Source: Taiwan Strait Network
In the 2024 intra-party competition, Lai Qingde is temporarily ahead of Zheng Wencan
Wang Kunyi, Chairman of the Taiwan Society for International Strategy
Taiwan's well-known current affairs commentator Chen Songshan
Taiwan Strait Network January 24th ( Straits Herald reporter Wu Shenglinwen/Network Picture) Assigned by Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's deputy leader Lai Qingde will leave tomorrow for Central American "friendly countries" Honduras to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new President Castro, and there will be so-called "transit" arrangements on his way back and forth. U.S.
Why did Lai Qingde, who has always been "suppressed" by Tsai Ing-wen, get the opportunity to "visit" this time? And what is the plan of the DPP authorities behind its political trick of "transiting" to the United States? Wang Kunyi, chairman of the Taiwan Institute for International Strategic Studies, and Chen Songshan, a well-known current affairs commentator, conducted an in-depth analysis of this in an interview with a reporter from the Herald yesterday.
1 Lai Qingde achieves "curved overtaking" Zheng Wencan still has a chance in 2024
Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde are at odds, which is well known in Taipei political circles. In the 2024 "succession echelon" within the Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-wen supports her "first favorite", Taoyuan Mayor Zheng Wencan, while Su Tseng-chang, the head of the administrative agency of the Taiwan authorities, still has "great support for Taiwan leaders" "Position" is eyeing the enemy with eager eyes. It can be said that Lai Qingde has a wolf in front and a tiger in the back, and he is attacked from both sides.
Lai Ching-te's trip to Honduras as Tsai Ing-wen's "special envoy" is his first "foreign visit" since he became the deputy leader of Taiwan. Public opinion on the island believes that this trip will easily attract the attention of the island's media and will be a bonus for Lai Qingde in the intra-party competition in the 2024 election. Reporter
: Tsai Ing-wen has been suppressing Lai Qingde before and tried to prevent him from being exposed in front of the media. Why is he allowed to "visit" and "transit" to the United States as a "special envoy" this time? Has he begun to loosen his restrictions? Is this equivalent to acknowledging the fact that Lai Qingde is leading the competition for succession in 2024?
Wang Kunyi: Tsai Ing-wen will not go to Honduras this time. First, because of the impact of the epidemic, she felt that it was not meaningful to only arrange a "visit" to one "friendly country", so she designated Lai Qingde to go. Second, during the election campaign, President-elect Castro of Honduras stated that he would "break off diplomatic relations" with Taiwan and choose mainland China after being elected. Although she temporarily shelved this issue under the coercion and inducement of the United States, Hong Kong's decision to "break off diplomatic relations" with Taiwan The crisis has not been completely resolved. Tsai Ing-wen is worried that if she goes to Honduras to "observe the ceremony", if the two sides "cannot reach an agreement" on terms, she will be "severed from diplomatic relations" when she returns to Taiwan, which will really disgrace her face. Therefore, having Lai Qingde attend on his behalf can avoid this embarrassment and is also a test for Lai.
Of course, after the "four referendums" and Taichung "legislator" by-election in the second district of Taichung, Lai Qingde has increased his exposure, and the polls have boosted him greatly. On the other hand, Zheng Wencan has made many mistakes due to epidemic prevention issues. This is The situation is stronger than the people. The balance of the DPP's succession competition is gradually tilting in favor of Lai Qingde. Tsai Ing-wen has to face this reality. If she suppresses Lai Qingde again, it may be counterproductive.
Chen Songshan: Regarding the competition in 2024, it is true that Lai Qingde’s opinion polls have improved rapidly, but I think arranging his “foreign visit” this time should have little to do with it. Reporter
: The latest poll from the "Beautiful Island Electronic News" shows that Lai Qingde's support for the possible leader of Taiwan in 2024 is 30.1%, ranking first in Taiwan, while his party rival Zheng Wencan's support is only 30.1%. 4.3%. Do you think Zheng Wencan still has a chance in 2024?
Wang Kunyi: One observation point is whether Tsai Ing-wen will replace Su Zhenchang before May, and then Zheng Wencan will take over as the head of the administrative agency. If Tsai Ing-wen puts Zheng Wencan in the cabinet position when her second term expires two years later, Zheng Wencan will still have many opportunities to perform. Even though Zheng Wencan was lagging behind Lai Qingde in the polls, he was also working hard to save himself and desperately wooed "British" people. Among them, arranging the daughter of "British" leader Chen Mingwen to take over as the director of the Taoyuan Youth Bureau is an obvious example. If Zheng Wencan is unable to become a "Gakui" before May 20 this year, and if Taoyuan's "green land turns to blue sky" by the end of the year, he will completely lose his chance in 2024.
Chen Songshan: The political hatred between Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde is basically unsolvable. They can be said to be a pair of natural enemies, so Tsai Ing-wen will still support Zheng Wencan to take over. After all, there are still two years until 2024, and there will be many variables during this process. Especially if the DPP can retain the Taoyuan mayor's seat in the year-end election, Zheng Wencan still has a great chance.
2 Lai Ching-te took the lead in accepting the first "interview" and was wary of the escalation of "interaction" between US and Taiwan officials.
Many people believe that Lai Ching-te's trip to Honduras is not the focus of this "visit". Its key purpose is to "transit" to the United States, hoping to increase communication with the United States. "interactive". According to information released by Tsai Ing-wen's office, Lai Qingde will stay in Los Angeles for one night on his way out, stop one night in San Francisco on his way back on the 29th, and return to Taiwan on the evening of the 30th.
Reporter: Lai Qingde "passed through" the United States this time. How do you interpret it? What are your focuses?
Wang Kunyi: In order not to irritate mainland China too much, the US State Department's statement strongly emphasized that Lai Qingde's "transit" was a "private and unofficial trip". The US arrangement will not violate the "one-China policy", but the outside world will still pay attention. Lai Qingde will then What interactions do you have with the United States? For example, some U.S. congressmen took the opportunity to speculate, hoping that U.S. Vice President Harris, who was going to Honduras with him, would "meet" or shake hands with Lai Ching-te; there was also news that the chairman of the "American Institute in Taiwan (AIT)" Mo Jian will pick you up at the airport. However, the information released by Office Tsai said that Lai Qingde had no way to get off the plane at that time and would only have phone calls or video meetings with American politicians on the plane. This process depends on what level of people in the United States he can interact with.
Chen Songshan: I think that Lai Qingde's trip to Honduras and "transit" to the United States was the intention of the Biden administration, and Tsai Ing-wen passively accepted this arrangement. In other words, the most important thing for Lai Qingde's trip this time is to accept the "preliminary test" from the United States.
Taiwanese politicians know very well that the United States is their boss behind the scenes. Without the support of the United States, it will be very difficult to be elected as the leader of Taiwan. All blue and green politicians who want to run for leadership in Taiwan must accept an "interview" in the United States. Lai Qingde is now the first to arrive. After the Spring Festival, Zhu Lilun and Ke Wenzhe will also go to the United States for "interviews." In the future, Tsai Ing-wen will also arrange for Zheng Wencan to go to the United States.
Reporter: Regarding Lai Qingde's "transit" to the United States, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian recently responded by pointing out that the DPP authorities used the so-called "transit" of the United States to seek official contacts with the United States and Taiwan and seek opportunities to pursue "independence" manipulation. Mainland China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and China's Taiwan region, and urges the United States not to send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces. Do you think Lai Qingde's attempt to "transit" the United States will further aggravate tensions across the Taiwan Strait?
Chen Songshan: The Biden administration is now escalating its suppression and containment of mainland China, and the Democratic Progressive Party authorities on the island of Taiwan are also following the pace of the United States and still adhere to the keynote of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan" in governance. Against this background , the United States may intensify its use of the "Taiwan card" in the future. Although the United States is currently allowing Lai Ching-te to "transit" as usual, will it formally invite the head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department or Lai Ching-te to "visit the United States" in the next two years? If this is done, it will definitely bring greater unpredictable risks to the situation in the Taiwan Strait. I believe that mainland China will be highly vigilant and have countermeasures in place to manage risks.
3 Adjust cross-strait policies and propositions? Lai Qingde will follow the rhythm of the United States
Lai Qingde has repeatedly claimed to be a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker." Will such a dark green "Taiwan independence" political proposition pass the test in the US "interview"? After all, "Taiwan independence" means war. Although successive US governments have always played the "Taiwan independence" card, they have also emphasized that they do not support "Taiwan independence" because "Taiwan independence" means war, and the United States does not want to be dragged into "Taiwan independence". to the Taiwan Strait War.Reporter
: If the focus of Lai Qingde's trip is to accept an "interview" with the United States, will his cross-strait policy propositions be adjusted? Or will he still emphasize that he is a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker"?
Wang Kunyi: I think Lai Qingde will only increase some interactions with the United States this time and expand the channels of contact with the United States. It is unlikely that he will discuss cross-strait policy issues. After all, Tsai Ing-wen has not yet passed half of her second term, and she is not yet lame in power. Cross-strait policy is still within her scope of authority. Lai Qingde has not yet become the official candidate of the DPP in 2024, so he should stick to the rules and Avoid touching on cross-strait issues on such a sensitive occasion.
However, Lai Qingde is very clear that his intra-party competitor in 2024 is Zheng Wencan, and Zheng Wencan’s political spectrum is relatively less fiercely “anti-China”. Therefore, in order to gain more support from the people on the island and to reassure the United States, Lai Qingde will most likely adjust the original radical "Taiwan independence" line and move closer to the center. Generally speaking, he will say different things on different occasions and to different appeal objects. For example, in order to communicate with the mainland, he once proposed the slogan "Love China and Love Taiwan" when he was mayor of Tainan; as the head of the administrative agency, in response to the "legislators" questioning, he also called himself a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker"; and Recently, he advocated "achieving long-term cross-Strait peace through exchanges and cooperation," which is even considered a path to "unification." I believe that in order to strive for 2024, he will gradually move closer to the middle line in the future.
Chen Songshan: I personally believe that given Lai Qingde’s deep green “Taiwan independence” political foundation and the current relationship between the United States and mainland China, including the Democratic Progressive Party’s ruling axis of “resisting China and protecting Taiwan”, he will adjust cross-strait policy propositions in the future. The space is not very big. What's more, his visit to the United States this time is only a "preliminary test" and has not yet reached the point of discussing cross-strait policies. Therefore, even if he may mention that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait want peace rather than war, resolve discrimination rather than aggravate conflicts, etc., they are basically playing word games. Lai Ching-te's future cross-strait propositions must follow the rhythm of "fight without breaking up" between the United States and mainland China, and cater to the political atmosphere on the island.
