There is no doubt about the tone of the new plan - a period in the future. my country will continue to vigorously promote green development and clean transformation, renewable energy will continue to grow, and high-carbon fossil energy will be significantly reduced.

[Energy people are watching, click on the upper right corner to add "Follow"]

Author | Chen Zongfa

Recently, some research institutions, government departments and energy companies have started preparations for the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy and power. There is no suspense in the tone of the new plan - in the future, our country will continue to vigorously promote green development and clean transformation, renewable energy will continue to grow, and high-carbon fossil energy will be significantly reduced.

At this time, my country’s coal-fired power generation has not yet emerged from the “second difficult period.” Since the "13th Five-Year Plan", my country's coal and electricity operating performance has been declining rapidly: "cut in half" in 2016; "falling through the floor" in 2017; and "sitting up" in 2018. In addition to losses, the asset-liability ratio of power generation groups has been running at a high level for a long time. Although it has dropped from the peak of 85% in 2008, it was still close to 78% in 2018. Huge financial expenses eroded current profits.

At present, coal and electricity companies in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Northeast China, Qinghai, Henan and other regions are experiencing overall losses. Some coal and electricity companies are insolvent and rely on group guarantees and entrusted loans to survive. Some have even been shut down or bankrupt. A few listed power companies have It is difficult for performance to improve, and it faces the risk of being ST or delisted.

Such a severe situation also appeared in the "first difficult period" in the history of coal power from 2008 to 2011. The five major power generation groups' thermal power sectors suffered cumulative losses of 92.1 billion yuan. From 2012 to 2014, the operating conditions of thermal power plants improved year by year. In 2015, the performance reached the top, entering the best period since the power reform in 2002.

In the context of clean energy transformation, my country's energy structure is continuously optimized and clean and renewable energy is developing rapidly. However, the energy pattern of "coal as the basis, coal and electricity as the main source, and oil and gas imported" has not been fundamentally shaken so far. Coal and coal and electricity are still the main energy sources.

Coal power still has a “567” proportional advantage in the energy structure. In 2018, my country's installed electricity capacity reached 1.9 billion kilowatts, of which: coal power installed capacity was 1.01 billion, accounting for 53%; coal power generation capacity was 4.45 trillion kilowatt hours, accounting for 64%; fuel costs accounted for about 70% of the cost of coal power generation.

Under such circumstances, at the key node of the formulation of the next five-year plan, how to resolve the unprecedented confusion and embarrassment, find a new position in the modern energy system, and ensure the clean and efficient use of coal power and high-quality survival and development are still It is one of the core topics that cannot be avoided.

The second difficult period of coal power

The difficulty of survival of coal power is explained by a set of data: the thermal power profits of the five major power generation groups in 2015 were as high as 88.2 billion yuan, while in 2016 they were only 36.7 billion yuan, a sharp drop of 58.4%; in 2017, thermal power profits The loss was 13.2 billion yuan. Except for the National Energy Group, the four major power generation groups all suffered losses, with the loss accounting for 60%. In 2018, the profits of thermal power companies nationwide were 32.3 billion yuan, and 43.8% were still in the red. Now, it remains to be seen whether we can "move forward" in 2019 and whether we can achieve a comprehensive "moderate prosperity" in 2020.

It is undeniable that my country's clean development of coal power has achieved positive results. Air pollutant emissions have dropped rapidly, power generation efficiency has continued to improve, carbon emission intensity has continued to decline, water consumption and wastewater emissions have decreased year by year, and the level of comprehensive utilization of solid waste has significantly improved. Coal power has Power generation technology and pollutant control technology have reached the world's advanced level. However, the coal power industry is currently facing various confusions and is in the "second difficult period", which is mainly reflected in:

First, the prospects of coal power are unclear and there is great social controversy. For many years, society has been debating endlessly on whether coal power should be included in the future energy structure, or what role coal power should play. There has never been a consensus, and the prospects of coal power are unclear.

The group represented by climate experts and new energy companies believes that coal pollutes the environment, and the transition to clean energy is like moving to a new home. Without throwing away the "old sofa" of coal and electricity, it is impossible to buy the "new sofa" of renewable energy. Because there is no space, the phenomenon of "three abandonments" in our country is caused by the excessive scale of coal power.

The group represented by coal power enterprises believes that coal power cannot be "demonized". Our country is a coal-rich country. Renewable energy is unstable and economical. At critical moments, coal power must be relied on, and coal power has adopted ultra-low emissions. Although the transformation has achieved clean utilization, we should still rely on and develop coal power.

Second, there is excess power production capacity. Squeezed by market competition and new energy, coal and electricity prices have fallen.The growth of electricity consumption in our country has continued to decline, with an increase of 13% in the "10th Five-Year Plan"; an increase of 11.1% in the "11th Five-Year Plan"; an increase of 5.7% in the "12th Five-Year Plan"; and an increase of 3.6-4.8% in the "13th Five-Year Plan". Currently, my country has overcapacity in electric power and systemic risks in the power generation industry are increasing.

Thermal power utilization hours have been declining from 5991 hours in 2004 to 4165 hours in 2016. The decline has stabilized in 2017 and 2018, reaching 4209 hours and 4361 hours respectively. However, the average equipment utilization has dropped to about 50%. A large number of The unit is on standby.

In the same period, the pace of green energy development has accelerated significantly, with wind, solar, water, nuclear, gas, and biomass simultaneously developing. In particular, wind power has grown rapidly, photovoltaic has set off a "frenzy" to install, and the proportion of clean energy installed capacity has increased significantly. By the end of 2018, my country's non-fossil energy installed capacity was 776 million kilowatts, accounting for 40.8% of the total capacity; non-fossil energy power generation was 2.16 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 30.9% of the total power generation. Moreover, in recent years, subsidies for new energy have been reduced, grid parity has been promoted, and market competitiveness has been significantly enhanced. Coal-fired power has had to make concessions in order to prioritize the consumption of clean energy.

In addition, with the advancement of the new electricity reform in 2015 and the substantial liberalization of power generation and consumption plans, the era of comprehensive bidding has begun, with coal-fired power being the first to bear the brunt, and the "price reduction wave" sweeping across the country. Coal-fired power companies in some regions “cannot live without it” and are in deep existential crisis.

Third, due to the reduction of coal overcapacity and the "factory" trend of coal prices, the fuel costs of coal power companies are high. In 2016, the macroeconomy began to stabilize, and coal demand stopped falling and rebounded, growing by 0.5%. Due to government production restrictions and production capacity reduction, raw coal production was only 3.36 billion tons, a decrease of 9.4%. As a result, the market was in short supply and coal prices rebounded sharply; Guizhou, The supply of thermal coal in Northeast China and other places is "critical", and the local government has to introduce measures to restrict shipments out of the province. Although production was released in 2017 and 2018, demand for coal increased and coal prices fluctuated at high levels, showing a "factory" type trend.

By the end of 2018, the task of reducing coal production capacity by 1 billion tons has been basically completed. The number of coal mines has been reduced to 5,800, and the average production capacity has increased to 920,000 tons/year. The output of the four provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Mongolia and New China accounts for 74.3% of the country’s total. CECI's 5,500 kcal comprehensive price for coastal thermal coal purchases, which reflects fuel costs, fluctuated between 650-700 yuan/ton and 571-635 yuan/ton in 2017 and 2018, respectively, both exceeding the green range stipulated by the state.

During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the tight balance in the coal market and the high price of coal again have a direct impact on the power generation industry, which is the rush for coal for power generation and a sharp increase in fuel costs, resulting in the operating performance of the coal and power industry being glacial.

The fourth is to reduce energy costs and reduce coal and electricity prices, with a "two-pronged approach" by the government and the market. In order to enhance the competitiveness of real enterprises and stabilize economic growth, the country launched supply-side structural reforms in 2015 to reduce energy costs. On the one hand, the government has continuously lowered the benchmark electricity price of coal power. Since 2013, it has been lowered 4 times and raised once, with a net decrease of 6.34 cents per kilowatt hour. It has also canceled preferential electricity prices and special electricity prices that are lower than the benchmark electricity price in various places; By accelerating the release of power development and consumption plans, significantly increasing market transaction power, and continuously innovating transaction types, the price of coal and electricity market transactions has been reduced. Taking a power generation group as an example, the comprehensive transaction price of electricity dropped by 9.3 cents, 6.3 cents, 4.7 cents and 5.2 cents per kilowatt hour respectively from 2015 to 2018.

At present, the government and the market are working together to reduce coal and electricity prices, lowering them again and again, almost to the point of "no lowering". This is far from the goal of "fair transactions and reasonable electricity prices" mentioned in the new power reform document No. 9. The government's expressly stipulated linkage between coal and electricity has become a "flower in the mirror and the moon in the water", which has seriously endangered the survival and supply of coal and electricity.

Fifth, environmental protection policies have been stepped up layer by layer, the marginal effect of environmental protection has declined, and relevant policies have not been implemented in place. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the state launched a series of strict environmental protection measures for existing coal-fired power plants, strictly phasing out 20 million kilowatts of backward production capacity; completing ultra-low emission transformation, energy-saving transformation, and flexibility transformation of coal-fired power plants within a time limit, totaling 980 million kilowatts. The coal consumption of active coal machines is less than 310 g/kWh; clean up and standardize self-owned power plants, strictly implement energy conservation and environmental protection standards; take the lead in implementing pollution discharge permits for thermal power, and change pollution discharge fees to environmental protection taxes; control carbon emission intensity to 550 per kilowatt hour of unit power supply grams, 865 grams of coal-fired machinery, launching carbon emission rights trading; comprehensively carrying out central environmental protection inspections, annual evaluations of ecological civilization construction, etc.

At the same time, the state has also launched a "combination punch" to strictly control the new production capacity of coal power, suspending the construction of 150 million kilowatts of coal power. By 2020, coal power will not exceed 1.1 billion kilowatts, and the coal consumption of new machines will be less than 300 grams/kilowatt hour. Because my country's coal mining machinery is young, advanced, and constantly upgraded and renovated, the marginal effect of environmental protection is declining year by year.

Although the state encourages energy conservation and emission reduction, implements energy-saving dispatch, and introduces an environmentally friendly electricity price totaling 3.5 cents/kWh, the huge environmental investment of coal-fired power plants is difficult to guarantee and compensate. In particular, environmentally friendly electricity prices and bonus power are difficult to cash in coal and electricity bidding transactions. In the long run, the increase in carbon emission costs of coal power will be a new challenge in the future.

There are six main reasons why my country's coal-fired power generation has caused the above confusion:

The world's climate is warming, and my country's haze is frequent; the global clean energy transformation has set off a new energy revolution; the world's "de-coalization" wave, my country's frequent environmental protection Storm, clean and renewable energy is developing rapidly; market systemic risks are increasing, coal market supply is tight, power market has overcapacity, coal and electricity conflicts have broken out, and coal and electricity linkage is not in place; policy guidance has few benefits but many disadvantages, reducing energy costs, coal Cut overcapacity; the electricity reform in 2002 led to a huge expansion of coal power, and the new electricity reform in 2015 led to a sharp increase in market-based transactions.

In short, this is the result of the superposition and long-term comprehensive effect of multiple factors such as climate and environmental changes, energy reform trends, increased market risks, national policy guidance, power company business development strategies, and the impact of major events.

Only comprehensive policies can solve the dilemma of coal and electricity

Faced with various confusions and severe situations, how will my country's coal and electricity enterprises solve the difficulties and seek development while surviving in the future? It has increasingly become a major and urgent issue that is widely considered and explored in the power industry. Personally, I believe that only by taking comprehensive measures and making long-term achievements can we win the future.

(1) Recognize the situation clearly and find the correct positioning

Clean and low-carbon is the development direction of future energy, and clean energy transformation is a major international trend. In recent years, the EU has been striving to enter the "renewable energy era". For example, Germany has promulgated a renewable energy law, abandoned coal and nuclear power, made every effort to develop wind and photovoltaic power, and implemented a full electrification strategy. What about the United States, which proposed "revitalizing the coal industry", abolished Obama's "Clean Power Plan", and withdrew from the "Paris Agreement"?

is actually unexpected. From 2000 to 2017, coal consumption in the energy consumption structure of the United States dropped from 24.6% to 14.3%. In April this year, renewable energy installed capacity and power generation both surpassed coal power, and it announced that it has entered a "new era of energy", emphasizing "innovation" and "Fossil energy utilization" includes stabilizing oil, increasing gas, reducing coal, stabilizing nuclear power, and vigorously developing renewable energy.

In 2018, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have shut down coal-fired power plants to achieve "gasification"; Qinghai successfully achieved "Green Power 9 Days" - continuous power supply with all clean energy; Zhangjiakou is a national renewable energy demonstration zone. The hydrogen energy industry is beginning to take shape; renewable energy consumption increased by 29%, accounting for 45% of global growth, and my country's non-fossil energy consumption accounted for 14.3% of primary energy consumption.

In the future, our country will continue to accelerate the pace of green development and form a "clean family" that simultaneously develops water, nuclear, wind, light, gas, hydrogen energy, biomass, etc. The proportion of clean installed capacity will increase significantly, which means that the living space of coal power will be Continued reduction. At the same time, in order to fundamentally solve the "three abandonment" problems, it is necessary to improve the power grid's regulation capabilities through upgrading coal power, building peak-shaving power supplies, developing energy storage technology, and strengthening demand-side management.

Of course, due to my country’s rich coal and short of oil and gas, the current power supply structure, and the economic stability of coal power, there is still some room for development of coal power in the future, and it will be indispensable for a long period of time.

In this regard, we must have a clear understanding, make scientific predictions, and regard "building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system" as our historical mission and responsibility. The strategic positioning of my country's coal power will gradually change from "main power source, basic status, Supporting role" shifts to "equal emphasis on base-load power supply and regulated power supply" to fully absorb clean energy peak shaving and ensure safe power supply; clean renewable energy will become the main power supply (2030: accounting for 50%; 2035: more than 70%); distributed energy, microgrids, multi-energy complementation, etc. will become important new energy supply methods.

(2) Make progress by retreating and actively reduce coal power production.

Since 2007, coal power has been actively "increasing the size of the coal-fired power generation and suppressing the small size" of 100 million kilowatts. During the "13th Five-Year Plan", backward production capacity of 0.2 billion kilowatts has been eliminated, and the construction of 150 million kilowatts has been suspended. A total of 270 million kilowatts. However, coal-fired power still has problems such as huge stock, too high proportion, idle equipment, and operating difficulties. To this end, the following measures should be taken:

- Deepen supply-side reform and actively reduce "ineffective supply". On the one hand, we must continue to implement the "13th Five-Year Plan" national and local government policies on resolving excess coal power production capacity and eliminating backward production capacity, and implement "forced shutdown" of coal power units below 300,000 kilowatts that do not meet the requirements; on the other hand, power generation The industry must seize the opportunity and take advantage of the shutdown compensation policy to implement "compensation measures based on local conditions" for some old and small units that are overage, have no hope of turning around, have substandard energy consumption, environmental protection and safety, and are unable to invest in transformation, or illegal units that have not been approved and have incomplete certificates. Active shutdown" to improve equipment utilization efficiency, promote the consumption of new energy and the integration of the thermal power industry, and realize the transformation of the power market from surplus to balance.

——Be cautious about “opening new doors” to rebalance supply and demand in the electricity market. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, the state banned the construction of new coal-fired power plants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze-Pearl River Delta, and red-orange warning provinces, and suspended the construction of 150 million kilowatts of coal-fired power plants nationwide. At present, we must not blindly launch new projects just because the actual growth of electricity consumption in the "13th Five-Year Plan" is better than expected and coal power utilization hours have slightly rebounded. We must continue to implement the national "combination of strict control of new coal power production capacity" fist".

my country’s current coal power utilization hours of about 4,200 cannot be simply compared to the United States and considered to be reasonable and realistic. China and the United States have different conditions, different stages of development, and different systems and mechanisms. The United States is a developed country that relies on oil and gas, market mechanisms, and scientific electricity prices. By promoting supply-side reform, our country strives to restore 4,800-5,500 hours, which is in line with national conditions, history, and reality. It is conducive to reducing idle equipment and investment waste, and is conducive to coal and power enterprises turning around losses and increasing profits, and achieving sustainable development. Ensure the economics of coal power to support my country's lower electricity prices.

(3) Upgrade and transform, activate the stock

What should we do in the face of the huge coal power units of more than 1 billion kilowatts distributed across the country? In a word, according to the regional business environment, on the basis of elimination and shutdown, we will promote the reorganization and integration of coal power assets (asset transfer, free transfer, entrusted management), treat them differently, and implement the upgrade and transformation of coal machines according to local conditions. Optimize technical and economic indicators, achieve "two lows and one high" (low emissions, low energy consumption, high efficiency) energy supply levels, and enhance the "three capabilities" - the comprehensive energy service capabilities of "cold, hot, electric and water" multi-energy joint supply , enhance auxiliary service capabilities such as frequency regulation, peak regulation, and voltage regulation, and participate in power market competition and coal market centralized procurement capabilities.

In fact, in July 2017, 16 ministries and commissions issued the "Opinions on Promoting Supply-Side Structural Reform and Preventing and Resolving the Risk of Coal Power Overcapacity" (Document No. 1404), which made a systematic deployment of coal machine upgrades and transformations, requiring that " During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the following goals will be achieved: 420 million kilowatts for ultra-low emission transformation; 340 million kilowatts for energy-saving transformation; and 220 million kilowatts for flexibility transformation.

has achieved remarkable results so far. By the end of 2018, 810 million kilowatts of ultra-low emission transformation had been completed, accounting for 80% of the country's coal-fired power plants. The "Three Norths" region has completed more than 40 million kilowatts of coal power flexibility transformation, of which 23.8 million (about 60%) are in the Northeast. The cost of paid peak-shaving ancillary services in Northeast China is 2.78 billion yuan, and the average price is 0.525 yuan, which is higher than the local coal-fired benchmark electricity price.Experts at

have analyzed that flexibility transformation technology is mature, and the cost of transformation per kilowatt is 120-400 yuan. Participating in peak-shaving services is better than energy storage, gas power, and pumped hydro storage. It is one of the realistic options for coal power and is also conducive to new energy. of consumption.

Of course, at present, some coal power plants are already on the verge of losing money and are difficult to invest. If they participate in deep peak shaving without any modifications, it will cause very large losses to the power generation equipment and is not a long-term solution. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate safety accounts, economic accounts, and future accounts.

(4) Peak management, strict control of increments

To formulate power plans and plan for future development, we must keep pace with the times, change the inertial thinking and common development problems in the past power shortage period, and realize the new normal economic characteristics and changes in power supply and demand. Change and innovation.

introduces peak management to prevent large-scale planning. Looking back at the "13th Five-Year Plan" power plan, one of the biggest highlights is the goal of controlling the installed capacity of coal power to "within 1.1 billion kilowatts and reducing the proportion to 55%" by 2020, with a series of safeguard measures. Without this "ceiling" and blind development, coal-fired power will not be 1.1 billion kilowatts by 2020, but 1.25 billion kilowatts, or even more, and coal-fired power will be even more "embarrassed."

According to predictions, energy demand will mainly rely on clean energy in 2030, and coal power will reach a peak of 1.3 billion kilowatts; in 2050, the installed capacity of coal power will drop to 600 million kilowatts, and a modern energy system will be established. Therefore, when the country prepares medium- and long-term plans for future power, it must strengthen peak management of coal power, consider both ensuring supply, dealing with overcapacity, and balancing the power market.

abandons scale expansion and requires new concepts for development. In the future, when power generation enterprises face market competition and survival of the fittest, they must first implement new development concepts, adhere to value thinking, be clean and low-carbon, rely on planning, market orientation, precise layout, multi-functional complementarity, user-centered, comprehensive services, and achieve high-quality development Second, we must focus on the main business of electricity and consolidate traditional advantages, such as Kangkou power plant, transmission port power plant, coal and electricity integration, port and electricity integration, combined heat and power, industry-finance integration, road and port supporting facilities, etc.; third, we must seize opportunities and actively promote "Transformation and development" requires breaking through the constraints and risks of a single power generation business, taking advantage of the opportunities of power reform, energy ecology reshaping, industry cross-border integration, and the development of the "One Belt and One Road", focusing on "green" development, extending "downward", Expanding "externally" and getting involved in "new" business formats, strategically entering the fields of power distribution and sales, energy storage and energy saving, frequency modulation and peak regulation, hot and cold electric water, etc., integrating heating and network sources, integrating distribution, distribution and sales, multi-energy joint supply and auxiliary services. , and systematically optimize the development pattern to achieve vertical "source-grid-load-storage-use", horizontal multi-energy complementation, industrial synergy, and regional balance.

(5) Expand the market externally and strengthen internal management

What is gratifying is that in recent years, within the power industry, the following "four major consensuses" have been increasingly reached:

Clean and low-carbon is the development direction of future energy, and clean energy transformation It is a major trend of internationalization;

With the economic slowdown, structural optimization, technological progress, energy conservation and emission reduction, it is inevitable that the growth rate of energy (power) consumption will slow down in the future;

The general overcapacity of power is a source of risk in the power generation industry, and it is also a risk source. Improving the business environment is a top priority;

With the advancement of the new electricity reform and the substantial liberalization of power generation and consumption plans, the era of comprehensive bidding will soon come.

Therefore, in the face of market oversupply, fierce competition, and survival of the fittest, coal power companies must do two things to enhance their market competitiveness in the future.

takes the initiative to expand the market. In accordance with the principle of "volume is the basis, price is the key, volume and price are coordinated, and regional optimization", establish a regional or cross-regional marketing system, form a multi-dimensional marketing team, promote the independent operation of electricity sales companies, carry out comprehensive energy services, and enhance large users Stickiness, scientifically formulate trading strategies, actively participate in spot market and medium- and long-term market transactions, oppose market monopoly and vicious competition, and strive to achieve the "three goals": power generation reaches the "three same" level, market power exceeds the installed capacity share, regional power generation Maximize benefits.

has strong internal management to reduce costs and increase efficiency.Focusing on "three electricity" and "four coal", relying on management innovation and technological progress, we will strengthen safety and environmental protection management, production operation management, marketing management, financial risk management, capital operation management, and fuel entire process management to improve asset quality and efficiency. At present, many successful experiences and practices have been explored in practice.

(6) Supporting policies to ensure survival

As a traditional fossil energy, coal power must not only actively adapt to the needs of green development, but also fully participate in market competition. "Survival of the fittest" and "survival of the fittest" are the key to my country's clean energy transformation and electricity market-oriented reform The inevitable result of advancement.

Due to the impact of multiple factors such as market excess, coal and electricity contradictions, safety and environmental protection, energy transformation, and policy gaps, coal and electricity are currently experiencing overall losses and industry difficulties. Some serious areas have triggered a "wave of closures and bankruptcies", which has affected To survive in the thermal power industry. However, my country’s energy resource endowment and the fundamental status of coal power determine that coal power will be indispensable for a long time to come.

In order to ensure the "survival of the fittest" in coal power, in addition to coal power companies continuing to strengthen internal management, expand external markets, advance science and technology, operate capital, and wait for a turnaround, relevant national departments and local governments also need to follow the new strategic positioning of coal power. , in response to the transition period of market-oriented reform and the energy transformation period, adjust and improve old policies and introduce new effective policies.

For example: retain environmentally friendly electricity prices and implement them in place, explore the establishment of a two-part electricity price and capacity market; reduce the government's directional restrictions on market transactions and price intervention, and form a market pricing mechanism; allow provinces and regions with severe coal and electricity losses to restart the coal-power linkage policy, Increase tax and fee reductions; sign medium- and long-term contracts for thermal coal and implement a "basic price + floating price" pricing mechanism; encourage coal and electricity joint ventures and cross-industry reorganization of energy companies to build coal and electricity industry chains and supply chains; continue to promote the supply side Reform, strictly control the development of coal power, eliminate backward production capacity; encourage coal power to participate in peak shaving, voltage regulation, and backup, and establish an auxiliary service compensation mechanism; continue to implement the power compensation policy for shut down enterprises and carry out power generation rights transactions; encourage provinces and regions to introduce " Differentiated policies such as “water to supplement fire” and “mutual guarantee of coal and electricity”.

Disclaimer: The above content is reproduced from Huaxia Energy Network, and the content posted does not represent the position of this platform. National Energy Information Platform contact number 010-65367827, email [email protected]