Today is October 3, 2022, and it is operating normally during the National Day holiday. We also give a summary of the current oil market. The third quarter of 2022 has ended. As of now, the average price of 92# gasoline in South China in the first three quarters was 9313 yuan/ton, up 1,554 yuan/ton from the same period in 2021, an increase of 20.03%; the average price of 0# diesel was 8,593 yuan/ton, up 2,108 yuan/ton from the same period in 2021, an increase of 32.51%. The gasoline and diesel prices both rose significantly compared with the same period last year. Let’s review the market changes in South China in the first three quarters.
html November-March, due to geopolitical factors, international crude oil prices rose strongly. Brent crude oil price rose from US$80 per barrel in early January to US$127 per barrel in early March, up US$43 per barrel, an increase of 54%. The gasoline and diesel prices in South China showed a downward trend after rising, among which the price of 92# gasoline rose from 7915 yuan/ton in early January to 10489 yuan/ton in early March, up 2574 yuan/ton, up 32.52%; the price of 0# diesel rose from 7671 in early January to 8701 yuan/ton in early March, up 1030 yuan/ton, up 13.43%.
html From the end of November to the beginning of February, some domestic refineries were restricted by the Winter Olympics and Paralympics. The operating rate dropped from 66.26% in early January to 54.76% in early February, a decrease of 11.5%. The decline in the operating rate caused the total gasoline and diesel production of refineries to fall from 2.7584 million tons in early January to 2.5286 million tons in early February, a decrease of 229,800 tons, a decrease of 9.09%. At this time, the middle and lower reaches of South China are also preparing for the holiday, demand for gasoline and diesel is improving, and prices have begun to continue to rise. In early March, international crude oil rose to a high level and then fell back. Then from late March to early April, international crude oil fluctuated widely, and gasoline and diesel prices in South China showed a volatile downward trend due to the impact of public health incidents.
html From April to June, international crude oil fluctuated widely at high levels, and the gasoline and diesel prices in South China showed a volatile trend after falling. Among them, on April 1, the price of 92# gasoline in South China was 9657 yuan/ton, and the price of 0# diesel was 8700 yuan/ton; as of June 30, the price of 92# gasoline in South China was 9478 yuan/ton, down 179 yuan/ton from April 1, a decrease of 1.85%; the price of 0# diesel was 8804 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from April 1, an increase of 0.33%. From April to June, the South China region was affected by the public health incident and the rainy season, gasoline demand was suppressed and gasoline prices fell; while diesel was supported by urgent demand, with strong resistance to declines and relatively strong prices.
html From July to September, international crude oil fluctuated downward, and gasoline and diesel prices in South China rose and fell. Among them, in July, the price of gasoline and diesel in South China showed a downward trend. As of July 28, the average price of gasoline in South China was 8,728 yuan/ton, the average price of diesel was 8,163 yuan/ton, and the price of gasoline and diesel was the lowest since March. Since August 1, due to the emergencies, the price of gasoline and diesel in South China began to rise. On August 3, the price of gasoline rose to 9,038 yuan/ton, an increase of 310 yuan/ton from the end of July, an increase of 3.55%. The price of diesel rose to 8,769 yuan/ton, an increase of 606 yuan/ton from the end of July, an increase of 7.42%.
html From early August to early September, the northern refineries were affected by the policy and the operating rate decreased, resulting in the rising prices of northern refineries. In addition, the main external procurement costs were relatively high, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in South China rose. Among them, diesel has increased significantly, and even the same price of gasoline and diesel has occurred. Mainly because in the past month, diesel resources in South China have been tight, and the market has a strong willingness to uphold diesel prices, which has led to diesel rising to wholesale price limits and relatively firm prices; and gasoline has been affected by the public health incident, and the retail price expectations have been lowered at 24:00 on September 21, and the middle and lower reaches are waiting for price adjustments to replenish the goods. The market demand is weak, resulting in gasoline price reductions many times, so the gasoline and diesel price difference in South China narrows and even shows the same price.
Overall, gasoline and diesel prices in South China were running at a high level in the first three quarters of 2022. However, the consumption of gasoline and diesel has declined this year, mainly due to the impact of high oil prices and public health incidents this year, coupled with the impact of new energy vehicles, gasoline consumption has declined; in terms of diesel, supported by high costs, diesel prices hit the high level, and the overall operation of engineering, infrastructure and logistics is not as expected, so diesel consumption has also declined.
learned from the market that the fifth batch of refined oil and low-sulfur ship fuel export quotas will be issued in 2022, and the total amount of refined oil and low-sulfur ship fuel quotas will be 15 million tons.After the issuance of this quota, the cumulative export quota of refined oil in 2022 will be 37.25 million tons, which is equivalent to the 37.61 million tons in 2021. Once this news comes out, it may bring certain positive support to the refined oil market in the short term, but it will eventually return to demand as the dominant position. Based on comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel in South China may have an upward trend in the short term.
Finally, the author will take you to see the latest gasoline retail prices of 92 and 95 gasoline after adjustments in the latest gasoline station. This is also the retail price of various varieties of gasoline and diesel in 31 provinces and cities across the country today. The following prices are for reference only. Please refer to the actual transactions of local gas stations.
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