Preface
2022 gradual end. This is a very difficult year for many investors - A-share market performed sluggishly, from the beginning of the year to date, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by more than 20%, and ChiNext Index fell by more than 28%.
Recently, with the changes in related factors, such as the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy of new crown , the introduction of financial support for real estate policies, the gradual end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, etc., the market is regaining confidence.
Below, we will focus on explaining and analyzing the impact of the introduction of real estate-related policies on real estate companies and the challenges that real estate companies still face, and share some of our views on the current A-share market:
1
Some challenges facing Chinese real estate companies?
Recently released 16 financial credit support real estate items, private enterprise bond financing support tools, and liberalization of equity financing have formed a "three arrows to launch" trend in stabilizing real estate financing, bond , and equity financing, and real estate stocks have also improved significantly in recent times.
It is obvious that the country's policy support for real estate companies is strengthening, so capital market also heard it, and real estate stocks can see a significant increase. However, here I want to analyze the challenges facing Chinese real estate listed companies from the perspective of data.
First, real estate sales revenue is generally showing a continuous downward trend . According to data from Caiyi.com, among all real estate listed companies in A-share , residential real estate accounts for more than 80%, which means that residential sales account for the largest proportion of real estate sales in the whole society.
From the current development status of listed residential real estate companies, it can be seen that the sales of residential real estate have dropped significantly in the past year. On the one hand, it is due to the impact of epidemic control measures, and another factor is that China has entered the real situation of population aging. Real estate residential consumption has entered the stage of rational consumption from the past urgent needs, which is a challenge that we must face.
Second, we must understand the current problems facing the overall capital structure of Chinese real estate companies . We know that the debt-to-asset ratio of real estate developers has remained at around 79% for a long time. Ten years ago, in the funding structure of Chinese real estate companies, the source of own capital, , debt financing sources, and social funding sources (society funds mainly occupy prepayments for customers' house sales and the account of upstream material suppliers) was roughly one-third of each share structure.
As of the third quarter report of 2022, the proportion of capital source structure of real estate enterprises was about 21%, and the proportion of debt financing was about 26%, down about 8% from ten years ago, while the proportion of social funds accounted for as high as 53%. In other words, the main source of funds for real estate enterprises in recent years came from social funds, and now the overall asset-liability ratio of A-share real estate developers remains around 79%.
If the country wants to consider improving the financing structure of listed real estate companies from the capital structure, it needs to raise about 1.63 trillion yuan through equity financing; debt financing, such as banks and issuing corporate bonds, needs to solve at least 1.1 trillion yuan. The two sources of funds account for as high as 2.73 trillion yuan, so as to replace the unreasonable capital structure of social capital account.
So China's capital market has a long way to go. Under the current background of the country's implementation of monetary prudent policies, more financing channels may need to be solved through the capital market. You may need to understand this situation.
2
Some of our views on the current A-share market
We expect that the challenges faced by China's capital market in the future will be really not light.
On the one hand, we must get out of the shadow of the impact of the epidemic on China's economy as soon as possible.On the other hand, also needs the market to regain confidence, increase consumer spending, and support the healthy development of China's real economy. We believe that the national level should continue to introduce economic stimulus policies to enhance market confidence.
We are more optimistic about consumption sector . Because with the relaxation of the lockdown policy, we expect to bring a significant recovery to the non-large consumption field. is because this type of consumption is small, and many industries are closely related to people's livelihood. If the relaxation of the control policy is combined with the consumption stimulus policies in various places, such non-large consumption-related industries will recover significantly, and the relevant stock is expected to benefit.
and large-scale consumption, such as automobile consumption, especially electric vehicle consumption, , is actually an important cornerstone for China's economy to maintain stability this year and will continue to maintain reasonable growth with the support of national policies.
Although real estate consumption will take some time to recover, what can be seen is that the risk of accelerating downward trend in real estate sales will be curbed and the market atmosphere will gradually warm up.
The financial sector will inevitably benefit from the reduction of bad debt pressure and the expansion of loan scale, leading to the upward performance of financial enterprises.
There are many other sectors that are optimistic about. It can be said that the most difficult period in the investment market of should have passed. It is meaningless to continue to be bearish at the moment.
- END -
Risk warning: 5 Any information and information mentioned in this article is only expressed by the author's personal opinions or statements about specific events, and is for readers' reference only. The company does not guarantee the completeness, accuracy and timeliness of the views or statements in the article, and does not make any guarantees , and does not constitute recommendations or investment advice. The relevant information is for reference only and does not constitute an advertisement, sale offer, or recommendations for trading any securities , fund or investment products. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. Investors shall bear the risks and consequences of investing on this basis at their own discretion.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-