In 2022, the stock market turned bull and bear, the "Mao Ning Group" fell from the altar, and the goddess Ge Lan of fund was also scolded and became a hot search.
Over the past year, most people have squatted in the corner to eat noodles and lick their wounds. Only a few people can eat some meat buns tooth-beating sacrifice , but fortunately it will be over soon.
Looking forward to 2023, we still need to make some plans. If you lose money, you can’t lose momentum. If you lose money, don’t lose confidence. We will double the profits of what we lost in 2022 in 2023.
2023 is destined to be an extraordinary year. The big crisis breeds great opportunities. A new round of wealth opportunities is about to set sail. If you miss it, you have to wait another 5 years.
1. The situation has evolved into a new stage
1. The US inflation fell at a high level, and interest rate hike tended to ease
US CPI value reached 9.1% in June, hitting a new high of more than 40 years, and fell to 7.1% in November. Inflation has declined for five consecutive months, forming a downward trend.
rate hike balance sheet reduction and the effect of oil prices falling gradually feedback to inflation data. In 2023, U.S. inflation will continue to fall, and aggressive interest rate hikes will shift to ease interest rate hikes, weakening its impact on the market.
When inflation falls back to normal value, Federal will end the interest rate hike, start a new round of monetary easing at the right time, promote economic growth, and form a positive driving force on the stock market.
2. Europe and Middle East turmoil is intensifying, and unexpected events may occur
Geopolitical and Energy crisis makes Europe turbulent. The Middle East has always been a powder keg. Nowadays, the game between major powers is becoming more and more intense, and the probability of a crisis event is not small.
3. China has fully liberalized, and economic recovery has become the main tone
"New Ten Regulations" are released, which means that China has chosen to protect the economy and promote growth. After the first wave of "big colds" peak impact, social production and life are expected to gradually normalize, and post-epidemic recovery will become China's main tone next year. By then, with its huge market and social background, China will once again become the locomotive of the world economic recovery. This time node may be until the second half of next year.
4. Global economic recession is developing in depth, debt crisis may erupt
In 2022, the whole world has encountered once in a decades of large inflation, and Global central banks have raised interest rates to curb inflation.
's continuous monetary tightening makes the capital chain required for 's economy to run "crunchy".
Currently, the global debt scale exceeds more than 300 trillion US dollars, which is 3.5 times that of the world's GDP. It is very amazing. Continuous interest rate hikes will significantly push up the debt cost .
In the economic downturn, the ability of enterprises to create cash flow will be greatly weakened, and the high debt costs and tight monetary policy will break the capital chain of some high-debt companies and face the risk of bankruptcy.
Countries with high foreign debt and insufficient foreign exchange reserves will be forced to use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate when the foreign exchange reserves are consumed. Debt crisis will break out when the foreign exchange reserves are consumed.
The global economic situation next year is not optimistic. Some countries or giant companies may burst into a "big thunder" in your unexpected posture, which scares the capital market "a big jump".
Summary: The situation next year will be complex and changeable. The global economy will fall into a quagmire and a debt crisis may occur. Can China be independent? may wish to discuss it.
I tend to be optimistic about investment. It’s not that I think the stock market will rise sharply next year, but that if a crisis really breaks out and the stock market smashes a big pit, it will form an excellent medium-term bottom in the next few years. This is a major strategic opportunity and should not be missed. Once you miss it, you have to wait for more than 5 years for . If there is no crisis, it is also a good thing, and the stock market will usher in more opportunities.
2. New changes have occurred in the stock market ecology
1. The hierarchy of the valuation system
Before 2016, the major stock indexes and sectors rose and fell together, and the valuations were synchronized. The time nodes of the top and bottom would not be too far apart.
After 2016, the market valuation system became chaotic and began to hierarchical. From 2016 to 2018, the core assets , the big blue chip rose slowly, while the , the GEM and the SME Board continued to adjust, opening up each other's valuations.
2019-2021, institutions have become increasingly crazy about hype about core assets, until February 2021, when they have broken up, and the big blue chips are the first to take the lead. After
, new energy and pro-cyclical hype became the new targets of group speculation, and the ChiNext did not start to truly be in December 2012.
time nodes are misaligned and the industry's prosperity is separated, resulting in a clear hierarchical structure of the valuation system of the entire market.
Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 are very low and have very sufficient adjustments; while the ChiNext is still at a medium and high level, and the adjustment is not sufficient.
The valuations of media, Internet, communications, T, medical care, etc. are at a low level and are very sufficiently adjusted; while new energy, liquor, coal, etc. are still in the medium and high level areas, and the adjustment is not sufficient.
valuation hierarchy has led to a huge gap in the cost-effectiveness of the industry's investment, and coupled with the industry's prosperity and cyclicality, it makes it more difficult to invest.
For example: a high-prosperity industry with a high valuation, and no advantage in investment cost performance;
has a low valuation, and the industry is not prosperous, but the investment cost performance is relatively advantageous.
Therefore, the current market of needs to conduct sufficient research on the industry fundamentals , development potential, future expectations, investment cost-effectiveness, safety margins, etc., and formulate a relatively scientific holding combination plan.
2. Main line hype group
Currently A shares is the most typical feature of institutional group hype. Nowadays, institutions are growing stronger and stronger, and their dominance and voice are becoming stronger. Small scattered can only follow the trend in the market.
Institutional group speculation has become the main driving force of the A-share market, as well as the initiator and leader of hot topics.
Institutional group speculation has become a scenic spot in A-shares. We cannot avoid it and need to enjoy it. Since this is the case, you must know the three major logics of hype in institutions:
, one is in line with policy orientation;
, the industry is in high prosperity;
, the third is to have fundamentals and valuation advantages.
One sentence summary: There is market logic to do stories and draw big pie for endorsement .
3. Market tearing normalization
Extremely tearing and differentiation between stock indexes, sectors, and stocks . This is the case now, and it is still the case in the future. This is the product of stock market expansion and institutional group speculation. A meal plate weighing a few taels can be swung with one hand; a large millstone weighing hundreds of pounds cannot be swung even if you use the power of the vast world.
The sectors that are grouped by institutions can soar, such as coal, new energy, automobiles, etc. last year; the sectors that are neglected by institutions can fall to the eighteen levels of hell, such as media, Internet, environmental protection, etc. last year.
market tear has become normalized. It is a time to plan any industry and wait for the bull market to come to make big money.
4. Financing process is accelerating
Let’s look at the development history of A-shares, and you will know why China’s economy has developed rapidly, while A-shares have been struggling for 3,000 points for many years.
has expanded sharply:
has been used from the first to 1,000, and it has been used for nearly 10 years;
has been used from 1,000 to 2,000, and it has been used for nearly 10 years;
has been used from 2,000 to 3,000, and it has been used for nearly 6 years;
has been used from 3,000 to 4,000, and it has been used for nearly 4 years;
has been used from 4,000 to 5,000, and it has been used for only 2 years.
registration system is accelerating, and the expansion speed of A-shares may increase in the future.
financing scale continues to increase:
IPO financing in 2019 was 253.1 billion, and major shareholders reduced their holdings by 391.3 billion;
IPO financing in 2020 was 479.2 billion, and major shareholders reduced their holdings by 697 billion;
IPO financing in 2021 was 542.6 billion, and major shareholders reduced their holdings by 620.1 billion;
As of 12.5 in 2022, IPO financing was 546.6 billion, which will exceed 560 billion for the whole year, ranking first in the world. The accumulated data on the reduction of major shareholders' holdings has not yet been released. Let's refer to the data for the first half of :
old stock refinancing 380 billion;
major shareholders' holdings reduced by 247 billion;
stamp duty of 159.9 billion.
Endless IPOs, refinancing of old stocks, major shareholders’ share reduction, stamp duty, and continuous blood draw from the stock market, the market is getting bigger and bigger, but the scale of funds participating in the market has not increased by the same scale. It is impossible to have a full-scale bull market .
In this bull market after 2019, the increase in of the Shanghai Composite Index is the smallest in the history of A-shares in more than 30 years. The fundamental reason is that A-shares are too fat now and the weightlifters can no longer move. It can be said that since , A-shares have become a structural bull market for . Don’t expect a full bull market in anymore. It has become history. In order to have a full-scale bull market, it will be difficult to reappear in the grand event of a full-scale bull market unless the assets of the whole nation are transferred from real estate and savings to the stock market.
3. The main investment line shows a new atmosphere
1. Valuation advantages main line
valuation advantages, growth advantages and certainty advantages are the three most important core elements of long-term investment layout . Valuation is the cornerstone, valuation is a stable machine, and valuation advantages bring about a margin of safety.
0 or above 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 components are the big white horses and big blue chips that are oversold . This is the representative of China's core assets. After more than a year of sharp drop in , the valuation bubble has been fully squeezed. Once the situation improves next year, institutions will increase their allocation efforts.
The index ETF corresponding to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are already very good long-term investment targets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. The valuation of the previous low points corresponds to the historical lows for more than 10 years, and the investment cost-effectiveness is very outstanding. The surge in the insurance sector in
This wave of surge is because the valuation advantage has been recognized by funds and the fundamentals have improved expectations.
2. The main line of certainty advantages
The reason why pharmaceutical and medical care and big consumption frequently appear in the market index has reached new highs in all bull markets is that it has solid fundamentals, great development potential, and high industry certainty.
It can be foreseen that in the next bull market, pharmaceuticals, medical care, food and beverages, smart appliances, etc. will still perform well.
The industry certainty of the pharmaceutical and medical industry itself is very high. After the full liberalization, it will further release market demand and promote industry development.
Big consumption has a huge market unique to China, so there is no problem with industry certainty. In the context of a global economic downturn, expanding domestic demand is a must-have option for policies.
3. Main line of growth advantages
New energy ( photovoltaic , wind power, etc.), new energy vehicles , liquor and other sectors with growth advantages are still at medium and high levels, and the current cost-effectiveness of investment is not outstanding enough. Therefore, it is estimated that it will be difficult to perform in the first half of the next bull market, and it will be possible to perform in the second half.
4. Independent and controllable Technology main line
Technology is the primary productive force, the policy orientation is very clear, and the support is unprecedented. Moreover, the technology sector has its own halo special effects, which will bring various themes to attract market firepower, and will naturally not be absent from the bull market.
communication 5G, semiconductor chip , software, IT equipment, information technology, digital economy , etc. may have a greater performance in the next round of market conditions.
5. Dilemma Reversal Main line of industry recovery
Media, the Internet, and games are deeply affected by the epidemic, the industry is at a low point, and the investment cost-effectiveness is very high. After the full liberalization, the economy and life will gradually normalize in the second half of next year. These industries are expected to usher in a reversal of difficulties and growth, and the industries will gradually get out of the trough and move towards recovery.
The hype after the epidemic will become one of the brightest main lines in the stock market next year . Currently, the hype of hotels, catering, tourism, etc. is just appetizers. These two sectors are too small to accommodate much capital. Next year will be the highlight.
or above is only personal opinion and has no guiding significance.
Adhere to in-depth originality, adhere to independent thinking, and insist on giving real, objective and valuable content and opinions to fans. Please give me a thumbs up!
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