June 17, 2022 06:40 Market Information
Source: Energy R&D Center
Converting trading plans into trading habits is an effective means to successfully implement self-control. Changing your trading behavior from passive execution to active execution is a process of habit formation. The formation process of habits is a process of continuous criticism and self-criticism, which needs to be continuously strengthened during the practice of trading. When the idea of going against your trading plan is about to sprout in your heart, you should say loudly, "You coward, you are betraying yourself again!!". In the process of forming habits of continuous reinforcement, continuous self-criticism, and continuous denial of yourself, you will gradually experience the pleasure and sense of accomplishment of being immersed in the trading process rather than in the results.
If you only look at the closing market, you will feel that oil prices are strong, but you may not feel the huge challenge faced by oil prices this night. In fact, oil prices once fell sharply by nearly 5 US dollars after the European session. After commodities fell across the board for many days, oil prices also increased. In order to adjust the level, U.S. WTI crude oil led the market decline. This week's correction once exceeded 10 US dollars. The trend in the last two trading days can be said to some extent that the U.S. government has achieved certain results in cooling oil prices. Of course, the recent cooling of financial market risk appetite due to macro-level shocks is another important reason. Oil prices were strong for a few days at the beginning of the week. As the overall market risk appetite continued to cool, it eventually joined the callback team.
It is clear that this drop in oil prices is part of the systemic decline in commodities caused by the macro level. Non-ferrous, black, energy and chemical and other industrial products have all fallen sharply, and some varieties have already set new lows for the year. Although there are differences between different commodities There are differences in strength and weakness, but we have to admit that many varieties of the industrial products market have already peaked and entered the short market. According to previous research, after a large-scale bull market in the commodity market, crude oil is usually the last product to turn around. Although currently based on the supply and demand level of the crude oil market, the downward momentum of oil prices in the third quarter is not enough, but it is still necessary to objectively look at the entire commodity market, especially The industrial products market, which is more closely related to the economy, is in the process of turning from a high level. This market atmosphere will change investors' expectations and will also have an impact on the operation of oil prices. Due to the efforts of consuming countries and the pressure of macro factors, this round of adjustment in oil prices has been the strongest adjustment in more than a month. This is also the risk we warned earlier.
As the U.S. Treasury Department issued new sanctions against Iran , it said that if an agreement cannot be reached, Iran's oil exports will continue to be restricted. Oil prices once again recovered from the lows in the night session. The current supply tightness in the oil market is still a factor plaguing the market. There is news that the U.S. White House is considering restricting fuel exports. The monthly difference structure is still defensive, indicating that tight supply in the crude oil market is still a reality. Without effective Before solving the supply-side dilemma, it is still recommended to maintain the idea of maintaining high and volatile oil prices. SC crude oil's discount to international oil prices set a new low for the year, due to the exchange rate and the East-West supply and demand gap internal and external market differentiation has become more serious. At this stage, the factors affecting oil prices have become complicated, so choose opportunities carefully.
Daily News
[1] WTI's main crude oil futures closed up $2.27, or 1.97%, at $117.58/barrel; Brent 's main crude oil futures closed up $1.3, or 1.1%, at $119.81/barrel; INE crude oil futures closed down 1.98% at 734.5 yuan.
[2] U.S. dollar index fell by 0.99% to 103.83; Hong Kong Stock Exchange USD/CNY fell by 0.08% to 6.7364; U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds rose by 0.55% to 116.52; Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 2.42% to 6.7364 29927.07.
Recent News
【1】Concerns about economic recession enveloped the market, U.S. stocks plummeted and gold returned to above 1850;
The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Thursday, and the U.S. dollar fell nearly 1%. The decline in global stock markets has spread to the U.S. stock market, and concerns about an economic recession have resurfaced.At the same time, U.S. housing starts and building permit data in May fell short of expectations, intensifying traders' bets on a higher probability of a U.S. recession. The fall in the U.S. dollar enhanced gold's appeal among overseas buyers, with gold returning above $1,850;
The S&P 500 index closed down 3.25%; The Nasdaq index fell 4.1%; Nasdaq The 100 index closed down 4%, the lowest since November 2020; the Dow closed down about 700 points, closing below 30,000 points for the first time since January 2021. JPMorgan Chase said that the current trend of the S&P 500 index indicates that the probability of a U.S. economic recession is as high as 85%;
Argus Research said that although the U.S. economy is currently performing well and may still grow for one or two quarters, an economic recession in 2023 The probability is rising rapidly;
Gold rose more than 1% to close at $1,854.8 per ounce. Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at BlueLine Futures in Chicago, said gold got a shot in the arm as the dollar and yields fell, especially after Fed Chairman Powell said 75 basis points of interest rate hikes wouldn't be common if Inflation has flattened, and the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates so aggressively
[2] On the 16th local time, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the European Union Chizhov said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline may be affected by Turbine needs maintenance and is out of service. Once this happens, it will be a disaster for Germany. According to media reports, affected by the decline in "Nord Stream" gas transmission, the price of natural gas in the European market has risen to US$1,460 per 1,000 cubic meters;
When asked about natural gas supply cuts, the Kremlin said , there were problems with the turbines due to sanctions, and supply was not deliberately cut. Gazprom CEO: The company is cutting natural gas supplies to Europe. We are seeing a hit in natural gas prices. "Thanks" to European regulators and the third energy (sanctions) package, Nord Stream 2 can start supply immediately. gas. EU may be competing with Asian customers for expensive LNG , with companies' gas flows to the EU falling sharply but prices rising.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Most of Gazprom’s European customers have switched to rubles to pay for natural gas, accounting for 90-95% of the total. The Saudi Minister of Energy was briefed on the latest situation of Russian oil production. The meeting with the Saudi Minister of Energy was very important. We discussed oil price forecasts and market balance issues. The oil market is balanced but there is a lot of uncertainty and it is important to continue working together at OPEC+ to avoid an oil market collapse.
[3] The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that demand is expected to rise further in 2023, growing by more than 2% to a record 101.6 million barrels per day. The IEA also said that higher crude and fuel prices helped Russia's revenue climb in May, even as exports fell due to sanctions. Its findings highlighted that bans on Russian energy exports have exacerbated supply constraints and pushed up prices.
Bernstein analysts said in a report: "Looking ahead to next year, supply shortages are obvious, and although the economic recession may slow down inventory declines, the current situation is still bullish on oil prices." The agency estimates that global oil inventory levels can only last 48 days. , 55 days below the long-term average.
Facing the pressure of high gasoline prices, U.S. President Biden on Wednesday sent a letter to executives from companies such as Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N), Valero Energy (VLO.N) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N). management, asking them to explain why they are not expanding their refining operations.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Wednesday that Biden is open to "all reasonable uses" of the federal government's tools aimed at increasing production and reducing costs at the pump. The president is willing to use the Defense Production Act if it can help the United States improve its oil refining capacity.
