The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting, "economic stability and improvement", "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "supporting the bottom" have become the main policy ideas, and it is

2024/05/0101:44:33 hotcomm 1305

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting, "economic stability and improvement", "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "supporting the bottom" have become the main policy ideas, and it is not appropriate to have too high expectations for economic growth. The three major battles have been emphasized again and the order of poverty alleviation has been advanced. Strengthening infrastructure construction has been emphasized again. Improving scientific and technological strength and innovation capabilities have been placed in an important position. From a policy perspective, the liquidity environment and profit expectations faced by A shares next year will still remain relatively favorable, and the certainty of the two-and-a-half-year upward cycle starting in early 2019 will further increase. The technology, infrastructure and other sectors highlighted in the annual strategy report are expected to receive greater policy support next year.

[Opinions and Strategies·Market Discussion] New changes in A-shares after the Politburo meeting. Interpretation of economic conference documents requires attention to the expression of continuity and difference, the "expansion" and "collapse" of specific nouns, and the attributives and modifiers in the description of policy intensity. In addition, the formulation of the Politburo meeting in April, July, and October each year cannot be simply compared with the content of the Politburo meeting at the end of the year. The contents of this week’s Politburo meeting showed that the policy emphasizes “countercyclical adjustment” and “support”, and it may be difficult to see upward “stimulus” in the policy in 2020. The three major battles have been emphasized again and the order of describing poverty alleviation has been advanced. "Poverty alleviation" may become an important means of transfer payments affecting consumption next year. It emphasizes strengthening infrastructure construction and does not mention subdivided areas. Traditional and new infrastructure may go hand in hand. In addition, the meeting will focus on "improving scientific and technological strength and innovation capabilities" as next year's work, which means that policy support for the science and technology industry will only increase in 2020. Generally speaking, the technology and infrastructure sectors are expected to receive greater policy support next year. Pay attention to more statements from the Central Economic Work Conference in the next stage.

[Medium View·Business] After the revenue of Taiwanese electronics stocks continued to improve and overseas semiconductor equipment shipments continued to improve, the decline in global semiconductor sales continued to narrow. Except for Europe, semiconductor demand in all other regions improved; domestic software The growth rate of industrial profits has accelerated; the prosperity of the information technology industry has increased significantly. Recently, the price of float glass has fallen slightly, the increase in national cement prices has slowed down, and the prosperity of glass, cement and other building materials has declined slightly. Profits from pig farming rebounded slightly after falling from highs for a month.

[Funds·Popular] Enthusiasm for Southbound Stock Connect continues, and financing returns. In the first week after the MSCI expansion was implemented, the net inflow of funds from the north exceeded 20 billion yuan. On the one hand, improved global risk appetite guided the inflow of funds; on the other hand, some funds actively tracking MSCI continued to add positions. White Horse, a home appliance brand with a relatively low valuation, has received concentrated holdings from the Mainland Stock Exchange. The electronics industry is still highly sought after, while the intensity of holdings in cyclical sectors has dropped significantly. The sentiment of financiers may have been boosted by news of the progress of the trade dispute. They have turned from net outflows in the early stage to large-scale net inflows, focusing on increasing their positions in electronics and computers. Last week, the technology sector continued to rise, causing some ETF investors to make profit redemptions. In contrast, financial real estate and military industry ETFs had net subscriptions.

[Theme·Wind Direction] The current market has a high degree of recognition for themes with high certainty of performance realization in a relatively short period of time, typical such as ETC themes, TWS themes and the recent TMPS (Tire Pressure Monitoring) theme, which brings us The inspiration is: Under existing market conditions or structural market conditions, investors require the timing of "performance realization" of themes to be significantly advanced. The closer the "performance realization" is to the catalytic time point of the event, the more likely it is that the theme will be sought after by investors. These changes in the current theme market will affect our subsequent theme investment ideas. For example, VR/AR, cloud games, cloud computers, cloud mobile phones, etc. proposed in the early stage may become more investment opportunities due to the short time between the occurrence of catalytic events and the realization of performance. Defined areas.

[Data·Valuation] The valuation levels of all A-shares rose slightly this week, and the valuation of GEM rose significantly. The valuations of the mining, banking and construction and decoration sectors were unchanged from last week, while the valuations of the electronics, computers, defense industry, communications and media sectors increased significantly.

Risk warning: Economic data is lower than expected, policy support is less than expected, and trade frictions escalate.

01 Opinion and market discussion - new changes behind the Politburo meeting

A-shares are greatly affected by policies. Important meetings determine the tone of fiscal and monetary policies and industrial policies, which will change the overall funding and profit expectations of A-shares, thereby affecting the trend of A-shares On the other hand, industrial policies will change the profit structure of different industries, thereby bringing about industry opportunities and risks.

Meetings that have a significant impact on the economy include the following categories. In terms of policy tone and economic trends throughout the year, the annual Central Economic Work Conference and the Two Sessions are the most critical. The mid-year Politburo meeting discusses the economy and will discuss it based on the current economic situation. Certain adjustments have been made to the situation. And often the adjustment of policy tone in the middle of the year will also have a certain impact on market trends.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

Interpretation of meetings is one of the common tasks of the sell-side team (macro, strategy, bonds, finance, real estate, etc.). There are several key points that investors need to pay attention to.

First, pay attention to continuous expression and differential expression.

For example, in terms of "coordinating various tasks such as stabilizing growth, promoting reform, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood, preventing risks, and ensuring stability", if the policy is not continuously followed, it will be interpreted that "the government puts stabilizing growth first" "But in fact, most of the time, stabilizing growth is given top priority, which cannot reflect policy changes. The new formulations and changes in expressions every year require special attention.

Second, pay attention to "expand" and "collapse", as well as the order of expression after expansion.

In the official documents, there are many expressions that can be "collapsed" and "expanded". For example:

"Three reductions, one reduction and one supplement" - cutting overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing costs, and making up for shortcomings

"Three major battles" - in preventing and resolving major risks, targeted poverty alleviation, and pollution prevention and control Tackling the "Six Stabilities" - stabilizing employment, stabilizing finance, stabilizing foreign trade, stabilizing foreign investment, stabilizing investment, and stabilizing expectations

In addition, the differences in the order of the statements also reflect the policy orientation, such as the Politburo at the end of 2017 In the meeting, “Preventing and resolving major risks requires effective control of the macro-leverage ratio... Targeted poverty alleviation requires targeted assistance to the special poor population... Pollution prevention and control must continue to significantly reduce the total emission of major pollutants”; and at the end of 2019, “ Ensure that the goals and tasks of poverty alleviation are achieved, the phased goals of pollution prevention and control are achieved, and systemic financial risks do not occur.” In 2018, the statement that preventing and resolving major risks must effectively control the macro-leverage ratio was ranked first, and the statement of poverty alleviation in 2020 was ranked first.

Third, pay attention to the strength of "attributive" and "modifier".

For example, the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2018 mentioned "stabilizing aggregate demand," while the tone set at the end of 2015 and 2016 was to "moderately expand aggregate demand." The magnitude and sustainability of new social financing in the following year were quite different.

For another example, when formulating fiscal policies, when proactive fiscal policies have attributive words, such as "increasing efforts" and "increasing efficiency", the growth rate of newly launched infrastructure projects will increase significantly.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

Fourth, the Politburo meeting at the end of the year should be distinguished from the Politburo meeting in the middle of the year.

The Political Bureau holds meetings to discuss the economy, usually in April, July, October and December. However, the Political Bureau meeting in December mainly discusses the deployment of work for the next year, while the Political Bureau meetings in April, July and October The meeting focuses on analyzing and arranging the specific situation of each quarter. Therefore, if the Politburo meeting in April, July, and October is not included in the communiqué, it does not mean that the policy tone will change. We still need to wait for the specific arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference. Therefore, the April 7/10 Politburo meeting and the December Politburo meeting cannot be simply compared.

For example, the Politburo in April/July this year mentioned that "houses are for living, not for speculation" or similar expressions, but this Politburo meeting did not mention it. Some analysts believe that the attitude towards real estate has changed.We believe that such an inference is not rigorous. The economic bulletin discussed at the 2018 Politburo meeting did not mention real estate. However, the seventh task of the Economic Work Conference mentioned that "we must build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market and insist that houses are used for living." "It is not for speculation." Therefore, every quarterly political meeting in 2019 has a similar statement. The economic communiqué discussed at this Politburo meeting did not mention real estate. This cannot be understood as a change in policy tone, but may not be within the scope of the communiqué. The actual attitude towards real estate needs to be determined in the communiqué of the Central Economic Work Conference.

Chinese characters are broad and profound, and different expressions imply different policy expectations. The actual operation process must be cross-referenced with the actual situation of fiscal, monetary and industrial policies.

● Key points that need attention in this Politburo meeting

Compared with the previous two years, this Politburo meeting has seen the following changes:

First, in 2018, it focused on "expanding" and emphasizing six stabilizations. At the end of 2019, "economic stability" The basic trend of good growth in the medium and long term has not changed." Therefore, the "six stability" changes from "expand" to "fold".

Second, continuing the statement from previous quarters, policies will continue to "make good use of countercyclical adjustment tools", combined with the statement that "social policies must support the bottom line", the policies in 2020 will be more countercyclical and bottom-up in nature. No upward "stimulus" can be expected.

Third, the three major battles are elaborated to ensure that the goals and tasks of poverty alleviation are achieved, that the phased goals of the pollution prevention and control battle are achieved, and that systemic financial risks do not occur. The importance of poverty alleviation has obviously increased. Focus on transfer payment methods that affect consumption next year from reducing personal income tax this year to poverty alleviation next year.

Fourth, "strengthening infrastructure construction" was mentioned again. At the Politburo meeting in July 2019, it was mentioned that "we will implement projects to make up for shortcomings such as the renovation of old urban communities, urban parking lots, and the construction of urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities, and accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as information networks." At the Politburo meeting at the end of 2015, “it is necessary to enhance urban livability, guide and regulate urban scale, optimize urban spatial layout, and strengthen municipal infrastructure construction.” These two times brought about a large-scale market trend in the information technology sector after July this year, and in 2016 triggered a significant rise in garden and municipal stocks. There are no subdivisions in this infrastructure construction, which means that next year's new and traditional infrastructure construction will go hand in hand. It is in line with the recommendation expectations for "technology" and "construction" stocks in our recently released 2020 annual outlook.

Fifth, "achieving new breakthroughs in scientific and technological innovation" is an important work result this year, and "improving scientific and technological strength and innovation capabilities" will be the focus of next year's work. As trade friction continues to expand, the improvement of scientific and technological strength has become one of the key issues at the national level. Therefore, support for the technology industry will only increase in 2020, and technology will still be the top priority for investment next year. .

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting, The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

Since the content of the communiqué of the Politburo meeting at the end of the year is relatively streamlined, the Central Economic Work Conference, which will be more guiding for investment in 2020, will be held in the near future, and we will also make corresponding analysis at that time.

02 Medium · Boom - The semiconductor boom continues, and building materials and other prices weaken

After the revenue of Taiwanese electronics stocks continued to improve and overseas semiconductor equipment shipments continued to improve, the decline in global semiconductor sales continued to narrow. Global semiconductor sales continued to improve in October, with semiconductor sales in the Americas, China, Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region narrowing their year-on-year declines. Its semiconductor sales in Latin America were US$7.18 billion, down 27.1% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed 3.3 percentage points from the previous month; semiconductor sales in China were US$13.03 billion, down 10.2% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. . The profit growth rate of the domestic software industry is accelerating. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total profit of the software industry in October increased by 11.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

The prosperity of glass, cement and other building materials has declined slightly. Float glass prices have fallen slightly recently. As of December 6, the average spot price of float glass in major cities across the country closed at 1,636.59 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.58%.In terms of cement prices, the increase in cement prices across the country has slowed down. Cement prices in East China and Northwest China have rebounded. Cement prices in North China, Southwest, Northeast and Central and South China have basically remained the same as last week. As of December 6, the average cement price in East China was 583.43 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.67%; the average cement price in northwest China was 446.8 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.36%.

Pig breeding profits rebounded slightly after falling from highs for one consecutive month. Profits from self-breeding and self-raising pig breeding have rebounded, ending a month of consecutive decline, and the price ratio of pigs and grains has rebounded. As of December 6, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pig breeding was 2,272.72 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 5.72%. The average price of piglets in 22 provinces and cities was 93.12 yuan/kg, down 0.59% from last week, and the decline narrowed. The price of piglets was 17.49, up 9.04% from last week.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

03 Funds are scarce - Mainland China's Enthusiasm continues, and financing flows back

In the first week after the expansion of MSCI, the enthusiasm for northbound funds continued, with a net inflow of more than 20 billion yuan in a single week. On the one hand, the improvement in global risk appetite guided the inflow of funds; On the other hand, some funds that actively track MSCI continue to add positions. White Horse, a home appliance brand with a relatively low valuation, has received concentrated holdings from the Mainland Stock Exchange. The electronics industry is still highly sought after, while the intensity of holdings in cyclical sectors has dropped significantly. The sentiment of financing customers may be boosted by news about the progress of trade negotiations. Financing funds have turned from net outflows in the early stage to large-scale net inflows, and they have concentrated on increasing their positions in electronics and computers. Last week, the technology sector continued to rise, causing some ETF investors to make profit redemptions. In contrast, financial real estate and military industry ETFs had net purchases.

This week (December 02 to December 06), the net inflow of funds going north was 20.551 billion yuan, and the enthusiasm for funds going north continued. In terms of industry preferences, the industries with higher net purchases by Beishang funds are household appliances (4.526 billion yuan), electronics (3.766 billion yuan), and food and beverages (1.666 billion yuan). The stocks with higher net purchases mainly include Gree Electric Appliances. (3.745 billion yuan), Luxshare Precision (1.461 billion yuan), Wuliangye (1.030 billion yuan), Midea Group (733 million yuan), etc. The only industry with net sales was banks (-422 million yuan). The stocks with higher net sales were China Merchants Bank (-492 million yuan), Hikvision (-195 million yuan), Tongfu Microelectronics (-158 million yuan). Judging from the intensity of increases and decreases, the intensity of increases in household appliances has increased significantly in the past week, and the intensity of non-ferrous metals has also increased. In contrast, the cyclical sectors (building materials, steel, building decoration, mining, real estate, etc.) have increased The holding intensity has dropped significantly, and the net holding intensity of the electronics industry has also weakened.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

In terms of financing, as of December 5, the financing balance was 958.833 billion yuan, and the net financing inflow that week was 6.85 billion yuan, and the net inflow scale increased from the previous week. From the perspective of industry preferences, industries with higher financing capital purchases include electronics and computers, and industries with higher financing net sales include electrical equipment, public utilities, and food and beverages. Specifically, net financing purchases of electronics and computers were 2.07 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan respectively; net sales of electrical equipment, public utilities, and food and beverages were 225 million yuan, 153 million yuan, and 136 million yuan respectively. From the perspective of individual stocks, stocks with higher net purchases in financing include CITIC Securities (300 million yuan), Oriental Fortune (246 million yuan), China Software (200 million yuan), etc.; stocks with higher net sales include Wuliangye (-210 million yuan), Gree Electric Appliances (-189 million yuan), Poly Real Estate (-162 million yuan), etc.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

Judging from the net purchases of ETFs, information technology and brokerage ETFs had net redemptions that week, while financial real estate and military industry ETFs had net purchases. Specifically, in the first four trading days of this week, the cumulative net subscriptions for information technology and brokerage ETFs were 845 million and 427 million respectively, while the consumption, medicine, financial real estate and military industry ETFs had a net subscription of 26 million for the week. , 86 million copies, 66 million copies and 213 million copies. The reason is that the technology sector continued to rise last week, which may have led to profit redemption by some information technology ETF investors.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

From the perspective of capital needs, the scale of reductions of important shareholders has increased, and the scale of announced planned reductions has decreased. Last week, important shareholders increased their holdings in the secondary market by 1.32 billion yuan and reduced their holdings by 5.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net reduction of 4.5 billion yuan, an increase from last week's net reduction of 3.1 billion yuan. In addition, the announced planned reduction of holdings is 3.297 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous 7.771 billion yuan.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

04 Theme·Wind Direction - Pay attention to the gradual change of thematic investment ideas

The market rebounded this week. The Wind All-A Index rose 2.23% for the week, and the CSI 300 rose 1.93% for the week. The themes with the highest gains this week were basically TMT. theme.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

Thematic events worthy of attention this week and next are:

1, domestic operating system - Chinese software integrates Winning Software and Tianjin Kirin, and establishes a new operating system company

On December 6, Chinese software in China's electronic information industry The group headquarters held a press conference on the integration of its operating system companies. Chinese software will integrate its two operating system companies: Winning Software and Tianjin Qilin to establish a new operating system company. For this integration, a special working group was established by China Software , Winning Software, and Tianjin Qilin to coordinate capital and brand, technology and version, marketing and sales. (China News Service)

2. Pork - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Three-Year Action Plan to Accelerate the Restoration and Development of Pig Production". The action plan to return production capacity to normal in 2021

proposes to curb the decline in pig stocks as soon as possible this year and ensure that the decline is stopped before the end of the year. The rebound will ensure that the pork market supply is basically stable during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival next year and the national "Two Sessions"; ensure that production capacity will basically return to near-normal levels by the end of 2020 and return to normal in 2021. Implement the subsidy project for the construction of large-scale pig farms, urge all localities to promptly implement the 2019 project funds, and guide the farmers to start construction as soon as possible; timely release the 2020 project funds, speed up the project implementation progress, and form actual production capacity as soon as possible. Make good use of pigs and allocate incentive funds from large counties to support the development of pig production, animal disease prevention and control, and the construction of circulation infrastructure. To implement the subsidy funds for the compulsory culling of African swine fever, counties and cities must speed up the allocation of subsidy funds and pay the subsidy funds in place within three months.

3. Digital Currency - The European Central Bank may accelerate public digital currency plans

Reuters quoted a confidential ECB document as saying that if the cost of intra-European payments remains high, it may be necessary to launch a digital currency for ECB payments, adding that the use of cash will decrease. signs that may accelerate the implementation of digital currencies. EU finance ministers will discuss the document on Thursday and are expected to issue a joint statement welcoming the ECB's possible plans to launch a digital currency.

4, Graphene - New method reveals the atomic arrangement of graphene superconducting material

A research team composed of the University of Tokyo, Waseda University, Japan Atomic Energy Research and Development Agency, High Energy Accelerator Research Institute, etc. used the TRHEPD method to clarify the relationship between graphene and calcium for the first time The atomic arrangement of a two-dimensional compound formed with superconducting properties. The research team also confirmed through experiments that this atomic arrangement shows a superconducting phenomenon with zero resistance, paving the way for the development of ultra-high-speed information processing nanodevices with zero energy consumption using graphene. (Science and Technology Daily)

5, MLCC - Murata successfully mass-produced ultra-small MLCC

Apple and Huawei supplier Murata has developed an ultra-small multilayer ceramic capacitor with a size of 0.25mm x 0.125mm, which only accounts for One-fifth of the size of existing capacitors, but the storage capacity is increased by 10 times. Making this key component smaller will free up valuable space inside 5G smartphones. Mass production of the new multilayer ceramic capacitors is expected to begin next spring. (Nikkei Asian Review)

6, ultrasonic under-screen fingerprint recognition - Apple is rumored to send high-level executives to secretly visit GIS next week to discuss cooperation in ultrasonic under-screen fingerprint recognition

Apple intends to introduce under-screen fingerprint recognition for the first time in the next-generation iPhone Function, it is rumored that high-level executives will be sent to Hon Hai Group 's Yecheng GIS-KY Chengdu factory next week to discuss cooperation in ultrasonic under-screen fingerprint recognition and finalize details in terms of production capacity, yield, price, etc. In addition, GIS has recently been reported to have entered the Mini LED field and will be responsible for the assembly of Apple iPad Mini LED modules in the future.Recently, it has been reported from the supply chain that Apple has asked many under-screen fingerprint recognition companies to send samples for testing. In addition to this year's lawsuit settlement between Apple and Qualcomm, Qualcomm is the leader in ultrasonic under-screen fingerprint recognition technology. The market believes that and Apple will pave the way for the introduction of under-screen fingerprint recognition in the future. (Taiwan Economic Daily)

7, independent and controllable - Changxin Storage announced a new roadmap: it has begun the production of 19nm computer memories

Changxin Storage Technology Co., Ltd. has begun the production of computer memories based on the 19nm process. The company has at least formulated More than two 10nm-level process roadmaps have been developed, and it is planned to produce various types of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) in the future. It is reported that Changxin Memory is using its 10G1 technology (19nm process) to manufacture 4Gb and 8Gb DDR4 memory chips, aiming to commercialize and put them on the market in the first quarter of 2020. Changxin Memory also plans to build two more DRAM wafer fabs. (cnBeta)

8. New energy vehicles - "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (Draft for Comments): Explore the construction of hydrogen transportation pipelines and promote the construction of hydrogenation infrastructure

"Draft for Comments" proposes, Improve the economy of hydrogen fuel production, storage and transportation, carry out the application of industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production technology according to local conditions, accelerate the industrialization of advanced and applicable hydrogen storage materials; carry out demonstrations of high-pressure gaseous, low-temperature liquid and solid storage and transportation technologies Application, explore the construction of hydrogen transportation pipelines, and gradually reduce the cost of hydrogen fuel storage and transportation. Promote the construction of hydrogenation infrastructure, support the use of existing sites and facilities to carry out comprehensive supply services of oil, gas, hydrogen and electricity, and support the commercial demonstration operation of fuel cell vehicles in areas with conditions.

html Since June, there have been certain changes in thematic investment. The main reason is that the market has a high degree of recognition for themes with high certainty of performance in a relatively short period of time. Typical examples include ETC themes, TWS themes and the recent TMPS (Tire Pressure Monitoring) ) theme, among which the ETC and TMPS themes are both forced by policies to bring performance certainty to relevant listed companies, and TWS is mainly due to the increase in industry volume caused by technological progress. The enlightenment these three themes bring us is:

■ Under existing market conditions or structural market conditions, investors have much earlier requirements for the timing of "performance realization" of themes. The closer the "performance realization" is to the catalytic time point of the event, the more likely it is that the theme will be sought after by investors;

■ Catalytic intensity The strength of the theme no longer determines the height of the theme. For example, the blockchain theme in the early stage brought about the "continuous one-word board" market under strong catalysis, but subsequent participation has almost no winning rate;

■ The learning effect of investors may lead to the creation of similar themes Highly, for example, TMPS has a strong learning effect compared to ETC;

■ In the future, before market transactions are significantly higher, the theme market is likely to continue the current thinking, and the thinking of theme investors may gradually change.

These changes in the current theme market will affect our subsequent theme investment ideas. For example, among the top ten investment themes in 2020 that we proposed in the 2020 annual strategy, VR/AR, cloud games, cloud computers, cloud mobile phones, etc. It may be that the time between the occurrence of catalytic events and the realization of performance is relatively short, so it has become an area with relatively certain investment opportunities. In other words, this type of theme can not only attract attention but also make investors make money. On the contrary, themes with a long time to realize performance may be In the current market environment, it is just "eyeballs but not money". Investors need to carefully consider the changes in the current market theme investment ideas.

05 Data·Valuation - The overall A-share valuation rose slightly

The valuation level of all A-shares rose slightly this week. As of the close on December 6, all A-share PEs (TTM) increased by 0.3X to 14.4X, which is at the 22.0% percentile of historical valuation levels. The GEM valuation has risen significantly this week, with PE (TTM) rising 1.6X to 40.3X, which is at 25.5% of the historical valuation level. The CSI 300 Index PE (TTM), which represents large-cap stocks, rose 0.2X to 11.7X and is at the 31.2% percentile of historical valuation levels. The CSI 1000 Index PE (TTM), which represents small-cap stocks, rose 0.7X to 23.4X, which is at the 15.2% percentile of historical valuation since 2014.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

In terms of industry valuations, except for the mining, banking and construction and decoration sectors, which were unchanged from last week, the valuation levels of other industries rose this week. Among Shenwan's first-level industries this week, the valuation of the electronics, computer, defense industry, communications and media sectors has increased significantly, exceeding 1.0X. Among them, the price-to-earnings ratio of the electronics sector has increased by 1.9X, which is at the 32.1% percentile of historical valuation levels; The valuation of the computer sector increased by 1.7X and is at the 47.3% percentile of historical levels; the valuation of the defense and military industry sector increased by 1.4X to 54.4X and is at the 57.3% historical percentile; the valuation of the communications sector increased by 1.1X to 36.9X; the valuation of the media sector increased by 1.1X to 36.9X; Values ​​moved up 1.1X to 29.8X. As of the close of trading on December 6, the top five industries in terms of primary industry valuations were national defense and military industry, computers, electronics, communications, and medicine and biology.

The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting, The Political Bureau meeting was held this week to analyze and study the economic work in 2020. Judging from the tone set at this meeting,

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