Qiu Kaiming, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center (Haiyan Think Tank). (File photo)
html From June 23 to 24, the third Tianfu Forum on Cross-Strait Relations with the theme of "Trends and Prospects of Cross-Strait Relations in the New Era" was held in Dujiangyan City. More than 60 well-known scholars from both sides of the Taiwan Strait focused on issues of common concern to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, conducted heated discussions and exchanges, and worked together to provide ideas and suggestions for promoting the integrated development of cross-Strait relations and enhancing the well-being of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait under the new situation. Qiu Kaiming, director of the Maritime Research Center (Haiyan Think Tank), delivered a keynote speech at the meeting on "The Blind Spots and Risks of the Taiwan Authorities' 'Far-Continent Relying on the United States' Route".According to the Haiyan Center’s WeChat public account “Haiyan Think Tank”, Qiu Kaiming said in his speech that since the Democratic Progressive Party came back to power for more than two years, it has been wishfully pursuing the confrontational line of “relying on the beauty of distant lands” and is even more useless in handling cross-strait relations. space, the pressure will inevitably increase, and it is also irresponsible to the Taiwanese people.
The full text of the speech is excerpted as follows:
1. The Taiwan authorities' policy line of "relying on the United States in distant lands" has basically taken shape
Since the Democratic Progressive Party came back to power in May 2016, it has reiterated the "four constants" (unchanged goodwill, unchanged commitments, and will not return to the old path of confrontation and will not yield under pressure), while de facto conducting political construction based on the concept of "one country on each side", claiming that "we must stick to our values, resist China's pressure, and get rid of over-reliance on China." Its cross-strait policies have become increasingly rigid and stubborn in nature. Since the Kuomintang and other political forces on the island lack effective constraints on the Democratic Progressive Party authorities, they are promoting "de-Sinicization" at a fast pace. Their cross-strait policy line has a distinctive feature of "relying on the United States from the far mainland" and a prominent color of "resistance to the mainland and seeking independence."
The Democratic Progressive Party government’s mainland policy will further “rely on the United States from far away from the mainland”, which will inevitably increase the confrontation with the mainland. The opposition and tension caused by this confrontation are in line with the political needs of the Taiwan authorities to promote "Taiwan independence" on the island, and will help them increase their leverage and space to resist the unification offensive. Specifically reflected in:
blocking reduces the influence of mainland China. In order to prevent the mainland's growing influence from continuing to exert influence on Taiwan, especially in response to the mainland's more significant "magnetic attraction" effect after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities tried to reverse the direction of Taiwan's economic and social connections and open up the gap with the mainland. The distance has cooled cross-strait relations.
internally liquidates the need for "reform". The social and political reforms that the Democratic Progressive Party authorities want to carry out include further historical and political liquidation and weakening the opposition Kuomintang to achieve their goal of sustainable governance. These "reforms" need to shape opposition and fear towards the mainland in order to rationalize it. policy line.
Seize the opportunity to get closer to the United States. The Democratic Progressive Party authorities know that in order to "pass" cross-strait relations with their vague proposition of "maintaining the status quo," they mainly rely on the blessing of the United States. The United States' high-profile acceptance of Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the United States before the election means that it has obtained the approval ticket of the United States. After taking office, the DPP focused on its work with the United States and established the "Global Taiwan Center (GTI)" in the United States to fully carry out work with politicians from all walks of life in the United States to cater to the United States' strategic needs of "using Taiwan to contain China."
Therefore, the DPP authorities are increasingly raising the profile and showing less scruples in creating cross-strait confrontation, including strictly scrutinizing mainland officials' visits to Taiwan, restricting cross-strait exchanges, prosecuting new party members, strengthening the deterrent effect, and making every effort to curb the "31 Measures" "It is not surprising that the influence and other actions are frequent.
2. Blind spots and contradictions in the policy line of the Taiwan authorities
The Democratic Progressive Party authorities implemented the line of "relying on the United States in the distant mainland" and essentially escalating confrontation with the mainland. They have a firm will and clear intentions, but they have not achieved the expected results. On the contrary, the DPP administration has encountered setbacks in its governance on the island. A poll conducted by China Times in May this year showed that 52% of the people believed that the economy was getting worse. Taiwan's "Beautiful Island Electronic News" showed that the economy has deteriorated as much as 80.6%. The public support for Tsai Ing-wen dropped to about 30% on the first anniversary of her coming to power, and the dissatisfaction rate exceeded 50%, which is lower than the public support for Ma Ying-jeou and Chen Shui-bian on the first anniversary of their coming to power (52% and 45% respectively). An in-depth analysis shows that the root cause of the DPP authorities' setbacks in governance lies in pursuing a policy line of confrontation with the mainland, which contains insurmountable blind spots and contradictions.
The contradiction between the Democratic Progressive Party authorities and the mainland is rising and the serious asymmetry of cross-strait resources and power. The two sides of the Taiwan Strait have experienced important changes in the past 30 years. In addition to the evolution of cross-strait policy propositions and positions, the balance of power behind the policies and propositions of the DPP authorities has also undergone important changes. In the process of adhering to the idea of reunification, the mainland has actively promoted its own development and step by step strengthened its strength support to serve the goal of national reunification. The Democratic Progressive Party authorities, on the premise of resisting the mainland's unification policy, consolidated their internal ideology, and while vigorously promoting "de-Sinicization", they found that their ability to achieve their goals was greatly weakened, and they were increasingly unable to achieve their goals. From 1992 to 2017, the economic strength of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait increased from only twice that of Taiwan to 22 times last year, and its foreign exchange scale was seven times that of Taiwan. The influence and constraints of mainland factors on Taiwan's overall development have increased significantly, and it has also become a nightmare for "Taiwan independence" forces.
The gap between the institutional confidence shown by mainland China's development and the decline of Taiwan authorities' governance is prominent. The Taiwan authorities have always been proud of their "economic miracle" while delaying the reunification of the motherland and the mainland, believing that the imported Western institutional structure will eventually become an important barrier separating Taiwan and the mainland. However, with the deepening of reform and opening up in the mainland, especially the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, it has made every effort to fight corruption, revitalize the political and military forces, and have a new look. It has proposed the grand goal of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and has demonstrated unprecedented confidence in its institutional advantages and institutional confidence. , causing Taiwanese society and people to continue to pay attention to and favor the mainland. However, what the DPP authorities presented to the Taiwanese people was a farce of internal strife that was absurd and rigid. While pursuing the Kuomintang and satisfying the selfish interests of one party, the Taiwan authorities fell into a dilemma in terms of public policy. The amendments to the "one case, one holiday" bill are not flattering on both sides; the ideological-led energy policy has led to a power shortage crisis, which has been widely criticized by the business community; the improvement of the investment environment has not been implemented, and the growth of foreign investment has been slow. This year's "Global Economic Competitiveness Ranking" in Lausanne, Switzerland, saw Taiwan fall to 17th place, while China improved 5 places to 13th place, causing shock in Taiwan. Insightful people in Taiwan bluntly said that Taiwan has been engaged in internal strife in recent years and "is declining in all aspects." The results are sad but not surprising.
The contradiction between the mainland's efforts to attract Taiwanese people to participate in integrated development and the DPP authorities' insistence on "Taiwan independence" and confinement on the island has become highlighted. General Secretary Xi Jinping solemnly promised at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that “the people’s yearning for a better life is our goal.” The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further identified the gap between “the people’s growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development.” "Contradiction" has been established as the main contradiction in current society. This people-centered development philosophy is also fully reflected in the spirit of Taiwan policy. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that we should gradually provide Taiwan compatriots with the same treatment as mainland compatriots in studying, starting a business, employment, and living in the mainland, so as to enhance the well-being of Taiwan compatriots. In February this year, the "31" policy measures were released, which aroused positive responses from Taiwan compatriots. However, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities were ignorant of the situation and introduced so-called restrictive measures to put pressure on the Taiwanese people, especially obstructing Taiwanese youths from landing. They expressed "concern" over the large increase in applications from Taiwanese students to study in the mainland, which triggered a backlash from public opinion. The "maintenance of the status quo" advertised by the Taiwan authorities is nothing more than an excuse to paralyze the self-paralysis of the island. The result can only be a step-by-step marginalization.
The contradiction between the Taiwan authorities’ implementation of the “far mainland” regional development route and the mainland’s continued expansion of regional influence. Tsai Ing-wen abandoned the cross-strait policy during Ma Ying-jeou's administration and attempted to maintain and expand its "international space" without recognizing the "1992 Consensus." It strives to accelerate the "detachment" from China by promoting the "New Southbound Policy" and realize the governance logic of getting rid of the so-called dependence on the mainland. To this end, measures have been taken to promote investment and trade relations with ASEAN countries, strengthen ties with ASEAN countries in education, culture, tourism and labor, expand visa convenience, and establish the "Taiwan Asia Exchange Foundation" to establish a regular exchange mechanism.However, contrary to the intentions of the Taiwan authorities, not only is the growth of investment and trade volume between Taiwan and ASEAN limited, but also relevant countries generally adopt a "political and economic separation" approach to handle relations with Taiwan. Taiwan's intention to use economic and trade cooperation to promote substantive relations has been frustrated. In fact, relations between mainland China and ASEAN countries have developed more rapidly, and political mutual trust has been fully enhanced. The two sides signed a joint statement on production capacity cooperation, and construction of some large-scale projects has begun. By the end of 2015, the cumulative mutual investment between China and ASEAN exceeded US$150 billion. In 2016, the trade volume between China and ASEAN was US$455.4 billion, accounting for 48% of the total trade between China and countries along the “Belt and Road”. Mainland China's influence in Southeast Asia continues to expand, dwarfing the Taiwan authorities' efforts to expand space in Southeast Asia.
The above analysis fully demonstrates that the DPP authorities want to avoid the fundamental nature of cross-Strait relations and pursue confrontation with the mainland and the "far away from China" route. However, the existence of mainland factors has always been with them. It is difficult for Taiwan to try to shield the influence of mainland power. More difficult. This not only shows that the power of the mainland has grown significantly, but also that the situation of one China has become more consolidated.
3. The main risks of the Taiwan authorities' confrontational line of "leaving the mainland and relying on the United States"
Since the Democratic Progressive Party came back to power, it has emphasized that "Taiwan-US partnership is the highest priority goal" and has made comprehensive adjustments accordingly, with the United States following the lead in everything. This includes appointing "people who know the United States" to take charge of relevant departments, actively cooperate with the United States' strategic arrangements for Asia, and respond to the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" fastest among the United States' Asian "partners". Create a "major breakthrough" in the phone call with Trump and seek to fundamentally improve Taiwan-US relations. On the economic front, it actively caters to Trump's proposal to promote "manufacturing reshoring" and supports island companies to invest in the United States. Militarily, they have continuously expressed their determination to purchase weapons and their willingness to deepen military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, and strengthen defense cooperation and technology transfer. Taiwan's foreign exchange policy, which relies entirely on the United States, poses many risks to Taiwanese society and the international level. The first is from the perspective of Taiwan.
The essence of "relying on foreigners and self-respect" has been lost, and the basic foundation of political mutual trust with the mainland has been lost. A spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council once described some of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities' moves to move closer to the United States as "taking advantage of foreign countries to gain self-respect." Taiwan's "Mainland Affairs Council" immediately responded with opposition. The series of measures taken by the Taiwan authorities over the past two years have undoubtedly confirmed the words of the spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. The cross-strait policy propositions previously advertised by the Tsai administration have been undermined by its actions in following the United States. The long-term interests of the Chinese nation and the fundamental interests of Taiwan compatriots do not seem to be as important and urgent as the political needs of the United States. The Tsai administration has also lost its basic will to ease relations with the mainland. Intensifying antagonism and confrontation will leave no room for handling cross-strait relations, and the pressure will inevitably increase.
abuses the Taiwanese people's wandering mentality towards the rise of the mainland and deviates from the basic needs of Taiwanese public opinion. Over the years, the Taiwanese people have had difficulty adapting to the rapid rise of the mainland, and have found it difficult to accept being at a disadvantage in the cross-strait competition for comprehensive strength development. Therefore, they have an anxious and ambivalent attitude towards the development of the mainland, hoping to catch up with the mainland's economy. The express train of social development, but unwilling to be "inhibited" by politics. Therefore, relying on the United States for economic security has become a stopgap measure for some Taiwanese people. They hope that there will be appropriate American factors in cross-strait relations to maintain a certain degree of stability for Taiwan. Chips and space. Mainstream public opinion in Taiwan does not want to antagonize the mainland, let alone become a "pawn" for the United States to contain the mainland, or even risk conflict with the mainland. This approach of the DPP authorities has essentially overconsumed the psychological security needs of the Taiwanese people, increased the security burden on the Taiwanese people, and has not been accepted by Taiwanese society.
intensifies the risk of conflict between Taiwan’s political confrontation and the dilemma of insufficient resources. From the perspective of Taiwan's economic structure, the typical characteristics of the export-oriented economy determine that its economy must establish extensive ties with the region. Over the years, an inseparable industrial division of labor system has been formed between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. This system has also become the basis for Taiwan's economic operation and development. In particular, it is an important source of the trade surplus of more than 100 billion US dollars that maintains Taiwan's trade balance every year. The existence of the mainland market can completely become a reservoir and stabilizer for Taiwan's economy.The oppositional policies of the DPP authorities directly caused the loosening and weakening of cross-strait economic ties. Due to the sharp decrease in mainland tourists visiting Taiwan, the tourism industry has become the hardest hit area and its prospects are bleak. Even if the DPP authorities try to attract Southeast Asian tourists, they are unable to make up for the losses due to insufficient spending power. In terms of agriculture, due to the lack of the mainland market, there is insufficient buying momentum and serious price declines. As a result, the price of Taiwan's fruit market collapsed this year, and fruit farmers complained. And getting closer to the United States has not increased Taiwan's economic benefits at all. It has to pay a higher price to pay for the so-called "security needs", and there is no room for bargaining with the United States.
On the other hand, analyzing the needs of the United States as the United States-Taiwan relations get closer can also provide a more in-depth analysis of Taiwan's external policy risks.
Getting closer to Taiwan is compensation for the "failure" of the United States' self-proclaimed China policy. In recent years, especially after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, mainland China has become more confident in proposing a "two-step" approach to achieve the great goal of national rejuvenation. In particular, China's economy has gradually closed the gap with the United States on the background of sustained growth, which has aroused The discussion aroused the anxiety and reflection of the U.S. strategic community. The conclusion of the discussion was that the policy of engagement with China pursued by the United States for many years has not achieved the expected goals. In the process of this policy review, the U.S. strategic community has placed a considerable part of its unfinished hopes on As for Taiwan, the existence of Taiwan as a "model democracy" makes the United States believe that it is not a problem with U.S. values and policies. After re-examination, the United States not only feels that Taiwan is "closer" in terms of personal connections, but also "closer" in politics. It has indeed gained significant psychological compensation.
Winning over Taiwan is the best auxiliary tool for the United States to exert trade pressure on mainland China. The U.S. containment strategy against China has multiple levels. First, it directly engages in trade frictions with China, puts strategic pressure on China, and focuses on "Made in China 2025", which delays China's technological catch-up and rise; second, it involves China's peripheral relations and original Amid security concerns, we continue to set up obstacles, widen gaps, create trouble, and distract mainland China from its development efforts. In this regard, "Taiwan independence" is an option with more room for maneuver and more coordination than "Hong Kong independence", "Xinjiang independence" and "Tibet independence". The "Taiwan independence" forces have a macro-containing effect on the development strategy of mainland China, and Taiwan's leaders are highly willing to cooperate. This is a card used by US hardliners to contain the development of mainland China. Because this is to suit its own interests, the DPP's "Taiwan independence" line needs to find support, and the "favor" of the United States is a coveted one.
The confrontational line pursued by the Democratic Progressive Party authorities towards the mainland does not have broad social foundation and support within Taiwanese society. Instead, it is a form of hijacking and abuse of Taiwan's public opinion, which has no positive effect on improving its constantly weakening political support. At the same time, from the perspective of the United States, its use of Taiwan is more instrumental and strategic, and does not mean the deepening of the "ally" relationship between Taiwan and the United States. What the United States values is Taiwan's value against the mainland, and this cannot Increase its resources and capital against the mainland.
4. Wishful thinking of "leaving the mainland and relying on the United States" is doomed to have no future
"Leaving the mainland and relying on the United States" cannot improve the sluggish governance situation of the Taiwan authorities. Since the beginning of this year, the Taiwan authorities have been emboldened and taken frequent actions. With the support of the United States and other "allies", they have "attacked" the international community and resisted "China pressure." Their efforts to squeeze into the World Health Assembly have encountered setbacks. On the contrary, they have lost several "diplomatic countries" "; Lai Qingde claimed that he was a "social worker advocating Taiwan independence" and tried his best to vent and exaggerate his dissatisfaction with the mainland, but Taiwanese public opinion was unmoved. Satisfaction with Tsai Ing-wen’s administration has dropped to a new low since May 2016.
The Taiwanese authorities wishfully ignore and misjudge the development process and prospects of the mainland. Historically, mainland China's institutional advantages and institutional confidence have been seriously underestimated. The Taiwan authorities completely ignore the reason why China has surpassed Taiwan and achieved its rejuvenation goal for 30 consecutive years. It is completely an ostrich mentality of burying its head in the sand, and it is a completely blind and deafening escape. Placing all hopes on the favor of the United States is even more wishful thinking and extremely irresponsible to the Taiwanese people.
The Taiwan authorities will eventually have to return cross-strait relations to the right track. Taiwan always hopes to serve as a bargaining chip for the United States, but Taiwan always depends on the face of the United States. The Democratic Progressive Party authorities are confronting the mainland and "turning away from China and embracing the United States." This has resulted in ineffective governance and sluggish public opinion polls. People on the island generally have little confidence in the DPP authorities' ability to respond to mainland development and measures to benefit Taiwan, and young people are more willing to choose to develop on the mainland. Insightful people on the island believe that "many of the problems faced by the Tsai administration cannot be solved simply by strengthening Taiwan-US relations or promoting the 'New Southbound Policy.'" "The Tsai administration needs a peaceful and stable cross-strait relationship to cope with complex Changing internal environmental problems" and "from a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective, Taiwan cannot be separated from the influence of mainland China." This will become the consensus of more and more knowledgeable people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. (Author: Qiu Kaiming, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center)
