Today A-share The three major indexes collectively opened lower. The market fluctuated and weakened in early trading, and the decline narrowed before noon. In the afternoon, the major indexes weakened again. The Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 3,000 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell more than 3%. , the three major indexes collectively hit a new adjustment low.
Banxia Investment Li Bei issued an article in response to media reports, saying that at the end of last year, Banxia’s stock net position was around 0. She said that as a hedge fund that pursues absolute returns, this is not unusual. It is normal to take long positions when there is an opportunity and not to do so if there is no opportunity.
Li Bei believes that this year is more difficult for fund managers than in 2008. This difficulty is mainly reflected in two points:
1. First, the absolute level of interest rates is too low, and the United States is in an interest rate hike cycle. Although the domestic economy is in decline, it is very useful to long long-term government bonds in 2008 or 2018. The winning strategy has become unusable.
2. There is greater uncertainty this year. The development of wars and epidemics has brought a lot of uncertainty. This makes trend trading easy to fluctuate and retrace.
She said that as the war and epidemic have entered a stable period, the market uncertainty has become much smaller. Although the economy is under relatively great pressure, there will definitely not be a financial crisis in this round between China and the United States.
First of all, the current leverage level of US financial institutions is obviously lower than that in 2008, and their balance sheets are much healthier. China's shadow banking has shrunk significantly after several years of supervision, and the risk is not great.
In terms of China's real estate, Li Bei believes that there are unfavorable factors such as high residents' leverage levels, and there may be a slight contraction in the future. However, she also said that it should be noted that the average down payment ratio in China is as high as 50%, and the protection for banks is very sufficient, and mortgage loans will not have large-scale bad debts. The total amount of real estate development loans is not large. Excluding state-owned enterprises, the total amount is estimated to be less than 10 trillion, accounting for less than 5% of the bank's total assets, which will not cause too much harm to the bank.
Regarding the stock market, Li Bei believes that the stock index has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year, and the risks of economic and earnings decline have been priced in. The potential room for decline is obviously getting smaller and smaller. In her opinion, the risks in the stock market are obviously getting smaller and smaller, and the opportunities are obviously increasing.
This article comes from the financial world
