In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing", proposing for the first time to encourage non-residential housing stock to "convert to affordable rental housing."

2024/05/2317:26:34 hotcomm 1492

Researcher at The Paper Research Institute Zhao Min

During the "14th Five-Year Plan", improving the housing market system and housing security system, and accelerating the construction of a high-end marketable and low-end guaranteed housing system were once again put on the agenda. In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing", proposing for the first time to encourage non-residential housing stock to "convert to affordable rental housing."

long-term rental apartments are operated based on the traditional commercial real estate operation model, using self-owned land development or building lease renovation. In contrast, the decentralized rental model mainly relies on the integration of household owners’ housing resources for renovation management. In the context of national policies promoting both renting and selling, renting and purchasing, and equal rights for renting and purchasing, it is an important development point in the housing rental market.

In 2022, the number of college graduates nationwide is expected to be 10.76 million, with both scale and increase hitting record highs. So how will long-term rental apartments serve these "ordinary young people" living in big cities?

The research focus of this report is long-term rental apartments with centralized layout (whole building or whole floor), public space, professional brand operation management, and commercial operation (the following text sometimes emphasizes "centralized long-term rental apartments" for the purpose of distinction) ”) , but does not include decentralized brands represented by Ziroom, low-rent housing and public rental housing built under the leadership of the government, and long-term rental apartments with two bedrooms or more (its leasing method is the same as shared renting or company renting as a whole) The approach is similar for staff dormitories).

After clarifying the definition of "long-term rental apartments", we need to answer an asymmetry that is often ignored in market development reports, but is extremely common in reality - Why do long-term rental apartments have broad prospects, but they are not Not the first choice for tenants? What kind of urban housing dilemma does this gap reflect?

Survey: Young people in big cities generally do not prefer long-term rental apartments

As an emerging and fashionable living form, long-term rental apartments are indeed favored by some young people. Shanshan, who lives in Powerlong Apartment (Muji Design), values ​​​​the updating of the rooms in long-term rental apartments. The brand's interior decoration is simple and beautiful. Moreover, Muji’s units are slightly larger than ordinary long-term rental apartments and are similar in size to a small one-bedroom apartment. Therefore, even if the price of the apartment is similar to or even slightly higher than that of a one-bedroom apartment near her workplace, she prefers to live there. As a comparison, traditional rental methods such as renting in ordinary communities will indeed have uneven decoration. Because of this, long-term rental apartments and decentralized rental platforms have shown the same evolutionary trend: ensures quality control through unified re-decoration. , so that tenants have stable psychological expectations.

However, when the service models of the two are the same, there are still many people who would rather choose a decentralized rental platform. One of the reasons is concerns about the nature of the land (for example, it is more likely to be expropriated) and the quality of commercial buildings, which favor traditional residential buildings. Some people choose to share apartments because there are no long-term rental apartments near their workplace. In addition, there are also cases where people switch to long-term rental apartments because they have lived in ordinary houses for a long time and "they are bored and want a change of taste." All in all, statistics from some organizations from 2017 to 2018 show that personal rent nationwide still accounts for 67% of the entire rental ratio.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

"Centralized brand apartments" refer to the "long-term rental apartments" in this report, and "decentralized brand apartments" refer to the decentralized platform rental form represented by Ziroom. "Individual general renting" refers to direct renting with landlords through traditional intermediaries (such as Lianjia) or private channels.

In the summer of 2021, "Urban China" magazine also used a questionnaire to profile young people living in first-tier cities in China (50% of them are 26-30 years old, 30% are 31-40 years old, and 18-25 years old About 20%) finally reached similar conclusions regarding the characteristics of marriage, income, and renting/buying preferences.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

As shown in the figure above, 3/4 of the young and middle-aged people in megacities are unmarried, more than 1/3 have annual household incomes of 100,000 to 200,000, and 3/4 have an annual salary of less than 300,000. However, the proportion of renting a house only decreases when the annual income reaches 300,000. . The living area is mainly concentrated within 100 square meters (including shared housing), of which 48% is less than 50 square meters.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

It can be clearly seen that commercial housing and husband’s housing account for 3/4 of the rental preferences, which is higher than the survey by the aforementioned organization in 2017-2018.Although various industry reports regard long-term rental apartments as a broad market, and some people have shown a preference for long-term rental apartments. At the same time, fewer and fewer young people are willing to buy houses. In fact, the overall rental preference of young people is still personal. General renting and platform-based scattered renting (although they are often also referred to as long-term rental apartments in self-media).

So, why don’t young people prefer long-term rental apartments?

Reason 1: Young people’s expected lease period does not match the actual one.

According to the traditional housing industry or intermediary’s definition of “long-term rental”, one year or more is considered a long-term rental, and anything below one year is a short-term rental. Based on the trajectory of graduates’ movements, the one-year period is like “riding a donkey to find a horse”. If they are satisfied with their current residence, they will consider extending their stay. Moreover, you may not be able to find your favorite job in the first year, so you may temporarily choose to rent a long-term apartment or short-term rental on a platform (Ziroom can renew the short-term lease, but traditional intermediaries have the psychological expectation that they will have to move after expiration). The payment method makes it easy to move with your job.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

An institutional research report in 2022 pointed out that due to the recurrence of the epidemic, 43.2% of people believe that it will be about 1-3 months before they can rent a house independently, which is an increase from the proportion before the epidemic. It can be said that young people’s uncertainty about entering society has increased.

The third year is the second hurdle. If you can’t find a place to settle down in 3 years, some people will consider returning to their hometown to take the civil service exam; 2-3 years is also a high-risk period for changing jobs for the first time, and your residence is likely to change with the place of work. . Under the current policy restrictions in megacities, people who find a place to settle down within three years will prepare to buy a house. Only people from cities of the same level may choose to rent a house for a long time without changing their household registration.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

Long-term rental apartments change frequently, and the length of stay is significantly shorter than the overall average. The three-year and five-year rental cycles that young people really need cannot be solved by long-term rental apartments. When it comes to another type of centralized rental supplement - government-type public rental housing and low-rent housing, young people also have hidden costs, that is, they need a series of thresholds to prove that they are "houses without property rights or with a living area smaller than 15 square meters of talent" (take Songjiang as an example), and then entered the queue. If you are ranked in public rental housing, the residence period is 5 years ( Yangpu District data, Songjiang District the cumulative period does not exceed 6 years) - then what happens after 5 years?

If you want to live stably for a longer period of time and achieve the theoretical value from a policy perspective, you will ultimately rely on the existing housing stock.

Reason 2: Long-term rental apartments are just a supplement to one-bedroom apartments

From the preference of young people for ordinary residences, long-term rental apartments are not considered to be a competitor to one-bedroom apartments because they can be lived alone. On the contrary, they are It is a supplement to a one-room household. If we take Shanghai as an example, by comparing their distribution and price, we can see a mutually exclusive but complementary relationship.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

In areas where one-bedroom apartments are relatively concentrated, there are also few long-term rental apartments. Residential areas built in the 1980s such as Anshan New Village and Yanji New Village are located along the northern part of the inner ring and in the city center. The density in Lujiazui, Pudong, is also related to the early commercial housing built after 1992 to develop Pudong and transfer the population from to Puxi. In Songjiang- Minhang first line (lower left), Jiading (upper left), Chuansha- Tangzhen ( Pudong part), long-term rental apartments have an absolute advantage. These areas are dominated by large apartments and large residential groups, which are difficult for individual tenants to absorb and usually require shared housing. Shared apartments are likely to face the hidden dangers of being neighbors with strangers, incompatible living habits and even crime. Young people who have just graduated are more sensitive. Therefore, long-term rental apartments are more marketable and widely distributed.

After comparing prices in the same area, researchers from The Paper Research Institute found that although there are a large number of long-term rental apartments, most of them do not have official website quotations and reservation channels. At the same time, about 1/5 of brand apartments are fully rented. This is not friendly to people looking to rent.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

The price distribution of one-bedroom apartments is not evenly distributed. The price range of 4,000-5,000 yuan is mainly located in Beicheng, namely New Jing’an (Old Zhabei), Hongkou and Yangpu districts, and the density is relatively high.Long-term rental apartments in Songjiang and Minhang Pianxinzhuang have greatly supplemented the supply of small apartments, and the Sijing part is also relatively dense. There are also significant additions along Line 5, but the effect is not obvious.

As for the long-term rental apartments of major brands, regardless of area and location, the average price is actually equivalent to that of a one-bedroom apartment.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

The chart does not separate one-bedroom and multi-bedroom apartments, which account for an absolute minority. It does not count the area, nor does it calculate the number of rooms that can be booked.

In short, long-term rental apartments have not been the first choice for young people living in big cities from the beginning. It cannot shake young people's rental preferences for commercial housing and the second best housing for their husbands. Taking Shanghai as an example, long-term rental apartments are difficult to book online, and only a few platforms are friendly to tenants. The opacity of information has resulted in a small actual supply, which makes it difficult to compete with the one-bedroom apartments with sufficient housing supply in terms of quantity, and is not competitive with the "old and small" in the same location in terms of price.

In the area where husband housing is densely populated in the north of the city, there are many one-bedroom households and the supply of housing is relatively abundant. Long-term rentals are only concentrated in a few areas where traditional housing is lacking as a supplement. However, in the southwest suburbs where there are fewer one-bedroom units, has more long-term rental apartments. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Songjiang New City will accelerate the integration of industry and city. The connection with Jiashan and other places in the south will be closer, talents will gather, and the demand for residential functions will become more urgent.

Reason 3: Smaller apartment size, more expensive unit price

Long-term rental apartments hope to seize the shared housing market, or in other words, people who are forced to choose shared housing because the rent of a one-bedroom apartment exceeds their budget. Taking Shanghai as an example, if you refine the area of ​​a one-bedroom apartment in the price distribution chart, you can see that as the price increases, the apartment size also becomes larger in the initial stage, but after the price range of 4000-4999 yuan, the actual Living area began to decrease as location began to play a decisive role. The cost-effectiveness advantage of Chengbei has once again emerged - the average price is 4,000-4,999 yuan, and the area is 20 to 30 square meters.

If you compare the rent of long-term rental apartments that can be booked through the official website with the actual area, and then superimpose it on the base map of one-bedroom apartments (black dots indicate no data), you will find that it is at the same price The area is smaller than that of "Lao Po Xiao", and when the area is equal, it is one level more expensive.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

If we make statistics on the number of houses and area-price, we will find that the section with the largest number of houses is 20-50 square meters (with kitchen and toilet), which deviates upward from the baseline of 100 yuan per square meter, which is about 100 yuan per square meter. The price per meter is less than 200 yuan, and the deviation at both ends is relatively small, and the distribution is relatively concentrated. So most rents are about 4,000-5,000 yuan per household. The main listings of long-term rental apartments are smaller than those of one-bedroom apartments, concentrated in 10-20 square meters, and the rents vary greatly, ranging from 2,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan, and the price difference is almost double.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

In other words, on the surface, long-term rental apartments seem to provide "one-bedroom apartments, shared prices", but if you place the housing area and price distribution on the map, you will see that either compared with one-bedroom apartments The price is the same but the apartment is smaller, or the price is higher and the apartment is smaller, it is not as good a deal as it seems on the surface. In addition, the supply of housing is smaller, and as you can see from the picture above, its area and price are indeed shifted to the lower left corner, but the span of the shift to the left is larger than the span of the shift downward, so the unit The cost of is rising instead of falling.

Reason 4: Use public facilities as premium space

The "2021 Graduate Rental Report in 10 Cities" shows that more than 90% of graduates will choose to rent, of which 35.68% will choose to rent with strangers, 28.11% will choose to live alone, 26.45 % share accommodation with friends/classmates/partners, and the proportion of shared accommodation is nearly 2/3. The rental price in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou is expected to be more than 3,000 yuan, and in Shanghai it is 2,681.8 yuan. If you graduate in Yangpu District, you can rent a second bedroom of more than 10 square meters in Ziru but not south-facing. If you choose in Minhang In Qibao and Xinzhuang areas, there may be master bedrooms of about 16 square meters, and more of them are newer residential buildings after 2000.And if you graduate in Songjiang, you can even find a master bedroom with an independent bathroom. Compared with long-term rental apartments without gas and built on commercial land, there is no essential difference.

By 2022, graduates’ expectations have shrunk slightly from before. Nationwide, nearly 70% of graduates’ monthly rent is less than 2,000 yuan, and nearly 90% of graduates’ monthly rent is less than 3,000 yuan. The price a year ago was " The rental budget in cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions is 2,000-3,000 yuan, while in new first-tier cities such as Tianjin, Wuhan and Chengdu, the rent does not exceed 2,000 yuan."

Under the above circumstances, if long If renting an apartment wants to compete with the shared apartment system, there is actually no advantage in terms of price. The main points that can make a premium are independent bathrooms and regular cleaning. In fact, the majority of housekeeping fees in distributed apartments are also maintenance and cleaning-even public spaces. various cultural and sports facilities.

According to Shuhei Aoyama ’s urban living concept of “Four Hundred Boxes”, a considerable number of young people will choose to “outsource” social functions, kitchen and other functions to the city due to budget reasons. Therefore, public kitchens, public cafes, and even Due to the relatively large amount of use, the public office area does not belong to the "sharing area", but is an extension of the living room.

However, it should be noted that the "extension of the living room" does not mean that today's young people like community activities, nor does it mean that long-term rental apartments can pile up fitness equipment in public spaces in the name of "co-living" Easily premium. Wang Shuo, the founding partner and architect of MMETA-Studio (META-Project), once said that out of consideration for living efficiency, some long-term rental apartments only design a public space in the lobby, and in order to express "co-living", they open up a public space in the lobby. In the corner, a gym is arranged. But fitness is a relatively private activity after all, and it is not a necessity for every household in China. A professional gym still needs a lobby and locker room. Who wants to sweat like rain while strangers come and go?

According to the 2021 survey results of "Urban China", the participation in community activities of renters (including dormitories) is in a polarized state compared with those who buy houses. There are more high-frequency and no participation at all, and if it is not the work unit school dormitory, In communities of acquaintances and strangers, rental groups are less interested in community activities; the larger and smaller the living area, the more interested they are in community activities, but it is difficult to find a pattern in the frequency of participation.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

Public life is not an inevitable factor for young people to consider increasing their rental budget, indoor environment is.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

Factors that graduates consider worthy of the increased budget can be seen as most of the high-scoring options focus on indoor facilities. Data source: Ziru Research Institute

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

Since the indoor aspect is worth increasing the budget, the quotations for individual rental and long-term rental apartments are finally unified: the base price of is just above the psychological expectations of graduates, while the management fee is considered as "a factor that can increase the rental budget." factor".

Reason 5: Base price + management fee, service quality has not improved significantly

The popular base price + management fee model has two main selling points: no intermediary fees and monthly payment, no need to share rent, for people who are short of money but hope to have a certain place to live. Quality, insecurity towards strangers with different living habits (or even potential criminal tendencies).

However, "free agency fees" does not mean that the cost of long-term rentals is reduced. If credit costs are taken into consideration, we can see the changes in credit costs from the traditional intermediary rental model to the platform model, as well as the transfer of the hidden danger of "landlord eviction". In an era when the Internet platform was not yet developed, the traditional rental model was "deposit one, pay three" + one month's agency fee. You need to prepare five months' rent at a time, and it is not clear what the landlord's attitude will be after one year - Should we increase the rent or evict people directly? If you evict people directly, you will need to prepare 5 months of rent again to cope with the next cycle. This annoying model has been criticized for a long time, which led to the emergence of the current model. There is no need to pay agency fees and monthly payments are available, which solves the problem of financial constraints for many graduates.

In the past, "one deposit, three payments" was a credit agreement signed between the landlord and the tenant to prevent the tenant from defaulting on payment.This model of ensuring credit among strangers through a large one-time payment is also the norm in countries with mature housing rental systems like Japan, and the conditions are even more stringent. The current model is equivalent to assuming part of the credit itself, changing from direct payment to indirect payment. To obtain a house from a landlord, the platform needs to sign a contract of 5 years or more ("commercial to lease" is generally 10-15 years). This can gain the trust of the tenant and ensure that if you really intend to stay for a long time, you will not be as rejected as before. Landlords drive them away and even occupy them for the five years during which the platform signs a contract with the landlord; and for the landlord, out of trust in the intermediary chain brand, knowing that even if the tenants change in the past five years, the rent can still be paid regularly, and the rent is reduced. This eliminates worries (although there may also be situations where owners are asked to reduce prices).

So where does the agency fee go?

Based on the full rent for one year, one month’s agency fee is equivalent to 1/12 of the single month’s rent. Under the new model, the housekeeping service fee is 10% of the rent, and in one year it is 120% of one month's rent (it also includes maintenance costs, but the normal aging rate of electrical appliances is roughly 3 years at the shortest). And it has to be paid every year, with compound interest forming as the annual rent increases (although you can apply for a price adjustment, the initiative lies with the platform).

If it is a traditional direct rental model, the landlord is responsible for the replacement and maintenance costs, but there may also be situations where everything needs to be done by yourself, so the tenant is less sensitive to the maintenance price, even if the lowest price + management fee model is adopted. Management fees are also considered comparable to hiring your own cleaning staff and maintenance services. Under the new model, maintenance is all paid for from management fees, which is equivalent to returning to the tenants, and tenants have higher expectations for management quality. "Enthusiasm when signing a contract, pretending to be dead when canceling the contract" and too frequent replacement rate are the most concentrated complaints. However, if the service quality is to reach the same standard as that of a hotel, management costs will rise significantly, thus compressing profit margins. This is also an important reason for the high prices of some serviced apartments . For non-hotel group rental systems whose original profits are only about 5% (2018-2020; the average data from Lianjia Research Institute in 2017-2018 is 8%-10%), it is indeed unaffordable.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

Lianjia Research Institute’s 2017-2018 Centralized Apartment Report has compared the costs of decentralized apartments (left) and centralized long-term rental apartments (right). It can be seen that the operating costs and profits of the two are equal together. , the sum of rent and renovation costs are also equal respectively.

As the former operator of Yanjingli Youth Community (now Yanjingli Ziroom Apartment), architect Wang Shuo once compared the changes in the feelings of tenants who had lived there since the early days after the operation of Ziroom - the improvement of housekeeping service capabilities. linear decrease. In the past "co-living" era, housekeepers lived in empty houses, and the distinction between them and tenants was relatively blurred. They were a kind of "companion" existence, who could judge others by themselves and distinguish themselves from tenants. Stack up experience to solve housing problems. However, what Ziroom provides is the most basic housekeeping service. The relationship between housekeepers and tenants has become that they each deal with the operator and have no intersection with each other. Although it has been complained by old tenants, this model of has lower operating costs and is easier to explain to investors.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

Public areas during the period of cohabitation in Yanjingli. Image source: META-Studio (️Photographer Chen Su)

Reason six: Questioned hardware facilities and price adjustments

The biggest factors affecting young people’s choice of long-term rental apartments are, in addition to the difficulty in housekeeping services meeting psychological expectations, there are also The following items:

The most criticized issue is commercial utility bills. Since the vast majority of long-term rental apartments are commercial and hotel land (both are Category B in the construction land classification system, formerly known as Category C), the water and electricity bills are about twice as high as those for residential buildings, and it is likely that because of the commercial land use There is no gas and only induction cooker is available. Generally speaking, the monthly utility bills for long-term rental apartments in first-tier and new first-tier cities start at 200 yuan, with an average price of 400 to 500 yuan. The electricity consumption for heating, cooling and refrigerators in winter and summer may reach 800 yuan. Some people have even calculated that if you include commercial utility bills and a 10% service charge, a long-term rental apartment is likely to be 50% more expensive than a shared apartment. Then many people will vote with their feet and would rather choose shared housing.

The second factor is lighting , which is mainly determined by the differences between office buildings, hotel buildings, residential buildings, and dormitory buildings in the building code . Bedrooms and living rooms in residences and dormitories need direct lighting, but the requirements for hotels are even lower. In the unified standards for civil building design, as long as the lighting coefficient and intensity meet the standards, it is enough. Lighting does need to be considered when converting commercial buildings into apartments – if that counts as allowing some tenants to enjoy “wall-view rooms” by adding light troughs to the existing building. If a resident is assigned to a house type with poor lighting, and there are remaining rooms with better sunlight in the whole building, they can also change rooms internally by paying the price difference or exchanging room fees. But this time it depends on the quality of the butler.

In July 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the

From the survey of "Urban China", we can see that whether renting or buying a house, young people value lighting the most.

The third factor is sound insulation. Due to cost considerations, long-term rental apartments generally have poor sound insulation. Civil buildings have the " Civil Building Sound Insulation Design Code " as the bottom line. The noise limit in bedrooms and study rooms is a maximum of 40 decibels during the day and a maximum of 30 decibels at night. But there are no commercial buildings. If they are built according to residential standards, for some developers and platforms, it is equivalent to increasing the cost of renovation, and the "turnover rate" is an important way to promote short-term profits (discussed later) , so there is less interest in installing sound insulation panels .

The fourth factor is that the price fluctuates greatly, exceeding expectations. Ziroom can rely on its powerful Internet big data attributes to quickly spread housing information. Just one project in Yanjingli can reach an astonishing figure of 70 people viewing houses every day, keeping the vacancy rate extremely low. But for long-term rental apartment operators whose data channels are not so developed, prices are determined based on inventory. Since the model of centralized apartments is very different from that of scattered apartments, each price adjustment is more transparent. Once a tenant chooses to stay for a long time (such as one year), the decision-making time is long and difficult, and it is difficult to accept the rent of the same apartment type after moving in. Price reduction.

On the one hand, the operators emphasized the importance of service and community in interviews; on the other hand, a large number of online tenants complained, watched and voted with their feet. Such a split in opinions can’t help but cast doubt on “industry optimism” and various industry development reports. Moreover, the current attributes of long-term rental apartments are relatively vague, management rights are not clear, and the quality of operators is also uneven. When the epidemic is closed, a large number of service collapses are likely to occur. This once again affects the tenant group’s choice of long-term rental apartments, adding to the perception that “long-term rental apartments are only suitable for short-term rentals.”

Further reasons: The supply of land has increased, but the rent has not dropped.

The market for long-term rental apartments is not determined by the demand of real customers. This sounds like a behavior that goes against the market economy . But behind it, the first thing that needs to be solved is the cost of acquiring land.

Before the rapid transformation of real estate due to the "three red lines", the cost of properties with property ownership certificates, whether sold or leased, had been rising significantly. During the 2017-2018 survey conducted by Lianjia Research Institute, the average annual growth rate in hot cities was generally more than 30%. When the market rental growth rate was not large, the already low rental return rate of and continued to decline. Therefore, some real estate companies that previously chose multi-line operations will adopt a method of adjusting light and heavy asset allocation in the 2020s. Take Vanke as an example. It has transformed some of the commercial and residential buildings that have acquired land into apartments, which are rented out in the form of centralized long-term rental apartments. If it is a Chengjia subsidiary of Huazhu, it is more likely to obtain land from a group affiliate. The renovation of poorly operating hotel buildings is a mixed holding model of light and heavy assets. In this way, there will be no risk of the land owner breaking the contract, and it will be a two-pronged preparation process. In the long-term rental market before 2020, asset-light companies that "have an asset-heavy company to embrace" tend to have more competitive advantages.

After 2020, there have been certain changes in the land market.Affected by the downturn in the real economy, more factories and commercial offices have become idle, and these idle assets have entered the rental market; the decline in real estate has made people lose confidence in the increase in urban land prices, and the downturn in the investment market has also made some property owners Producers are trying to put their factories and commercial offices into the rental market to earn small but stable profits; some investors originally looked down on the 5% profit in the long-term rental market, but now they believe that "no matter how small a fly is, they are still meat" and have begun to There is interest in this market. There is more money in the market now than before, and there is more land supply. Policies (taking Beijing as an example) have also been slightly relaxed from the original prohibition to now.

However, due to the large supply of land and buildings, rent expectations may decrease, which will not necessarily lead to a decrease in long-term rental prices. More attention will be paid to the real needs of young people. According to Zhihu, the current average investment price for a single room in a long-term rental apartment is 60,000-70,000 yuan, and the average investment price for a single room in a mid-range hotel ( Atour , All Seasons) is 100,000-120,000 yuan. However, Bokensha’s salon on Station B pointed out that the renovation cycle of long-term rental apartments, whether scattered or centralized, is about 6 years. If you want to attract young people, you must always keep up with their aesthetic preferences and market trends. The decoration is stylish. Therefore, although the average investment price of a single room in a long-term rental apartment is less, the more frequent cycles have not reduced the decoration cost . Moreover, the shortest return period for long-term rental apartments will not be less than 4 years. Some practitioners will learn how to operate from hotels, so that the average investment return period can be closer to the latter's 3.5-4 years.

However, the "long-term rental" in the hotel industry is based on one month as the dividing point, which is completely different from the long-term rental in the housing industry, which is one year as the dividing line. If mid- to low-end brands adopt a hotel operation model and encourage short-term rentals, then decoration costs can also be reduced, and there is no need to consider the feelings of long-term residents.

Conclusion: If you are poor and young, will you be abandoned by the market?

The Paper once published an article analyzing that as localities continue to increase affordable housing resources in the form of public rental housing and talent apartments , the future long-term rental apartment market It may continue to differentiate, with high-end serviced apartments and affordable rental housing becoming the two main products, while white-collar apartments tend to decline.

But it also raises some hidden worries - it requires cooperation with the policy to be implemented, but what if the policy does not "cover the bottom line"?

If commercial long-term rental apartments realize the difficulty of low-end competition and generally choose to go high-end, the current construction of affordable housing and talent apartments is biased towards attracting "high-end talents" to increase the competitiveness of the region, which will affect the "ordinary youth" The threshold for openness is high, so those young people who do not graduate from prestigious schools, do not work in "sunrise industries", and do not have rental subsidies from their units, do they have to live in shared apartments, or choose mid- to low-end long-term rental apartments that are more scarce than before? Will various commercial long-term rental apartments still keep those "ordinary young people" trapped in the trap where rent accounts for nearly half of their wages, and even move frequently?

When discussing long-term rentals, we must not ignore those "ordinary young people" who are regarded as the denominator. They are the targets of key exploitation in big cities where the third industry is the main body, and they are the people who should be protected the most in the entire policy. Not opening up new markets for those who have more choices.

Editor in charge: Wu Yingyan Picture editor: Zhang Tongze

Proofreading: Ding Xiao

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