At 9 a.m. on March 3, a large-scale power outage occurred without warning in Taiwan, China. Taipower Corporation said that an equipment failure at the Xingda Power Plant in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, caused the disconnection of the southern system. Currently, the entire Tainan and Kaohsiung regions are experiencing power outages, with rotating blackouts in the central and northern parts. From south to north, at least 5.49 million households were without power, affecting tens of millions of people. The lives of ordinary people across Taiwan were in chaos. Industrial and commercial enterprises suspended production, the semiconductor chain was severely damaged, the petrochemical and steel industries were halted, and the economic losses were huge.
This is embarrassing. Within a week, there were as many as three power outages across Taiwan; since "Kangkong" came to power in 2016, Taiwan has experienced five power outages in six years. There was a major power outage in March in Yangchun. What should we do when the electricity consumption peaks in summer? Ukraine was still having normal power supply despite the raging war. The capital Kiev was surrounded for several days without power outage, and major blackouts occurred one after another in Taiwan. Just on March 1, when "Kangkongcai" met with Taiwan's eight major industrial and commercial groups, it also assured companies that the power supply would be stable by 2030 (meaning that at this stage, I can't make any promises to you).
Innate deficiencies and poor decision-making
Why are Taiwan experiencing power outages one after another? On the surface, it appears that the power outage was caused by bad luck and an accident. But putting aside the phenomenon and looking at the essence, it is actually a serious power crisis.
Taiwan is short of coal and oil (thermal power generation is highly polluting), and relies heavily on imported energy; Taiwan has a lot of rainfall, with the highest one in the eastern region being Yushan , but water energy resources are limited (large hydroelectric power stations cannot be built); natural gas Completely dependent on imports, as long as there are typhoons or sea congestion for a few days, "food" will be cut off; green renewable resources, photovoltaic can only generate electricity during the day, and wind power depends on the strength of the wind, and sustainability cannot be guaranteed. In order to make photovoltaic and wind power stable and usable, more pumped storage stations, large-scale energy storage devices, and gas turbines must be built, which will significantly increase the cost of using clean energy. Therefore, nuclear energy is an indispensable component of Taiwan's power security.
Following the construction of the first, second and third nuclear power plants in Taipei's Jinshan Township and Pingtung in the 1970s and 1980s, Taiwan prepared to build a fourth nuclear power plant in the 1980s and 1990s, the so-called "Nuclear Four". Afterwards, two major nuclear power accidents, "Three Mile Island" and "Chernobyl" occurred that shocked the world. Affected by this, the Taiwanese people continued to oppose the "Nuclear Four", and the construction of the "Nuclear Four" was stopped. Construction stopped.
Which is more important, environmental protection or development? Asking this is as demanding as "I want a good mobile phone signal, but there cannot be a base station nearby." Fortunately, Taiwan's electricity supply was relatively abundant at that time, but as time went by, Taiwan's electricity demand was slowly rising.
In 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred in the northeastern waters of Japan and triggered a tsunami. The biggest secondary disaster caused by this earthquake is the well-known " Fukushima nuclear accident". After
, there was once again a wave of abolition of nuclear power on the island. Slogans such as "I am a human being and I am anti-nuclear power", "Without nuclear safety, there will be no nuclear power", "There will be no shortage of electricity if nuclear power is not covered", and slogans such as " "Power generation with love" and other banners. Restarting the nuclear program is tantamount to stillbirth. In the end, the goal of "2025 non-nuclear homeland" and the non-delay of the first nuclear power plant, the second nuclear power plant, and the non-delay of the third nuclear power plant will not change, and the fourth nuclear power plant will be mothballed and shut down.
Current situation and future
According to Taipower's data, thermal power generation accounted for 79.9% in 2016, including 36.9% coal, 4.4% fuel, 36% gas, and 2.6% steam and electricity (excluding garbage and biogas). Renewable energy accounts for 5.1%, pumped hydropower accounts for 1.5%, and nuclear energy accounts for 13.5%. The Tsai government hopes to increase the proportion of renewable energy to 20%, reduce the proportion of coal to 30%, and increase natural gas to 50% in 2025.
In 2016, the electricity price for Taiwanese residents was two Taiwan dollars per kilowatt hour. Purely from the perspective of electricity cost, the cost of nuclear power is the lowest, which is one Taiwan dollar.Thermal power costs RMB 2 to RMB 1.5, natural gas power generation costs RMB 3, wind power costs around RMB 3.5, and solar power costs as much as RMB 8. If the cost of alternative energy is higher than that of nuclear energy, electricity prices will have to increase. In addition to rising prices, the reduction of industrial electricity subsidies will inevitably reduce the willingness of companies to invest in , the economy will further deteriorate, and more people will inevitably be unemployed. It is a global consensus to limit coal, oil, and natural gas to reduce the proportion of fossil energy while vigorously developing clean energy. However, the rush to eliminate fossil energy is not only detrimental to a smooth transition, but will also cause the price of fossil fuels to soar.
The two sides of the Taiwan Strait have been at odds with each other in recent years, and Taiwan's economic environment is lifeless. Blackouts and power rationing occur every once in a while, and people complain for a while, but it will be over when the power is restored; but if money is spent on power infrastructure, if other important projects cannot be sustained, it may trigger a series of reactions. When Taiwan was most short of electricity, it even secretly lowered the voltage in the middle of the night. It doesn't matter for civilian use, but industrial power tripped due to this magical operation, damaging many production machines and causing heavy losses.
Especially for high-end manufacturing industries such as semiconductor , the losses caused by unforeseen power outages and water outages are difficult to estimate. Even if the power outage lasts only 0.05 seconds to 1 second, it may have a catastrophic impact on production. Taiwan has major semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., UMC, Advanced Micro Devices, and AUO, and is the world's largest semiconductor supply source. Any accident such as a power outage or water outage may have a blow to the global semiconductor industry chain.
After Taiwan abandons nuclear power, it needs to use renewable energy, gas power and thermal power to fill the vacancy of nuclear power, which will not be possible in the short term. Faced with the rising demand for electricity, it does not help that Taipower uses all its power supplies. This means that any problem with any unit or power transmission and distribution equipment will lead to a major power outage.
