Reporter Yao Yao
" The National Grain and Material Reserves Administration will release copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches in the near future. This news only intensifies the market's expectations for copper oversupply." Galaxy Futures Nonferrous metals researcher Wang Yingying told a reporter from Securities Daily.
html On June 16, the State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves announced that in accordance with the State Council executive meeting’s arrangements for ensuring supply and stable prices of bulk commodities, the bureau will release copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches in the near future. The investment is aimed at non-ferrous metal processing and manufacturing enterprises, and open bidding is implemented.As of 5:00 on June 17, Beijing time, the price of COMEX copper futures has fallen for three consecutive trading days, with the cumulative decline in the three days reaching 3.36%. As of 15:00 on June 17, within three trading days, the main contract of Shanghai Copper also fell by 2.90%. "The correction in copper prices is related to multiple factors. As a product with strong linkage with the international market, it is mainly directly related to the trend of international copper prices." Wang Yingying said.
Wang Yingying further explained, "This round of decline in copper prices is related to the shift in macroeconomic sentiment overseas. Recently, the United States released May CPI data, employment data improved, and the latest Fed interest rate meeting minutes showed that the Fed's attitude was more hawkish than before The market's expectations for tightening of monetary policy have increased. Judging from the latest retail sales data, consumption is gradually shifting to the service industry, and manufacturing consumption may decline. The logic of monetary easing + overseas economic recovery that previously supported copper prices has basically begun to loosen. On the other hand, the supply of copper mines is relatively loose this year. We expect that there will be a surplus of about 200,000 tons of electrolytic copper. "It has had an impact." Mao Junyue, investment director of Xinpu Assets, analyzed to a reporter from Securities Daily: "First, the State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves will implement reserve release; second, the Federal Reserve may tighten currency in advance, and the market will react in advance to this. "Third, the next quarter is the off-season for industrial consumption, and there will be an oversupply situation in the short term."
With the gradual correction of copper prices, it will also have a positive effect on the corresponding sectors of the A-share market. Take the Oriental Fortune wire and cable sector as an example. As of the close at 15:00, the sector rose 1.66% today to close at 1360.99 points. A total of 15 stocks rose in the sector, accounting for more than 50%. In terms of individual stocks, Luxiao Technology rose by the daily limit, and Great Wall Technology also rose by 7.40%.
The market price of the wire and cable sector is also related to financial factors. Flush data shows that large order funds are actively rushing to raise some stocks in the wire and cable sector. Today, a total of 8 stocks received 247 million yuan in large order funds to raise funds. Roxiao Technology received the largest net inflow of large order funds, up to 223 million yuan; Far East Shares , Baosheng Shares and Amkor Intelligent Electronics' large The net inflow of single funds also reached more than 5 million yuan, which were 8.2275 million yuan, 6.2368 million yuan and 5.1261 million yuan respectively.
From a performance perspective, as of June 17, a total of 3 of the 28 companies in the wire and cable sector have taken the lead in disclosing their performance forecasts for the first half of 2021. Among them, Amkor Smart Electric and Huatong Cable have achieved their performance forecasts respectively. Hi, Amkor Smart Electric's forecasted net profit in the first half of the year has a year-on-year growth cap of 98.20%, and the forecasted net profit cap has reached 130 million yuan.
In this regard, Wang Yingying said: "The decline in copper prices may be beneficial to the cable industry. Because the State Grid cable bidding pricing is generally based on the average price of the previous month, during the decline in copper prices, the purchase price of wire and cable companies is often lower than the sales price "
Regarding the future trend of copper prices, Wang Yingying believes that "copper prices may form a volatile downward trend. The market is currently focusing on US employment and CPI data, and employment data may improve after June. , when the U.S. government no longer needs to issue large amounts of fiscal subsidies, the Fed's motivation to implement quantitative easing policies will inevitably weaken, and the futures market will react in advance.Hu Bo, the fund manager of
private equity ranking network , held a different view. He told a reporter from Securities Daily: "From the market perspective, the correction of copper is actually limited. In the later period, as demand grows, copper prices will continue to rise. space, so it is necessary to focus on the demand-side situation such as the U.S. real estate construction cycle and new energy vehicle consumption. ”
Table: List of net inflows of funds into individual stocks with large orders in the wire and cable sector on June 17
Table made by: Yao Yao
(Editor Cai Shandan Planning Zhang Ying)
