Beijing held an important meeting in the past two days and issued many favorable policies. Investors are looking forward to the sharp rise of A-shares next week. The question is, can this major positive news really drive the rebound of A-shares?

In the past two days, Beijing held an important meeting and issued many favorable policies. Investors are looking forward to the sharp rise of A shares next week. The question is, can this major positive news really drive the rebound of A-shares?

first review the market trend of this week. Shanghai Stock Index opened on Monday 3206.95 points and closed on Friday 3167.86 points. The range rose by -1.22%. The ChiNext Index opened on Monday 2420.63 points and closed on Friday 2373.72 points, the range 1.94%. US stock Dow Jones Index closed at 32920.46 points up -1.66%, the S&P 500 closed at 3852.36 points up -2.09%, and Nasdaq closed at 10705.41 points up -2.72%. Judging from this week's data, A-shares are continuously adjusting, while US stocks are rising first and then falling. Anyway, they are all adjustments and there is no rebound.

Review the main performance of the market last week. The capital inflow and outflow before the holiday is as follows: [Note: This is the average increase in the sector, not the increase in the sector index]

From the market operation this week, the leading sectors with large trading volume are brewing ( Investment Merchants CSI Liquor Index (LOF)A) (145.2 billion), and pharmaceutical ( Huitianfu CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF Link (LOF) C ) (521.8 billion), food and beverage (104 billion), and commercial chain (125.5 billion), and the rise sectors with the turnover rate of (more than 10%) are hotel and catering (30.27%), tourism (20.18%), medicine (18.63%), daily chemicals (16.56%), commercial chain (13.47%), and food and beverage (10.81%). The main sectors in which funds flow into are obviously medicine, food and beverage ( Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF Connection C), and commercial chain ( E Fund Consumer Industry Stock ), and generally speaking, it is the big consumer sector;

leads the decline sector with a large trading volume ( Guotou UBS New Energy Hybrid C) (147.7 billion), Electrical Equipment ( Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index C) (271 billion), Chemical Industry (215.5 billion), Healthcare (170.2 billion), The decline sector with the highest turnover rate (more than 10%) is Healthcare (11.71%), and the main outflow of funds is Healthcare ( China-Europe Medical and Healthcare Hybrid C), which is also a large consumer sector; from this, it can be seen that the market is differentiated and divided.

Then, from the publicly available capital situation, northbound funds net bought 5.665 billion in the whole week, and financing balance (borrow money stock trading ) was mainly inflowed throughout the week, with inflow of 5.609 billion inflows; margin trading balance (selling stock shorting ) increased by -1.392 billion compared with last week. Overall, the capital market continued to improve this week, with domestic capital inflows of about 4 billion (nearly 10 billion inflows last week), and northbound capital inflows of about 5 billion (about 6 billion inflows last week). Although both funds are inflows in positively, the inflow rate is less than last week. There is an adjustment, indicating that the capital inflow must exceed one fixed value to maintain the stable index. If it is below this fixed value, it will weaken (subtext: there must be funds leaving the market).

This is easy to explain why the daily limit stock is getting fewer and fewer trading volume is getting smaller and smaller. Is there no good news this week? No, so the good news that appeared on the weekend can only be said that there are good conditions for the market to go. If funds continue to leave the market, even if northbound funds and financing funds continue to flow in but the inflow intensity is insufficient, they will continue to weaken and adjust. Some investors said that such a big positive will definitely flow in on Monday, and A-shares must rise! Sorry, this is just a guess, the success rate is only 50%, not real data derivation.

Before looking forward to A-shares next week, we will first review the market views of last week. At that time, we saw it this way:

The market is not short of funds, and there are also hot spots. The hot spots rotate too quickly, which is not conducive to the upward trend of the index. If the index rises, it still exists. Please do a high-selling and low-selling strategy in a structured market. The market core of the Shanghai Composite Index is a volatile market. It is okay to continue to rebound or bottom out and confirm support and then rise. The mid-term market is still worth looking forward to. The most noteworthy thing is that the weak rebound cannot chase the rise. If you are trapped after chasing the rise, it is easy to stand guard.The ChiNext Index fluctuates narrowly above the 5 weekly line . In fact, there is no difference between the market in October and November. It is still early to talk about the bull market in , so just sell high and buy low. Don’t ask me why I always sell high and buy low. This is the case in the market. Everyone “look at the food and food” (meaning adaptability). In terms of subject matter, funds flowed into the consumer sector this week, and volatile market + early rise + positive stimulus are not good things. Instead, we should beware of profit cashing out next week (excluding it). The real estate and automobiles mentioned last week may form a relay next week. This time, it is a choice of two, and it may be easier to choose the direction.

From the outlook of last week, the fluctuating market + hot spots are still the main characteristics. Perhaps this reason has caused the index to adjust. The choice of bottoming out of the Shanghai Composite Index to bottom out was a normal phenomenon last week. GEM has a narrow range of fluctuations. There is indeed profit-making cashing in hot spots. For example, traditional Chinese medicine, automobiles, and real estate have range fluctuations that first fall and then rise. There seems to be no fluctuations throughout the week, but doing a good job in the range selling high and buying low makes the profits good. Whether it is index, sector or individual stocks, they are weak fluctuations.

To sum up, I think I can look forward to it next week:

. The market is not without good news, but because the hot spots rotate too quickly, funds are at a loss to choose to leave the market. Assume that the hot sectors in the following week are still too fast (three hot spots a day: morning, noon, and late trading are different), it is estimated that the same is still the same as the dark drop; only when the hot spots continue to stabilize can it enter the normal sideways trading and even rebound.

, Shanghai Composite Index is still in a weak rebound state, with the upper resistance of the 60-week line, and the lower support is the 5-week line in disorderly oscillation within this range. It is a high probability event. If you want to buy low, the golden cross between the 5-week line and the 20-week line may have a relatively large support force (red platform). If you sell high, you have to wait for the angle to hit the 60-week line (it is still early). In principle, don’t chase high.

, GEM index has less fluctuations. This chart is easy to draw. Just draw the low point this year and the golden division line of the July high point. It is now at the normal pressure level of 38.2%, with no upward momentum (the actual positive line in December is less than that in November), and there is no selling pressure downward (the strength of the team line is also less than that in November), which is more like a horizontal disorderly fluctuation. It is not easy to break downward, and it is even more difficult to break upward. This is the reason why you can only sell high and buy low.

. In terms of subject matter, this week's funds flow into large consumption and out of large consumption, that is, the structural differentiation is too obvious. As long as the trading volume continues to be sluggish next week, it is estimated that the structured market will repeat itself (there are those in the same large sector, and some are those in the decline). If you are a short-term expert with a strong sense of rhythm, it is OK to compete for the Internet and win the rebound. If you are a mid-term player with a slow response to market rotation, lying down may be the only solution.

Save the flow: The weekend good news is really good news. It doesn’t make sense when the trading volume continues to shrink. It may also accelerate the exit of funds. First, look at in a weak fluctuating market with high selling and low buying ultra-short-term game.

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, the views are for reference only, and whether to operate according to ideas needs to be judged by investors.

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