htmlPrince price trend of China's coking coal in September 19
In September 2022, the price of coking coal in China fell first and then rose. At the end of the month, Tangshan after tax delivery price rose by 110 yuan month-on-month, and the equivalent of China to foulement price fell by US$3.53. With the depreciation of the RMB, the price of China's coking coal in this month has basically not changed, and the domestic price rose slightly by 100 yuan, which is related to the release cycle of Platts on Wednesday.
Przes Shanxi's first-tier main coke car panel monthly average price trend
In September 2022, the average price of Shanxi's first-tier main coke car panel was 2710 yuan, which was higher than 1,507 yuan in 2019 and 1,290 yuan in 2020, and less than 4,235 yuan in 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the average price of car boards in September 2022 rose by 100 yuan compared with the average price in August.
compare prices of Shanxi's main coke and Australia's first-tier main coke
As of September 28, 2022, the price difference between the port long-term contract price of Australia's first-tier main coking coal port main coking coal and Shanxi's local main coking coal was US$8.37, equivalent to RMB 67 (month-on-month price weekly difference of 88 yuan. Judging from the weekly data from January 2021 to September 2022, the price difference between Shanxi's local main coking coal and Australia's first-tier main coking coal is US$65.7 (September 8, 2021), with a minimum of 0.29 (2021 On September 15, 2018, the average price difference of USD was -6.8 USD.
January performance - Comparison of monthly prices on September 1 and September 30
compared with early September, the price of CFR of the first-tier main coking coal rose by USD 31, and the price of CFR of the second-tier main coking coal rose by USD 20. In September, the first-tier imported coking coal rose by more than the second-tier, and the price of "good coal" on the market performed better.
annual performance - —Comparison of monthly prices on January 1 and September 30
compared with the beginning of the year, the price of CFR of the first-tier main coking coal fell by US$29.5, and the price of CFR of the second-tier main coking coal fell by US$42.5, and the annual price difference converged. The monthly change of net return value to China
FOB to China net return value
9 month FOB average price and average price price difference between China net return value, Shrinking from US$27.94 in August 2022 to US$11.27 in September, a decrease of US$16.68. The current profit of international coking coal exports to China has shrunk, and the willingness to export imported coking coal to China market has decreased.
016-2022 monthly average price (horizontal) line chart
monthly average price in September 2022, and the average price of CFR in China has risen by US$8.49 month-on-month , In September 2022, the average monthly price of the first-line main focus FOB and CFR increased overall, and the FOB increase was significantly higher than that of China's CFR.
015-2022 monthly average price (vertical) columnar comparison chart
l1 has a total of 82 months of average first-line main coking coal price for 82 months from December 2015 to September 2022. In September 2022 (US$295.88), it was higher than in 2019 (US$162.67) and in 2020 (US$133.97) and was lower than in 2021 (US$533.44), ranking the highest in the same period in the past eight years, but the average price was the lowest monthly average price in 2022.
Comprehensive review
html Imported coking coal in September:
html Imported coking coal market in September finally ended (China CFR) for four consecutive months (FOB is less than one month, starting in May, but the decline in June can be said to be a "fracture"). The average price of coking coal finally rebounded this month, although the rebound strength was minimal.
Australian coking coal has only been held by India after "losing" Chinese customers (India's steel consumption in August increased by 13% year-on-year to 9.3 million tons.), but the Indian monsoon from June to September caused weak demand in India, which is still affected. The good news is that the demand in India has improved significantly in September, and the expectations in October are stronger. For the Chinese market, coking coal prices in other regions are much lower in cost-effectiveness. On September 30, the price of Canadian high-quality coking coal CFR (V: 26.8%, A: 8.8%) is US$308, and the price difference with Australia's first-tier FOB reached US$27.5, which does not consider the exchange rate factor.What's more, domestic steel mill demand has just recovered, and domestic coking coal supply is still at a high level. The "Golden Jiu" coal-coking steel market did not show seasonal demand for how big coking coal is, but instead it fell after the market plummeted in July and August.
But as far as the domestic coking coal market was concerned, domestic coking coal demand in September did not grow in a straight line, and the market also experienced confusion and hovering in the middle of the market. Especially under the influence of severe weather such as the Chinese typhoon, steel demand continued to fluctuate, and market sentiment could not withstand the slightest turbulence, causing violent price fluctuations.
Overall, the market rebound in September was not an unexpected situation. Judging from the September period in previous years, the coking coal market began to recover or even rose sharply at this time. However, due to the continued sluggish demand in the second quarter and the market confidence was set, the mainstream institutions still have a lot of pessimism. However, according to the results, "September is an undervalued September."
For October
Here are six personal reference points:
- International market demand may have room for upward. India's monsoon weather is gradually over, and a wave of coking coal orders may usher in. The price increase is limited, but the transaction volume is better than in September.
- 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 International macro demand is still affecting the Chinese market in reverse. The most direct impact in the short term is the current exchange rate plummeting. The extent of changes in international coking coal cannot be viewed the same as before. Canada mainly focuses on long-term cooperation, US coal spot prices fluctuate violently, and the market has not seen a surge, so there is limited room for incremental growth.
- 10 coking coal price starting point is not high. According to the after-tax transaction prices of Shanxi first-line main coke to Tangshan in 2022, the domestic coking coal in September was the lowest price in 2022 (the lowest price of 2,385 yuan), and the month-on-month increase in spot in September was between 150-300 yuan. It can also be said that the current price is the lowest price level for the whole year.
- In fact, domestic coal mines can no longer increase their production. does not talk about large-scale conferences to limit production. In the long run, domestic coal mines continued to operate at high levels in the first three quarters, and the continuous high-intensity production results have emerged - coal mine accidents occur frequently. In fact, domestic coal mines can no longer increase production, and production restrictions may be a necessity.
- domestic market confidence is limited. Domestic demand recovery is still under observation by most institutions, confidence still needs to be firmly practiced, and domestic macro support still needs to be verified.
- steel plant raw material inventory has reached its lowest level after adjustment in the past few months.
Simply put, the coking coal market in October is a turning point. Either a wave of the highest price for the whole year, or it will be the highest in the next few months. What do customers think?
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