If the stock market is a tragicomedy, then the new energy sector must be the climax. From November last year to now, the new energy sector has experienced a roller coaster ride.

If the stock market is a tragic comedy , then the new energy sector must be the climax of it. From November last year to now, the new energy sector has gone through a roller coaster market.

Let’s first look at the previous falling market.

Taking the leading CATL as an example, the stock price fell from 692 yuan in November to a low of 353 yuan in April, a drop of 47.2%. This has all been calculated. Tianci Materials, the leader of electrolyte , was even worse. The stock price fell from 85 yuan to 32.44 yuan, a drop of 60%.

Looking at various stocks in the new energy sector comprehensively, a 40% fall is considered a minor injury, a 60% fall is the median , and there are many stocks that fell 70%-80%. Those who were not afraid of death last year to chase the rise of new energy will definitely be miserable this year. The reason for the decline of

is also very clear.

The new energy sector used to be the hottest track in the market. Its valuation has been wildly speculated by group funds, and its capital attributes are full of long-short games and speculation. Therefore, when the Federal Reserve was expected to start an interest rate hike cycle in November last year, the overall market risk appetite dropped sharply, so when the capital tide ebbs, early settlement is the smartest thing to do.

As of March, the risk of interest rate hikes and has not been eliminated, and the Shanghai epidemic has taken up the baton again. As a barometer of the economy, automobile consumption will lead to prosperity and loss. Regardless of whether the final performance is reflected or not, the stock price must be reflected first.

In one sentence, the new energy-related sectors at this stage have ended and people have dispersed. No matter you are a car manufacturer, a battery manufacturer, a leader, or a chicken paw, when the game music stops, grabbing a stool and sitting down is the way to survive.

Therefore, the decline of new energy for half a year is reasonable and reasonable.

It’s just that if God wants you to be crazy, he will destroy you first.

rises as sharply as it falls. As the sentiment for raising interest rates weakened and the epidemic in Shanghai came to an end, the two major suppressive factors were lifted, and the new energy sector rebounded collectively.

In addition to the strong rebound of the major leading stocks mentioned earlier, what is even more surprising is that some second-tier stocks, such as power battery supplier Guoxuan Hi-Tech , saw their stock prices fall from 66 yuan to 22 yuan, and then rose back to 44 yuan, which is equivalent to First it dropped 66%, and then doubled again. Is it exciting?

In this way, new energy has gone through a roller coaster market in half a year. I don’t know how many leeks cut the flesh, and I don’t know how many institutions have liquidated their positions.

And here, in the decline and rise, the changes in market logic are fully revealed.

First of all, vehicle manufacturers have become the targets of market bets.

In this round of market conditions, the ones that have fallen the least and risen the most are our new stock kings, "Di Mao" BYD . In the decline at the beginning of the year, BYD only fell 24.3%, which was only slightly injured compared to its peers; when it rebounded, it was the strongest and soon reached a new high.

From an operational perspective, BYD is leveraging the explosive sales of its models to expand vertically in the fields of batteries and lithium mines , which has the potential to engulf the entire industry chain.

In the field of power batteries, according to market data, Honeycomb Energy has a planned production capacity of 600GWh, China New Aviation has a planned production capacity of 500GWh, and Guoxuan High-Tech has a planned production capacity of 300GWh, plus Fudi Battery (under BYD), Dayu Battery ( Great Wall Motors (subsidiary), the power battery field will inevitably have a bloody storm in the future.

It’s no wonder that funds make the choice. Maybe in the future, only the leading car companies will be left with the power of life and death in the industry, while power battery manufacturers can only stand by and act like minions.

Of course, no matter how much you bet on the market, you are just buying the leader.

For example, Great Wall Motors, which is also an automobile manufacturer. When BYD hits a new high with great success, its products have also sold well in recent years ( Euler , Tank 500), and Great Wall also has its own battery (Dayu Battery), and the stock price has taken the opposite route.

dropped from the peak of 37 Hong Kong dollars last year to the lowest of only 8.9 Hong Kong dollars, a drop of 76%, which is simply shocking. The market is shrouded in the shadow of interest rate hikes, sentiment is average, and funds will not buy everything like they did in 2020. If you have to choose, choose the leader. Then Great Wall, which has a slightly weaker market position and is overvalued, will naturally be abandoned.

In addition to betting on leading car companies, the market has not given up on segments with good competition.

For example, in the diaphragm industry with limited equipment supply and high industry investment costs, the supply and demand relationship will be difficult to reverse within one or two years. Under the stable competitive landscape, although the stock prices of Longyi Longer Enjie Co., Ltd. and Xingyuan Materials also fell, the extent was not too great. After the Shanghai epidemic ended, a wave of rebound recovered a lot of lost ground.

The electrolyte field is different. Compared with other new energy brothers, has a low threshold for electrolyte expansion. The key bottleneck in the industry in the past two years has been the shortage of lithium hexafluorophosphate , which has driven prices higher. As production capacity eased this year, the price of hexafluoride plummeted, and the corresponding stock price did not look good.

The leading stock price of Tianci Materials is only half of its high price, and the rebound after the decline has been weak; the stock price trends of Longer New Zhoubang are exactly the same. The 24-year expected price-earnings ratios of these companies are already very low. Tianci Materials is 17 times, and New Zeobang is less than 10 times, which shows that funds are no longer sought after. Will anyone speculate on the stock price in the future? not optimistic.

Summarize the current logic of the new energy vehicle sector:

First, seize the leading company with the most flawless logic, such as BYD, which operates integrated operations; secondly, choose a company with a stable competitive landscape that cannot be eliminated temporarily, such as a diaphragm; and For areas with strong momentum for production expansion, we must resolutely avoid it, and do not easily copy the bottom of and .

It is true that sometimes, when the people's hearts are scattered, it becomes difficult to lead the team. When someone speculates in stocks, it is Xiao Tiantian. If they no longer speculate, it is Mrs. Niu. It is unrealistic to catch up in areas such as electrolyte and negative electrode.