text ︱ Zhang Youhua
has analyzed the basic market of the green, blue and white parties. Depending on the direction of the election, the basic market of the Democratic Progressive Party showed signs of loosening, only 30%. The Kuomintang still maintains its basic foundation, about 40%. As for the basic market of the People's Party, although it is difficult to estimate, based on the two votes in , Ke Wenzhe and , Huang Shanshan's basic market should be more than 17%.
If the three parties stick to the basic market, the Kuomintang Jiang Wan safely beat Chen Shizhong and Huang Shanshan. However, in fact, Jiang Wanan cannot count on the numbers if he wants to win, but depends on the momentum and agenda of election operations, because no one will think that there are too many votes for any candidate who engages in the election. Therefore, analyzing the election situation, the basic market is a reference number and cannot be considered as the election conditions.
Review of the Kuomintang winning streak in Wen . The reason why Kowloon Shouzhong lost in the two battles was that he sticks to the basic results, and instead gives the DPP room to operate. If Ke Wen-je had not secretly helped the DPP and the Kuomintang, the chances of Ke's victory were almost slim. From this perspective, if Jiang Wan'an wanted to win the election and stick to the basics, he would definitely repeat the mistakes he had back then. The only variable in Chiang's victory lies in whether the DPP will operate the abandonment effect and kill Jiang Wan'an.
In fact, in this game of the mayoral election in Taipei, neither the Kuomintang nor the People's Party have the capital to abandon the security, only the DPP dares to operate the security. If a ruling party in Taiwan is in power, if it abandons its security, it will not only be politically degenerate, but also be full of vicious political calculations, and the harm it causes to Taiwanese voters is completely contrary to the principles of democracy. Taking green camp voters as voting machines is the beginning of the collapse of the DPP.
No wonder the green camp financial owner told Tsai Ing-wen that if you dare to take action to abandon the security, let Huang Shanshan win, I will definitely let Zheng Yunpeng lose. The reason why the green camp financial owner warned Tsai Ing-wen in advance was that he believed that in order to maintain the position of party chairman, Tsai could sacrifice anyone, including Chen Shizhong and Lin Zhijian whom Tsai were appointed by Tsai. Now Lin Zhijian has hated the political arena, and Chen Shizhong is the dou who cannot be helped. In order to avoid being abandoned, Cai is very likely to give up Chen Shizhong.
If the game really goes to the point of abandoning security, the collapse of the DPP will only achieve Tsai Ing-wen's position. This is not only the beginning of the degeneration of the DPP, but also the tragedy of the DPP. A political party that only has power and no voters in his heart will seem unlawful if it does not collapse.
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