The price of crude oil in the international market has continued to fall recently. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the 17th that in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, starting from 24:00 on March 17, 2020, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 1,015 yuan and 975 yuan per ton respectively.
This price adjustment is equivalent to a price reduction of about 8 cents per liter, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fully entered the "5 yuan era." This is the third reduction in refined oil prices in 2020 and the largest decline since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism in 2013.
Floor price reappears after 4 years
As of around 16:00 on March 17, Beijing time, the futures prices of the world's two largest crude oil futures markets - New York Mercantile Exchange WTI and London Brent crude oil were US$30.13/barrel and US$30.96 respectively. /barrel, has been hovering at a low of around US$30/barrel for 7 consecutive days.
It is against this background that Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Department and front-line inspector of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the National Development and Reform Commission press conference that international oil prices have fallen sharply in the past 10 working days, and the average level has fallen below a barrel. The lower limit of US$40 is what we commonly call the “floor price”. To this end, the price of domestic refined oil products will be significantly reduced to a level corresponding to the crude oil price of US$40 from 24:00 on the 17th in accordance with the mechanism. The portion below US$40 will no longer be reduced. "The unpriced portion will not be directly left to the enterprise, but It is directly included in the oil price control risk reserve, and the amount is turned over to the national treasury."
This also means that the domestic oil price "floor price" mechanism was first implemented from January to April 2016, and it was launched again after a lapse of four years.
Car owners have reduced travel costs
Longzhong Information refined oil analyst Xu Wenwen said in an interview with a reporter from Qilu Evening News · Qilu One Point that after this price adjustment, the cumulative drop in gasoline this year is 1,850 yuan/ton, and the drop in diesel is 1,780 yuan/ton. Yuan / ton.
Based on the calculation of an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after this price adjustment, car owners will spend about 39.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of fuel; based on the calculation of a model with a fuel consumption of 7L-8L per 100 kilometers in urban areas, the average mileage per 1,000 kilometers The cost is reduced by 55 yuan to 63 yuan. For a large logistics transport vehicle with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost is reduced by about 332 yuan for every 1,000 kilometers traveled. This price adjustment will significantly reduce costs for private car owners and logistics companies.
Gas station profits increase
The sharp drop in retail prices of gasoline and diesel has continued to have a negative impact on the domestic refined oil market. Longzhong's data model shows that the current start-up of main refineries and independent refineries in Shandong shows signs of a slight increase, and the overall resource supply is showing a slight growth trend. After several dips by middlemen in the early stage, the overall inventory is still high, and the recent market news is still weak. Terminals are not very enthusiastic about entering the market to stock up on goods. They mainly focus on small quantities and frequent purchases. The short-term market inventory still needs time to be consumed.
combined with the current Longzhong data model analysis, compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, wholesale prices have fallen significantly in recent days, causing the gas station's profit margin to increase slightly compared with the previous period. Among them, the average retail profit of gasoline at main gas stations increased by 160 yuan per ton; the main retail profit of diesel increased by 150 yuan per ton. The profits from diesel sales at local refining gas stations also expanded simultaneously, and the profit expanded to 159 yuan/ton. The profit from sales of gasoline at local refining gas stations also increased. Profits increased by 351 yuan/ton.
After this round of refined oil price cuts are realized, the retail price limit will be lowered. It is predicted that retail profits will fall in the later period.
"ceiling price" and "floor price"
Judging from the extent of this price adjustment, domestic refined oil prices follow the principle of timely adjustment according to changes in oil prices in the international market, while taking into account the US$40 protection mechanism setting.
It is worth noting that in 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission further promoted the marketization of refined oil prices and set a "ceiling price" and a "floor price" for domestic refined oil price control - that is, after exceeding US$130, it will be adjusted less and fall below US$40. Not tuned. That is, when the international market oil price is higher than 130 US dollars per barrel, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel is not mentioned or mentioned less; when it is lower than 40 US dollars, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel is not reduced; when operating between 40 US dollars and 130 US dollars , the domestic refined oil price mechanism is adjusted normally, rising when it should rise, and falling when it should fall. The next round of price adjustment of
has a high probability of being stranded. The next price adjustment window of
will open at 24:00 on March 31, 2020. Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that Russia and Saudi Arabia have successively proposed plans to increase production, overseas epidemics are still spreading, and global stock markets have repeatedly experienced circuit breakers, all of which have brought sustained negative pressure to the current international crude oil market.Calculated based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will start with a downward trend, with a range of around 740 yuan/ton. However, since international oil prices have generally been below 40 US dollars/barrel, there is a high probability that the next round of price adjustments will be triggered. Protection mechanism, that is, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will have a higher probability of being stranded.
Qilu Evening News·Qilu One Point Reporter Zhu Guiyin
