In the past two days, many people have been cheering for the surge in the external market, and are all depicting the prospect of the surge in A shares after the holiday. I won’t dream in the daytime. I’d better do basic analysis work steadily. A fan friend suggested that I analyze the post-holiday trend of the oil sector, which happened to be part of my pre-holiday plan. Today, I will analyze and predict the post-holiday trend of the oil sector, and explain from several aspects why the oil sector is the mainstay of A-shares. I will share it with you.
first, why is the oil sector the mainstay of A-shares after the holiday? This is because:
First, from its weekly trend, the oil index is the only industry index among the devastated A-shares that maintain a rising channel on the weekly trend. Since February 19, 2021, the oil index has opened sharply above the 60-week moving average. In more than a year, it has been based on the 60-week moving average and fluctuating upward. At the end of December last year, the 60-week moving average began to cross the 120-week line. The entire trend has been confirmed. The 60-week line is currently approaching the 250-week moving average. If this process is completed, the oil index will move out of a medium-term volatile upward trend.
2. Judging from its html January monthly line , the bottom area of the monthly line level of the oil index has basically taken shape. Since this year's Spring Festival holiday, I have written a total of five articles about China Petroleum and the oil index. Each time I say that the mid-term bottom of the index is being constructed. The monthly line mid-positive line in September last year can basically be said to be its bottom that has been found. The entire oil index has taken a step up at the monthly level. It has fluctuated between 700-800 points of the oil index for a whole year. In other words, below 700 points is its historical bottom, and we are currently waiting for the 20-month line to move up.
Third, the oil sector is currently an unpopular sector in A-share market. No matter how international oil prices fluctuate, the upward trend of the oil index has not been affected. The reason why it is unpopular is that institutional analysts do not say it, and even with contempt and disdain. It is understandable that institutional analysts do not say it, because they are still in the stage of collecting chips. The big Vs do not say it, but reflect their nature of being eager for quick success and instant benefits and pretending to understand it if they don’t know. As retail investors, we must recognize the objective trend of the stock market and accurately grasp the opportunity.
4. From the daily trend analysis of the oil index, after passing a long negative line last week, the sideways trend was basically maintained in the last four trading days, and the index remained above 740 points. During the same period, the market index continued to fall, and technical indicators began to have a trend of upward closing, such as KDJ, CCI, MTM and other indicators. If the market opens low after the holiday, the downward space of the index is limited, and there will be support at 730 points.
From the above monthly line analysis conclusion, it can be seen that the index has little downward space, and it can predict the sideways trend of last four trading days, which is a platform for rebound after the holiday.
Second, let’s briefly talk about the basic situation of the oil sector.
First, everyone knows that oil is an important strategic resource for the operation of the national economy. Its role and prospects are currently irreplaceable. The demand for oil and petroleum products in all aspects can only increase without decreasing, which is beyond doubt.
Second, the A-share market has a very contradictory understanding of the oil sector. All this originated from the fact that China Petroleum opened at at 48.62 yuan per share in December 2007, and its listing was at its peak. In the following 14 years, it was in a long-term downward trend, and it hit a historical low of 4.05 yuan in March 2021, making people who had no good feelings for it even more disappointed with it. Who would believe that China Petroleum would have a market trend? It is also at this time that changes may happen.
Third, as a super large-cap stock of A-shares, when the A-share market value had not reached the current 80 trillion yuan in the early stage, China Petroleum became the protective umbrella for the main capital shipment. At the end of the market, in order to stabilize the index and sell better, China Petroleum became the main control tool. Just like the current securities sector, it has become the main force for to hedge against 's main capital to escape and impact the market. To put it bluntly: it is to cover the main capital shipment, which makes small and medium-sized investors more hostile to it.
Fourth, in view of the above reasons, the reputation of the oil sector is not good in A-shares, but I just want to say one thing, this is exactly the result that the current market main players want, please take a closer look.
To sum up, everyone should pay attention to the trends of the oil sector after the holiday and in the medium term. Whether it can become the mainstay of A-shares needs to be observed, but in terms of technical trends, some conditions are met. As a retail investor, when you are busy chasing hot spots all day long, it is better to calm down and carefully study those unpopular sectors that are not favored by people. For example, the oil sector is so important for economic development. The main players of A-shares do not pay attention to it, and I don’t believe it. Having said that, it is most important to remain calm and cautious under the premise that the market trend is unknown.
(The above are personal opinions and are for reference only. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market)
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