has not been peaceful in the past week. Since the US Department of Commerce issued new sanctions on the 7th, everyone has been concerned about the impact on our semiconductor industry. At the beginning, there was some panic. On the 13th, the United States held a briefing on the new regulations. At the meeting, , the United States, , further explained the definition and exemption conditions of Americans. It is shameless. Combined with some widely circulated interpretations before, we took this opportunity to sort out and expand the key information.
first draws eight key points:
- From design to manufacturing, the limits of full industrial chain are used for high-end chips of supercomputer project, high-computing chip ;
- high-end chip definition: logic chips with processes below 16nm/14nm, DRAM chips with DRAM chips with 18nm and below, NAND chips with 128 layers and above;
- high-computing chip definition: interface transmission speed ≥600G/s; total computing power sum of single chip ≥4800TOPS;
- effective time: high-computing chip: 10.7; supercomputing related: 10.12; Semiconductor manufacturing/equipment related: 10.21;
- used to restrict physical objects, but this time the human factor was added, that is, US employees cannot appear in any link in the industrial chain . The US Department of Commerce also emphasized the definition of American employees: people who are in the United States can also be considered , regardless of whether they have naturalization or permanent residence; the basic conditions for companies that can apply for export exemption: headquarters cannot be in mainland China ; this also means that foreign companies/Taiwanese enterprises in China can apply for one year's export exemption;
- technology can only be reverse output: things made by China can be used in the United States, but things in the United States cannot be used in the United States (I have never seen such a shameless person...) Therefore, semiconductor companies with stable overseas market share in their revenue have good impact resistance potential, and they even continue to impact the research and development of top process products through overseas projects. But this type of company is really rare. As far as I know, chip companies/IP companies that have acquired overseas assets have real and sustainable output streams. Those who are interested can check which ones are, so I won’t go into details.
- UVL is called an unverified list. The units on the list need to prove their "innocence" within a certain period of , otherwise they will enter the final entity list. How do you view the definition of
high-end chips and high-computing chips?
Strictly speaking, domestic AI related, driverless chips, and GPGPU companies actually ship products that basically cannot meet the standards defined by high computing power chips. Some companies even fool investors into using PPT products, so the impact on them is actually good. Moreover, they are still in a crazy inclination stage, and many companies may not be able to pass the market qualities. For the time being, the shameless American Empire does not need to end up in person. Moreover, they are crazy about spending money, massive patents, IP procurement, EDA procurement, and the huge costs of advanced process filming. The United States is actually a great beneficiary. .
. The three major components used in computers: CPU, GPU, GPU, and memory chip independent research and development/domestic replacement. Although their market share in the consumer market is still very low, the R&D process can also bring great economic benefits to the US imperial examination, but it has great strategic value and is the real target of the US imperial attack. (Special AI chips are the icing on the cake. Of course, it is best to have them, and it is not impossible to have them.) To put it into consideration, all chips with processes below 16nm/14nm correspond to the research and development of CPU and GPUs, Loongson , Zhaoxin, Haiguang, Feiteng , Jing Jiawei and other companies that are more familiar to everyone. They have been on the entity list before, especially in the past two years. The more popular Haiguang and Feiteng companies have obtained the architecture from AMD, ARM. The corresponding process of the product is 16nm/14nm/7nm of TSMC/ Samsung . Affected by this, shipment and R&D must basically be stopped and wait-and-see; Jing Jiawei is a little better, and the main shipment process looks like 28nm, but the research and development of high-spec products will be affected.
Before many companies affected by sanctions adopted the third-party streaming agent model adopted by many companies that were affected by sanctions was also difficult to continue due to further restrictions, at least in the short term.Taiwan's Alchip, known for its one-stop service for chip backend + die + packaging and testing, has also indirectly demonstrated its impact in the past five days.
memory chip
18nm and below DRAM chip: Hefei Changxin (mainly 19nm products are mass-produced and shipped, 17nm under development)
128 layer NAND chip: Yangtze Memory (a huge blow, 128 layer NAND has been shipped)
In recent years, our memory chips, especially NAND chips, have actually had a very good development momentum. Although we have taken some detours, we have actually shipped and have had a good market reaction. The prices of mid- and low-end storage have fallen to the naked eye in recent years, and have even affected the high-end market. For example, Samsung's Pro series solid-state hard drive , from 960pro, 970pro to 980pro, the price continues to be halved.
Of course, there are many reasons. For example, the collapse of the mining machine market on the demand side has caused the overall market demand to sluggish, while the mid- and low-end markets on the supply side have been so popular that the Red Sea has forced many high-end products to lower prices, and maintain shipments through dimensional reduction strikes. The so-called "talk about volume first and then bargaining" is to burn money to kill the opponent. At the same time, Micron , Samsung, SK Hynix have all reported that it expects to reduce production and significantly reduce capital expenditures. It is actually easy to understand to rely on other means to suppress it.
Overreactions of American companies:
At present, it seems that many American equipment and material companies have a bit excessive reactions. Of course, the above guidance has been issued, and it is normal to add dramas and increase performances at the execution levels at the grassroots level of local governments. From the internal emails in the United States, we can see that specific services are not allowed, and the companies targeted are chip manufacturers of advanced processes. However, their current reaction is to remove them all. Therefore, the industry's emotions have now adjusted from panic confusion to wait-and-see confusion.
Everything is not that optimistic, but not that pessimistic either.
affects
This sanction is an expansion and strengthening of previous sanctions, basically to the flesh.
The U.S. current goal is very clear:
1. Restrict China's chip manufacturing (manufacturing end, equipment end, material end) ;
2. Restrict the development of supercomputers and related AI chips from the entire industry chain (design, manufacturing, equipment, material end) . The 31 new entities added to UVL are all related to it.
can be seen that it is a double blow to manufacturing, equipment and material end . This is true, especially domestic equipment manufacturers, semiconductor materials merchants, their technology and management core are all returned Chinese Americans. The US empire's shameless use of their identity this time limits their participation. I really don't know how these companies should overcome this difficulty.
It should be said that the design of chips below 14nm is not completely restricted by . Companies that are not on the entity list, chips that are not used for supercomputers that are under 14nm processes can be cut in overseas foundries, but cannot be manufactured locally in our local areas because the manufacturing of chips below 14nm chips is restricted.
last
The United States is hitting our semiconductor industry towards the future of advanced processes and high-performance chips.
As a practitioner, I think the technical commanding heights are important, but many capital hot money are not very good at it, and they think it is thankless and not cool. Those industrial chips, high-end analog chips, and mixed signal chips that are made using mature processes are actually far from enough.
To put it bluntly, some directions have even been on the spot for so many years, and these are the main forces that have caused automobile factories and industrial equipment factories to stop work due to chip shortages. Really, if we can make 22nm/28nm, or even 40nm, 90nm, and 130um process products with good manufacturing capabilities, not to mention thoroughly, even if we achieve 60 points, it will be enough to become a chip powerhouse. Look at Germany and France Bosch , Infineon , STMicroelectron , all of them are boring. The price increase power is completely in your hands. You can only pay for the price no matter how much you sell. This is the power of technical barriers.
and other basics are the straights of the chip track. Even the straights cannot catch up, and they have even been pulled several laps. I really don’t know what the confidence and significance of overtaking on the curve lies.
Looking forward, a great civilized country, technological independence and even independence are inevitable results. There is really a lot of things we can do. There is nothing we can do. That is the real darkest moment. If we can slightly remove some of the impetuousness that has been burned over the years and a little more down-to-earth precipitation. There is always hope in life.
ends with Yu Hua's words: people live for living themselves, not for anything other than living. should do whatever you want.
#I am creating the second issue of Toutiao#
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