Review of the first three quarters of 2022, the market fluctuated continuously and investment was more difficult. How to seize the investment opportunities in the last quarter of this year? Recently, star fund managers of Huaan, 0,000 , Haifutong, HSBC Jinxin, SPDB Morgan , Bodao and other public funds spoke out, looking forward to the fourth quarter investment strategy. In terms of the stock market of
, the A shares market in the first three quarters was extremely different, with only the coal and petroleum and petrochemical industries closing higher. Fund managers generally believe that the risk release of A-shares after experiencing fluctuations and bottoming is expected to come to an end, and value and growth may have a certain repair trend.
In terms of the bond market, unlike the overall decline of the stock market, although the bond market has occasionally adjusted, bond yields are showing a downward trend. Fund managers believe that the current bond yields have reflected many positive factors in macro policies and capital, and the short-term bond market is likely to be in a volatile pattern. With expectations of recession in overseas economies and suppression of exports to China, long-term interest rates may usher in a rare strategic allocation period in the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year.
Stock market: Risk release is expected to come to an end
In the first three quarters of 2022, A-shares staged a "roller coaster" market. As of the end of September, the market had once again shrunk and bottomed out to compete for 3,000 points. At the same time, sector rotation accelerated, and many popular tracks retreated sharply. Huang Hai, deputy general manager and investment director of
0,000 funds, performed very well this year. As of the end of the third quarter, the three funds he managed had won the top three of equity-oriented funds . Regarding the market in the fourth quarter, Huang Hai believes that "after experiencing fluctuations and bottoming out, the rise of A-shares will gradually unfold."
Huang Hai believes that the decline in A-shares in the early stage is mainly due to the tightening of overseas liquidity and the release of expected risks of economic recession caused by this. Since June, the domestic economy has shown a slow recovery trend. In addition to the implementation of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States in September, the pressure of interest rate hikes is expected to begin to ease marginally after the pressure of overseas economic recession increases, and the release of in A-share market is expected to come to an end.
"The current market risk premium level is basically the same as in April this year, and the volatility is lower than in the previous period. Therefore, compared with April, the current investment time of the A-share market may face lower risks and are more attractive." Lu Bin, investment director and fund manager of HSBC Jinxin Fund, said.
In Lu Bin's view, although there are many unknown factors in the third quarter, including overseas , Fed , interest rate hikes beyond expectations, etc., all have had a certain impact on exports, consumption, and investment, resulting in weakening market sentiment, the fourth quarter is often the time when policy changes next year and industry and company development goals are clear, and the capital market often reflects next year's changes and expectations in advance in the fourth quarter.
Therefore, he believes that with the clarity of some core policies, the market will gradually see the future investment direction and main line after adjustment. The market is clearing its clouds and we should embrace change at the moment.
Zhou Xuejun, director of the Public Equity Investment Department of Haifutong Fund, conveyed confidence to investors from the macroeconomic perspective. He pointed out that at present, my country's economy is in a state of gradually bottoming out and stabilizing overall, infrastructure investment maintains a relatively stable countercyclical bottoming role. Fiscal policy mainly uses this year's special bonds well and is also relatively loose. The focus in the next few months is to further transmit from loose currency to loose credit. In addition, the yield of US bonds will usher in a peak and decline in the future. At that time, the interest rate spread of China-US will begin to be repaired, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment on the domestic economy and finance will gradually weaken. "If we have confidence in the domestic economy, there are still many structural opportunities in the capital market." Zhou Xuejun said.
sector: Value and growth may have certain repairs. Although fund managers generally give a not-pessimistic statement, in terms of sectors, fund managers have certain differences in the choices for growth and value, cyclical manufacturing and technological growth.
Zhou Xuejun believes that in the context of China's relatively weak recovery and the United States' slow recession, due to the slow downward trend of commodity , the overall chance of cyclical manufacturing may not be particularly great.Relatively speaking, he is more optimistic about new energy, semiconductor and other directions in the growth of technology.
"The main direction of new energy is still the top priority of our strategy. Although the demand for wind power, photovoltaic , batteries and materials has fluctuated a certain amount of room for long-term growth. We are currently paying more attention to the subdivided directions of good supply and demand relationships, and stocks with outstanding competitiveness or leading technology. The downstream of electronic semiconductors has been relatively weak in recent years, so the opportunities in this direction are structural. We mainly focus on the domestic substitution opportunities of semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials , and electronic components. In addition, automotive chips, power chips, etc. related to new energy in electronic semiconductors also have industrial investment opportunities." Zhou Xuejun said. Du Meng, deputy general manager and investment director of Morgan SIPG, said that he is more optimistic about the growth space of growth assets. To be precise, those industries with large long-term development space, especially high-quality companies with global competitiveness and able to participate in the global market; from the perspective of industry prosperity, new energy and photovoltaics are still leading in all industries.
On the one hand, from the perspective of demand, the demand in domestic and overseas markets is growing rapidly. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in traditional energy prices brought about by geopolitical conflicts, it further highlights the necessity and cost-effectiveness of developing new energy; on the other hand, China has established its dominant position in the global industrial chain in the fields of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and is expected to continue to expand its share in China and the world. The advantages of this industrial chain are difficult to transfer.
, but Huang Hai believes that the value style in the fourth quarter is relatively dominant. On the one hand, the uncertainty of the overseas economy's downturn increased in the fourth quarter, and some corresponding growth stocks with a high proportion of export orders and manufacturing-oriented growth stocks may face marginal weakness on the profit side, while the value sector is mainly based on domestic demand and has a low valuation, which can better cope with the impact of uncertainty; on the other hand, overseas will still face pressure from high inflation and interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter, and as domestic policies to stabilize growth continue to exert force, economic momentum will tend to stabilize, which is beneficial to the varieties of value styles.
Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, Huang Hai said that his portfolio style will still tend to be value products with low valuations, high dividends, and relatively stable profit expectations. He is relatively optimistic about the energy sector and real estate leaders. The former continues to benefit from the continued exceeding expectations of global energy inflation, while the latter benefits from the expectations of domestic policy relaxation and the improvement of the industry structure.
"In the fourth quarter, as the market repairs excessive pessimistic expectations of the economy, value and growth may have certain repairs, and the market performance may be relatively balanced; in the medium and long term, the main line of the stock market will still develop according to the relative level of the industry's prosperity. The internal prosperity of the growth industry in 2023 is likely to continue to differentiate, focusing on finding sub-industry where the industry's prosperity is reversed at the bottom, or marginally improving and exceeding expectations next year. At present, we focus on related opportunities such as post-epidemic consumption repair chain, new energy, military industry and TMTh." Zou Weina, senior director of the Absolute Return Investment Department of Huaan Fund, said.
Bond market: Long-term interest rates may usher in a strategic allocation period
In contrast, in the bond market, in the first three quarters of 2022, the market expects to sway between loose currency and loose credit. Given that the mechanism of loose currency to loose credit is not usually smooth for the time being, overall, bond yields are showing a volatile downward trend.
Zou Weina believes that the current yield curves of interest-rate bonds and medium- and high-grade credit bonds are mostly below the historical 10% quantile, which has reflected many positive factors in macro policies and capital. The short-term bond market is likely to be a volatile pattern. To break the volatile market, new variables need to be found. Changes in liquidity or the effectiveness of stable growth policies are factors worth observing. Chen Lianquan, director of fixed income investment at Bodao Fund, gave a relatively optimistic view. He believes that the domestic economic situation is the main influence of the bond market, and it can be divided into two parts: stable growth in the short-term and potential growth in the medium-term.
With the recent steady growth, some upstream and infrastructure-oriented and construction-oriented economic indicators have begun to rebound, and interest rates have also begun to rebound; on the other hand, observing the consumption during the National Day holiday, the average daily passenger volume has dropped by 36.4% compared with 2021 and 58.1% compared with 2019. The potential growth level of the economy has been suppressed by the stage, and the speed of currency circulation and economic risk preferences have also declined, and this is the source of liquidity blockage.
In addition, Chen Lianquan also pointed out that the premise for the Fed's complete turn is the rise in unemployment rate and the decline in inflation, and the premise is the US economic recession. Before the US recession, other overseas economies must first recession, which may substantially suppress China's export prosperity in the future. From this perspective, in the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year, long-term interest rates may usher in a rare strategic allocation period.
Editor: Lingen
Proofreading: Yang Lilin
Relatively speaking, he is more optimistic about new energy, semiconductor and other directions in the growth of technology."The main direction of new energy is still the top priority of our strategy. Although the demand for wind power, photovoltaic , batteries and materials has fluctuated a certain amount of room for long-term growth. We are currently paying more attention to the subdivided directions of good supply and demand relationships, and stocks with outstanding competitiveness or leading technology. The downstream of electronic semiconductors has been relatively weak in recent years, so the opportunities in this direction are structural. We mainly focus on the domestic substitution opportunities of semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials , and electronic components. In addition, automotive chips, power chips, etc. related to new energy in electronic semiconductors also have industrial investment opportunities." Zhou Xuejun said. Du Meng, deputy general manager and investment director of Morgan SIPG, said that he is more optimistic about the growth space of growth assets. To be precise, those industries with large long-term development space, especially high-quality companies with global competitiveness and able to participate in the global market; from the perspective of industry prosperity, new energy and photovoltaics are still leading in all industries.
On the one hand, from the perspective of demand, the demand in domestic and overseas markets is growing rapidly. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in traditional energy prices brought about by geopolitical conflicts, it further highlights the necessity and cost-effectiveness of developing new energy; on the other hand, China has established its dominant position in the global industrial chain in the fields of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and is expected to continue to expand its share in China and the world. The advantages of this industrial chain are difficult to transfer.
, but Huang Hai believes that the value style in the fourth quarter is relatively dominant. On the one hand, the uncertainty of the overseas economy's downturn increased in the fourth quarter, and some corresponding growth stocks with a high proportion of export orders and manufacturing-oriented growth stocks may face marginal weakness on the profit side, while the value sector is mainly based on domestic demand and has a low valuation, which can better cope with the impact of uncertainty; on the other hand, overseas will still face pressure from high inflation and interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter, and as domestic policies to stabilize growth continue to exert force, economic momentum will tend to stabilize, which is beneficial to the varieties of value styles.
Therefore, in terms of overall configuration, Huang Hai said that his portfolio style will still tend to be value products with low valuations, high dividends, and relatively stable profit expectations. He is relatively optimistic about the energy sector and real estate leaders. The former continues to benefit from the continued exceeding expectations of global energy inflation, while the latter benefits from the expectations of domestic policy relaxation and the improvement of the industry structure.
"In the fourth quarter, as the market repairs excessive pessimistic expectations of the economy, value and growth may have certain repairs, and the market performance may be relatively balanced; in the medium and long term, the main line of the stock market will still develop according to the relative level of the industry's prosperity. The internal prosperity of the growth industry in 2023 is likely to continue to differentiate, focusing on finding sub-industry where the industry's prosperity is reversed at the bottom, or marginally improving and exceeding expectations next year. At present, we focus on related opportunities such as post-epidemic consumption repair chain, new energy, military industry and TMTh." Zou Weina, senior director of the Absolute Return Investment Department of Huaan Fund, said.
Bond market: Long-term interest rates may usher in a strategic allocation period
In contrast, in the bond market, in the first three quarters of 2022, the market expects to sway between loose currency and loose credit. Given that the mechanism of loose currency to loose credit is not usually smooth for the time being, overall, bond yields are showing a volatile downward trend.
Zou Weina believes that the current yield curves of interest-rate bonds and medium- and high-grade credit bonds are mostly below the historical 10% quantile, which has reflected many positive factors in macro policies and capital. The short-term bond market is likely to be a volatile pattern. To break the volatile market, new variables need to be found. Changes in liquidity or the effectiveness of stable growth policies are factors worth observing. Chen Lianquan, director of fixed income investment at Bodao Fund, gave a relatively optimistic view. He believes that the domestic economic situation is the main influence of the bond market, and it can be divided into two parts: stable growth in the short-term and potential growth in the medium-term.
With the recent steady growth, some upstream and infrastructure-oriented and construction-oriented economic indicators have begun to rebound, and interest rates have also begun to rebound; on the other hand, observing the consumption during the National Day holiday, the average daily passenger volume has dropped by 36.4% compared with 2021 and 58.1% compared with 2019. The potential growth level of the economy has been suppressed by the stage, and the speed of currency circulation and economic risk preferences have also declined, and this is the source of liquidity blockage.
In addition, Chen Lianquan also pointed out that the premise for the Fed's complete turn is the rise in unemployment rate and the decline in inflation, and the premise is the US economic recession. Before the US recession, other overseas economies must first recession, which may substantially suppress China's export prosperity in the future. From this perspective, in the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year, long-term interest rates may usher in a rare strategic allocation period.
Editor: Lingen
Proofreading: Yang Lilin
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