Faced with a high inflation that continued to exceed 8%, the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates again hikes hikes again, and the global capital market is hit again. Due to the market's concerns about the future economic prospects, the US stock itself also suffered huge losses.
Global currency under USD hike
Since this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates many times, the dollar index continues to strengthen, and other currencies inevitably depreciate. The euro, pound, yen and South Korean won all depreciated one after another. The exchange rate of pound 1 has fallen by more than 20% in 2 years, and the euro has also fallen to a low of 20 years. In the first half of this year, the euro depreciated by more than 12%.
Among them, the Japanese yen exchange rate depreciated significantly, and the Japanese yen exchange rate against the US dollar has hit a new low in 20 years. Last month, the Japanese yen exchange rate depreciated again after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates . Due to the continued depreciation of the exchange rate, Japan's GDP may return to its level 30 years ago. According to the current exchange rate, Japan's GDP this year will be less than US$4 trillion.
In addition, the RMB exchange rate exceeded 7, but the RMB only depreciated relative to the US dollar, and was in a state of appreciation for currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen.
USD international payments rose to 42.63%
On September 22, the Global Interbank Financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) released its latest report. In August this year, the proportion of USD in international payments was 42.63%, compared with 38.9% in the same period last year, an increase of 3.73 percentage points, ranking first.
USD rose, but the euro fell. Data shows that the euro accounted for 34.5% of international payments in August this year, compared with more than 36% in the same period last year.
EU countries are highly dependent on Russia's energy, especially 40% of natural gas must be imported from Russia. However, due to the impact since March this year, the EU's energy prices have continued to rise and the energy supply is insufficient. The market expressed concerns about the European energy and economic prospects, and investors gradually gave up the euro and chose other safe-haven currencies.
This has led to a significant decline in the proportion of euro payments, and the euro has depreciated significantly this year. As the world's second largest payment currency, the euro was originally the only currency that can challenge the status of the US dollar, but it is difficult in terms of the current situation of the euro.
According to data released by SWIFT, the proportion of payments in pound in August was 6.45%, ranking third in the world. The depreciation of the pound has been very large since the beginning of this year; the proportion of international payments in the yen in August was 2.73%, ranking fourth in the world; the proportion of payments in RMB in August was 2.31%, ranking fifth in the world.
"De-dollarization" is imperative
Globally suffering US dollars, long time! Since the birth of the euro, it has been highly expected to achieve de-dollarization. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis immediately came, and the euro was hit. The EU's GDP had already surpassed the United States, and the euro continued to strengthen, but in just a few years, the US GDP surpassed the EU again and the euro depreciated.
Russia has been "de-dollarization". As early as 2014, it continued to sell its holdings of 100 billion US bonds , almost about to "clear up". The Russian Central Bank has also continuously reduced the proportion of the US dollar and significantly increased the proportion of the RMB. These are real actions of de-dollarization. However, from a global perspective, the proportion of this de-dollarization is very low and it is difficult to shake the US dollar's status.
Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates many times, which will be another sack of world wealth. Each rate hike of the US dollar will cause the return of the US dollar to flow back to the United States on a global scale, pushing the US dollar index to strengthen, the US dollar appreciates, other currencies depreciate, and economies with insufficient foreign exchange reserves and poor risk resistance are facing the reality of wealth being harvested by the US dollar.
However, the global status of the US dollar has begun to decline. In the past few decades, the US dollar has established a global monetary system and has been supported by the credit system until now. However, now that the US Treasury bond has exceeded US$31 trillion, the new round of interest rate hikes in the US has posed risks to the global economy. The United States has once again consumed its own credit, which will inevitably lead to the collapse of the US dollar's credit system in the long run, but this process is long.
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