The situation may escalate in an all-round way: Ukraine shelled the Russian mainland, killing many civilians. Senior Russian officials called this an "act of aggression"
According to CCTV news reports, on July 3, local time, the Russian Federation Council (House of Lords) Chairman of the Constitutional Committee Krishas claimed that the Ukrainian army used M142 "Haimas" long-range rocket launchers to launch artillery attacks on Russian territory Belgorod Oblast in the early morning of that day. Subsequently, Belgorod Governor Gladkov confirmed the news on social media and stated that the Ukrainian army’s cross-border shelling caused damage to 11 residential buildings and more than 39 private residences, and at least five Russian Civilians died as a result of the shelling. Krishas said that the Ukrainian army's shelling of the Russian mainland was a "direct act of aggression" and he demanded that the Russian government immediately make the "sternest response." The Ukrainian government and army have not yet responded to the shelling.
Krishas, Chairman of the Constitutional Committee of the Russian Federation Council Source: Russian media
Although the Ukrainian army has carried out some attacks on the Russian mainland before, most of these attacks were military targets, but this time the shelling opened fire directly on Russian civilians. This will obviously escalate the situation overall. At present, the outside world believes that Ukraine's main purpose in planning this shelling incident is to save face. On July 3, Russia announced its capture of Lisichansk. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to President Vladimir Putin that the Russian army officially "liberated" the entire Luhansk Oblast. In order to prevent domestic morale from collapsing, the Ukrainian army conveniently planned this cross-border shelling and produced some "victory results" to save face. However, this time the Ukrainian army targeted Russian civilians for shelling. Not only is it difficult to save face, but it will further anger Russia and prompt Russia to adopt more radical military policies.
Krishas, as a member of the Federation Council and Chairman of the Constitutional Committee, defined the Ukrainian army’s shelling of Russian civilian residential areas as an “act of aggression.” There is a huge amount of information behind this statement, and it is likely that he is mobilizing more troops for the Russian army. prepare for. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the number of Russian troops fighting in Ukraine has never exceeded 200,000. Although the Russian army has equipment advantages and higher quality troops, it is still difficult to face hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops. Insufficient troops are one of the main reasons why the Russian army's progress is slower than expected.
Although the Russian army has millions of troops, Russian soldiers are divided into professional soldiers who sign employment contracts with the military, voluntarily join the army, and enjoy higher salaries contract soldiers , and those who are obliged to join the army and serve in accordance with Russian law. of conscripts. According to Russian law, only contract soldiers can be sent to fight outside Russian territory, and conscripts can only go into combat if Russia is invaded. Although Russia has been trying to increase the proportion of contract soldiers in the army over the years, it has always been difficult to fully implement this reform due to financial constraints. This is one of the reasons why the Russian army has not sent more troops to Ukraine despite facing a shortage of troops.
However, once the Russian government considers Ukraine's shelling of civilian residential areas in Belgorod to be an "act of aggression," then a large number of conscripts can be legitimately mobilized to fight in Ukraine. Although the equipment and quality of Russia's conscript troops are inferior to those of contract troops, they are more than enough to fight against these Ukrainian troops, which are seriously attrited and lack heavy weapons. All in all, once the Russian government considers Ukraine's actions to be an "aggression" against Russia, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will escalate into a Russian-Ukrainian war. Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops will be put into the Ukrainian battlefield. At that time, the speed of the Russian army's progress will be Significantly faster.
At the same time, this shelling incident will also severely damage the already fragile US-Russia relations. The United States once refused to provide Ukraine with "Haimas" rocket launchers due to concerns that it would attack Russia's homeland.Even if it finally provided four "Haimas" rocket launchers under Ukraine's coercion, the United States also required Ukraine to guarantee that it would not use these weapons to attack Russia's mainland, and Ukraine also made this commitment. However, after the defense line collapsed, the Ukrainian military still violated its commitment to the United States and used "Haimas" rocket launchers to attack Russian civilian areas. This behavior will naturally further worsen U.S.-Russian relations. At the same time, the bombardment may increase the rift between the United States and Ukraine.
In recent times, the West has begun to get tired of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and many Western countries have reduced their aid to Ukraine. Moreover, the advanced "Caesar" vehicle-mounted howitzer that France assisted Ukraine was captured intact by the Russian army, which made France very dissatisfied. As Lischichansk was captured by the Russian army, the West's confidence in Ukraine further declined. At this time, Ukraine violated its original commitment to the United States and launched shelling on residential areas in Russia. This will naturally undermine the relationship between Ukraine and the United States. relationship, the United States may be more cautious when providing weapons assistance to Ukraine in the future.
In short, Ukraine’s shelling of Russian civilian areas is not only completely wrong morally, but also extremely detrimental to Ukraine in terms of practical interests. Not only did it fail to save its own face, it also angered Russia and violated its obligations to the United States. The promise is really harmful and useless.
went back on its word, the UK planned to tear up the "Northern Ireland Protocol", the foreign ministers of Germany and Ireland unanimously condemned
According to the " Global Times " report, on July 3rd local time, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berberck and Ireland Foreign Minister Simon Keveney jointly published an article in the British media " Observer ", criticizing the British government for going back on its word and premeditating to tear up the "Northern Ireland Protocol". This article bluntly pointed out that the British government's unilateral modification of the Northern Ireland Protocol does not have any legal or political rationality. Not only does this unilateral behavior fail to resolve the differences between the EU and the United Kingdom, On the contrary, it will make the problem more complicated and bring more uncertainty. The German Foreign Minister and the Irish Foreign Minister jointly criticized the UK in the article for "not accepting the EU's suggestions in good faith, but instead embarking on the path of unilateralism."
German Foreign Minister Annalena Berberck
The issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol has been going on for several years. The Northern Ireland region originally belonged to Ireland, but later the entire Ireland was occupied by the United Kingdom. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Irish started a series of independence struggles, and finally reached a compromise with the United Kingdom. Except for the six northern counties, which still belonged to the United Kingdom, the rest of the areas became British Dominions, and were established after World War II. Republic of Ireland. The six northern counties that still belong to the United Kingdom have become today's Northern Ireland. Although Northern Ireland and Ireland belong to two separate countries, the exchanges between the two sides are very frequent and close. Originally, the UK and Ireland were both EU countries, and communication between Northern Ireland and Ireland was very smooth. However, as the UK leaves the EU, communication between Northern Ireland and Ireland will inevitably be affected. This has aroused strong public sentiment in Northern Ireland. The opposition also aroused strong dissatisfaction among the Irish people.
In order to calm opposition and reduce political resistance as much as possible, the United Kingdom also signed the "Northern Ireland Protocol" when signing the Withdrawal Agreement in 2019. This document stipulates the relationship between Northern Ireland and other EU member states, including Ireland, after Brexit. The flow of people and goods remains smooth. There are no checkpoints at the border in Northern Ireland. It will continue to abide by all EU economic and trade agreements and will not impose additional tariffs on EU goods. However, there is a huge loophole in this protocol, that is, in order to prevent British goods from entering the EU market illegally, goods from other parts of the UK need to undergo border inspections when entering Northern Ireland; while goods from Northern Ireland can enter other parts of the UK unimpeded.This means that EU goods can still enter the British market normally, but British goods cannot enter the EU market under the same conditions. It is impossible for the British government to not notice such a huge loophole, but perhaps in order to leave the EU as soon as possible, the British government still signed the "Northern Ireland Protocol" with huge loopholes.
As expected, the UK immediately expressed regret over the signing of the Northern Ireland Protocol after its smooth departure from the EU. The British government has repeatedly proposed that it wish to modify or even abolish this document, but has been strongly opposed by the EU. In early June, the British government ignored repeated warnings from the EU and formally submitted an application to the Parliament to amend the Northern Ireland Protocol. On June 27, the Parliament passed a resolution supporting the amendment of the Northern Ireland Protocol and will implement the amendment on July 13. A meeting was held again on the same day to discuss how to amend the protocol. This series of actions naturally angered the EU, and the foreign ministers of Germany and Ireland jointly published an article in the British media criticizing the British government for going back on its word. At present, the EU has threatened the UK many times to impose economic sanctions on it. The foreign ministers of Germany and Ireland are more like issuing an ultimatum to the UK. If the UK still insists on going its own way, a European trade war is likely to take place. .
The relevant actions of the British government can be said to be quite disrespectful. Although there are indeed loopholes in the specific content of the Northern Ireland Protocol, since the British government has signed it, it should implement it to the letter and never unilaterally modify the relevant provisions. reason. The current unilateral actions of the British government are not only unlikely to strengthen its control over Northern Ireland, but will instead assist the Northern Ireland independence movement. If the British government can conscientiously implement the relevant provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the lives of the vast majority of people in Northern Ireland will not be affected, and naturally they will not be too positive about independence and return to Ireland. However, the British government has made it clear that it intends to undermine the Northern Ireland Protocol, which makes the local people feel that their daily lives are threatened. Instead, they will be more inclined to become independent from the United Kingdom as soon as possible and return to the embrace of Ireland. This also shows that although the United Kingdom often accuses other countries of "not keeping their promises" when criticizing other countries, it has openly torn up an agreement that the ink is still wet on. This shows that the United Kingdom does not care about its national credibility at all.
Now, Germany, as one of the leaders of the European Union, and Ireland, a party to the Northern Ireland Protocol, jointly criticize the United Kingdom for tearing up the Northern Ireland Protocol. This has not only dealt a heavy blow to the international image of the United Kingdom, but also set the stage for the possible future The UK-EU trade war has heightened the atmosphere. How the situation develops in the future depends on what decision the British Parliament will make at its meeting on July 13th.
