The Paper Staff Writer Liu Bingchen
On the morning of April 6, local time, Ms. Idit Silman, the whip of the Israeli right-wing Yamina Party (Yamina), announced that she would withdraw from the right-wing Yamina Party and the current ruling coalition, and planned to Join the largest opposition party Likud led by Israel former Prime Minister Netanyahu .
Schillerman announced the reason for her withdrawal. She believed that the current Israeli government had acted in ways that harmed the Jewish character of the State of Israel and the interests of the Israeli people. She did not support such a thing, and also stated that she would try to win over people who hold the same position as hers. other members of parliament withdrew from the ruling coalition.
The sudden news of "Schillerman's withdrawal" caused an instant earthquake in the Israeli political arena.
The current Israeli government is a fragile eight-party ruling coalition, co-led by Future Party (Yesh Atid) leader Yair Lapid and right-wing League Party leader (current Israeli Prime Minister ) Bennett , united eight anti-Netanyahu parties, and struggled to gather more than half of the seats in the Knesset (the total number of seats in the Knesset is 120). This government was approved by a narrow margin of 60 votes in favor, 59 votes against, and 1 abstention in the parliamentary vote last June.
The ruling coalition not only spanned the ideological dispute between left and right , but also included an Arab political party (Ra’am party) for the first time in Israeli history. However, the establishment of the ruling coalition did not eliminate the ideological opposition between the parties and the Ayutthaya conflicts, and because the ruling coalition has just over half of the members and does not have an absolute advantage in the parliament, the current government has been struggling since its establishment. It faces many risks of dissolution. Schillerman's withdrawal directly caused the ruling coalition to lose its majority advantage in the parliament, and the new government, which had been treading on thin ice, finally fell into a crisis of collapse after ten months of persistence.
The current government’s three ways out
After Schillerman announced her withdrawal from the ruling coalition, former Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had been out of office for nearly a year, immediately posted a message on Twitter to pay tribute to Schillerman, praising her decision as the right one. And welcome her return to Likud, the "real" right-wing and nationalist camp. Netanyahu's joy goes without saying that he will undoubtedly be the beneficiary of the political earthquake caused by Schillerman.
Netanyahu immediately posted a tribute to Schillerman on Twitter
After losing the support of the majority in parliament, the current government will face three possible choices:
The first is that the opposition parties jointly launch a dissent against the government. A vote of confidence, impeachment of the Prime Minister. Under Israel's current political system, if the Knesset wants to exercise its power to impeach the prime minister, it must also nominate a new candidate for prime minister. The conditions for passing impeachment not only require that more than half of the members of the parliament vote no confidence in the current government, but also that more than half of the members support the new prime minister candidate to form a cabinet.
Judging from the current structure of the Israeli Knesset, the Likud Group occupies 30 seats. It is not only the largest opposition party, but also the largest party in the Knesset. If the opposition party successfully initiates a no-confidence vote, Netanyahu, the leader of the Likud Party, will undoubtedly be elected as the new prime minister candidate. The camp that supports Netanyahu currently occupies 53 seats in the parliament. If Schillerman can successfully win over six more right-wing MPs to leave the current ruling coalition and support the Likud Group, or the Likud Group can successfully win over the current " If one of the parties in the "eight-party government" defectes, then the motion of no confidence in the government will be successfully passed. At that time, Netanyahu will complete the reversal of power without bloodshed and return to the position of prime minister.
The second possible option is that the current Prime Minister Bennett and the alternative Prime Minister Lapid (Editor's Note: The current ruling coalition agreed that Bennett and Lapid will serve as prime ministers for two years each during the four-year term). The members of the ruling coalition reorganized and attracted other opposition parties or opposition members to join their ruling coalition, filling the vacancies of Schillermann and others, allowing the ruling coalition to regain a majority in the parliament, thus allowing the current government to continue.
The last possible option is to dissolve parliament and hold new elections.There are two ways to dissolve parliament. The first is for the prime minister to dissolve parliament and call a general election. The second is for the opposition parties currently in a dominant position in the parliament to collectively initiate a vote to dissolve the parliament. After the vote is passed, the parliament will dissolve itself and re-elect members.
However, under the current circumstances, the latter two options are by no means easy for Bennett and Lapid. First of all, in the Knesset confidence vote last June, the "eight-party government" narrowly won by a slim margin of 60:59, indicating that the Netanyahu camp and the anti-Netanyahu camp in the Israeli Knesset are evenly matched and opposed. Quite sharp. The opposition parties are mainly divided into three forces: the Likud Group, religious Jewish parties, and Arab parties. Among them, the Likud Group and the religious Jewish parties jointly formed the ruling foundation for Netanyahu's tenure as prime minister for more than ten years, that is, the "right-wing religious political alliance". The relationship between the religious Jewish parties and the Likud Group is "one prosperity, one prosperity. Everyone loses." The remaining opposition party is the "Joint List" party, which is mainly composed of Arab parliamentarians. However, as far as the current situation between Palestine and Israel is concerned, it is almost impossible for the "eight-party government" to cooperate with Arab parties.
Netanyahu The Paper Image File Map
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It is now the Ramadan of Islam , and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has heated up suddenly in the near future. Terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians have occurred in many places in Israel. In addition, fierce conflicts have occurred between Palestine and Israel in Jerusalem, Jenin, Hebron and other places, resulting in many deaths. Afterwards, Israel announced that they had discovered that members of the extremist organization "Islamic State" (IS) were involved in a series of recent terrorist attacks. These events have re-intensified the confrontation between right-wing Jewish parties and Arab parties in the Israeli Knesset. The right-wing Jewish parties have long claimed that Arab parties support "terrorism" (for details, please see "Arab parties participate in the formation of an Israeli government for the first time, but they may severely deal a heavy blow to Arab parties"). Voters” article). Under such a situation, on the one hand, the right-wing Jewish parties demand to strengthen control over the Palestinians, on the other hand, they want to seek freedom and equality for Arab citizens. The right-wing Jewish parties in the "eight-party government" and the Arab parties " The contradictions between the "Ram Party" have also been highlighted.
However, Bennett had previously tried to quell the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as soon as possible in order to stabilize the Ram Party within the ruling coalition. Cooperation with the Lamu Party has also been one of the reasons why the Bennett-Lapid government has been criticized, and Schillerman's withdrawal is also related to this.
As for the third possibility, Bennett and Lapid are definitely not what they want to see go back to the general election. First of all, in the initial "eight-party government", Bennett's right-wing coalition party only accounted for 7 seats in the parliament, and one member finally chose not to support the ruling coalition because of the participation of Arab parties. The right-wing Alliance Party is a group formed by several small right-wing parties, and Bennett does not have an absolute leadership position in the party. Schillerman did not notify Bennett in advance of his exit. It can be seen that Bennett, as Prime Minister, does not have much political power of his own in the Parliament. In fact, he is an embarrassing role similar to a "light commander". His success in being elected as Prime Minister should be attributed more to himself. Excellent "speculation" ability.
Israeli Prime Minister Bennett's image data from The Paper
Under such a situation, if the parliament is dissolved and new elections are held, Bennett will not only have a hard time becoming prime minister in the next parliament, but may even face "the wall is falling and the hozens are scattered". The miserable situation of being reduced to a marginalized figure. As for replacement Prime Minister Lapid, it is the grand blueprint he has drawn for himself to help Bennett successfully survive the first two years of his term as prime minister, and then personally take over as prime minister in the second two years of this government to display his political ambitions. If this government fails in Bennett's first two years, he will lose his chance to become prime minister.
In addition, this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again made many Israelis feel that their life safety is seriously threatened. If they rush to the general election, it is very likely that many centrist voters will fall to the right-wing group that takes a hard line on national security issues. As a centrist Future Party, it will lose the support of many voters. Lapid and his party are likely to lose many seats in the next parliament and their political influence will decline.
Therefore, on the whole, from a rational analysis, Bennett and Lapid should be unwilling to directly dissolve the current government and hold a new election. Moreover, when the conflict between Israel and Israel heats up, no matter which option they choose, it will be detrimental to them, but it will be a good situation for Netanyahu and his Likud party. Netanyahu also appears to be fulfilling his promise when he stepped down that "we will be back soon."
However, for the Israeli people, many people believe that Netanyahu's era has passed, and they do not want to see an old man become their prime minister again. Moreover, Netanyahu’s previous long-term rule has brought corruption, extreme right-wing and other problems to Israel, which many people believe have seriously damaged Israel’s democratic system and political ecology. Will Netanyahu make a comeback, or will Israeli politics fall back into a more complex deadlock? What impact will Israel's political dilemma have on the future direction of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict? All these issues are exciting to watch.
(Liu Bingchen, a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, Hebrew University, Israel)
Editor in charge: Zhu Zhengyong Picture editor: Jiang Lidong
Proofreading: Zhang Yan
