Liu Bowen
Investment consulting license number: Z0014252
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: Tubarão, Brazil - China Qingdao on 6/27 The freight rate of iron ore on the island is US$29.89/ton, month-on-month - 0.2%, +9.3% year-on-year. On June 27, the freight from Indonesian Samarin to Guangzhou, China was US$12.58/ton, -0.6% month-on-month and -7.1% year-on-year. On June 27, the freight rate from Santos, Brazil to the northern port of China was US$68.72/ton, -0.6% month-on-month, +4.5% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: The SCFI Shanghai export container freight comprehensive index for the week of June 24 was reported at 4216.13, month-on-month. -0.1%, -11.0% year-on-year, of which the container freight rate on the SCFI China-US West route was US$7,378/FEU, -1.5% month-on-month, and +56.4% year-on-year; the container freight rate on the SCFI China-Europe route was US$5,766/FEU, month-on-month. -2.7%, -11.0% year-on-year.
3. Since the end of 2020, shipowners’ interest in ordering ships below 8,000 TEU has increased significantly. The current order book for these ships is 1.9 million TEU, which is 5 times the low of 19 months ago. Especially in the past 12 months, the market has shown greater interest in small ship types. During this period, 39.6% of all new orders were for ship types below 8,000 TEU. In the 36 months before October 2020, this number One ratio is 22.3%.
4. Ministry of Transport: Since June, the average daily throughput of Shanghai Port container has been 125,800 TEUs, recovering to more than 95% of the same period last year, and the highest daily throughput has exceeded 140,000 TEUs; Pudong Airport and Baiyun Airport has basically returned to normal levels. The number of individual boxes at Pudong Airport has exceeded 10,000 tons.
[Market Outlook]
Containers, on the demand side, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, demand-side pressure is gradually emerging. In the United States, the impact of inflation on the economy is the biggest problem currently facing it. After the June Federal Reserve interest rate meeting raised interest rates by 75 BP, the market expects that interest rates may still be raised by 75 BP in July, and Fed expectations of tightening monetary policy continue to strengthen. At present, many domestic retailers in the United States have high inventories, and import demand during the peak season is still facing challenges. In Europe, due to the emergence of the new coronavirus Omicron subtype and the continued spread of the monkeypox virus, the epidemic is still severe; the geopolitical risks caused by the superimposed Russia-Ukraine conflict have not yet been alleviated, and high inflation continues to drag down the economic recovery of the European region in the medium and long term. In the short term, with the gradual recovery of shipping volume in Shanghai and the intensification of European port congestion during the peak season, container freight rates are still expected to rebound. However, due to the impact of rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, orders on hand are still at a low level, and the shipping capacity of dry bulk carriers will not be able to increase in the next 2-3 years. On the demand side, rare high-temperature weather has occurred in many places around the world this year. Coupled with the recent lifting of thermal power restrictions in Europe, Europe still has a demand for coal after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Especially with the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, coal demand is expected to increase. In terms of iron ore, demand for iron ore is expected to decrease due to the profit losses of steel mills and the pressure to reduce production caused by policy-based production restrictions in China in the second half of the year. In terms of grain, global grain transportation demand is generally stable. Currently, India and Russia have restarted the new route of the "North-South Corridor Plan" to transport goods from Russia to India via Iran . As Russia-Ukraine grain trade gradually recovers, short-term grain trade is expected to improve. . Against the background that the supply side is unable to increase volume, with the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are still expected to fluctuate upward.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
cbot The soybean index was overall flat, closing at 1465.53 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index was overall flat, closing at 401.7 US dollars/short ton.
[Related information]
1. USDA export inspection report: As of the week of June 23, 2022, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 468,300 tons (estimated at 300,000-575,000 tons), which was revised to 42.83 tons in the previous week. The value is 427,300 tons. In the same period last year, it was 111,200 tons.So far this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans is 51.3728 million tons, compared with 57.3653 million tons in the same period of the previous year;
2.USDA: As of the week of June 26, the growth rate of U.S. soybeans was 65%, and the estimate was 68%. 68% the previous week, 60% in the same period last year, of which the flowering rate was 7%, 14% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 11%;
3. USDA: As of June 1, the expected average value of U.S. soybean stocks is 965 million bushels, An increase of 25.5% from 769 million bushels in the same period last year; the expected average value of corn stocks is 4.343 billion bushels, an increase of 5.6% from 4.111 billion bushels in the same period last year;
4. My agricultural products: Week 25 of 2022, the country's major oil mills Soybean inventories and outstanding contracts both fell, while soybean meal inventories rose. Start-up status: In the 25th week (June 18 to June 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country was 1.812 million tons, and the startup rate was 62.98%. Among them, soybean stocks were 5.612 million tons, a decrease of 306,100 tons or 5.17% from last week, and a decrease of 494,300 tons or 8.09% from last year. Soybean meal stocks were 1.1175 million tons, an increase of 30,600 tons or 2.91% from last week. %, a decrease of 49,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 4.2%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Soybean meal rebounded slightly unilaterally, but fundamentally speaking, the oil plant's ship buying transactions were average, and there were too many supply-side changes in the origin business. Brazil's discount continued to fall, and the driving force supporting the rebound was still relatively small. Limited, it is recommended to hold long positions with light positions in the early stage and wait for the area report results;
2. Arbitrage: 09 soybean meal price difference is recommended to continue to be backed by the 500 line intervention to narrow, and the general direction of the operating range is between 400-500;
3. Options: Although the recent unilateral pullback has exceeded expectations and caused losses to the strategy, the overall loss of the bearish bull market spread is supported. It is recommended to continue to hold and wait for the weather and area to provide high points. Buy M2209-P-4200 and sell M2209-P- at the same time. 4100 bearish bull market spread to hold, buy RM2209-P-3800 and sell RM2209-P-3650 bearish bull market spread to hold (views are for reference only and not used as a basis for buying and selling)
Oils sector
[External disk influence]
Cbot The main price of edamame oil It rose 1.6% to 65.85 cents/pound; the main price of BMD crude palm oil fell 0.9% overnight to 4876 ringgit .
[Important information]
1. Weekly oil and fat stocks ( Bangcheng ): soybean oil stocks are 888,800 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons month-on-month; palm oil stocks are 193,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 22,000 tons; vegetable oil stocks are 221,400 tons, A month-on-month increase of 12,200 tons.
2.SPPOMA: From June 1 to 25, 2022, Malaysia palm oil yield increased by 18.29%, the oil yield decreased by 0.18%, and the output increased by 17.19%.
3. Market news: Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revealed that it will conduct road tests on vehicles with biodiesel fuel mixed with 40% palm oil (B40) in July 2022. Road testing will take at least five months. However, this news has not yet been confirmed by official channels.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Due to the pressure of expanding warehouses, the upstream planting profits of oil palm industry are close to losses. After a price correction of 500 US dollars, supported by costs, Indonesian palm oil fob prices are at 1,000 US dollars in the short term. Clearly supported. After the price difference between soybean and palm oil expands, domestic vegetable oil consumption, represented by palm oil, will recover in the third quarter, and domestic inventory accumulation will still be limited in the future. US stocks and crude oil and other macro backgrounds have stabilized and risen, and oil and fat continue to fall sharply in the short term, with insufficient momentum. However, after stabilizing, the price is expected to rebound and bottom out. Short-term investors can leave the market partially and wait for the correction to enter the long position again. Terminal companies recommend gradually completing price after the recent market correction.
2. Arbitrage: y91 can continue to be held, with a target of around 300.
3. Options: Pay attention to the second price point opportunity of oil and fat, that is, the company has been willing to point the price in the near future, but after the short-term rebound, the market is unstable and may have a correction. By adding options strategies, the point price profit can be increased. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
Corn/Corn Starch
[Important Information]
1. The growth rate of excellent corn in the United States is 67%, the market expectation is 69%, it was 70% the previous week, and 64% in the same period last year. .The U.S. corn silking rate is 4%, compared with 4% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 4%. The growth rate of U.S. spring wheat is 59%, and the market estimate is 60%, compared with 20% in the same period last year. The heading rate of spring wheat in the United States is 8%, compared with 45% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 34%. The growth rate of U.S. winter wheat is 30%, compared with 30% the previous week and 48% in the same period last year. The U.S. winter wheat harvest rate was 41%, market estimates were 40%, compared with 25% the previous week, 31% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 35%.
2. EU Crop Monitoring Department: Russia’s cereal corn production is expected to be 16.7 million tons in 2022, an increase of 8% over 2021. Russia's barley production in 2022 is expected to be 19.7 million tons, an increase of 7% over 2021. Russia's wheat production in 2022 is expected to be 88.8 million tons, an increase of 16% from 2021.
3. Data from the United States Department of Agriculture show that in the week ending June 23, 2022, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,246,014 tons, which was revised to 1,192,151 tons the previous week, and the initial value was 1,184,268 tons. In the week of June 24, 2021, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,045,179 tons. So far this crop year, U.S. corn export inspections have totaled 47,416,406 tons, compared with 57,040,207 tons during the same period last year. The weekly export inspection report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that as of the week of June 23, 2022, the U.S. corn export inspection volume to China (mainland region) was 208,190 tons. In the previous week, the inspection volume of corn exports from the United States to mainland China was 338,641 tons. The amount of U.S. corn export inspections to China that week accounted for 16.71% of the total export inspections that week, compared with 28.59% last week.
4. Data from the United States Department of Agriculture show that in the week ending June 23, 2022, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 352,404 tons, which was revised to 348,309 tons the previous week, and the initial value was 331,328 tons. In the week of June 24, 2021, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 291,043 tons. So far this crop year, U.S. wheat export inspections have totaled 1,339,338 tons, compared with 1,540,185 tons during the same period last year.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The rainfall in the Midwestern United States is better than expected. The quarterly area report may increase the planting area forecast, and there is still adjustment pressure in the short term. Domestic demand for deep processing continues to increase, and the motivation for price increases for deep processing has increased. Feed companies are not willing to purchase. Spot stocks are strong in the north and weak in the south. It still takes time to digest inventory. The external market is weak, and the domestic market is expected to be weak and volatile. Waiting for the surplus grain to be gradually digested, futures spot prices will gradually turn around, so we will wait and see for the time being.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2740 and sell c2209-C-2900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
pigs
[Market information]
1. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs continued to rise this morning. Among them, Northeast China is 18.8-19.2 yuan/kg, up 0.6 yuan/kg from yesterday; North China is 18.8-19.8 yuan/kg, up 0.6-0.8 yuan/kg from yesterday; East China is 19-19.6 yuan/kg, up 0.8 yuan from yesterday. /kg; South China 17.6-20 yuan/kg, up 0.4-0.6 yuan/kg from yesterday; Southwest 17.2-18.2 yuan/kg, up 0.8-1 yuan/kg from yesterday;
2. Piglet and sow prices: as of June 23 On the same week, the price of 15 kilogram piglets was 625 yuan/head, down 8 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows was 1,798 yuan, down 16 yuan from last week;
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : Yesterday's "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" " was 114.65, an increase of 0.36 points, and the wholesale price index of "vegetable basket" products was 114.27, an increase of 0.40 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 22.40 yuan/kg, up 3.0%; beef 77.57 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; mutton 66.40 yuan/kg, down 0.2%; eggs 9.78 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; white strip chicken 18.25 yuan/kg, down 1.0%;
4. Purchase and storage situation: On Friday, the social library planned to purchase and store 40,000 tons, with a starting price of 25,330 yuan/ton, and 0 transactions in the end.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: Domestic spot prices are rising sharply and obviously ahead of schedule. Short-term pressure may overdraw the market's rising potential to a certain extent. It is not recommended to chase higher. It is recommended to wait and see with short positions in the near future;
2. Arbitrage: wait and see (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The price of Shandong feather chicken is expected to stabilize at 4.65 yuan/jin tonight, with some transactions increasing secretly. ( Zhuochuang Information )
2. White-feather broiler chicks: Tomorrow, the price of chicken chicks from Shandong Dachang will stabilize at 2.1 yuan/feather. (Zhuochuang Information)
3. Split products: On June 27, the price of frozen breasts in Northeast and North China was stable, with frozen breasts quoted at 10.5-10.8 yuan/kg.
4. Zhuochuang Information: In the week of June 23, the total number of hatchlings of the 25 incubated companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information was 47.143 million birds, a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: In the week of June 23, the average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises was 53.59%, a month-on-month increase of 1.24 percentage points; the average frozen product storage capacity rate was 66.00%, a month-on-month increase of 3.06 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: The total number of white-feathered broiler chickens sold in May 2022 was 390 million, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. From January to May 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 1.857 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%.
7. White Feather Broiler Association: Association sampling data shows that as of the week of June 19, 2022, there were 31.7268 million sets of white feather parent breeder chickens, -0.5% year-on-year, which was the same as at the beginning of the year. Among them, there are 12.4795 million sets of replacement parent breeder chickens, -13.8% year-on-year, and -8.0% compared to the beginning of the year. There are 19.2473 million sets of active parent breeder chickens, +10.6% year-on-year, and +6.0% compared to the beginning of the year.
8. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) show that international poultry meat prices surged in May, with a month-on-month increase of 5.5%. Since 2022, international poultry meat prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the month-on-month increases from March to May being 5.6%, 3.8%, and 5.5% respectively. FAO said that international poultry meat prices pushed the international meat price index to 122.0 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, a record high.
9. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in May this year, my country imported 594,000 tons of meat (including offal, the same below), with an import value of 16.31 billion yuan. Compared with April, it only increased by 2,000 tons, and compared with March Imports were flat.
[Market Outlook]
Affected by the high temperature, most farmers still have a strong mentality of avoiding the "dog days of summer " and are cautious about restocking the breeding stock. It is expected that the price of chicks will continue to fall. On the consumer side, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the positive effects of the increase in exports of chicken products and the decrease in imports, the price of chicken products has risen significantly in the early stage. As college holidays gradually enter the future, the group meal channel is expected to be suppressed. It is expected that chicken prices will fall slightly after rising to a high level in the short term. Looking forward, the slaughter volume of raw chickens is expected to gradually recover. However, judging from the replenishment situation of chickens from April to May, the overall slaughter volume of raw chickens is still small, and is supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices. Prices The center has increased, and the overall price of raw chicken is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the second half of the year. With the arrival of the Q3 peak season, the price of raw chicken is expected to exceed the price high in the second quarter.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot price: Yesterday, the mainstream price across the country was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 4.08 yuan/jin, down 0.09 from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales area was 4.31 yuan/jin, which was 4.31 yuan/jin. The price fell by 0.18 in one trading day. Today, the national mainstream prices are stable, and the Beijing market prices are stable. The mainstream wholesale prices of Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream prices are 180 yuan/44 pounds, which is more stable than yesterday. As of 7 o'clock in the morning, a total of 5 cars have arrived on the Great Ocean Road, and the arrival is normal. , the goods are generally sold, and the mainstream wholesale price is 170-180 yuan/44 pounds, which is basically the same as yesterday’s price. Today, the price of eggs in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang is stable; the price in Shandong remains stable, the price in Henan is stable, the price in Shanxi, Hebei is stable, the price in Hubei is stable, the price in Jiangsu and Anhui is weak and stable, and the price of local eggs is high and low. The price continues to fluctuate and consolidate weakly, and the goods are generally sold.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in May 2022 was 1.178 billion, an increase of 0.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, which was lower than expected. In May, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 40.28 million birds, an increase of 3% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country’s main production areas in the week of June 24 was 15.76 million, a 6.4% decrease from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring statistics on the age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of June 23 was 502 days, which was the same as the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of June 23 were 7,382 tons, an increase of 3.9% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of June 23, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the circulation eased inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.43 days, an increase of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.98 days. , a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was mainly stable. The average price of Tao chicken in the main production areas was 5.95 yuan/jin, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of live stocks in May was still relatively low. The stock continued to recover but at a slow pace, and the supply of eggs was acceptable. On the demand side, egg prices should not be weak as we approach the end of the rainy season. However, egg prices fell over the weekend, even falling below 4 yuan/jin in some areas. This shows that market consumption is indeed poor. Recently, commodities have fallen overall, feed costs have also declined, and the cost support range has been lowered overall. In terms of futures, judging from the current situation, the inventory in September is still expected to be low and consumer prices should be relatively strong during the peak season. However, the commodity market has generally fallen recently, market transaction feed prices have weakened due to the logic of cost reduction, and the center of gravity of egg prices has shifted downward. It is recommended to wait and see first.
2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. A survey of 12 analysts released by S&P Global Commodity Insights on Thursday showed that sugar production in the first half of June in the main producing areas of central and southern Brazil It is expected to be 2.4 million tons, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year. Analysts surveyed estimated the sugar cane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil to be between 39.4 million and 45 million tons. The estimated average value is 42.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. In the first half of June, the weather in central and southern Brazil was favorable for sugarcane crushing, and less than one crushing day was lost due to rainfall. As of June 16, approximately 250-255 sugar mills were active. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar extraction is expected to be 44.6%, down from 46.2% in the same period last year. Brazilian crushers are expected to take advantage of high ethanol prices in the early stages of the harvest, but the longer-term outlook is for crushers to produce more sugar in the second half of the season.
2. Brazil's Copersucar, the world's largest sugar producer, expects ICE raw sugar futures prices to trade at 18-20 cents per pound in the next few months, and global supply and demand prospects will provide support. After four years of supply shortages, the sugar market is expected to return to a balance between supply and demand in 2022/23 (October-September). It also said that inventories have declined and sugar prices are expected to maintain a positive trend in the future. Adjustments to Brazil's fuel tax will not affect the competitiveness of ethanol compared to gasoline. Copersucar expects Brazilian sugar mills to allocate 41%-43% of their sugar cane to sugar extraction this year.
3. On the 28th, a few groups made changes and adjustments to the spot quotations, with mixed increases and decreases. Only Guangxi Hunan and Guangxi, the main sugar production area, lowered their prices by 20 yuan/ton; individual sugar processing factories raised their prices by 10-30 yuan/ton. Futures prices consolidated weakly, the market's wait-and-see mood was strong, the overall spot trading atmosphere fell, and transactions were average.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Raw sugar fluctuated slightly as concerns about inflation and global economic slowdown eased. In the short term, it will take some time to digest the domestic spot replenishment in the early stage of June, and the space for futures prices to fall back is limited, but it still needs time to oscillate and bottom out, waiting for the opportunity to stabilize and go long.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 91 official set.
3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
cotton - cotton yarn
[External disk impact]
The main overnight ICE US cotton contract fell to the limit , and the December contract fell 3.83 cents/pound (-3.91%) to 94.05 cents/pound.
[Important information]
1. The U.S. cotton production report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 27 showed that as of June 26, 2022, the U.S. cotton budding rate was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year and an increase of 3 percentage points over the past five years. The year-on-year average remains unchanged. The US cotton knot rate is 8%, one percentage point higher than the five-year average. The proportion of U.S. cotton growing conditions reaching good or above levels is only 37%, which is 3 percentage points lower than last week and 15 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
2. According to data from relevant Indian institutions, as of June 24, the cotton planting area in India was 3.183 million hectares, and the cotton planting progress lagged about 15% year-on-year, and the overall cotton planting rate was at a relatively slow level in recent years. Specifically, looking at the cotton planting situation in each cotton area, new cotton sowing in the northern cotton area has basically been completed and is about 1% behind year-on-year; the cotton planting progress in the central cotton area is significantly behind about 20% year-on-year; and the cotton planting progress in the southern cotton area is about 30% behind year-on-year. .
3. Yesterday, the spot price of lint in the domestic cotton spot market slowed down with the decline in futures prices, and most companies quoted prices 150-200 yuan/ton lower than yesterday. Recently, some Xinjiang machine-picked/hand-picked 21/31 grades (double 29/double 30) contain less than 2.5 impurities, and the basis of the CF209 contract corresponding to the inland warehouse is 600-1150 yuan/ton; Xinjiang warehouse Xinjiang machine-picked double 28/single 29 contains Miscellaneous 2.0-2.8 corresponds to a CF209 contract basis of 400-850 yuan/ton. The domestic cotton futures market fell across the board, and point-price transactions were completed in batches. Affected by the sharp decline in futures, cotton prices fell off a cliff, and quotations in various places in the spot market were chaotic. The purchase price of raw materials for spinning mills in some areas has also dropped significantly compared with before, but it has not brought about fundamental changes in the loss situation of spinning mills. It is understood that some Xinjiang warehouse grade 31/41 has a length of 28, a strength of 27-29, and a content of 2.5 or more impurities. The resource basis sales delivery price is 17,700-18,200 yuan/ton. Some of the lengths are 29, and the strength 29/30 contains impurities of less than 2.0 and is of high quality. The fixed price of cotton delivery is stable at 18,000-18,300 yuan/ton.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: The September contract of Zheng Cotton has currently fallen to around 17,000. On the one hand, this position has a greater supporting role from the planting cost side, and most of the downstream textile companies are profitable at this position on the spot side. The price is also supported. On the other hand, 17,000 is also the current low point recognized by most industry people. Therefore, there may be greater support above and below this position in the short term, and there is a high probability that it will fluctuate and repair near this position. However, the external market has fallen sharply recently. Last night, the external market fell to the limit. Zheng cotton prices continued to fall due to the impact of the external market. With the external market trend so weak, Zheng Cotton is likely to continue to follow the trend lower. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton.
2. Arbitrage: The losses of spot cotton yarn are gradually returning. You can consider going long on the disk profit of September contract cotton yarn.
3. Options: In the short term, it is recommended to consider selling CF209-C-17600 at a high level. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
peanuts
[Important information]
Domestic peanut prices ran smoothly last week. Affected by commodity sentiment, some traders have loosened their strong mentality and choose opportunities to ship goods without giving up profits. There has been significant rainfall in the Northeast and southern Henan, and the drought in the Henan production areas has eased. The overall growth in the Northeast production areas is good. The price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin. The price of ordinary rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/jin, and that of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/jin. The transaction price is based on quality. The price of ordinary rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/jin. The arrival volume of oil plants remains at a low level. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of some good goods is 9,100 yuan/ton. The Luhua factory only has Laiyang started up, and the rest of the factories have been All are shut down and the shutdown state will be maintained for the time being. Yihai Kerry has been completely stopped.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running steadily but weakly. The bulk oil market has fallen sharply, which has dragged down the market mentality. There has been little adjustment in manufacturers' quotations, but the actual shipping price has loosened. The wait-and-see mood in the downstream has become increasingly strong, with few new transactions. Oil mills basically focus on executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow.At present, the average domestic price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil pressed is 17,700 yuan/ton; market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 20,000 yuan/ton.
[Trading Strategy]
Unilateral: Affected by the rainfall in Henan, oil sentiment and macro decline, the disk price of peanuts fell more. However, it is a fact that production has been reduced significantly, so there may be opportunities to place long orders for peanuts in the near future. The 01 contract has a certain margin of safety between -600 and -800 basis.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling. Short orders entered near 0 in the early stage can temporarily stop profits and leave the market, and re-arrange when the correction exceeds -100.
period spot strategy: The basis is -800. After excluding the delivery cost, there is a profit margin of about 400 yuan per ton. You can choose to sell hedging or purchase spot and sell it to the market to lock in the basis profit. However, there is still room for growth in the peanut market. You can wait and choose a higher point to enter the market and stay on the sidelines for the time being.
Risk warning
The above content is for reference only
The risks of the futures market are unpredictable, please be cautious when trading.
