has risen more than ten times in a row, domestic refined oil prices will fall!
Recently, international crude oil futures prices have fluctuated downwards, and the trend of domestic refined oil prices deserves attention.
Countdown to oil price reduction?
Based on the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, this round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on Tuesday (June 28).
According to calculations by commodity information agency Jin Lianchuang, as of the eighth working day on June 24, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US$113.45, with a change rate of -5.21%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 280 yuan/ton. .
This may mean that domestic refined oil prices are about to experience their “second drop” this year. Wang Shan, an analyst at
Jin Lianchuang, said that it is expected that the price of refined oil products will drop by more than 300 yuan/ton in this round, and the cost of oil consumption for car owners will also be reduced.
Based on the above-mentioned data conversion calculations, it is expected that domestic gasoline prices will decrease by 0.22 yuan per liter and diesel prices will decrease by 0.25 yuan per liter. Calculated based on this adjustment range, car owners will be able to save about 11 yuan by filling up a 50-liter fuel tank; in terms of fuel consumption, taking a private car that runs 2,000 kilometers per month and consumes 8 liters per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel consumption cost will be reduced by 35 yuan. Yuan or so.
Since the beginning of this year, as international oil prices have continued to rise, domestic refined oil prices have risen more or less. Up to now, there have been a total of eleven price adjustments during the year, showing a trend of “ten increases, one decrease and zero stranded”. After all increases and decreases were offset, the retail retail prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 2,720 yuan/ton and 2,620 yuan/ton respectively during the year; equivalent to price increases, No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 diesel increased cumulatively by 2.14 yuan/liter and 2.23 yuan/liter respectively.
International oil prices plunge to high levels, why?
The rising trend of international oil prices that began in mid-May came to an end this week. The prices of
WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil have been fluctuating and falling, both reaching around US$110/barrel. As of the close of trading on June 18, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for July delivery fell by 6.83% to close at US$109.56/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell by 5.58% to close at US$113.12/barrel.
Jin Lianchuang crude oil analyst Han Zhengji analyzed that high inflation in the United States has caused investors to worry about the prospect of oil demand. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have caused the U.S. dollar to rise sharply. Oil priced in U.S. dollars has become more expensive, suppressing demand expectations. The market is optimistic about oil. Uncertainty about the demand outlook is the main reason for the fall in oil prices from high levels.
Jin Lianchuang predicts that crude oil prices will fluctuate around US$110/barrel next week.
It is worth noting that the U.S. government is seeking various methods to cool oil prices, and the International Energy Agency also warned that high oil prices will affect demand prospects.
As of the close on the morning of June 25, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for August delivery rose 3.21% to close at $107.62 per barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 2.79% to close at $113.12. /bucket.
Diesel wholesale prices have been in a downward channel
In terms of market sales, before this round of refined oil price adjustments, the recent wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel were basically in a downward channel.
Jin Lianchuang data shows that as of June 23, the national average price of No. 92 gasoline was 9,719 yuan per ton, down 196 yuan per ton from June 16; the average price of No. 95 gasoline was 9,987 yuan per ton, down from June 16 On the 16th, the price dropped by 201 yuan per ton; the average price of No. 0 diesel was 8,832 yuan per ton, down 197 yuan per ton from June 16.
Image source: Jin Lianchuang
Wang Shan said that the recent fire in Shanghai Petrochemical equipment has caused a slight drop in the operating rate of the main refineries. However, many private refineries have resumed work one after another, causing the operating rate of local refineries to increase significantly, and gasoline and diesel resources are in supply. Trend: Frequent heavy rainfall in the south has hindered the construction of logistics and outdoor infrastructure projects, causing diesel demand to continue to weaken.
In terms of gasoline, vehicle air conditioners increase vehicle fuel consumption, but high oil prices also restrict downstream consumption, and the increase in gasoline demand is limited.
Where will oil prices go next?
Regarding the next trend of oil prices, Wang Shan analyzed that international oil prices may maintain a wide range of fluctuations due to the combination of short and good factors such as the Federal Reserve and Central Bank concentrated interest rate hikes and the crude oil supply gap.
Some refineries still plan to resume operations in the short term, local refinery operating rates are still expected to increase, and resource supply may increase.
Affected by seasonal factors, diesel may continue to be weak. For gasoline, as the summer vacation approaches, terminal consumption is still supported. "With the implementation of this round of retail price adjustments, the direction of the new round of retail price adjustments is still unclear, and it may be difficult to find strong support from the news. In the short term, there is still some downward pressure on domestic oil prices. However, supported by higher refining costs, The decline in domestic oil prices may be relatively limited, and it has entered a new sales cycle. If crude oil rebounds later, there will be many operations to follow the rise in gasoline and diesel prices." Wang Shan said.
According to Times Weekly, Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, pointed out: "At present, the short-term pressure and economic worries caused by interest rate hikes continue, and it is expected that international oil prices will still have room to fall next week. Domestic refined oil prices may also fall as a result, but this does not mean that demand will decrease. Oil prices will still have an upward trend in the future, and the possibility of a decline is small."
Zhou Maohua, Macro Research Institute of Everbright Bank's Financial Market Department, also said. , It is unrealistic for crude oil prices to return to pre-epidemic levels in the short term. Maintaining high prices will inevitably have a certain impact on the Chinese economy.
Zhou Maohua believes that China is highly dependent on energy imports. Higher crude oil prices will directly push up my country’s transportation costs and production costs in some mid- and downstream manufacturing industries, and may push some companies to pass on part of the cost pressure to end consumers; but for the upstream It is beneficial for energy production companies such as crude oil. "In addition, crude oil prices and other traditional energy prices remain high, which will help reduce the opportunity cost of new energy production and promote my country's energy transformation and development."
Source: Changjiang Daily Comprehensive
News Clues Breaking Channel: Application Market Download " Morning Video "Client, enter the "Morning Help" topic; or call the Morning Video News Hotline 0731-85571188.
