Since Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine at the end of February this year, sanctions and counter-sanctions between the West and Russia have continued to increase, and their direct and long-term political and economic impacts have slowly emerged. In the

The Paper Reporter Liu Hui

Since Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine at the end of February this year, sanctions and counter-sanctions between the West and Russia have continued to increase, and its direct and long-term political and economic impacts have slowly emerged. In the five Central Asian countries that once belonged to the former Soviet Union, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has caused them uneasiness, and the attitudes of these countries have become increasingly subtle.

In Kazakhstan, which has just experienced the "January Coup", everyone from President Tokayev to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense has maintained a certain distance from Moscow in public statements. Kazakh officials promised not to become a tool to help Russia circumvent Western sanctions, and received a special visit from the US Deputy Secretary of State. The two countries also announced their intention to expand a high-level strategic partnership.

Uzbekistan is the only Central Asian country to call on Russia to stop its "aggressive" behavior. Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov made it very clear on March 17 at the plenary session of the National Senate (Olij Mažlis): "The situation surrounding Ukraine is deeply worrying for Uzbekistan", "We Supports the pursuit of a peaceful solution to this situation and the resolution of this conflict through political and diplomatic means.” To do this, "(Russia) must first end its military activities and aggression."

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are more dependent on Russia. Both countries have Russian military bases in their countries. After the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan maintained a "cautious silence" and were directly affected by the economic sanctions against Russia. According to the Moscow Times, Tajikistan welcomed at least more than 60,000 migrant workers who returned from Russia from January to mid-to-late April. Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Economy Amanglidiev held negotiations with South Korea and Turkey in March, requesting the latter to relax visa restrictions on Kyrgyzstan labor immigrants.

Isolationist Turkmenistan has not been in a hurry to express its position. The country's new president Serdar Berdymukhamedov has just taken over power from his father Gurbanguly and is busy Adapt to new roles. From beginning to end, the Earth Kingdom hardly really cared about what was happening in the outside world.

Kazakhstan and Ukraine are getting closer to the United States.

May 9 this year is the Victory Day in the Patriotic War. To commemorate the 77th anniversary of the victory over fascist Germany, Russia has started rehearsals for the Victory Day parade in Red Square in late April. But in Kazakhstan, officials referring to the holiday made it clear that it would not be celebrated with any fanfare.

According to Kazakh News Agency, Kazakhstan’s Defense Minister Ruslan Zaksilkov told the media after the meeting of Majlis (lower house of parliament) on April 20 that the cost of a military parade is approximately 4 billion Go (approximately RMB 58.41 million), Kazakhstan’s national leadership believes that holding exercises to strengthen the combat effectiveness of the troops is more important. Zhaksilikov also emphasized that the Day of the Defenders of the Fatherland of Kazakhstan on May 7 should not be confused with the Victory Day on May 9.

"For example, fuel, travel expenses, meals for the troops, etc. Recently we also held military exercises. Which choice is more important to us - holding exercises to strengthen the combat effectiveness of the troops or holding a military parade? We think, Fulfilling the instructions of the Supreme Commander and focusing on strengthening the combat capabilities of the troops is a higher priority option," Zaksilkov said.

Earlier in April, Kazakhstan and the United States announced their intention to expand their high-level strategic partnership. Uzra Zeya, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Civil Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, paid a visit to Kazakhstan on April 11. Kazakhstan's First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahan Rekhmetulin said after the meeting that this dialogue mechanism will provide additional impetus to bilateral relations and promote Kazakhstan's democratic agenda.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States Yerzhan Ashkbayev held a brief meeting with US President Biden during a protocol event held at the White House on April 4. The Kazakh Ambassador conveyed the greetings from Kazakh President Tokayev and emphasized the willingness to further promote the expansion of strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States.The US president welcomed the continued constructive cooperation between the two countries on hot issues on their bilateral and regional agendas.

Suleimanov, the First Deputy Director of the Presidential Office of Kazakhstan, also made a pro-Western stance early. Suleimanov said in an interview with the European media "EURACTIV" at the end of March, " Kazakhstan will not become a tool to circumvent the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia." He also said that Kazakhstan respects the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine and will not recognize the independence of Donbass and Crimea in the past and in the future.

Suleymanov pointed out: "Although we are members of the Eurasian Economic Union like Russia and Belarus, we are also a member of the international community. We do not want the United States and the European Union to impose secondary sanctions on Kazakhstan. , Therefore, we must prove to our European partners that Kazakhstan will not become a tool for Russia to circumvent US and EU sanctions. "

On February 10, 2022 local time, Russian President Putin will meet in Moscow, Russia. Visiting Kazakhstan President Tokayev. The Paper Image Picture

In January this year, public protests broke out in Kazakhstan due to rising oil prices, which quickly evolved into a high-level coup. At that time, the Russian-dominated CSTO immediately sent troops to express support at Tokayev's invitation. After receiving support from Russian President Vladimir Putin, the outside world generally believed that the relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia would be further strengthened.

However, after the domestic political turmoil subsided, Tokayev came up with a complete set of reform plans in his latest State of the Union address on March 16. He frankly admitted that the current situation in Russia and Ukraine highlighted the importance of national independence and promised Carry out comprehensive political reform.

Tokayev emphasized in his speech that the country's sovereignty and independence must be safeguarded. "This is our sacred duty to future generations." He said that the people of Kazakhstan now have a deeper understanding of the meaning of independence and a clearer understanding of it. The importance of peace and stability, "With the geopolitical situation deteriorating sharply, Kazakhstan is facing financial and economic difficulties unprecedented in modern history."

Uzbekistan is the first country to explicitly call on Russia to stop its "invasion" Asian country and the country with the most flexible relations with Russia in the region. Uzbekistan is neither a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union nor a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization . It is relatively freer than other Central Asian countries in handling relations with Russia.

On March 17, Uzbekistan Foreign Minister Kamilov gave a speech in the Senate urging the two sides in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to reach a diplomatic solution, and bluntly emphasized that Russia should first stop the "invasion", but Kamilov's statement The conflict was not explicitly blamed on either side.

On the Ukraine issue, Uzbekistan, like Kazakhstan, is trying to maintain a certain "safe distance" from Moscow so as not to be regarded as Russia's "teammate" by the West. At the same time, it is trying to remain neutral and not to anger Moscow.

The day after Russia launched a "special military operation," the Kremlin issued a statement on February 25 saying that Putin had a telephone conversation with Uzbek President Mirziyoyev, and the latter "reacted to Russia's actions." Action shows understanding.” But Mirziyoyev's spokesperson later posted in English on Facebook: "I would like to emphasize that Uzbekistan adopts a balanced and neutral position on this issue." "All disputes and differences that arise must be based solely on the basis of "

Russian President Putin shook hands with Uzbek President Mirziyoyev. The Paper Image Data Map

In fact, Uzbekistan has long valued developing relations with the West. President Mirziyoyev opened a new era of reform and opening up in the country in 2016, and at the same time actively adjusted foreign policy. In 2018, Mirziyoyev visited the United States. The two sides signed "The United States and Uzbekistan: Opening a New Era of Strategic Partnership" and reached an important consensus on military cooperation between the United States and Uzbekistan. The two sides also signed a cooperation agreement worth US$5 billion. trade contract.The then President of the United States, Trump, praised Uzbekistan's domestic reforms and promised to support Uzbekistan's accession to the World Trade Organization.

Mirziyoyev said that Uzbekistan had resumed work related to joining the WTO in November 2017. In July 2019, Ukraine formally submitted a memorandum on Ukraine’s foreign trade system to the WTO. In November of the same year, the EU announced that it would provide funding for the country's accession to the WTO. The Uzbek Foreign Ministry stated in 2019 that under the framework of the "Uzbekistan Accession Agreement on WTO", the EU allocated 5.2 million euros to it to promote this process.

On March 10 this year, according to the website of the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade of Uzbekistan, the European Union and Uzbekistan launched the implementation of the guidance outline for expanded cooperation from 2021 to 2027. According to the cooperation outline, the EU will provide 83 million euros in free assistance to Ukraine from 2021 to 2024, of which 76 million euros will be used to implement jointly developed cooperation projects, technical assistance and budget support, and 7 million euros will be used to support Uzbek civil society and human rights. field development.

According to Japan's Kyodo News Agency on April 15, Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi held a video conference with the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries on the same day. Regarding Russia's "attack" on Ukraine, the participants reached an agreement on continuing to communicate closely. Lin Fangzheng said at the meeting: "Japan will continue to provide cooperation as a major and reliable partner for Central Asia." Representatives of Central Asian countries expressed their expectation for Japan's continued support. In addition, Lin Fangzheng is also coordinating visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan starting at the end of this month.

Central Asia's "cautious silence"

An analysis of an article by the Moscow Carnegie Center on March 30 pointed out that with the "prolongation" of Russian military operations, the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have shifted from silent expressions of concern to implicit expressions. criticism. They allowed some domestic anti-war protests, allowed civil society groups to collect humanitarian aid for Ukraine, and banned local displays of the "Z" symbol used by war supporters. The three governments also reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine's territorial integrity.

In Uzbekistan, the government did not sanction so-called "anti-war rallies" and controlled independent reporting of "war" on social media. However, it subtly allowed some public gestures of support for Kiev, including letting marchers display Ukrainian flags prominently in Tashkent and Samarkand and tolerating small rallies outside the Ukrainian embassy. Neither of these scenarios can happen without official approval. Uzbekistan, along with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, has provided humanitarian aid and medical supplies to Ukraine.

The Uzbek government has also warned Uzbek immigrants in Russia that serving in a foreign army could be punishable by up to five years in prison if they are conscripted or recruited to serve in the Russian army - a clear warning to Uzbeks demanding They do not participate directly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In Kyrgyzstan, which still decided to hold the " Immortal Legion " parade on Victory Day, the Kyrgyz national security department called on clothing rental merchants on April 21 to remove military uniforms and clothing with the "Z" symbol from their shelves, and also urged citizens not to participate in the parade. Wearing this logo, we also warned that "any action that incites discord between ethnic groups will bear legal responsibility."

Russian military vehicles are driving in Crimea on February 24, 2022 local time. The Paper Picture

After Russia announced a "special military action" against Ukraine, the "Z" pattern spray-painted on thousands of tanks , armored personnel carriers and other vehicles became a symbol of support for Russia. On March 29, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba posted on his personal Twitter that he called on all countries to regard the use of the "Z" symbol as an act of openly supporting Russia's "aggression" against Ukraine, and proposed that this act be criminalized. for crime.

Russia has military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These two countries have a large number of expatriates working in Russia and have deep political, economic and military ties with Russia. Compared with their statements on the situation in Russia and Ukraine so far, More cautious.In Kyrgyzstan, demonstrations against Russian military operations are banned, and the Kyrgyz government fined protesters in mid-March, but such demonstrations still occur from time to time.

In a March 20 interview on state television, the deputy chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s cabinet emphasized that every country has the right to “determine its domestic and foreign policies” in accordance with the United Nations Charter . Kyrgyzstan’s foreign minister also reiterated the country’s commitment to the principle of territorial integrity and called for the establishment of stable humanitarian corridors in Ukraine – neither of which could be seen as support for Russia.

It is worth mentioning that Moscow released news at the end of February that the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan expressed understanding of Russia’s actions, while the national news agencies of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan only stated that the two sides “exchanged information on the situation in Ukraine” when dealing with relevant reports. Opinion". Turkmenistan adheres to its long-standing principle of "permanent neutrality" and avoids all public comments.

Turkmenistan and Tajikistan have said little publicly about the military campaign, aside from brief mentions of the arrests of their citizens in Ukraine. Russian Federation Council Chairman Valentina Matviyenko visited Tajikistan the day after the "Special Military Operation" and held public and private discussions on Russia's reasons. However, the Tajik government did not publicly respond to her statement or release any Ukraine-related discussions she held with senior officials, instead focusing on Russia's security cooperation with Tajikistan on Afghanistan .

The British Economist website published an article titled "Silent Stans" on March 26, pointing out that the five Central Asian countries are "walking a tightrope" between Russia and Ukraine. None of the five countries strongly condemned Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, but none publicly expressed support. The five countries did not feel pressured to follow Putin's lead and recognize Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

In fact, after Putin signed a presidential decree on the evening of February 21 to recognize the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic", Central Asian countries were sensitive to the deeper meaning behind this move, because China The sovereign territory of the Asian country in the past thirty years began with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Taking this into account, Putin stressed on February 24 that Russia now respects and will respect the sovereignty of CIS countries in the future, directly responding to the concerns of Central Asian countries. Putin also said that Russia has been trying to reach an agreement on NATO non-eastward expansion for 30 years, but has been deceived, pressured and blackmailed. Russia cannot feel safe, nor can it develop and survive, so it carries out "special military operations" against Ukraine.

On March 19, 2022 local time, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, the new President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimukhamedov was officially sworn in. People's Vision Picture

In isolationist Turkmenistan, the new president Serdar Berdimukhamedov has just taken over power from his father Gurbanguly and is busy building his own political team.

According to Agence France-Presse news on March 15, the 64-year-old former Turkish President Berdimukhamedov announced in December that he had made a "difficult decision" considering his age and hoped that Leave the country to "young leaders." A few days later, his son became the designated heir. On March 15, 40-year-old Serdar Berdimukhamedov was officially elected as the country’s president.

The voting patterns of the five Central Asian countries in recent United Nations General Assembly votes also show their cautious attitude. In addition to Turkmenistan's absence from the two votes, in the vote on March 2 to condemn Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan abstained from voting, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan voted absentee. In the April 7 vote to suspend Russia's membership, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan all voted against it.

Central Asia’s economic recovery faces uncertainties

Since the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan’s som has fallen by 15%, Kazakhstan’s tenge has fallen by 14%, and Uzbekistan’s som has also depreciated. The World Bank pointed out in a report in early April that the Central Asian economy may shrink by 4.1% in 2022 as the impact of the war on the economy has further aggravated the impact of the epidemic. The agency previously predicted that the Central Asian economy is expected to achieve 3% growth this year.

The World Bank also revised its economic forecasts for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the major Central Asian economies, lowering their growth forecasts of 3.7% and 6% at the beginning of the year to 1.8% and 3.6% respectively.

The World Bank made the above prediction based on the fact that Russia's economic recession has indirectly damaged Kazakhstan's supply chain and shaken people's confidence in the economic prospects. The economy of the relevant countries is highly dependent on close import and export trade with Russia and Ukraine, as well as remittances income from Russia. "Remittance income from Russia accounts for about 30% of the GDP of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan."

Mamarizo Nurmuratov, Governor of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, pointed out that the funds remitted from Russia in March Vastly reduced volume: The collapse of the ruble and huge uncertainty about the future has led many Uzbek immigrants in Russia to keep cash. The foreign currency standards of the Bank of Uzbekistan may change. Immigrant remittances to Uzbekistan totaled more than $8 billion in 2021 and are expected to fall by more than 20% this year.

According to a report by the Moscow Times on April 20, the economic problems caused by Western sanctions in Russia have caused difficulties for the approximately 2.5 million Central Asian workers living and working in Russia. These people are usually located in the Russian construction, retail, and fast food industries. Some of them are considering returning home. Those who stay will face layoffs, lower wages and fewer job prospects - as jobs tend to go first to Russians.

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin said on April 18 that due to sanctions imposed on Russia, about 200,000 Russian employees working in foreign companies in the city are at risk of unemployment. In this regard, Russia has introduced relevant plans to help these people find employment. Data from the Yale School of Management shows that since Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine in late February this year, more than 750 companies have publicly announced that they will reduce their business in Russia to a certain extent.

The Moscow Times reported that since this year, at least 133,000 labor immigrants from Uzbekistan have returned from Russia. Tajikistan, one of the region's poorest countries, has welcomed nearly 60,500 returnees since January. The return of this group of working people is expected to put pressure on the home country where unemployment is already high, exacerbating the unemployment problem.

The effects of large population influxes are difficult to reduce to positive or negative. In Uzbekistan, some expatriates, including Russians, came to the country to avoid being involved in the Ukrainian conflict and tried to reintegrate into Uzbekistan. Housing prices in the country have increased dramatically recently, and rents in Tashkent have become prohibitive. There are also many IT experts among them, so much so that the Ministry of Interior of Uzbekistan has specially prepared a special entry visa for them.

It is reported that starting from April 1, the Uzbek government will issue a one-year renewable fast-track work visa to foreign investors in the IT industry. Qualified investors can apply for a three-year application for themselves and their families through the recently launched website. long-term visa and simplified residence permit procedures, and enjoy free education and medical services for their children.

Editor in charge: Zhang Wuwei Picture editor: Jiang Lidong

Proofreading: Luan Meng