has three working days left before the 19th oil price adjustment of the year. It can be said that the countdown has begun. Like most oil price adjustments in the second half of the year, oil prices are facing another drop, because the current price adjustment amount has dropped to 120 yuan/ton. At the same time, crude oil prices fell on Friday. The price adjustment amount may continue to expand the decline in the next working day, which will affect whether the price of No. 92 gasoline can fall back to 7 yuan as expected.
Because the National Day holiday is approaching, the oil price statistics remain on the 7th working day, showing that the price adjustment amount has dropped by 120 yuan/ton (0.1-0.11 yuan/liter). Based on this decline, the price of No. 92 gasoline is still a bit short of falling back to the 7 yuan range. On September 21, the 18th oil price adjustment in the year was started, and the average price of No. 92 gasoline was also lowered to 8.26 yuan/liter.
is obvious. If the average price of No. 92 gasoline wants to return to 7 yuan, it has to be lowered by another 0.27 yuan before, which is about 330 yuan/ton, which is more than 200 yuan/ton higher than the current decline. It is unlikely to be realized in the past, because there are few examples of a drop of 200 yuan/ton in three working days.
However, the specific time for the oil price adjustment to start is October 10. During this period, crude oil prices will be trading for 5 days. There may be a relatively large margin of crude oil prices, so the price adjustment amount may also change significantly
At the same time, October 8th to 9th is the weekend time. In the past similar situations, the change in the adjustment amount is extremely limited. Therefore, after the end of the National Day, we will have a clearer judgment on whether the average price of No. 92 gasoline can return to 7 yuan. The rest depends on the performance of the crude oil price.
In this way, the perspective will inevitably be shifted to the next ministerial meeting of OPEC. The OPEC Secretariat said yesterday that the OPEC+ coalition of ministers and members of the organization will hold a face-to-face meeting in Vienna on October 5, the first time since early 2020.
Several representatives said this week that OPEC+ will consider cutting production targets for the second consecutive time when meeting next week as strong inflation rates and a strong dollar may erode demand. Since the last production cut was officially lifted in August, the organization has only made symbolic adjustments (reducing production target by 100,000 barrels per day in September). According to market expectations, this production cut may be between 500,000-1 million barrels per day.
Several other OPEC+ member states have long had the problem of insufficient production. These member states have been affected by Western sanctions, destruction, insufficient investment and decline in production capacity, resulting in OPEC+'s daily output in August below the quota of 3.58 million barrels.
However, market intelligence firm Kpler said on Friday that OPEC crude oil production increased by 350,000 barrels per day to 28.89 million barrels in September, driven by increased production of Libya , Nigeria and Saudi Arabia .
But RBC Capital Markets analyst Tran said that although the crude oil market also has support factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, the possible reduction of OPEC+, and the still tight supply, the market is still concerned about the most at this stage, the Fed's Fed and the rate hike measures of the central bank of major countries, which may eventually cause an economic recession.
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