Map: Direct News
Direct News: Mr. Liu, what kind of observations and thoughts do you have about the Democratic Progressive Party’s defeat in this "nine-in-one" county and city mayoral election on the island?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Indeed, the setbacks encountered by the DPP this time are the most serious since its founding.
It is mainly reflected in that, first, in the 2018 "nine-in-one" election, the DPP only won 7 seats, that is, the three major cities and 4 ordinary counties and cities on the island. This was once considered the worst local election results in the history of the DPP. However, this time, the DPP only won 5 seats, which means that the major cities and ordinary counties and cities each "shrink" one; second, Zhuoshuixi was once considered the dividing line of the blue-green political territory. To the north of Zhuoshuixi was the world of the blue camp, and to the south of Zhuoshuixixi was the world of the green camp. In the past election campaigns, the Green Camp frequently crossed Zhuoshui River, and its political territory continued to expand. It once won all blue base camps such as Keelung , Taoyuan, and Hsinchu . However, in this election, the DPP's position north of Zhuoshui River was not only gained and lost in an all-round way, but even some of the green camps south of Zhuoshui River could not be defended. After this election, the DPP's local political territory has retreated to a corner of southern Taiwan, "south of Beixi Port". Third, in this election, the DPP not only received more and more votes in the Northern Taiwan region, but also its traditional green iron vote area, including Kaohsiung Tainan, is also narrowing its leading advantage.
On the contrary, the Kuomintang has made rapid progress in this election, not only covering three-quarters of Taiwan's county and city map in one go, but also winning 4 of the six major cities in one fell swoop, especially reviving Taipei City, which is of indicator significance in the "nine-in-one" county and city mayor election and the future Taiwan regional leadership election.
Direct News: Then, in your opinion, the difference in the performance of the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party in this "nine-in-one" election on the island is so different, what is the deep-seated reason behind it?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think the reason for this election is that the first thing is that the Kuomintang’s performed so well , but that the performance of the Democratic Progressive Party really disappointed the voters on the island. The reason for the poor performance of the DPP can be summarized in four words, that is, "A arrogant soldier will be defeated." It is precisely because the DPP not only won a great victory in the election of Taiwan leaders and public opinion representatives in early 2020, but also became unstoppable in the later election of Han Kuo-yu and the so-called "Four Major Referendums" that they developed a arrogant mentality. In the subsequent administration process, they abused their power, not only continued to pursue and fight KMT , but also wanted to destroy the existing political order on the island. Therefore, the failure of this "nine-in-one" election not only reflects the people on the island's hatred of the DPP, but also reflects the desire of voters on the island to use local power to restrain Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP authorities and prevent their power from expanding.
Secondly, I think that Tsai Ing-wen personally bears the main responsibility for the failure of the DPP's election this time. We can even say that the failure of the DPP this time is also Tsai Ing-wen's personal failure. It is precisely because Tsai Ing-wen thought that her high vote was given to her by the people nearly three years ago that the people could do whatever they want inside and outside the party that her confidence was completely inflated. Not only did she recruit nominees for the mayors of six major cities with one person's will, but she even shouted the slogan "The candidate who voted for the DPP is to vote for me Tsai Ing-wen." As a result, not only did most Taiwanese voters teach Tsai Ing-wen a lesson with their votes, but even the basic green camp did not stand up to vote because of their disappointment with Tsai Ing-wen.
Then there is also the failure of the so-called "anti-China and Taiwan" card is also an important reason for the failure of the DPP's "nine-in-one" election.Since playing the "anti-Mainland and Taiwan" card in the previous Taiwan regional leadership elections, when the situation in the Democratic Progressive Party was unfavorable in this "nine-in-one" election, Tsai Ing-wen once again played this card, calling on voters to "stand up for Taiwan", saying that "the whole world is looking at Taiwan's determination to democracy and freedom." However, what Tsai Ing-wen did not expect was that what most Taiwanese voters were most worried about was that Tsai Ing-wen's extreme cross-strait policy might lead to a war on the cross-strait and push Taiwan into a situation of no return. Therefore, this "nine-in-one" election actually reflects the willingness of most voters to "slow down" cross-strait relations.
Direct News: What impact do you think the results of this "nine-in-one" election will have on the next trend of the political situation on the island?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think one of the biggest highlights of this "nine-in-one" election is that a new structural change has occurred in the political territory on the island, that is, a new political sector has emerged outside the traditional blue and green political sectors, that is, the white force represented by the People's Party led by Ke Wen-je . Although this election battle eventually turned into a showdown between the two major political forces of blue and green, the People's Party led by Ko Wen-je only won one seat, that is, Gao Hongan was elected mayor of Hsinchu City. However, this was just the first cry of the People's Party. What's more, in the next 2024 Taiwan leader election, Ko Wen-je's run will be a high probability event. Therefore, the political trends of the White Power are still worthy of our high attention.
In addition to this, I think another highlight of this "nine-in-one" election is its impact on the political ecology of within the blue and green parties. Within the Democratic Progressive Party, since the county and city mayor candidates nominated by Tsai Ing-wen have a very obvious meaning of cultivating British successors, the devastating defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party this "nine-in-one" election will not only hit Tsai Ing-wen's personal political prestige within the party, but also hit the political future of British people. In the 2024 nomination of Taiwan leader candidates, Tsai Ing-wen's power will inevitably decline. This phenomenon is conducive to the emergence of Tsai Ing-wen's "old enemy" Lai Ching-te.
For the Kuomintang, the results of this election not only allowed the outside world to see the hope of the party's comeback in 2024, but more critically, several "political tycoons" also emerged in this election. The great victory in this election campaign, and the Party Chairman Zhu Lilun naturally made contributions to the leadership. However, the emergence of the sudden force of New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi and Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan will pose certain competition and challenges to Zhu Lilun's position within the party. This will most likely test the unity of the Kuomintang again.
Of course, what I want to remind you is that the great victory of this "nine-in-one" election does not mean that the Kuomintang will inevitably win the 2024 Taiwan leadership election. Although Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP’s “anti-Mainland and Taiwan protection” card has expired in this local election, it does not mean that it will inevitably expire in the 2024 Taiwan leadership election. At that time, cross-strait issues will still be the main axis of the election. You should know that the Kuomintang also achieved an overwhelming victory in the "nine-in-one" election in 2018. However, in the Taiwan leadership election two years later, Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party, who were good at provoking cross-strait confrontation, miraculously turned the world up. Therefore, the final election results of Taiwan's leaders in 2024 will also depend on the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the direction of , Sino-US relations, .
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
Editor丨Yu Zhemin, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Editor
