Among the 25 major cities, rebar prices in 11 cities including Shanghai, Jinan, Beijing, and Wuhan increased by 10-20 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and strong trend**.

▼November 3

On November 2, the domestic steel market fluctuated, with mixed prices. Among the 25 major cities, the price of rebar in 11 cities including Shanghai, Jinan, Beijing and Wuhan increased by 10-20 yuan/ton, showing a strong trend; 11 cities including Hangzhou, Jinan, Shenyang and Chongqing saw hot prices. The price of roll fell by 10-40 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and weak trend.

html On the 12th, the performance of black futures was divided. Rebar futures were stronger than hot coil futures, and "double focus" futures were stronger than steel futures. The main thread contract in the last issue today reduced its position and closed the positive line, and MA5 recovered again. On the daily chart, the red column of the MACD indicator turns green, the DIEF and DEA lines intersect and move downwards, the third line of the RSI indicator is near 50, the thread is running below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, the overall technical indicator of is at the long-short boundary, and the rebound trend is not yet establish.

html On the 12th, a domestic construction steel manufacturer raised its ex-factory price, and most steel mills maintained stability and waited.

▼ Steel spot market

Construction steel: On November 2, the average price of HRB400 (20mm) rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 4,071 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. At present, the short-term market inventory continues to decline, and the overall sales pressure is not strong. It is expected that domestic construction steel may continue to operate in a narrow range tomorrow.

hot-rolled coils: On November 2, the price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 markets across the country was reported at 4,137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and merchants' quotations have declined slightly. At present, the market inventory is relatively low, but it is difficult to significantly release demand. It is expected that the hot-rolled market price will fluctuate tomorrow.

Cold-rolled coils: On November 2, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4,743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous transaction price. The overall market demand performance today is average, merchants are not shipping much, and most downstream companies are mainly purchasing on demand. It is expected that the cold rolling price will consolidate tomorrow.

Medium and thick plates: On November 2, the average price of medium and thick plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The futures market fluctuated today, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and merchant quotes were stable but weak. At present, the market demand is relatively average, but there are not many inventory resources. The mentality of merchants is relatively stable, and the market price fluctuations are not large. It is expected that the market price of medium and heavy plate will fluctuate tomorrow.

▼ Raw material spot market

Imported ore: On November 2, Jingtang Port 61.5% Australian fine ore was quoted at 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Due to the continued sluggish market sentiment in the early stage, production restrictions at Tangshan steel mills and port transportation restrictions have been eased this week. The sentiments of steel mills and traders have improved. Steel mills and traders have all replenished their stocks. The market is temporarily stable and rising. The probability of shocks in the later period is still high.

Coke: html On the 22nd, the domestic coke spot market operated weakly. In some areas, the price dropped by about 100 yuan, and the market transactions were average. In the coke market in Shanxi, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is currently quoted at 1,750-1,800 yuan/ton; in Handan, Hebei, the secondary metallurgical coke is priced at 1,610 yuan/ton including tax; in the coke market in East China, the current mainstream quoted price for secondary metallurgical coke is 1,650-1,700 yuan/ton. , all are ex-factory prices including tax. The overall inventory of steel mills remains high, and the domestic coke market is likely to continue to be weak in the short term.

Scrap steel: htmlThe scrap steel market was temporarily stable on the 22nd, with average transactions. The current price of heavy waste in Jiangsu is maintained at 1990-2050 yuan/ton; the price of heavy waste in Shandong is 1940-2050 yuan/ton. The transaction price of heavy waste in the Fujian market including tax is 1,900-1,930 yuan/ton. The price of heavy waste including tax in Hubei is basically 1,690-1,750 yuan/ton. Heavy waste in Shanxi includes tax of 1860-1930 yuan/ton. The price of heavy waste including tax in Hebei is 2120-2350 yuan/ton. The above are all factory prices including tax.

▼Steel Market Forecast

Entering November, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas have once again intensively issued emergency plans for heavy pollution weather, and steel and other industrial enterprises have implemented peak-shifting production.

Hebei Province

Recently, Hebei Province issued the "Revised Guiding Opinions on the Hebei Province Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Plan". During the activation of the heavy pollution weather emergency plan, the emission reduction ratios at the yellow, orange and red warning levels will reach 10%, 20% and 20% respectively. More than 30%. In key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan , steel production capacity must be limited to 50% on a city-by-city basis, calculated based on blast furnace production capacity, and verified using the actual electricity consumption of the enterprise. Coking enterprises across the province must limit production by more than 30%. Except for major livelihood projects, all types of construction operations have basically stopped in urban built-up areas.

From November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018, Tangshan Iron and Steel Enterprises limited blast furnace ironmaking capacity by 50% in principle, and the blast furnace ironmaking capacity limit task was 18.21 million tons.

The Handan Municipal Government decided to issue an orange alert at 0:00 on November 1, 2017 and initiate a Level II emergency response. Handan Iron and Steel Group will shut down a 2,000 cubic meter blast furnace, a 435 sintering machine, and another 2,000 cubic meter blast furnace furnace; all coking will extend the coke extraction time to more than 72 hours. Stop all house construction and earth and stone work.

Tianjin

From November 15, 2017 to March 31, 2018, Jinxi Steel and Jinxi Special Steel will limit the ironmaking capacity to 670,800 tons. According to our website, among the 17 blast furnaces in Tianjin, in addition to the 3 blast furnaces that have not been produced before, it is expected that 6 blast furnaces will cease production after November 1.

Shandong Province

From November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018, Linyi City Iron and Steel Enterprises have staggered peak production and production suspension ratio requirements, with a limit of 50% production suspension, based on blast furnace and submerged arc furnace production lines.

Shanxi Province

The Shanxi Provincial dispatch order requires cities to activate no lower than orange level warnings from November 4 to November 7, and to tighten the emergency level at any time based on the pollution situation and adopt more stringent emergency emission reduction measures.

Taiyuan City will implement off-peak production for industrial enterprises from November. The off-peak production involves 196 companies in seven major industries including steel, coking, and thermal power, and will last until March 31 next year.

Overall, Tangshan, Handan, Tianjin, Linyi and Shanxi Province have recently launched emergency plans for heavy pollution weather again, indicating that steel mills will further intensify environmental protection and production restrictions in November. At the same time, the downstream steel demand performance this week was average due to seasonal and "stop orders". According to our website's monitoring of mainstream building materials traders, the average daily trading volume in September was slightly better than that in August. The average daily trading volume in October did not change much and is expected to decline slightly in November.

Looking at the fundamentals of supply and demand alone, the pressure on the steel market is not great, and the balanced pattern has not yet been broken. The current fluctuations in steel prices are mainly based on psychological expectations: on the one hand, downstream companies are still resistant to high prices, merchants are not very enthusiastic about purchasing for winter storage, and steel mills lack a basis for price increases. On the other hand, rebar prices for mainstream building materials steel mills such as Shagang remained stable in early November, and the ex-factory price continued to be inverted with the market price, indicating that steel mills were under little operating pressure and merchants were unwilling to cut prices and ship at a loss. Overall, there is no major news in the market to break the balance, and the performance is relatively calm. The steel market may continue to fluctuate.

Disclaimer: Mysteel strives to use accurate information and objective and fair content and opinions described in the information, but does not guarantee whether necessary changes are necessary. The information provided by Mysteel is for customer decision-making reference only and does not constitute direct advice for customers to make decisions. Customers should not use it to replace their own independent judgment. Any decision made by the customer has nothing to do with Mysteel.

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