Zidao|Column introduction: Focus on observation, analysis and value investment advice on the global economy, investment targets and international situation. With the three consecutive years of epidemics and the arrival of a global economic crisis, even the return of the US dollar

号｜Column introduction: Focus on observation, analysis and value investment advice on the real-life global economy, investment targets and international situation.

The epidemic has been superimposed on the global economic crisis for three consecutive years, and even the return of the US dollar cannot stabilize the US stock market? Why did the dollar index rise sharply and break through 110, 115 and even catch up with 120, and it shows that a large amount of US dollars flowed back to the US ... But why is the US stock market still a bear?

The US stock market has been falling for nine consecutive months,

, After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the bank interest rate reached 4% of 4%. This is almost the number one among the major economies in the world! For example, after the profits of Apple 's global branches returned to the United States, after depositing $10 billion, they would have a interest income of $400 billion. Why not do it? Yes, even after all the profits from all over the world are taken back and converted into US dollars, they will not be reinvested during the economic downturn cycle, let alone invest in the stock market.

The median interest rate of US banks

. 's funds flowing back to the United States are mainly "safety-averse demand for preservation", because the US dollar index rose sharply after the Fed's interest rate hike, and most of the world's major currencies depreciated against the US dollar this year, and even the RMB has depreciated by about 13% in total ! Therefore, the operating profits of some international companies, bank deposits of international investment funds or family funds will convert other currencies in the account into US dollars without hesitation! Therefore, for these safe-haven funds, they do not necessarily need to enter the United States to invest in US dollar assets. They only need to convert them into US dollar cash deposits to ensure their financial security and obtain high interest income from US dollar deposits!

, In fact, the annualized returns of most stock market investments are less than 10%, and it is normal to even lose money! Compared with the fear of less than 10% return, isn’t it more satisfying to keep An An in the bank and get 4-5% interest income?

Some people also say that since investing in stocks is unstable. So why not invest in US real estate? I’m sorry! The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike directly led to a surge in housing interest rates, which has directly narrowed potential housing consumption and investment demand. Therefore, investing in real estate at this time can only bring investment losses but not overflow!

soaring US mortgage rate

, the US inflation rate is as high as 10%, making economists and the general public generally have pessimistic expectations for economic decline and the decline in profits of listed companies! Also means that the expected profits of listed companies will decline, and coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the expectation of a bear market will be further strengthened. In this way, there are even fewer organizations or individuals who dare to take over and invest in a bear market!

Last and most core element!

On the one hand, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the Central Asian Middle East crisis created by the United States in order to cooperate with the US dollar interest rate hike cycle have led to chaos in the global order. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has lasted for almost three years and it will be very harmful to the global economy. Many ordinary people no longer have the ability to consume...

These basic backgrounds have led to people's pessimistic expectations of the possible occurrence of global economic crisis or even global wars. So, what is the best way for a business or individual to deal with a crisis? Cash is king!

Based on the basic logic described above, we can probably expect that the future recovery of the US stock market and economy will be after the following conditions are expected to be realized!

, the inflation pressure in the United States has been released to a certain extent, the Federal Reserve has begun to stop hiking interest rates in and instead adopt neutral interest rate measures! At this time, the currency circulation of on the US market will be stable to a certain extent.

. After the global order crisis subsides or the crisis has eased and eased, the actual prices of various high-quality assets in the United States are generally "expected to be confirmed" at the bottom, which will greatly reduce the risk of stock market investment and the stock market yield will rise significantly! At this time, the US dollar funds will slowly be guided to flow to various assets, including stock market targets!

, which can usher in a new round of active stock market investment period!

summarizes it in one sentence! In the economic downward cycle where capital costs are rapidly pushed up, any investment behavior is too expensive, and it must be that the weak asset bidding intensity leads to long-term fluctuations in asset prices or even a high probability of falling, resulting in investment impairment losses!

Notes | Original articles from Genping Sanren, please do not reprint, publish or plagiarize without my consent.