Direct news: Mr. Liu, what do you think about the sudden announcement of his run for the position of chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, the deputy leader of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, suddenly announced his candidacy for the position of chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party?
Special Commentator Liu Heping :In fact, if we relax the time span a little, we can find that for the past thirty years, the "Taiwan independence" forces have been working step by step to cultivate their intergenerational successors, and have been deliberately trying to give them the throne of the leaders of Taiwan. Therefore, you can see that from Lee Teng-hui to Chen Shui-bian, to Tsai Ing-wen, and then to Lai Ching-te, the "King-sun of Taiwan independence" Lai Ching-te, there is a very clear intergenerational inheritance line, and these people are more radical in the path of "Taiwan independence". Once we understand this, we can know that it has long been a suspenseless thing for Lai Ching-te to run for the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party and to run for the 2024 Taiwan leader.
Moreover, Lai Qingte's timing for candidacy this time was also well grasped. First, Tsai Ing-wen, who had always been dissatisfied with Lai Ching-te, has resigned from the position of party chairman because of the earlier defeat of the "nine-in-one" election on the island. Next, she will be unable to dominate the party affairs of the DPP. Instead, she will concentrate on consolidating her government affairs and prevent the occurrence of "lame" in advance; second, Tsai Ing-wen's original candidate for the party chairman, and Zheng Wencan, who was arranged by Tsai Ing-wen to block Lai Ching-te's position, was confirmed by the plagiarism of master's thesis in the past two days, and she suffered a big political fight and basically couldn't get up; third, most of the other political stars in the DPP also failed in politics because of their failure in the election for the "nine-in-one" election. Under such circumstances, Lai Ching-te almost became the only politician in the DPP whose feathers were not tainted. When the DPP morale fell to the bottom, he stood up and ran for the party chairman. Not only would he not be criticized for his greed for power, but he was also a manifestation of his courage to take responsibility and save the party.
Direct news: Then, in your opinion, what is the prospect of Lai Ching-te running for the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think it is no suspense that Lai Qingte's election is not only unsurprising, but there are also several phenomena that I did not expect -
The first thing I didn't expect was that the major factions within the Democratic Progressive Party, including the "British", "Soviet", "New Trends", "You Group" and "Yongyanhui", etc., not only did not show any objections, but also expressed their firm support for Lai Qingte's candidacy in a wide range of mountains. This also allows us to witness the unity of the DPP again. They are always able to quickly calm internal differences when the party is in danger, and to turn the guns and unanimously go against the outside world. This is really worth learning from the KMT that often happens.
The second unexpected thing was that the rest of the politicians who were originally thought by the outside world to be interested in running for the party chairman, including Zheng Wencan, Lin Jialong and others, immediately expressed that they would give up the virtuous, not run for the election, and would not compete with Lai Ching-te. Even Tsai Ing-wen herself said that she would not interfere in party affairs, and stated that "she will help as long as it is good for the DPP." This made Lai Ching-te's run not only lead, but even stand out.
The third unexpected thing is that the "big bosses" within the DPP not only support him in running for the party chairman, but even made a statement in advance now, saying that Lai Ching-te will be the only candidate in the DPP in the 2024 Taiwan leadership election. In other words, in order to highlight Lai Ching-te's status as "only" within the party, the DPP has cleared all political obstacles for it, and even dispelled the hopes of all those in the party who may challenge Lai Ching-te in advance.
I think these all mean that no matter what the outside world looks at it, the DPP has entered the "Lai Ching-te era" ahead of schedule.In this regard, all those who are concerned about the situation in the Taiwan Strait must be prepared necessary psychologically.
Direct news: Then what do you think about Lai Ching-te's prospects for Taiwan's leader in 2024?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that although Lai Ching-te has achieved the status of "only me" within the Democratic Progressive Party, this does not mean that his 2024 run will be smooth sailing.
There are still several difficulties waiting for him next. The first is the Democratic Progressive Party’s party affairs reform. You should know that the DPP elected him as the party chairman in the hope that he could lead the party to achieve reform and win the trust of the people again. In the just-passed "nine-in-one" election, since he was neither the party chairman nor directly involved in the election, he protected his feathers. However, after becoming the party chairman, he had to jump into the muddy water puddle and deal with the power distribution issue of major factions. This will test his political courage and skills.
The second level is how to deal with the relationship with Tsai Ing-wen, or it can be said that after Lai Ching-te becomes the chairman of the Party, he will face the problem of how to deal with the relationship between the party affairs and the government affairs system. Because although Tsai Ing-wen said on the surface that she would not interfere in party affairs, she would never be willing to lose control of the DPP.
The third level is how to dispel the concerns of the United States. You should know that although the United States has always been very ambiguous in its attitude towards "Taiwan independence", it is absolutely impossible to publicly support "Taiwan independence", especially it is impossible to make "Taiwan independence" a practical action. Lai Ching-te has already shown that he is a "pragmatic 'Taiwan independence' worker." This is also the reason why Lai Ching-te was treated coldly when he visited the United States.
The fourth level that Lai Qingte wants to pass is how to gain the recognition of the majority of middle-aged voters. You should know that about 70% of voters on the island advocate the status quo of cross-straits and do not agree with "Taiwan independence".
Of course, in addition to these major obstacles, whether Lai Ching-te can win the 2024 election ultimately depends on what kind of candidate the Kuomintang will launch, and whether the Kuomintang will cooperate with the third-strong People's Party's Ke Wen-je to face the Democratic Progressive Party together.
Direct news: Then what impact will the DPP enter the "Lai Ching-te era" ahead of schedule, and what impact will it have on the next cross-strait relations?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I said that on the island of Taiwan, Lai Qingte is not only a landmark "Taiwan independence " molecule, but also a "Taiwan independence " molecule "has been registered" in the mainland. Under such circumstances, the DPP still allowed it to run for the party chairman and determined its status within the party, which shows that they not only did not fully consider the feelings of the mainland, but also took into account the impact of this behavior on cross-strait relations, but to some extent, they were still deliberately provoking cross-strait relations to stimulate the mainland. Therefore, the DPP has entered the "Lai Ching-te era", which means that the situation in the Taiwan Strait will enter an era of more turbulence and uncertainty. In addition, Lai Ching-te's run for 2024 also means that the next election for Taiwan's leaders will be a more intense blue-green showdown and unification "independence" showdown than in the past.
Of course, even if Lai Ching-te finally won the 2024 Taiwan leadership election, I don’t think the situation in the Taiwan Strait will undergo subversive changes and will enter a state of full-scale war. Because no matter how "independent" Lai Ching-te is, his "Taiwan independence" propositions cannot overcome three major difficulties. First, he cannot overcome the fundamental laws on the island, second, he cannot overcome the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan, and third, he cannot overcome the Sino-US relations. On the issue of "Taiwan independence", Lee Teng-hui cannot do it, Chen Shui-bian cannot do it, Tsai Ing-wen cannot do it, and Lai Ching-te cannot do it either.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen TV's special commentator "Live broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
