Today’s Hot Topics
. Phison Pan Jiancheng: NAND will be in short supply in Q2 next year
2. Metaverse storage is in short supply, and DDR5 prices are rising
3. The material shortage is easing, and storage supplier Aipu will have strong growth momentum next year
4. Production capacity will continue to be tight in 2022
5. Nomura: The profit trend of the semiconductor industry continues to increase
1 Phison Pan Jiancheng: NAND will be in short supply in Q2 next year
According to the Taiwanese media "Business Times" report, Pan Jiancheng, CEO of NAND Flash main control factory Phison, expects that NAND Flash will be available as early as the second quarter of 2022. In the hope that the market will recover again, Phison is currently trying its best to grab goods from original storage manufacturers. It is expected that the inventory gap will be as high as 22 to 24 billion yuan after the Spring Festival. It hopes to make up for the inventory gap and usher in automotive and e-sports products in 2022. , industrial control demand business opportunities.
The NAND Flash market will begin to weaken in the second half of 2021 due to long-term shortages and the recovery of the epidemic, and the price will begin to enter a correction. However, Pan Jiancheng pointed out that even if the current NAND Flash market demand is not as hot as the market conditions in the first half of the year, storage manufacturers have released The number of NAND Flash wafers shipped is still not as high as expected, indicating that NAND Flash original manufacturers are still quite optimistic about the outlook for 2022.
In fact, due to the limited cost reduction due to the improvement of NAND Flash process, it has bid farewell to the 45% annual cost reduction of the previous 2D generation. In addition, international raw material prices and clean room construction costs, so NAND Flash original manufacturers In order to recover costs, R&D and market development resources have begun to be invested heavily in the high-end market to maintain gross profit margins, and the vacant market will be captured by other module manufacturers and main control manufacturers.
2 Metaverse storage is in short supply, and DDR5 prices are rising
According to the Taiwan media "Economic Daily", high-speed computing technology including Metaverse has brought storage into the new generation of DDR5. DDR5 modules are out of stock and prices are rising. The three global DRAM giants Samsung , SK Hynix , Micron have also begun mass production of DDR5; the Financial Products Department of Uni-President Securities stated that the stock prices of Samsung and SK Hynix have performed well recently with the support of foreign capital, and the proportion of the two stocks of Uni-President Asia Semiconductor ETN Reaching 30%, the recent net value of ETN (Exchange-Traded Notes, exchange-traded bonds or exchange-traded notes, generally bond products issued by investment banks) has also reached a new high after issuance.
Legal representative said that what DDR5 needs to improve is the bandwidth demand. Compared with the evolution of previous generations, it is quite revolutionary. For example, in addition to the VR device required by the popular metaverse, the storage usage required by the back-end data center is also It must be significantly improved. Driven by the new platform, it is imperative to upgrade DRAM to DDR5. Samsung recently announced that it has begun mass production of 14nm DRAM based on EUV technology and is currently the smallest in the industry. It will be put into large-scale servers, data centers and other markets in the future; SK Hynix will use 1ynm and 1anm to produce DDR5 early next year.
3 Material shortage has eased, and storage supplier Aipu will have strong growth momentum next year.
According to Taiwan media "Financial News Express", storage and IP supplier Aipu mentioned its subsequent operating prospects, benefiting from the gradual relief of material shortage, and is expected to Shipments will pick up, and operations are expected to be strong in the first quarter of next year. In addition, it was also revealed that it has joined hands with Power Semiconductor to officially enter the semiconductor process integrated passive component (IPD) market, plus IoT and WoW (Wafer-on-Wafer) , an advanced packaging technology) continues to increase in volume and will have strong growth momentum next year.
First of all, regarding the operating outlook, Apple analyzed that the previous shortage of electronic products or semiconductor chips, which affected its own shipments, has improved since December. It is expected that shipments of PSRAM and niche DRAM will begin to gradually has rebounded, and overall operations in the first quarter of next year are also optimistic.
In addition, the heterogeneously integrated WoW advanced packaging has been put into mass production in the second half of this year, and DRAM revenue has reached 600 million yuan. Judging from the orders received, there will be 10 projects that will be introduced into mass production.
4 Semiconductor packaging and testing production capacity will continue to be tight in 2022
According to Taiwan media "Science and Technology News", looking forward to the market situation of the semiconductor packaging and testing industry next year, the industry expects that production capacity will increase but will continue to be tight, and the demand for packaging and testing materials will continue to strengthen. However, it is necessary to observe factors such as inflation , whether the supply chain supply is smooth, the impact of long and short materials on modules, and the supply status of semiconductor wafer production capacity next year.
Looking forward to next year's packaging and testing industry trends , the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) estimates that the global semiconductor test equipment market will reach US$8 billion next year, an increase of about 5% compared with this year.
Looking forward to the packaging material market next year , Huang Jianeng, chairman of the lead frame factory, said that the semiconductor industry will remain prosperous next year, and it will be a year of shortage of semiconductor and a year of tight supply; General Manager Zhang Hongji of Liji expects that the semiconductor industry will remain prosperous next year. The demand for wire packaging materials is strong, and the performance of packaging materials next year is expected to grow.
5 Nomura: The profit trend of the semiconductor industry continues to rise
According to the Taiwan media "Economic Daily" report, Nomura Securities analyzed the performance of semiconductors next year: The profit trend of the industry continues to rise, and the first quarter of next year is expected to be not weak in the off-season, and with the wafer After new OEM production capacity is launched one after another, the industry cycle will face a high point.
Nomura analyzed that due to the two major factors of the new coronavirus and US-China tensions, the supply and demand market conditions of the semiconductor industry will remain tight in 2021; compared with a year ago, the semiconductor industry has seen six changes, including an increase in inventory turnover days, vaccination rate increase, the separation of Huawei and its sub-brand Honor , the impact of US sanctions on SMIC on the industry has not further worsened, wafer foundry continues to increase capital expenditures, and semiconductor evaluation revisions.
Overall, Nomura is optimistic that semiconductor stocks are expected to continue to strengthen in the first quarter of next year, including foundry, smartphone chips, servers, PCs, high-speed computing, high-speed transmission, cloud and China’s semiconductor localization supply chain, etc. All are the focus of the semiconductor industry.
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