Recently, many institutions and self-media have expressed their opinions, believing that A-shares are now in the bottom range and are worth buying. But the stock market not only did not rise, but continued to fall.

Recently, many institutions and self-media are expressing their opinions, believing that A shares are in the bottom range and are worth buying.

But the stock market not only did not rise, but instead kept falling.

has deep meaning behind this phenomenon! Let's break down the reasons.

1. What happens if housing prices start to fall?

This year, local governments have relaxed their real estate policies, and some cities have even used their big moves. But even so, housing prices seem to fall instead of rising!

The house price is cheap, so there should be more people buying it! But real estate sales have also been shrinking.

Why doesn’t it work in real estate if you make small profits and sell too much? Aren’t houses still those houses?

The reason is very simple, because everyone thinks that the house will fall. And in recent months, it has indeed confirmed that housing prices are falling.

Then everyone will definitely wait and see. If house prices fall by 5%, it may save the cost of a car.

When will everyone rush to buy a house? That must be when housing prices soar!

In 2000, when I bought a house worth tens of thousands of yuan, why didn’t I see anyone grab it? At that time, if you told people that the house would increase by 10 times in the future, you would probably be ridiculed for being a brain problem.

is funny, When the housing prices rise to the point where everyone can’t afford it, everyone is crazy and trying their best to buy a house.

By the same token, we boldly assume that housing prices have begun to plummet and have fallen to the floor price, and probably not many people will dare to buy it. What everyone may think about at that time is: Real estate is over and housing prices will never rise.

In fact, The fluctuations in real estate and stock prices are exactly the same , but the fluctuation cycle of housing prices is 20 years and the stock price is about 3 years.

2. Look long but don’t go long

Now people in the stock market are divided into two categories:

. One is really afraid and dare not buy it. I believe that the global crisis is about to break out and the stock price cannot rise.

Another type is that you know that it is the bottom area now, and you also know in your heart that you should buy it now, but you just don’t buy it.

is easy to understand for the first type of people. What kind of medicine do this second type of people sell in the gourd?

We can imagine such a picture where 10 hyena besiege a lion. At this time, the lion was exhausted. Any hyena could kill the lion as long as it attacked again.

But they look at me and I look at you, but no one dares to go up, afraid that what if this lion looks back and shoots himself to death? So 10 hyenas surrounded the lion and stared at it. This is called watch .

Wait until the lion loses too much blood, or the wound is infected and inflamed, and is dying, the first dog among them will rush forward and bite.

This is the case in A-shares now. Professional investors know that A-shares are about to die, but no one wants to rush in first. What if there is another sharp drop after taking action?

So he surrounded the A-shares and waited for it to die.

In other words, knowing that you should buy it now is not buying it. This is called looking long but not doing long. This is true in the bottom area of ​​every bear market.

But now the A-share market is already very light. You only need a small amount of funds to rush in and you can pull out three positive lines. These three yang lines appear, and others will attack them together. Next is a wave of huge profits!

So, a typical phenomenon we see on A-shares is that many institutions have expressed their opinions that it is the time to buy, but the transaction volume is still very light (indicating that there are very few buying).

Everyone was saying in their hearts: Go and buy it, I will buy it if you buy it!

Of course, Don’t think they can buy it in the moment when they die in A-shares. Most of them will buy it at the end of violent recovery of A-shares.

3. How long will the onlookers last?

When the trading volume is sluggish, it is the beginning of watching the market.

We often say that volume is ahead of , which means that after the trading volume continues to be sluggish, the stock market bottoms out sooner.But it is impossible to predict which day it will come to bottom.

We can review the time difference between land prices and land volumes every year from 2012 to 2022, see the figure below.

From the figure, we can see that the time difference between land price and land volume is usually within 1-3 months.

But it does not necessarily mean that the land volume appears before the land price. On the contrary, is more often the land price first and then the lowest value of the transaction volume appears. (year in the red box)

For this year, if Shanghai Composite Index no longer falls below 2886 points in the future, then the land price first appears and the land volume appears later.

If it falls below 2886 points in the future, it may be that the land volume first appears and the land price later.

4 It has been 5 months since April 26th. According to the rules presented by historical data (land volume and land price are 1-3 months apart), it may fall below the April point.

Actually, we don’t have to worry about whether it will fall below the bottom area anyway. Looking back three to five years later, it is actually a little more expensive or cheaper to buy, which will not have that much impact on returns.

In short, after watching the market, the good news will not be far away. Watching means no one cares about it, and mature investors should buy in the place where no one cares about it, and sell it when people are in the midst of the crowd.

4. Summary

Why do many people know that it is the bottom now, but it just doesn’t rise?

Because everyone is watching long but not long, they are watching, waiting for others to take action first!

After all, from the perspective of human nature, it feels even more uncomfortable to encounter a decline after buying. Everyone hopes that it will keep rising after buying!

, but every time a bear turns into a cow, most people miss it.

When the trading volume continues to sluggish, it means that the onlookers have appeared. Once the market appears, the time for the reversal is not far from the time of reversal.

We should pay special attention to that the ground quantity usually lags behind the land price. In other words, When you see the ground quantity, it is very likely that the reversal has already occurred!

"Ground quantity sees land price" does not mean to accurately predict the market. Behind it is more whether we believe in the bad luck and the power of the cycle!

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