The international situation affects the whole body. A casual detail can affect the overall situation, especially in war.
At present, this protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its 110th day. The two sides are still fighting in Kharkov , Severodonetsk and other places. The battlefield situation continues to be stalemate, which is not only adding new features to the ceasefire negotiations. The obstacles are also adding more turmoil and chaos to the world.
html On June 13, when the battlefield situation between Russia and Ukraine was in a stalemate, "off the field" also ushered in new trends that profoundly affected the international situation, at least 3 of them.
Trend 1: As the European energy crisis becomes increasingly severe, the Russian-Ukrainian oil pipeline was suddenly bombed.
html On the 13th, RIA Novosti reported that a group of unidentified persons recently launched an attack on the "Friendship" oil pipeline from Russia to Europe, causing 3 explosions near the village of Gulevka in Obryansk Region. This place is only 40 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border .At present, no damage to the pipeline or oil leakage has been found, but the relevant substation , cables and other auxiliary facilities have been damaged. At the same time, no organization or individual has yet claimed responsibility for the incident, and Russia is launching an investigation.
Among these, three details cannot be ignored.
, the bombed oil pipeline is not simple.
The "Friendship" oil pipeline starts from Russia, passes through Ukraine, and leads to the European continent. It has a total length of 9,739 kilometers and a maximum oil transportation capacity of 100 million tons per year. It is one of the largest oil pipelines in the world and is also used to transport oil from Russia to Europe. One of the main pipelines for oil.
, the time when the "Friendship" oil pipeline was bombed was unusual.
From the perspective of the overall environment, is an important moment when the global energy crisis is intensifying and Europe is facing an "oil shortage".
Moreover, because the EU implemented a comprehensive embargo on Russian oil entering the EU by sea in the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, exempted Russian oil transported by land pipelines, this means, including "friendship" "All oil pipelines, including pipelines, are the only channel for Russian oil to enter Europe.
At such a time point, the "friendship" pipeline was suddenly blown up. This is obviously not a coincidence.
From a small background, is relatively "coincidentally" that just before the "Friendship" oil pipeline was bombed, Zelkar, advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Energy, "beat" Hungary , saying that the "Friendship" pipeline leads to Hungary. "Something could happen" with the line.
As for why Hungary was the target of "beating", it was mainly because when the EU announced the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, Hungary immediately expressed its "refuse to oppose" position, which triggered strong dissatisfaction among Kiev .
After all, anything that is detrimental to Russia is supported by Ukraine. Anyone who has objections to sanctions against Russia will naturally become the target of Kiev's criticism.
But now, Ukraine has issued a warning, and the "Friendship" oil pipeline was bombed. This is obviously not a coincidence.
3. The question that the outside world is most concerned about is "Who did it?"
Combined with the bombing of the "Friendship" oil pipeline and Ukraine's Judging from the time points before and after the personnel issued the "warning", it is easy to think that it was Ukraine.
After all, the explosion site was very close to the Ukrainian border. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued to this day, and the two sides have been facing each other on the battlefield. It is not surprising that Ukraine launched additional attacks to put pressure on Russia.
Of course, , we do not rule out the possibility that some Western forces deliberately create chaos and tension and then take advantage of the opportunity to make profits.
On the one hand, the "Friendship" pipeline is of great importance . Once the pipeline fails, it will not only hit Russia, but also further cut off Russia-Europe oil trade and intensify the confrontation between Russia and Europe;
On the other hand, if the Russia-Europe oil channel is affected losses, the "oil shortage" crisis in Europe has intensified, the high price shale oil of the United States, and the British-owned North Sea oil can all take advantage of the situation to enter the European market and make a lot of money.
Therefore, the "beneficiaries" of the bombing of the "Friendship" oil pipeline are not just Ukraine. Who did it is still open to debate.
But having said that, Russia really needs to strengthen its protection of oil pipelines. Otherwise, the next time a larger explosion occurs, the situation will be much more serious than now. The "energy card" held by Russia is very effective. will also be greatly reduced.
However, just as the "Friendship" oil pipeline suffered unknown attacks, Russia made a far-reaching proposal.
Trend 2: Russia is preparing to “start over” and create a new “G8”.
html On the 13th, Volodin, chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), said that Western countries led by the United States have launched large-scale sanctions against Russia, which has severely hit the G7 (G7) economy. This is a sign of hope for the establishment of equal dialogue and Mutually beneficial relations have created conditions for the formation of the "New G8" group of countries.Volodin further pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, the United States' GDP has dropped by 1.5%, and the inflation rate has reached the highest value in the past 40 years, at 8.6%. At the same time, the GDP of 8 countries, including China, Russia, India, Brazil , Indonesia , Iran , Turkey , and Mexico , calculated at purchasing power parity has exceeded G724.4%.
Volodin said that if the United States continues to insist on its own way and achieves failure by harming the interests of other countries, it will inevitably come to an end. He believes that if the "new G8" is established, the United States will completely lose its world hegemony.
The implication is that in the context of the United States fanning the flames and acting recklessly all over the world, the overall interests of the West have been seriously damaged. If it continues to insist on its own way, it will intensify the decline of Western hegemony, and the world structure will undergo subversive changes.
In addition, there are three observation points that cannot be ignored.
First, G7 turned out to be "G8".
Before 2014, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada and Russia jointly formed the Group of Eight , also known as the G8.
After the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, relations between Russia and the West deteriorated rapidly. Russia was subsequently removed from the Group of Eight, and this is how today's G7 emerged.
Secondly, the "new G8" proposed by Russia this time, although it also starts with "G", is completely different from the "old G8". There are no developed countries in it, but according to Russian data, the GDP is It has already surpassed G7 and has full potential.
Thirdly, among the eight countries proposed by Russia this time, Brazil, Iran and Turkey all have quite tense relations with the United States. This has once again deepened the conflict between the "new G8" that Russia plans to form this time and the G7. The feeling of "the tip of a needle against the awn of wheat".
Of course, it is undeniable that Russia's proposal to establish a "new G8" this time is still in the planning stage, and there are still great unknowns as to whether it can be realized. But even so, it still reflects three points:
First, sanctions are indeed a "double-edged sword", hurting others and hurting themselves . The West seemed confident when it launched large-scale sanctions against Russia, but after the sanctions, the West will The price paid is also huge.
Second, times have indeed changed. With the gradual rise of various countries, both American hegemony and Western hegemony have long lost the capital to run rampant in the international community. If you continue to blindly rely on hegemony and stir up trouble all over the world, sooner or later you will be overthrown by the times. Abandoned by the torrent.
Third, the United States is uniting with its allies to put pressure on Russia, and Russia is also looking for help to prepare a counterattack. After all, there are many countries in the world that have been suffering for a long time, and the West is no exception.
The United States’ “priority” approach of doing whatever it takes to achieve its own interests and regardless of the safety of other countries will sooner or later make it become a “lonely person” step by step.
However, just as Russia proposed the formation of a "new G8" because of the heavy losses to the Western economy, some Western companies "regret" behind it.
html On the 13th, the press secretary of the Russian President said that many European and American companies that had previously "responded to the West's call" to withdraw from Russia are now hoping to return to the Russian market as soon as possible. Russia is treating this matter with caution. These Western companies now have to continue to wait. .The implication is that Russia is not a country where you can come and leave whenever you want. At the beginning, Western companies were "arrogant" and ignored Russia. Now they want to return to Russia, but they have to do so. Facing the question of "Is affordable?" ?
And this once again shows one point - with the development of the times, the global economy has already established a close connection of " you have me, I have you, and no one will feel comfortable without it" , and the West intends to completely "isolate" The cost to Russia is immeasurable, and it can easily backfire on itself.
At present, some Western companies are paying for their original "irrational and unwise" decisions. Will it be the turn of Western countries such as the United States, Britain, France, and Germany next time?
Finally, as I said before, any sanctions and confrontation are not solutions to the problem, and will only bring more confrontation, tension, and even hatred.
We still hope that all parties will value peace and the overall situation and ease the situation, quell the war and restore peace through dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible.
