[About the author] Pinecone comes from a private equity champion team with a cumulative scale of 10 digits. 13 years of investment experience, good at bargain hunting, and restructuring. Currently, he is the manager of Sunshine Private Equity Fund.
The Bank of Japan announced that it would raise the 10-year government bond benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. Affected by this, the Japanese stock market once fell 3%, and narrowed slightly to 2.46% in late trading. However, the Japanese stock market did not affect A shares . Big A is in a weak cycle as usual, and the short-term emotional release is powerful. The market is expected to slowly return to rationality.
will take you to interpret the market
1 and technical analysis
the market It dropped a lot in two days, from 3226 to 3061 points in one breath. Now the market is quite hesitant. I personally think that a negative drop is not as good as a quick drop. A quick drop can quickly release risks. Since the early 3080 gap has been filled in the short term, the rising market in this round of market is basically dead and can only be treated as a shock.
is now just reaching 60 daily line , has the demand for oversold rebound in the short term, and the target position for the rebound is as shown in the figure below. The 30-minute K-line is about 3129 . A rapid decline is better than a negative decline. In September, it was a negative decline, and many stocks were hurt.
2. Hot spot analysis
Avoid covering losses in hot spots, because you see good performance on Monday The education sector fell by only 6 points on Tuesday, while the relatively strong real estate sector also fell sharply on Tuesday, including the Shenzhen local stocks that were extremely active on Monday afternoon. They also fell sharply on Tuesday, which shows that when the stock game is played, strong stocks in can easily make up for the losses in . In other words, strong stocks need to be avoided.
3. Looking forward to opportunities
Then I proposed on Monday that opportunities such as advanced packaging technology chipnet and agriculture are relatively certain, so today like Agricultural machinery and advanced packaging are indeed rising, but these small opportunities are difficult to grasp, and the market trend favors some companies that are not point-to-point or comprehensive, so the opportunities are more difficult to grasp. Later, I think the opportunities may still not be very certain, and may be more concentrated in the direction of annual report pre-increase .
On Tuesday, everyone saw that the annual report forecast of Xiongtao Shares was 1.35 times to 1.53 times. On Tuesday, hit the daily limit of . The market recognition of the annual report forecast is still quite high. If you find that there is an annual report forecast and the forecast increase is higher than expected, you can track it yourself first.
4. In terms of risks,
I just said it is much better. Strong stocks can easily make up for losses. Try to avoid them. Maybe everyone thinks that only strong stocks can make money. Money is driven by trends, but on the contrary, strong stocks can easily make up for losses in a weak market. The second is the annual report. If it is a company with that has flaws, we still have to focus on avoiding , because this year will definitely be the same as last year. Loss is not a big problem, but if there are flaws, it will be more troublesome.
In short, the market rebounded after falling to the MA60 line, but this rebound is more biased toward counterattacks. In the short term, focus on the support near 3129, focus on bottom-up opportunities such as annual report pre-increases, avoid strong stocks, and avoid strong stocks compensating for losses.
In terms of research,
, the market continued to quickly bottom out on Tuesday. At present, the market is relatively confused, and hot sectors and main lines are crazy. Crazy hammer, and fundamentals preferred companies, it is also difficult to follow the trend due to liquidity dilemma, the second wave of the shock market leader is more certain, research tracking, the " reverse osmosis membrane leader " listed company under the central enterprise CRRC Group will continue to expand the salt lake lithium extraction membrane business in the future.
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