered the watch list again.
The combination of these various factors has greatly restricted the Bulls' use of rotation personnel on the back line, thus causing a considerable decline in their overall defense. Their defensive performance in the games in late December was extremely poor, and the team's overall defensive efficiency once dropped to 22nd in the league.
Due to the defensive problems caused by the absence of players, the Bulls' current performance is far inferior to their state at the beginning of the season. Although they are still in a favorable position in the top half of the Eastern Conference, judging from the performance of the regular season schedule, it is quite difficult for them to win many games.
If we discuss the defensive ability of an individual player, then the current Lonzo Ball may be slightly inferior to Caruso. Judging from team statistics, when Caruso is taken off the court, the Chicago Bulls' points loss increases by 10.5 points per 100 possessions. Among all players in the league who have played more than 600 minutes, Caruso ranks third in the league on this data list.
Therefore, Caruso's absence is the most fatal factor for the Chicago Bulls' defense. But even so, we still cannot ignore Ball's impact on the defensive end of this team.
When both of them are unable to play, any adjustment lineup the Bulls put forward will be difficult to fill this hole. The most obvious change is that when the two of them are unable to play, opponents can frequently cut from the outside into the team's penalty area. The opponent's shots in the penalty area account for more than 40% of the team's overall shots.
When the Bulls put Ball on the court, this data will be limited to 35%. Although this number is not very good, at least it is qualified for their overall defense. But now these things will not appear until more than a month later.
Even if Caruso returns healthy in subsequent games, head coach Donovan should make key adjustments to his playing time. Considering that he currently averages 27.7 minutes of playing time per game, this has reached the highest point of his personal career playing time. Even if he returns in the future, there will be a certain reduction in this aspect due to injury considerations.
Finally, let’s take a look at the impact of Lonzo Ball’s absence on the Bulls’ record in the subsequent schedule.
Judging from the news revealed by the team, Lonzo Ball has a high probability of returning at the end of the regular season. However, in the second half of the game when he is absent, this is likely to have an impact on the team's playoff prospects. Ranking has a huge impact.
As we mentioned above, although they are still ranked second in the Eastern Conference, the gap from the teams behind them is not too big. We do not rule out that they will slip to the second half of the playoffs in subsequent games. process or even the location of the threshold area.
According to the probability of each team advancing to the playoffs given by the media, the Bulls’ regular season record prediction is 48 wins and 34 losses, ranking fifth in the Eastern Conference. The probability of advancing to the playoffs Reached 81%.
Judging from this prediction, although entering the playoffs with fifth place in the Eastern Conference can allow the Bulls to avoid the danger of the play-offs, they have also basically lost their home court advantage. In comparison, if they can maintain their position in the top three, then they will greatly increase the possibility of advancing to the second round when facing teams that advance through the play-offs.
Judging from the remaining schedule of this season, the Bulls still have more than 30 regular season games in the follow-up. Regarding the playoff rankings they can finally hand over, there are indeed huge variables..
We must admit that during the first period of the season, the performance of this team was definitely good enough. But now they face a huge problem. They are very likely to fall to the bottom of the playoffs due to subsequent failures.
Considering that the last time the Chicago Bulls made the playoffs was in the 2016-17 season, the leader of the team at that time was Jimmy Butler. As a team that once again has playoff hopes after a long absence, we naturally hope that the Bulls can maintain more chances of winning and go further in the playoffs.
If you want to achieve these goals, then during the next period when the team is short of major generals, all members of this team must show enough unity and tenacity. Although judging from the current situation, the Bulls are still in a difficult situation. On the advantage side, but the future prospects are not as relaxed as they are.
