The following is excerpted from "Financial Associated Press" on December 25, 2022, by Lu Lu
The latest strategies of of the top ten brokerages are as follows:
CITIC Securities : It is expected that January will usher in the best allocation time for next year. Continue to balance the allocation around the three main lines of domestic demand
First, the rapid spread of the national epidemic has brought about a short-term period of weak production and consumption, low-level industries and theme transactions have cooled down, and the pace of northward capital inflows has slowed down. Secondly, under the past epidemic prevention policies, the manufacturing industry had an advantage over consumption, but in the future, positive changes in the consumption field will increase significantly. The current public equity holdings are still generally biased towards the manufacturing industry, so positions will continue to be adjusted towards a balanced allocation at the end of the year. Thirdly, the overall valuation level of the market is extremely attractive in the long term. The valuation of the small and medium-sized market capitalization sector is at a historical low. The trading volume is light, close to the level at the end of September, and the transactions are only concentrated in a few hot topics. Finally, it is expected that the market bottom will be confirmed after the epidemic in major cities reaches its peak in January, ushering in the best allocation time next year. Currently, the allocation continues to be balanced around the three main lines of domestic demand: medicine and medical care, real estate chain and post-epidemic recovery.
Everbright Securities : The overall market preference is in the falling stage. Pay attention to the rebound driving force and structural repair.
First of all, the overall market preference is in the falling stage. The phased fulfillment of major meetings and prevention and control optimization, as well as the fall in preference for track stocks, are the key to the current shrinking market trading and increasing adjustment pressure.
Secondly, focus on the structural repair of the rebound driving force. The large consumer sector is still the key context that affects market performance and sentiment. In addition, the annual report preview window will be officially opened in January 2023. For track stocks and blue chips, it is an important window to rebuild confidence, build support, and create structural opportunities.
CICC: A shares short-term consolidation will not change the medium-term positive pattern. The market is still in the layout period
Combined with the current internal and external environment, especially the domestic epidemic is still in the spreading stage, the impact on the market may continue for some time. CICC believes that the current stage of adjustment will not change the long-term situation, and investor sentiment in the market outlook is expected to gradually improve with the expected adjustments to the epidemic and policy efforts. The market is still in the layout period.
Shanxi Securities : A shares continue to adjust Market sentiment has dropped to near freezing point
In the short term, the market has undergone shock adjustments due to the impact of the spread of the epidemic after the relaxation of control, but market sentiment has dropped to near freezing point and is expected to rebound at any time. In the medium and long term, domestic liquidity and corporate profits are expected to gradually improve, The Federal Reserve tightening efforts will gradually weaken, and recent adjustments have been It fully reflects the pessimistic expectations. In the allocation, we recommend sticking closely to the main line of economic structural transformation, and being optimistic about targets with strong mid- to long-term growth logic, rigid downstream demand, and strong short-term seasonal boost. For example, tracks that continue to maintain high prosperity logic (new energy, military industry, and Xinchuang, etc.) + fundamentals recovery flexibility industries (real estate, breeding, high-end manufacturing, medicine, and medical care, etc.) are expected to continue to achieve better performance.
Dongguan Securities: The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the year
Overall, the fiscal deficit far exceeds the level of the same period in previous years, and the pressure on financial resources is still great. The Standing Committee of the State Council made arrangements to ensure the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy and to promote the economy to consolidate and stabilize its foundation and maintain operation within a reasonable range. It is expected that next year's fiscal policy will emphasize more precision in the direction of efforts and will be more tilted toward the grassroots. The fiscal deficit rate may still remain at a relatively high level, and policies such as local special debt may remain strong. In terms of funds, the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase, aiming to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the year, which is in line with the central bank's operating practices in previous years. Affected by multiple factors such as the unchanged interest rate in December, the bank's marginal capital cost rising rapidly, the real estate policy observation period, and the net interest margin at a historically low level, the LPR was "on hold" for four consecutive months in December. However, there may be a decline in the first quarter of next year.Judging from the technical aspects of and , the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen for seven consecutive years and has fluctuated above 3,000 points. The ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index have also continued to weaken, and the volume of the two markets has shrunk significantly. The epidemic has repeatedly disrupted market trading. However, under the background of "stability is at the forefront and seeking progress while maintaining stability", the continuous net inflow of northbound funds has boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the positive policy signals released by the Central Economic Work Conference, market confidence will continue to recover in the future. The market is expected to be volatile and repaired. Pay attention to changes in volume and energy, northbound capital flows, and the rotation of the sector. Pay attention to industries such as finance, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, medical biology, power equipment, and TMT.
Guosen Securities : The "inflection point" of financial data is approaching
Guosen Securities believes that the "inflection point" of financial data is approaching. The sharp weakening of the two major indicators of M2-M1 and Sherong-M2 scissor difference this month is more affected by short-term factors and is expected to gradually improve early next year. Overall, although the rebound in infections after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control has caused a periodic suppression of economic activities, the trend of transforming from "strong expectations" to "strong reality" next year will not change, and structural monetary policy tools will play a more important role in stabilizing growth, easing credit, and adjusting structures.
Industrial Securities : The market is expected to usher in a real recovery and once again enter the "win in chaos"
The market has suffered another impact recently: 1) Since mid-December, the domestic epidemic situation has once again impacted market sentiment. 2) After the economic work conference, the market’s expectations for policy easing have basically been realized, and concerns about the fundamentals of reality have returned. 3) In addition, the Bank of Japan’s adjustment of the yield curve has led to an increase in global interest rates, domestic New Year’s Eve disturbances, and the negative feedback effects of financial redemptions, which have also caused the overall market capital to remain relatively tight.
But the panic is temporary. As the epidemic gradually recedes from its peak, residents' lives further normalize, and policy easing continues to be implemented, Industrial believes that the market is expected to usher in a real recovery and once again enter "win in chaos".
BOC Securities: The domestic economy as a whole will be oriented towards recovery in 2023 Macroeconomic policies are also in the same direction as the recovery
As domestic epidemic prevention and control policies are relaxed, the number of confirmed cases nationwide has been on the rise this week, and the passenger volume of subways in major first- and second-tier cities has dropped significantly compared with the previous period. In the short term, the epidemic mainly affects the labor supply and the recovery of offline consumption scenes, and is expected to have a negative impact on economic data in December. Drawing on historical data from February 2020 and April 2022, the production-end industrial added value fell by 22.10% and 2.01% respectively month-on-month, and fixed asset investment decreased by 20.8% month-on-month respectively. 6% and a decrease of 0.97%. Social retail sales dropped by 10.77% month-on-month in January 2020 and 3.89% in March 2022. Considering that the impact of the epidemic in December was smaller than that in 2020 but greater than April 2022, as well as the shutdown of production before the Spring Festival holiday and the return of the population to the third and fourth tiers, it is expected that the employment growth, fixed investment and social retail sales data may once again fall into the negative growth range on a month-on-month basis. However, after the economic data bottomed out in December, the domestic economy will be generally recovering in 2023, and macro policies will also be in the same direction as the recovery. Although the current market has adjusted, we still maintain our optimistic view of RMB risk assets.
Debon Securities : Sales of new energy vehicles were stable in November. Pay attention to sodium battery new technologies
Pay attention to the new links in the sodium battery industry chain. Sodium batteries may enter the first year of mass production. In the context of high lithium prices, sodium battery materials have significant cost advantages. Sodium batteries and lithium batteries will be complementary in application scenarios. Sodium-lithium hybrid batteries can reduce battery factories' dependence on upstream lithium resources. Although the current technical indicators of sodium batteries are still slightly weaker than those of lithium batteries, industrialization progress is clear, and 2023 may be the first year of mass production.
Haitong Securities: Since the end of October, the market has entered an upward channel. It is currently only a short-term retracement in the upward period.
Currently, there are positive changes in the fundamentals, capital and other dimensions of A-shares. The market bottom has passed, and it is entering the upward channel in the early stages of the bull market .From the perspective of fundamental indicators, based on the experience of five market bottoms in 2005, 2008, 12, 16, and 19, we found that bottom reversals are accompanied by the stabilization of three or more of the five leading indicators. At present, most of my country's economic data have recovered. Four of the five major fundamental leading indicators (monetary policy, fiscal policy, manufacturing prosperity, and automobile sales cumulative year-on-year ) have steadily rebounded. In recent months, the cumulative year-on-year real estate sales area has also stabilized at the bottom. The rebound in fundamental indicators confirms that the W-shaped bottom formed by A-shares at the end of April and October is relatively solid. Looking forward to next year, the gradual increase in policies to stabilize growth will promote the recovery of macro and micro fundamentals. It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of all A shares in 2023 will increase by 10-15% year-on-year. In 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are expected to stop, and the power of domestic residents' asset allocation is gradually becoming apparent. Therefore, overseas liquidity and domestic micro-capitalization are expected to improve marginally. We predict that the incremental capital of A-shares in 2023 is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan. Driven by many positive changes, A-shares are entering the upward channel in the early stages of the bull market. The recent adjustment in the stock market is just a short retracement in the early stage of the bull market, so there is no need to worry too much. In addition, from a trading perspective, market transactions have shrunk significantly since this adjustment. On December 23, all A-share trading volume shrank by 50% from the November high, which may mean that the short-term downward momentum has significantly declined.
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