stock market non-ferrous metal sector Behind the continued high temperature, futures and spot prices of many varieties hit new highs.
On February 19, local time, LME three-month copper hit a new high since September 2011; LME three-month nickel hit its highest level since September 2014; LME three-month tin hit its highest level since August 2011 . At the same time, the corresponding spot varieties also hit new highs.
html On the A-share market on February 19, the nonferrous metal sector index hit a new high since September 2017, with many stocks hitting their daily limits. Some institutions believe that in the context of the clean energy revolution, new copper demand space will be opened up, the gap between global refined copper supply and demand will gradually expand, and the copper price center is expected to rise further. With the promotion of high-nickel ternary batteries, there will be room for incremental demand for nickel.issues, current stocks, and stocks "three cities are burning together"
Wenhua Finance data shows that on February 19, local time, LME three-month copper closed up 3.89% to US$8,941 per ton, with an intraday high of US$8,995. It was the highest level since September 2011, and the contract achieved three consecutive weekly gains.
Source: Wenhua Finance
On that day, LME three-month nickel reached a maximum of $19,810, the highest level since September 2014; LME three-month tin hit the highest level since August 2011, $26,365.
Source: Wenhua Finance
html On February 19, during the night trading session of the domestic futures market, non-ferrous metal futures continued to be strong in the day's trading. Among them, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures reached a high of 66,470 yuan/ton, also a new high in more than nine years; the main contract of Shanghai nickel futures hit 146,980 yuan/ton, a new high since September 2019; the main contract of Shanghai tin futures hit a record high in 2015 The contract hit a new high of 193,830 yuan/ton since its listing in May.The A-share non-ferrous sector has also experienced an explosive market trend recently. Wind data shows that on February 19, the non-ferrous metal index reached a high of 4879.70 points, a new high since September 2017. In terms of constituent stocks, Ningbo Fubon, Yuancheng Gold, Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry , Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Zhuzhou Smelting Group all rose by the limit.
source: Wind
spot side also reached a new high. Data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network shows that on February 19, the average price of electrolytic copper was 63,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 555 yuan/ton from the previous day, a new high since September 2011; the average price of electrolytic nickel was reported at 142,800 yuan/ton. , an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton from the previous day, a new high since September 2019; the average price of tin was reported at 178,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,250 yuan/ton from the previous day, a new high since February 2012.
Source: Shanghai Nonferrous Network
Listed companies in related industries benefited
Benefiting from the price increase of nonferrous metals, listed companies in related industries benefited in 2020.
Among the listed companies in the copper industry, *ST Xinke is expected to turn losses into profits in 2020, achieving a net profit of 55 million yuan to 66 million yuan attributable to shareholders of the listed company. The company stated that in 2020, the company achieved stable growth in profitability of its main business by eliminating backward production capacity in the copper processing sector and promoting product structure adjustment.
Zijin Mining expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 6.45 billion yuan to 6.65 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 50.56% to 55.23%. The company stated that the expected increase in performance is mainly due to the increase in the output of major mineral products in 2020 compared with 2019. Among them, copper output increased by 23.29% year-on-year.
Among the listed companies in the nickel industry, Corun estimates that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2020 will be 45 million yuan to 60 million yuan. The company said that during the reporting period, the company achieved cost reduction, revenue increase and efficiency improvement, and the continued growth of its main business scale led to a significant improvement in the company's profit level. Among them, benefiting from the continued growth of Toyota HEV market demand, the company's HEV upstream industry chain foam nickel , battery plate and other product sales continued to grow with the gradual release of production capacity. The profits of Changde Liyuan, Hunan Keba, Kelimei and other companies Contributions have also been significantly improved.
New demand will open up incremental space
The International Monetary Fund's latest "World Economic Outlook" predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. A significant recovery in the global economy will boost copper demand.
Haitong Securities believes that carbon neutrality requires the power industry to gradually transform into clean energy, which is expected to stimulate power grid investment. However, my country’s copper demand for power accounts for as high as 48.5%. “Carbon neutrality” will bring new demand for refined copper, with It is conducive to the central recovery of copper prices.
Qi Ding, chief analyst of nonferrous metals at Essence Securities, predicts that from 2021 to 2023, new copper demand in the clean energy sector will account for 6.65%, 7.15%, and 7.80% of total global copper consumption that year. "The gap between global refined copper supply and demand will gradually expand, and the copper price center is expected to rise further." In terms of electrolytic nickel varieties, Minmetals Economic Futures believes that since the fourth quarter of 2020, the overall demand for domestic refined nickel has shown the characteristics of not being weak in the off-season, and the new The demand for nickel in energy and alloys is particularly significant, which is also an important factor in the recent continued strength of nickel prices.
Industry insiders said that with the gradual reduction of new energy subsidies, cost issues will become the first focus of electric vehicle manufacturers. Therefore, the penetration rate of high-nickel ternary batteries with lower unit power costs is expected to increase rapidly, and battery demand is expected to become the future Areas with the greatest demand for nickel.
Regarding the medium and long-term trend of tin prices, Tin Industry Shares stated in the research minutes disclosed on January 27 that global economic recovery is the general trend, commodity prices have increased across the board, the supply and demand relationship of most bulk commodities has continued to improve, and prices have repeatedly reached new highs. , tin’s later price support is strong. The minutes also show that the company's tin ore metal production volume in 2019 was 44,986 tons, and after beneficiation, it achieved a self-produced tin metal volume of about 30,000 tons.
Editor: Ye Song
