On December 23, LONGi Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan lowered the price of silicon wafers sold by about 20%. Longi and TCL Zhonghuan are the leaders in the field of wafers. The production capacity of these two companies accounts for half of the entire photovoltaic silicon wafer industry. They are all selling at reduced prices, indicating that the photovoltaic silicon wafers have overcapacity!
In 2022, LONGi Green Energy's silicon wafer production capacity is 150GW, TCL Central's is 140GW, and the total production capacity of major domestic silicon wafer manufacturers is roughly 678GW.
If the world's new photovoltaic installed capacity is 260GW this year, then the world's demand for photovoltaic silicon wafers is 327.6GW. In other words, the current production capacity of silicon wafer manufacturers is more than twice the demand! If the production expansion plans of silicon wafer manufacturers are followed, the total production capacity of domestic silicon wafer manufacturers will exceed 1,000GW in 2023, and overcapacity is obvious.
The upstream of silicon wafers is silicon material. When silicon material is in short supply, although the production capacity of silicon wafers is high, the output is not high, so the price of silicon wafers can keep rising. But now the surplus of silicon material is becoming more and more obvious. With more silicon material, the production of silicon wafers can easily increase, and the corresponding silicon wafers will also be prone to excess, which will continue to reduce prices. This is the price competition pressure currently faced by photovoltaic silicon wafers.
After the actual excess silicon material and the large price reduction, the production of silicon wafers, cell , and components will increase significantly, and the prices of most links will loosen. However, according to the agency's calculations, the gross profit of the component link will increase significantly, and the fundamentals of silicon wafer and cell gross profits are stable.